SEC Week 4

Adding:
UGA -6.5
Alabama -9.5

Updated card:
Vandy +5.5
LSU -2.5
UGA -6.5
Alabama -9.5

Got a lot of road chalk.  Kinda feel like Bama -9.5 is a sucker bet but i cant put my money on Arkansas considering how terrible they have been.


jp1lsu-  Nice to see you on alot of the same plays. I am considering GT in the Miss st. game.  I dont see how Miss. St is going to score on the road vs GT.  GT has a very good defense that is comparable to Auburns.  I dont think Miss. St. can contain the triple option as effectively as Virgina Tech did.  I see this as a low scoring game with Miss st. at the most getting 1 td. 

I never said I was betting on it.  And why do you think Tony Franklin had the right players for his system at Troy?  It most likely was not players he'd recruited for his system.  He was only at Troy 2 seasons.  And besides that what players do you think he needs at Auburn?  Really, the only thing I think is struggling right now is QB.  The coaches have chosen to go with Todd because he's more of a passer than Burns, and while Todd has a weaker arm, he's more consistent and knows the offense better (less likely to make mistakes) as he's been running this offensive system since he was in JUNIOR HIGH SCHOOL.  If there is anybody that is Tony Franklin's pick, it is Chris Todd.  Todd followed Franklin to Auburn.  If you think for one minute that either of Auburn's lines is not JUST as good as LSU's you are just WRONG. 

At QB, IMO, one of two things is going to happen as the season progresses....  Kodi Burns is going to grasp the system and become more consistent and will take over the starting job and become the ultimate type of player for this offensive system (he can run).  Or, Todd will gain some more arm strength and never relinquish the starting job as Burns would continue to only come in the game in certain circumstances.  Todd is coming off of a throwing arm injury.  The key for Auburn fans right now is be patient.  Auburn's D is good enough alone to keep them in ANY game.

One last thing, I think if you took a look at my recent posts, you will see that I advised pretty accurately about Auburn's game with MSU.  I did miss the prediction, but the info I provided was solid... not emotional.

GL to you as well! 

Brertiger- Thanks for the info but i feel pretty good about LSU here.  As i said in many other posts Auburns offense is going to struggle in SEC play and thats why i was on Miss st last week and why i will be putting my money on LSU this week.  Auburns offense will get better as the year goes on but this is a bad team to test it out on

jp1lsu- I think Vandy's secondary is going to be good for some turnovers in this one.  Sneed has already thrown 3 and i expect him to add 2 more on his total after this game.  I know i say this every week about Vandy's secondary, but they have gotten 6 interceptions already this year. There defense has a knack for turnovers with 6 interceptions and 2 fumble recoveries.  There rushing defense has been very good this year, they have held every opponent under 100 yards rushing except rice who had 108. 

They have also averaged 225 yards rushing/game.  They had 135 vs South Carolina who's defense is miles ahead of Ole Miss.

Anyways i like Vandy in this game

jp1lsu- I may stay away from GT.  You bring up some good points about neither team being able to score enough points.  I could see GT shutting out Miss st. But i could also see a 7-3 type game.  Under may be the better play in this game if it is over 20

Adding:
Kansas St -3(Bought the hook)

Its possible this terrible Louisville team could get even worse.  George Bussey and Eric Wood, 2 starting offensive lineman and all american candidates, could be out for the game. Wood has a "sprained knee" and Bussey and starting Guard Kuyateh they are taking a "wait and see approach". CJ Peake(backup safety) has decided to transfer from Louisville.  He is 1 of many who have decided to transfer out of Louisville this year. 

Vanderbilt @ Ole Miss:  Vandy +5.5

Vanderbilt's defense is going to end up being a top 30 defense in the nation at the end of the year. They have generated 8 turnovers and only giving away 3.  Mississippi's sophmore QB Jevan Snead has thrown 3 interceptions already this year and he has yet to face a secondary of this caliber. Vandy's offense has done very well so far this season considering no one thought they would be anything. Chris Nickson the dual threat QB is going to give Ole miss problems.  I would compare Vandy's offense to a team Ole miss played in Memphis, even though memphis plays the spread.  Memphis has a dual threat QB similar to what Nickson is.  Memphis put up 188 yards rushing against Ole Miss. If they give up that much to Vandy this week they dont stand a chance.  Vandy's defense is far superior to Memphis and they will not let Ole miss put up many points. I know i have said this every week about Vandy but they have kept producing it every week.  Vandy will get 2 interceptions in this game.  They have already gotten 6 on the year so far. I am hoping Vandy continues to fly under the radar because i  think this team is for real this year, while they wont be contending for the SEC title, they will not be battling for last place either.  They already upset South Carolina and have had no trouble beating the teams they are supposed to beat this year. Rice put up 21 points in the 1st half and then Vandy came out last week and completely shut them out in the 2nd half. 

Vandy's Rush D: 98yds/game
Ole Miss Rush O: 173yds/game
Vandys Turnover margin- +5
Ole Miss: -2

I will also be playing the Vandy ML on this game. 

