SEC Week 4

Record so far this year:
Sides:   26-10  (72%)
Totals:   6-3-1
Underdog ML:  2-4


SEC Games this week:
LSU @ Auburn         My prediction : LSU-3
Alabama @ Arkansas  My predicition: Bama - 14
Miss St @ GT : Predicition:   GT - 7 (O/U 10)
Vandy @ Ole Miss: Predicition: Ole Miss -3
Florida @ Tennesee: Florida - 7
Georgia @ Arizona St:  Georgia - 10  (Arizona st fucked up any chance of a favorable GA line by losing to UNLV)


What we learned from last week:
1. Miss. St. and Auburn may have the worst offenses in the history of College football.  There defenses are probably top 40 defenses, but there offenses made them look alot better.
2. Vandy is a pretty good team this year.  I will probably be on them vs Ole Miss. There offense is starting to come together now.  They comepletely shutdown Rice in the 2nd half
3.South Carolina may start a downward spiral now.  Good thing they got 2 cupcakes scheduled next. I wouldn't be suprised if they lost 1 of the next 2 games.
4.Georgia Tech is going to contend for the ACC title this year.  Suprised they have put the offense together and had success so quickly. They are still struggling to learn it and making some turnovers, but by the end of the year they should have that worked out.


Ok well lets see what we get when the lines come out

We will see. If its single digits it will be -9 or -8

Guesses:

LSU @ Auburn         My prediction : Auburn -1
Alabama @ Arkansas  My predicition: Bama - 10.5
Miss St @ GT : Predicition:   GT - 9
Vandy @ Ole Miss: Predicition: Ole Miss -5.5
Florida @ Tennesee: Florida - 13
Georgia @ Arizona St:  Georgia - 7.5

Yeah, that AZ State game was farce.  Why do teams always suck ass a week before playing us, and then come out with guns blazing a week later? 

Maine, do you really think Auburn will be favored? 

I might be on Auburn, but not if they're favored.

I put all my line guesses in the other thread, but here's my guesses for the SEC games:

LSU @ Auburn +7
Alabama @ Arkansas +10
Miss St @ GT -10
Vandy @ Ole Miss: -6
Florida @ Tennesee: +3
Georgia @ Arizona St:  +10 

Looks like I won't be putting money on the dawgs this week.

If Auburn is favored i will be on LSU very LARGE.  Auburn is not even in my top 25 teams.  They have a top 25-40 type defense, but there offense is at the very very bottom of the league. 

Alabama will be a bet for me if they are favored by less than 2 tds. 

I will be interested in seeing the GT line, i think GT will handle them easily. 

Florida vs Tennesee game is going to be a good spot to bet Tennesee i think.


It looks like we all have some very different lines.  We will see what happens this week.  Id say the lines are going to get a hole lot sharper this week.

Ok i am looking at lines out on Bookmaker right now and chomping at the bit for 1 of my books to release some lines:

UGA -6.5 Will be on this one very large
Vanderbilt +6 & ML
LSU -2.5
Bama - 10 (prob going to wait on this one, got to do some more research. Got to worry about Arkansas having some extra time to prepare for this one)
Wake +5.5  - Riley Skinner complete almost 75% of his passes.  Wake has opened with 2 respectable opponents and done pretty well
Rice +30
Florida -7.5 May go with TENN on this, but have to research
Arizona - Pick

These are all leans for now.  Soon as the lines are released i will lock in a couple that will probably be moving up.  UGA and LSU will prob be 2 that i lock in early. I think the card will be a little bit smaller than what i had last week.  The lines are getting a bit sharper and i dont see as many games i like this week.

get a bookmaker account if you bet on football

people aren't sold on georgia cause of this close game vs sc, but its the sec and those games are always close. Well most of the time. Carpenter will feel like a 16 yr old virgin cause he will be on his back all day long.

dyounger - are you on LSU just cause Auburn's offense looked horrible yesterday?

