Observations and Week 11 ponderings

Tuesday 

Bowling Green (-10') at CENTRAL MICHIGAN - Bee Gees have been wildly inconsistent. They're 3-0 ATS as a dog, and gave Penn St. and Texas A&M all they could handle early in the season, and they're off an impressive 41-26 win at Toledo. But, they're 0-3-1 as chalk. Can't hardly trust the Chippewas though, since they're just 1-5-1 ATS on the year.

Miami OH (-9') at BALL ST. - Redhawks have won the last four meetings, but they were outgained by 147 yards in last year's 17-15 road win. After a 1-4 SU and ATS start this season, they've won and covered their last three, and they look like the MAC's best team. But the Cardinals have covered all three as a conference dog, including a 25-23 win over NIU last week. They also played Vanderbilt tough in a 24-14 loss.

Wednesday 

Ohio (-17) at KENT ST. - Bobcats won last year's meeting, 42-17, and will win this one by as much as they want to. The Golden Flashes are winless and hopeless.

WESTERN MICHIGAN (-1') vs Northern Illinois - Huskies have won the last two meetings, including a 24-0 beatdown a year ago, but good luck trying to figure this team out. They were dominant in a win at Notre Dame early in the season, but they're just 1-3 SU and ATS in the MAC, with that one win a 17-7 win at BGSU as a three point dog. The Broncos lead the conference at 4-0, but two of those wins have come against bottom feeders Akron and Kent St. Gun to my head I'd take NIU as a small dog here.

Sun Belt

Thursday 

COASTAL CAROLINA (-1) vs Appalachian St - Last three meetings have been one score affairs, with Coastal winning the last two. Mountaineers have been disappointing this year, but are off a 28-20 upset win over ODU, despite being outgained by 102 yards. The Chanticleers have dropped three straight, SU and ATS, including a 38-24 upset loss at woeful Troy.

Saturday 

Texas St. (-7) at UL MONROE - Teams have traded a pair of one point wins the last two years. Bobcats are on a win two, lose two, win two, lose two trajectory, and haven't played since last Tuesday, a 23-17 loss at home to Louisiana. Warhawks have lost two straight, both on the road, but are 4-0 SU, and 3-0 ATS in Monroe, including an upset of JMU a month ago.

Marshall (14) at SOUTHERN MISS - Golden Eagles are off a bye, but haven't been competitive all season and are playing out the string. Thundering Herd held off ULM, 28-23, on Saturday, and are looking for their first road win of the year. They should get it here.

JAMES MADISON (-16') vs Georgia St - Dukes had the week off, and face an uphill climb to get back into the Sun Belt East race after being upset twice on the road in the past month. They've won the last two meetings with Georgia St. and should make it three in a row, with the Panthers playing their fourth straight road game.

LOUISIANA (-16') vs Arkansas St - Homecoming game for the Ragin' Cajuns who are looking to avenge a 37-17 upset loss in Jonesboro a year ago. The winner of this one takes control of the Sun Belt West. I'm not buying the Red Wolves as a serious threat in this one. They're good enough to beat bottom feeders like Southern Miss and Troy, but they were obliterated, 41-9, by the same Texas St. team that Louisiana knocked off last Tuesday, 23-17.

Tuesday 

Bowling Green (-10') at CENTRAL MICHIGAN - This is too many points but CMU looked terrible last week.   CMU has been favored in 3 games and AT EMU failed to cover by a hook.  They have QB injuries and that makes this game difficult.  

Miami OH (-9') at BALL ST. M-OH but I pass 

Wednesday 

Ohio (-17) at KENT ST. -  agree no play

WESTERN MICHIGAN (-1') vs Northern Illinois - WMU has played a very soft conference schedule 4-0 is misleading.  NIU is the play here. 

 play here is NIU.  Lean to the Chips 

@spottie2935

These lines were from Saturday. Since then, Bowling Green has jumped up to -14! Dog is tempting but not playable for the reasons you mentioned.

