Sucker Bets

there are several huge sucker bets on the board this week IMO.

- Boise -7 (we all know chuckie keaton is out, their backup didn't look top hot against BYU.   You would think maybe Utah St. would be getting more than 7, squares going to be all over boise here )

- A&M -7 (you mean to tell me i get johnny fuuckin football against the mississippi team that just lost to Auburn and laid an egg at Bama and i only have to lay 6.5?  )

- NW +10 (i get the ranked team who almost beat OSU against Stave who isn't a good thrower and you're going to give me 10?  )

- Mich -3 (perception is that mich is better than PSU, seems too easy to just take mich to win by a field goal )


of course my reaction to these lines is

the problem is, i'm not sure i have the balls to go against any of these (yet).  going to need to dig deeper.


  


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I disagree with A&M -7. I think that will be easy money even though TAM defense is bad it won't matter.

Jim, so you like A&M right?   ride johnny football only laying 6.5? 

Abizzo, very good scouting here couldn't agree more.  Don't overthink just close your eyes and pull the trigger on all 3.

I agree on all but Mich. After almost lising to UConn & Akron, they dont deserve to be favored at all. If PSU beat Indy this line is a pick em.....

haha, all 4.  I've got 3, excluding NW.  While I agree lines seem too good to be true, Vegas isn't stupid, blah blah blah.  I still think of the picks you listed above, they'll be 3-1.

i hear you train, problem is they got blown out by Indiana...

So if these games all cover or go 3-1 are they still "sucker bets" in your opinion ?

I thought Keeton's backup looked better than Keeton last week.  He had better passing and rushing numbers.

Train
All do respect I believe the game of year line on michigan pen. State was right aroun where it is not a pick em.. Last weeks loss had little to do with this line according to the game of yet lines prior to season!

We all know I'm a die hard michigan fan but this line is very suspicious I agree penn state is the sharp play when u think bout it. But then again michigan is an enigma and could win by 2 tds!

Stay away or play total is probably best play!

-3. Michigan has way more depth and jake Ryan the eat defender last 2 seasons may be back! I would be very careful betting this game!

Alabama had a tough time two or three years ago before their depth took over in the end!

U nailed it bro esp that PSU line suckers already pounding michigan

My BAMA reference was when they played at penn state

The Boise line is adjusted 12 points due to Chuckie injury, and it is still getting pounded.  The two games last week that looked like sucker plays, but won both had major injury concerns (Miami and LSU).

The other three are huge public play sucker bets.  Doesn't mean they won't win, but if you play those kind of plays consistently you will lose your role this time of year.   Trust me, I know from too much experience

Please, just replace aTm with georgia, UM with PSU, and NW with Tx st, and you have some of last weeks sucker bets (along with ECU, UCF - losers - and UCLA and OHst, wicked lucky winners)

Lots of games this weekend, choose others but I'd be shocked to see these plays go over .500 this weekend: UCLA, Michigan, Stanford, aTm, BYU, NW, Clemson, Neb, Missouri, Louisville.

Good discussion - might get some value out of this thread....

I don't get the TAMU thing at all.  Ole Miss sucks because they lost on the road to two teams that have combined to win the last three national titles?  Lunacy.

I agree with the Michigan -3...that seems to me to be too low...lots of action wanted on Michigan in that one.

TAMU only -6.5....I don't know about that one.  On the road In the SEC is tough, especially vs a team that was previously highly touted, and AM does play bad defense...just not sure anyone can beat them,  in a shootout.

Boise is solid.  The wakeup game for them was the Fresno St game...they should have got that one in the hat, but it slipped away.  They showed a lot of guts though, coming back from 15 down, and I don't see Utah State scoring 21.  Boise could roll here.

I am not sure anyone thinks Northwestern can win vs a quality team on the road.

IMO the biggest sucker play out there is San Diego State vs AFA on Thursday...San Diego -4.  AFA plays no defense, and the perception here is that SDSU will roll em up....except that it will be cold in Colorado Springs, and AFA has played some inspired football the last 2 weeks. Still  not sure how they didn't cover vs Navy.  That looks to me like a Thursday night oddsmakers trap.

i'm more of a contrarian better, so for me its a pass or play against.  but do what fits your style Wahoo.  you seem to be doing well this year.  

Two biggest sucker bets I see are A&M, and Clemson. 

I'm not playing those games abizzo, I was asking you a question, if those bets went 3-1 would you still consider them a sucker bet? I'm just trying to figure out your thinking here & point of the thread, I'm curious

I actually lean to your side on one of those games

How do you all feel about A&M winning the game out right? I had success last weekend parlaying ML favorites so wanted to give it another whirl this week. 

Mws. U must not have watched the utah st game. The back up was awful. Your comment does not line up with reality. At all

absolutely.   these are square plays,  if you consistently play square plays, over the course of time you will lose.  you might win this week, but you will not win long term.  
  

Of course, I watched the game.  Your comment that the backup looked awful is non-responsive.  It ignores what I said.  I didn't say he looked good; I said he looked better than Keeton, which is true.

I did. I am an SEC guy and do well on these games because I follow them and watch about every game played. I come here for insights on games and teams I don't get to watch week in and week out. I went 5 and 2 last week only getting beat on the Tenn and Auburn games.

Bama has been money for me, not lost one yet and TAM has been to this point. I think Ol Miss is a pretty bad team and I know TAM has a bad defense but I am not convinced Ol Miss can keep up in a shoot out and TAM has motivation since Ol Miss QB was shooting his mouth off about having better receivers than TAM before the Bama game. It looks like a bad miss match with TAM receivers against Ol Miss DB's.

eye c u is always talking football dog... And the stuff juice out your mouth about games b stupid... Like u was talking bout LSU will not cover against Miss.st.... U B TALKING OUT THE SIDE OF YOUR MOUTH... AND CANNOT PICK A LEAF OFF A TREE.. GET REAL DOG... U DONE POST MORE THAN ME... START CHECKING THE BOX SCORES AND C HOW TEAMS WIN... LIKE MICH AGAINST UCONN & ARKON GAME THEM TWO TEAMES STAYED IN THEM GAMES CAUSE MICH TURN THE BALL OVER AND MICH WAS UP IN BOTH OF THEM GAMES AND STILL WON... DO SOME CAPPING AND U MIGHT GET GOOD...