Im on LSU for a number of reasons:
1. Auburns offense is terrible, i have said this for awhile, even before the game vs Miss st.
2. LSU's defense is even better than Miss. St.
3.Les Miles > Tommy Tubberville
4. LSU is flying way under the radar this year and Auburn is getting all the hype for a team that I dont even think is in the top 25.

Well I agree that Auburn is not a top 25 team, I never trust Les Miles. He had his year last year, but normally I don't trust him.

West-
Your not sold on UGA, but you are sold on Arizona st who lost to UNLV last week?  GL to you but i disagree strongly, if you want reasoning i will be posting some of my writeups tomorrow

I will take your bet right now of Florida to win the SEC. I am confident that they wont make it.

I'm with you, dyounger, on UGA and LSU, but let's get one thing straight...

When it comes to coaching, Les is less. 

Talk about a coach that has 12-0 talent every year and can consistently go 10-2 with it.  In fact, he did that last year, too... it just happened to be good enough last year. 

You know, the more I talk, the less I'm liking LSU in this spot... 

Dyounger, It seems to me you have a bias against my Tigers.  Thinking maybe you can't see past the red black glasses you are wearing when you look at Auburn. 

I agree with you that Auburn's offense is struggling a bit right now.  And I don't like that LSU is next because the offense could use a little more time to develope.  But, Auburn has tons of talent, and possibly the best defense Auburn's had in years and that is saying alot!  Do remember this is Tony Franklin's offense.  The same Tony Franklin who led Troy to score over 30 pts against 3 SEC teams last year (Florida, UGA, and Arkansas). 

Looks like the line is Auburn -1.5, and I realize that means you are planning to go large on LSU.  Yet, I would caution you because this is how it breaks down...

Auburn and LSU's offensive line and defensive lines are close to equal.  The secondaries have both faired well and I would say once again close to equal.  Both teams can run the ball, and maybe you give LSU an advantage passing the ball.  but, I wouldn't give much because LSU's new QB is about to experience pressure he's NEVER seen before.  Harvard doesn't have 87,000 roaring fans (at night) with one of the best defensive fronts in the nation trying to take your head off each play.  Special Teams for both teams have been solid... so equal again.  Home field advantage - Auburn. 

You think Auburn's offense is so bad, but win or lose this game, the offense will progress to be as competitive an offense as the uppers in the SEC by the end of season.

One last thing...  this will be a battle.  The Auburn LSU game has been one of the best games each year for a number of years now.  Both teams usually look at it as THE key game to win the west because both teams are usually so good and they usually play early in the season.  Recent scores.....

Away    vs   Home
AUB 24 - LSU 30
LSU 3 - AUB 7
AUB 17 - LSU 20 x
LSU 9 - AUB 10
AUB 7 - LSU 31
LSU 7 - AUB 31

.....home field advantage has seemed to prove big.  And Tuberville is the better coach... and that's all I have to say about that.

beware the home underdog, I see alot this week.

BrerTiger- You bring up Tony Franklin's Troy offenses put up 30 points against SEC teams. Thats a mute point, Troy had the right players for his offense.  Auburn wont put up more than 25 points on any of the top sec programs this year. I dont have a BIAS against your tigers, i dont have a bias towards any team when it comes to betting.  I bet on the teams like em or not to win.  I bet against UGA last week if you need more proof than that.
1. Auburns offensive line is nowhere near LSU's offensive line.
2.Auburns offense MAY be as good as other SEC teams by the end of the season. but i highly doubt it.  It will be atleast 1 year or 2 before this offense will be truly successful.  They need the right players and more importantly the right QB to fit the spread offense. If you expect this team to be able to adapt to a completely new and different offense system then what they ran last year in 1 year you are crazy.
3. Home team has won the past 5 years i understand.  The away team has won in UGA/AUB series the past few years to until last year.  Trends are meant to be broken.
4. Bet with your head not your heart

GL to you

Bigirion- GL to you either way, i like LSU in this one.

Bshake- thanks for your valuable insight into the games this week, i will keep in mind the fact that the SEC is overrated when i make my picks this week

Plays so far:
Vandy +5.5
LSU -2.5