Miami OH is now at -12! Redhawks look like they could run the table the rest of the way, but Ball St. has covered their last four as a dog. Tough call.

Ohio is now -18' and should win by as much as they want to over "Can't" St.

NIU is now a slight favorite (-1') at WMU. IF the Huskies bring their A game they should take this one, key word being IF.

AAC

Thursday 

EAST CAROLINA (-7') vs Florida Atlantic - Not crazy about either side here. Pirates won last year's meeting, 22-7, and are off a 56-34 thrashing of Temple. Owls were clobbered at home by USF, 44-21. Revenge COULD be a motive for FAU to show up for this one, plus they're on the brink of being home for the holidays with another loss. ECU has a revenge game at Tulsa on deck. Having said all that.....pass.

Friday 

MEMPHIS (-9') vs Rice - Tigers were expected to contend for the G5 playoff berth this year, but those hopes were completely dashed with with a 44-36 upset loss at UTSA. Since beating Florida St. they've underachieved all year and are 1-5 ATS, all as chalk, but they ARE bowl eligible. The Owls on the other hand can't afford another loss, at 3-6 on the season. They have been competitive of late though (2-2 SU, 3-0-1 ATS, all as a dog) and are off a dominant 24-10 win over Navy. Rice could hang around in this one.

Saturday 

Navy (-3) at USF - There was a huge red flag in Navy's 51-17 rout of Charlotte three weeks ago. The Midshipmen were actually outgained by 70 yards in that one but we're the beneficiaries of five turnovers. Since then they've been dominated by Notre Dame and Rice, and are on the road for a third straight week. However, while the Bulls are 4-4 they're 0-3 ATS in their last three as a dog, and they haven't beat anybody that's any good. Slightest of leans to Navy.

UConn (-6') at UAB - Huskies got their sixth win with a 34-27 win over Georgia St. and are bowl eligible. Blazers are off a 59-21 beatdown over Tulsa and need to win out to become bowl eligible. UConn is the better team but UAB has the motivation. 

Army (-6) at NORTH TEXAS - Damn. I was all set to hammer Army last week over Air Force, until Bryson Daily was declared out for unspecified reasons. This line kinda indicates he might STILL be out. The Mean Green had a bye, and are off back to back eight point losses at Memphis and home against Tulane, despite outgaining both by an average of 90 yards a game. North Texas can play, but this one is a pass until Daily's status is determined.

TULANE (-26') vs Temple - Homecoming game for the Green Wave, which has huge games on deck, at Navy and home against Memphis to close out the regular season. Since losing back to back games vs Power Four foes, Tulane has been on a 6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS roll, but this is a bad spot for them. The Owls have to win out to become bowl eligible, and winning here will be a tall task, but they're off a bye and have covered four of their last six games. They won't win this, but could sneak under the huge number here. Lean to Temple.

ACC

Friday

California (-7) at WAKE FOREST - Both teams are off a bye. Golden Bears ended a four game slide with a 44-7 rout of former PAC 12 rival Oregon St. in their most complete game of the season. The Demon Deacons are looking for their first FBS home win of the year (0-4 SU, 0-3-1 ATS), and are off a 27-24 win at Stanford. Long road trip for Cal, but they're the better team here.

Saturday 

BOSTON COLLEGE (-2) vs Syracuse - Orange are looking to avenge last year's 17-10 home loss, and are off a come from behind, 38-31 overtime win over Virginia Tech. Kyle McCord threw for 264 yards and two TDs to rally 'Cuse from a 21-3 third quarter deficit, a week after he threw three pick sixes in a 41-13 blowout loss at Pitt. Eagles are off a bye and are looking to end a three game skid. Tough call.