Tenn +7.5

Prob gong to put more on this if the line goes up more

I already locked in LSU -2.5, Wake Forest +4 & Air Force +7.5 in a 5-unit 3-team parlay.

But dy, Les Miles is better than Tommy Tubberville?  Are you serious?  You might want to check TT's record in the SEC since becoming Auburn's head coach.  Les Miles is the worst coach in the SEC West . . . by far!!!  The guy inhereted probably the most (or secod most) talented team in the nation.  LSU will again be a mediocre program soon because of Miles.  I'm on LSU in this game, and I'm praying that Miles doesn't screw it up like he's so prone to do.

FREAK OUT!!!

Say what you want about Les Miles, but he has a National Championship and a 35-6 record since being @ LSU.  He has won every bowl game since he has been there. Tommy Tuberville was close to being on his way out a couple of years ago. He is a mediocre 81-33 since he has been @ Auburn.  Not sure why you guys give him so much credit.  Les Miles does make some strange decisions sometimes but he is still a good football coach. 

Tommy T in the SEC- 50-24
Les Miles in SEC - 19-5

That is not their in-conference records, and Les should be 24-0 with the massive talent advantage he's enjoyed since being hired there.  Sure Mile is a "good" coach, but to survive in the SEC you have to be a "great" coach.  If I could have a choice of any SEC West coach to coach my team, Miles would be dead last on that list.  In the entire SEC, the only coach worse than Miles is Fulmer.

I have a huge bet on LSU in a 3-teamer primarily because Auburn has huge internal problems right now. Many of the Auburn old-timers are very, very dis-allusioned with the new offense, and with newcomer Chris Todd being named the starting QB over Kodi Burns.  Lee Ziemba said this week that this is not what he came to Auburn for.

Moreover, last week was the first SEC conference game of Chris Todd's career, and if he though the Bulldogs were fast @ tough, he's in for more hard times this week.  This game will be way too fast and way too intense for Todd.  The only way LSU doesn't win this game is if Miles screws it up, whch unfortunately for my money, is entirely possible.

FREAK OUT!!!

 

38-6 = The Hat's Overall Record at LSU


19-5 = The Hat's SEC regular season record


23-1 = The hat's record against unranked teams


15-5 = The Hat's record against Top 25 teams


13-4 = The Hat's record against Top 15 teams


7-3 = The Hat's record against Top 10 teams


6-1 = The Hat's record at home against Top 20 teams


3-0 = The Hat's Bowl Record


23-2 = The Hat's Home record


11-1 = The Hat's record in November


13-2 = The Hat's record against the SEC West


11-3 = The Hat's road record


3-0 = The Hat's record in the Superdome


4-1 = The Hat's record after November


2-0 = The Hat's record in BCS Bowls


2 SEC West Titles


1 SEC Championship


1 NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP


Won the SEC West outright for the first time in LSU history


Only LSU coach to ever post 3 straight 10 win seasons


Only LSU coach to ever post 3 straight 11 win seasons


Only LSU coach to ever post 3 straight Top 5 finishes


Only LSU coach to beat Alabama, Auburn, and Florida in the same season, (he has done it twice)


Only LSU coach to beat Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee, and Florida in the same season


Has come from behind victories over:


#15 Arizona State
#4 Alabama
#15 Auburn
#11 Florida
#8 Tennessee
#9 Florida
#17 Auburn
#17 Alabama
#14 Tennessee
#1 Ohio State



Ranked in the Top 15 in 51 of 51 polls


Ranked in the Top 10 in 45 of 51 polls


Ranked in the Top 5 in 29 of 51 polls


Ranked #1 in 5 of 51 polls


Has beaten 6 National Championship coaches:

1. Larry Coker
2. Phillip Fulmer, (twice)
3. Steve Spurrier
4. Urban Meyer, (twice)
5. Nick Saban
6. Jim Tressel

Willcover- Good evidence, i rest my case.  Les miles is a good coach, you dont win a national championship by mistake.  I dont care how much talent you have, you have to be a good coach to win a NC.

Pimpjzh-81-33 is mediocre for a Auburn team that should and could have top talent every year and be contending for the SEC title. Tommy T has only won the SEC chamoionship 1 !!!! year since he has been there. He has been there since 1999 and won 1 sec title.  You want to talk about a UNDER RATED COACH.  How about this, guess which coach this is:

75-19 since 2001
2 SEC titles since 2001
3 BCS bowl games since 2001 2-1 in them
Finished in the top 10 4 years since 2001








No its not Tommy Tuberville, or Les Miles, its






Mark Richt

Updated card:
Tenn +7.5
Wake Forest +4
Vandy +5.5
LSU -2.5
UGA -6.5
Alabama -9.5


Still undecided on GT/Miss St game, may just play a total on that game.

Friedshrimp-  I would give GT a little edge over Auburn on the offensive side because they faced a tough VT defense last week and put up 17. They had 387 yards of offense vs VT.  Miss st put up 348 vs Louisiana tech and 400 vs SE Louisiana, 116 vs Auburn.  Auburn had 161 yards rushing vs Miss st and if it werent for the 3 fumbles and  12 penalties by Auburn the may have had at least a TD or a couple more FG's.