Posted:
#501
primetime
i agree no way these off the radar games should see anything this early really???? wtf
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TUESDAYS SHARPS$$$$$$$
Posted:
#509
guys a LOT of mismatches all over CBB and NBA. you all mention the Wichita State game and when the line increases like this its to sway people OFF of Wichita State, which is the correct side.
The high lines on teams like Ohio State and Kentucky have too little value for someone like me. I would like to see Ohio State crush another team before laying that type of chalk. I think when you have a mismatch and the spread is close to 20 points, you have a good chance to cover the spread. The substitutes come in late and even though OSU will certainly have a big lead, it will probably boil down to how effectively the bench can score. On the other hand, OSU has had quite a few mismatches so the bench has gotten some time and I think anything LESS than 20 points would be a play in my book.
The team that i think has the best chance of covering an inflated line is Butler. I think that Penn will be hard pressed to score more than 45 points meaning Butler needs to get around the 60 point mark to cover. Their defense is suffocating so its not like Penn will be able to score either half. I would definitely ride Butler in the first half of this game.
Finally, I just can't see UAB not demolishing Georgia Southern tonight. It's a no brainer as UAB avgs about 80 points at home and Georgia Southern about 55 on the road. I would play that discrepancy just on principle.
In the NBA, poor Brooklyn takes its struggles to OKC. You have one team that can't score versus another that can't stop scoring. Yes I know its the NBA but this is a serious mismatch if you look at the positions and style of play. Westbrook vs. Wiliams is interesting but aside from that OKC has MAJOR advantages across the board, including the SECOND UNIT 
.
.Also, the SA Spurs are in Milwaukee where they perennially dont' do well. I think that is the reason for a shorter line. They will win and cover this game imo. They are far better than Milwaukee and will be able to score enough that the Bucks are out of reach.
Lastly, UTAH returns home to play the TWolves with a short line. While this game is pretty even in nature, this is a spot where I think that the Jazz are motivated to get a W and the short line should not be a concern. I don't see a blowout here but I do see the Jazz continuing their home dominance over the TWolves.
As for the Sugar Bowl, I really like the OVER in the game. I think that the running attack of Florida will be too much for Louisville though I do believe that Louisville will compete and put up points themselves. I would personally like to see Louisville cover and there is nothing that shows they cannot. Special teams are also sound on both teams though the Florida kicker is not real good so that may lead to more 4th down conversions for Florida which in the end could mean more 7 points versus 3 points.
POOL, your thoughts?
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Posted:
#512
Pool or LA, what do you make of the Creighton/Ill St. line? Saw it at 2.5 to start the day, my book now has it at a pk.... Public hammering creighton.
Same thing happening in Tulsa/Buffalo except even more of the public is on tulsa than creighton.
BOL & Happy New Year to everyone that helps make this the best thread on covers.
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Posted:
#513
LA
brother i have to stay away from the nba and wager 100%entirely from your suggestions (which have been incredible ) 
to say the least . i saw the uab descrepancy as you mentioned i agree the total looks juicey on the bowl game seems your nba is spot on other then as we all certainly understand anything can happen i agree with high chalk favs i typically stay away purely as you implied they bring in the bench and coast great to have you chime in brother i love your word chime its a catchy new saying
thanks brother much appreciated im sure im speaking for all of us
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Posted:
#520
Poolman, I've only been on Covers for a few years and don't post much, but I've followed your plays and research and respect your opinion and all of the work you put into your picks. Thanks for sharing and keep up the great work! Happy New Year and best of luck to everyone! Hope it's a great year for all!
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Posted:
#522
Quote Originally Posted by LAGameofInches:
POOL good to see you back. Yesterday was a fantastic day. Had a line discrepancy in the Wisconsin game and it turned out right on. The halftime line was listed at 3 but the game line at 4. Thus the game line should have been 6. In the end they pushed the half and lost the game by 6 not covering. But I really thought Wisconsin had the win and was the right side as they had Stanford where they wanted them. All they had to do was drive the field but unfortunately the qb threw a wretched INT. Unfortunately that's the game that people wager on.
Had no angle on the late game but its hard when you're not here because I don't feel comfortable when people just follow me even though I was right on most things yesterday. I came in here to give insights and help everyone but its better when you all digest the information and decide which plays warrant your following to wager on. Just being honest and I hope you appreciate that. Luckily there were quite a few winning propositions yesterday so everyone did well.
POOL good to see you back. Yesterday was a fantastic day. Had a line discrepancy in the Wisconsin game and it turned out right on. The halftime line was listed at 3 but the game line at 4. Thus the game line should have been 6. In the end they pushed the half and lost the game by 6 not covering. But I really thought Wisconsin had the win and was the right side as they had Stanford where they wanted them. All they had to do was drive the field but unfortunately the qb threw a wretched INT. Unfortunately that's the game that people wager on.
Had no angle on the late game but its hard when you're not here because I don't feel comfortable when people just follow me even though I was right on most things yesterday. I came in here to give insights and help everyone but its better when you all digest the information and decide which plays warrant your following to wager on. Just being honest and I hope you appreciate that. Luckily there were quite a few winning propositions yesterday so everyone did well.
LA, Pool, Philly, Kentucky, BYP, and Tied-up,
I have a curious "line discrepancy" that occurred with the Wisky/Stanford game and I'd like your theory as to why this occurred, if you have a second to offer your thoughts, please.
I use a local and it's done online. The line all day was 7, all the way up to game time. Everywhere else I looked it was between 3 and 4. I liked Wisky to win or at least cover the +4 for my own reasons and those mentioned by LA, But that crazy discrepancy scared me off a "max-bet." I didn't want to add to the chaos on this thread yesterday and win or loose I've planned to pose this situation to you boys today. BTW THE SAME THING HAPPENED WITH THE GEORGIA TECH GAME and I thought it was a fluke - there it was about a 3.5 point discrepancy in favor of GT. I'd love your thoughts and wouldn't mind sharing if I see something like this happen again in the future before kickoff or tip. Thanks in advance.
Best of luck and regards,
T
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Posted:
#525
Quote Originally Posted by trbolger:
LA, Pool, Philly, Kentucky, BYP, and Tied-up,
I have a curious "line discrepancy" that occurred with the Wisky/Stanford game and I'd like your theory as to why this occurred, if you have a second to offer your thoughts, please.
I use a local and it's done online. The line all day was 7, all the way up to game time. Everywhere else I looked it was between 3 and 4. I liked Wisky to win or at least cover the +4 for my own reasons and those mentioned by LA, But that crazy discrepancy scared me off a "max-bet." I didn't want to add to the chaos on this thread yesterday and win or loose I've planned to pose this situation to you boys today. BTW THE SAME THING HAPPENED WITH THE GEORGIA TECH GAME and I thought it was a fluke - there it was about a 3.5 point discrepancy in favor of GT. I'd love your thoughts and wouldn't mind sharing if I see something like this happen again in the future before kickoff or tip. Thanks in advance.
Best of luck and regards,
T
Sorry I have no clue about line movements unless someone is hurt. You have to let poolman or LA respond to that I think.
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