Miami FL (-11) at GEORGIA TECH - Hurricanes look to avenge an inexplicable 23-20 home loss to the Yellowjackets a year ago, as 19 point chalk, a game where they outgained Tech by 199 yards! Mario Cristobal literally snatched defeat from the jaws of victory with some boneheaded coaching moves, and the 'Canes never recovered, spiraling to a 3-6 finish. Miami is on a mission this year, and is off a 53-31 win over Duke, rallying from a 28-17 third quarter deficit with a 36-3 run! Georgia Tech had their bye and is hoping to have star QB Haynes King back from a shoulder injury. Without him the 'Jackets would struggle to keep up with a Miami team that hasn't scored less than 36 points all season. They may struggle to keep up anyway.

NC STATE (-3) vs Duke - Hard to see the Blue Devils getting up off the mat after two tough losses in a row. While they are 3-1-1 ATS in ACC play, they've been outgained in all five by an average of over 89 yards a game. The Wolfpack look to avenge a 24-3 loss a year ago, and have won their last two. They need another win to become bowl eligible and will give it their best effort on senior day in Raleigh.

Clemson (-6') at VIRGINIA TECH - Both teams are off upset losses that saw their conference title hopes take serious hits. The Tigers fell behind 26-7 and never threatened in a shocking 33-21 loss at home to Louisville. Before that game they'd won six straight in dominant fashion. The Hokies blew a 21-3 lead in a 38-31 overtime loss at Syracuse. 

NOTRE DAME (-26) vs Florida St - Irish are off a bye, have won six straight (5-1 ATS), and will win this one by as many as they want to. The Seminoles have thrown in the towel for this year.

PITTSBURGH (-7') vs Virginia - Panthers have won six of the last seven meetings, but didn't play last year. They saw their unbeaten season come crashing to a violent end in a 48-25 blowout loss at SMU, and it wasn't even that close. They trailed 48-11 midway through the fourth quarter before scoring twice in garbage time. Pitt isn't as good as their record would indicate. They're 2-4 in the stats vs Power Four opponents, and could come up flat here after suffering their first loss. The Cavaliers are off a bye and looking to end a three game losing streak, including a 41-14 rout at home by North Carolina two weeks ago. But in their last five games they're 4-1 ATS.

BIG Ten

Friday 

Iowa (-5') at UCLA - Hawkeyes have scored at least 40 points in three of their last four games, all at home. QB Brendan Sullivan hasn't put up big numbers, since taking over for injured Cade McNamara, but he's doing just enough, both in the air and on the ground, to keep the chains moving. Of course the offense still revolves around Kaleb Johnson, who's rushed for 1279 yards (7.5 YPR) with 19 TDs this season. Both players came up big in Iowa's 42-10 blowout win over Wisconsin. But now they face a long road trip, and they haven't been as good away from Iowa City. The Bruins have made a dramatic improvement, ending a five game skid with back to back upsets at  Rutgers (35-32) and at Nebraska (27-20). They'll try to keep that momentum going under the Friday night lights in their Homecoming game.

Saturday 

OHIO ST (-38) vs Purdue - Buckeyes should be able to name the score in this one. The Boilermakers are off a 26-20 overtime loss to Northwestern, which was their last best chance for a win against a FBS team. 

Minnesota (-6) at RUTGERS - Two teams headed in opposite directions. The Golden Gophers have won four straight and cashed five straight tickets, including a 25-17 win at Illinois in their last outing. They go on the road again to face a Scarlet Knights team that's lost four straight (0-3-1 ATS), including a 42-20 thumping at USC two weeks ago. Rutgers is off their bye week, which couldn't have come at a better time.

INDIANA (-14') vs Michigan - The Hoosiers spotted Michigan St a 10-0 lead at East Lansing, the first time they've trailed all season, then decided enough of that nonsense and scored the next 47 points in a 47-10 shellacking over the Spartans. Kurtis Rourke returned from a hand injury throwing for 263 yards and four TDs, while the defense recorded seven sacks and held Sparty to just 241 total yards, including just 12 yards rushing. Indiana is 9-0,  with all nine wins by double digits, and they're 7-1 ATS. The Wolverines were worn down by Oregon in a 38-17 loss, although QB Davis Warren actually gave them a bit of a spark throwing for 165 yards and a couple TDs. This seems like a big spread but Indiana is just relentless and is taking no prisoners. It's Indiana or nobody.

