Observations and Week 11 ponderings

@EightIron

@allboutmoney

Fine tuning my potential playlist:

Miami FL -11 over GEORGIA TECH - 'Canes have been playing with fire lately, but they've averaged over 43 points a game vs Power Four opponents. Even if QB  Haynes King is able to play, following the Yellowjackets' bye week, will he be rusty? It just feels like Tech will have to score in the 30s just to keep up. Not sure they can. Also, there's a HUGE revenge factor from last year's Mario Cristobal brain fart that cost Miami a win.

TEXAS -21' over Florida - Hard to see any way the Gators can keep up with so many injuries. Feels similar to the Oklahoma game that Texas won 34-3.

NORTH TEXAS +3 over Army - The bottom has fallen out of this line, which tells me Bryson Daily is out. That's a huge line adjustment though.

Kansas +2' over Iowa St. - I liked this better at +3, but Jayhawks should be able to run all day here. Haven't checked yet to see if they made Dr. Strangelove's running dog list yet, but it seems like they could qualify. I also like that they're off a bye.

INDIANA -14' over Michigan - Wolverines are 42-2 in this series since 1968, but Curt Cignetti wasn't coaching the Hoosiers in those 44 games. Last week was the first time Indiana has trailed all season, and it was the only time all season an opponent has scored against them in the first quarter. This team is relentless. They jump on you early and bury you late, owning the fourth quarter in every game, and  they've won every game by double digits. 

TEXAS TECH +4 over Colorado - Tahj Brooks and the Red Raiders running game could be the difference here. If they can control the clock and keep Shedeur Sanders and company off the field they can win this. Buffs have no run game, but their air attack can torch Tech's defense if given the opportunity. The key is to limit those opportunities.

Temple +27 over TULANE - Potential flat spot for the Green Wave in their Homecoming game, with Navy and Memphis on deck. 

VANDERBILT +6 over South Carolina - The line has jumped up from -4'. After looking at this one a little closer the Gamecocks are off a revenge win over Texas A&M last week with another revenge game vs Missouri NEXT week. Vandy has lost 15 straight in this series, including a 47-6 shellacking a year ago, and may be looking for a little payback of their own! Hell, they've covered every game as a dog this year so how can you NOT play em here?

More coming

Some more fine tuning:

OREGON -23' over Maryland - This isn't the team you wanna face when you have a bad pass defense like the Terps. Dillon Gabriel is completing 71% of his passes and the Ducks are getting better by the week. The line has dropped from -26. Long road trip for Maryland.

NOTRE DAME -26 over Florida St. - The 'Noles haven't cracked 20 points since their opener, and haven't gained 300 yards in any game this year. It just looks like this team has thrown in the towel and the Irish should win by however much they want to.

BOISE ST. -24 over Nevada - Broncos are averaging 55 points a game at home. Load up the box to stop Ashton Jeanty and Maddux Madsen will burn you with the passing game. Play a base defense and Jeanty may run for 300. He's due for a big game. However, because BSU plays a lot of backups when the game is out of hand the backdoor may be open.

PENN ST. -13 over Washington - Huskies haven't been good away from their campus (0-4 ATS) and if the Nittany Lions can shake off yet another loss to Ohio St. they should cover this one.

HAWAII +13' over Unlv - Rainbow Warriors are a handful in Honolulu. They only trailed Boise 13-7 going into the fourth quarter a month ago, and they held Fresno to less than 200 total yards last week in a 21-20 road win! The Rebels played their asses off in their 29-24 home loss to Boise two weeks ago, and after a bye take a long trip to the islands.

UTAH +3 over Byu - If the freefalling Utes can get up for any game this year, it'll be this one.

WASHINGTON ST. -20' over Utah St. - Cougs could score 50 or 60 against this Aggies defense, if you can call it that.

Now to see if I can find a few winners out of this mess and stop the bleeding!