OREGON (-26) vs Maryland - Terrapins had a bye, a week after taking a 48-23 thumping at Minnesota. Now they make the long trip west where another thumping likely awaits them in Eugene against the top ranked Ducks. Other than Boise and Ohio St. no team has come close to challenging Oregon this year, and this one feels like a four TD blowout.

PENN ST. (-13') vs Washington - Nittany Lions flat out choked in their 20-13 loss to Ohio St. They had first and goal at the Buckeyes three yard line TWICE and got zero points! For James Franklin it was a case of same old, same old. Now they host the Huskies, who are off a 26-21 win over former PAC 12 foe USC. UDub has been a Jekyll and Hyde team. They're 5-0 in Husky Stadium, but 0-4 SU and ATS everywhere else. Hard to back them here with Penn St. off a bitter loss.

@MrFreedo

MWC/PAC 2

Friday

SAN DIEGO ST (-2') vs New Mexico - Aztecs were blown out at Boise, 56-24, in their last outing, but the week before that they gave Wazzu all they could handle, before blowing a 26-14 fourth quarter lead in a 29-26 loss. Lobos rushed for over 400 yards but gave up 604 total yards in a 49-45 home loss to Wyoming.

Saturday 

OREGON ST. (-3) vs San Jose St. - Both teams are off a bye, following blowout losses, and both teams are on 0-4 ATS slides. The Spartans were blown out at Fresno, 33-10, two weeks ago, and the Beavers were kicked to the curb at Cal by a 44-7 score. 

BOISE ST. (-24) vs Nevada - Teams have been loading the box against the Broncos in an effort to stop Ashton Jeanty, and QB Maddux Madsen is making them pay. He went 24 of 32 for 307 yards and four TDs in Boise's blowout of SDSU. In four home games the Broncos are averaging almost 55 points a game. The Wolf Pack's season is essentially over, but I don't think they'll quit on HC Jeff Choate. They lost their last game, 38-21, against Colorado St. despite outgaining the Rams by 114 yards. Brendan Lewis is a decent dual threat QB and will have some success, but they can't match points with Boise. The Broncos came in at #12 in the first college football playoff rankings and I don't see them letting their foot off the gas. I like Boise here.

Unlv (-13') at HAWAII - Rebels had a bye after losing their big showdown with Boise, and now face a tricky little encounter at Hawaii, in a series where the home team has won the last four meetings. The Rainbow Warriors are 1-2 SU vs FBS teams in Honolulu, but 3-0 ATS, and only trailed Boise St. 13-7 going into the fourth quarter of their game a month ago. In their last outing the 'Bows scored 14 unanswered fourth quarter points to rally past Fresno, 21-20, holding the Bulldogs to just 171 total yards, including a mere 19 on the ground. I lean Hawaii in this one.

Fresno St. (-10') at AIR FORCE - Bulldogs were inept on offense against Hawaii, but should rebound against a horrible Air Force team. The Flyboys have lost seven straight (1-6 ATS).

WASHINGTON ST. (-20') vs Utah St. - Cougars are averaging 51 points a game at home, the Aggies are giving up 45 a game on the road. The over/under is 70. Yikes. Wazzu should be able to run for a few here behind John Mateer and company.

Appreciate your efforts Boise ….  Enjoy your snow… I’m in Missouri …. Jet stream has record highs here… killin my bowhunting…. I hate hunting with gnats and mosquitoes around.        I’m teasing Fresno with others…. They almost beat mich on road… surely they won’t blow this.   

@Mskeets

 Good luck and happy hunting! 

The rest of the Week 11 slate. All games played on Saturday, with great potential for more chaos!

Big 12

CINCINNATI (-5) vs West Virginia - Both teams are off a bye and both are still in the mix for the Big 12 title. Mountaineers amassed 634 total yards in last year's meeting, a 42-21 victory. At Arizona two weeks ago QB Nicco Marchiol, in for injured starter Garrett Greene, was sharp in leading WVU to a 31-26 upset win. The Bearcats, meanwhile, lost at red-hot Colorado, 34-23. 

Iowa St. (-3) at Kansas (at Arrowhead Stadium) - Jayhawks are off a bye and seeking their third straight win over the Cyclones, who suffered their first loss of the season last week, falling to Texas Tech, 23-22, in a stunning home upset. THIS, after nearly losing at home to UCF, before rallying for a 38-35 win. The 'Clones better wake up fast because Kansas is playing its' best ball of the season after a miserable 1-5 start. In their last outing they gave arch rival Kansas St. a scare before succumbing, 29-27, and now they have to run the table for bowl eligibility. 

Colorado (-4) at TEXAS TECH - Buffaloes are off a bye, and are improving by the week. Since losing to Nebraska in early September, Colorado has gone 6-1 SU and 5-0-1 ATS. Going to Lubbock is no gimme though, as the Red Raiders are off that huge upset win at Iowa St. and are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven, including 3-0 as a dog. Both QBs, Shedeur Sanders for the Buffs and Behren Morton of Texas Tech, are having fine seasons, as is Colorado's Heisman hopeful Travis Hunter. But the key to this game may be Tech RB Tahj Brooks, who has rushed for 1047 yards (5.1 YPR) and ten TDs. If the Red Raiders can control the clock with their run game, and keep Sanders and company off the field they have a good shot to win this. That's an absolute must because their pass defense is horrid. I'm leaning Texas Tech.

TCU (-11) vs Oklahoma St - No conference title hopes for either team and the Cowboys' bowl hopes are on life support. They've dropped six straight (1-5 ATS) and have been one of the biggest disappointments of the season. Horned Frogs need one more win to get to a bowl, but they're no bargain at 2-6 ATS, including 0-5 as chalk.

ARIZONA ST. (-2') vs Ucf - Knights snapped a five game losing streak with a 56-12 blowout of Arizona, but have to win two of their last three for bowl eligibility, and going clear across the country to face a good Sun Devils team is a daunting proposition. QB Sam Leavitt returned from a cracked rib and completed 20 of 29 for 304 yards and three scores to lead Arizona St. to a 42-21 rout of Okie St. The Sun Devils (6-2 SU, and ATS, including 4-0 in Tempe) are still in the mix for a Big 12 title.

Byu (-3') at UTAH - Cougars are undefeated at 8-0 (6-1 ATS) and sit atop the conference standings. The Utes have lost Cam Rising for the season and are on a 0-4 SU and ATS freefall. It seems like BYU should be the play here, but this is the Holy War, and if there's a game where Utah is able to get up off the mat and play their best game of the season, this would be the game against their bitter rivals. This line has dropped from 4', maybe for good reason.

@Boisestateand8

Great job appreciate the insights 

Great job appreciate the insights 

Great job appreciate the insights 

@IntenseOperator

@ULLafayettekid

nice ponderings

GL  on your plays . . . very informative mah man @Boisestateand8 

SEC

TEXAS (-21') vs Florida - Longhorns are off their bye week and need to regroup, after being dumped by Georgia, 30-15 and surviving at Vanderbilt, 27-24 in their last two games. Their defense should be able to handle the shorthanded Gators, who hung with Georgia for a while before losing 34-20. They were missing their top QB, RB, WR and CB in that game, and then lost backup QB DJ Lagway to an injured hammy, and also lost another CB. They've played hard in their last five games (5-0 ATS), but man are they beat up!

Georgia (-3) at OLE MISS - Revenge game for the Rebels, who were stomped by the Bulldogs in Athens a year ago, 52-17. Tough game to cap. Georgia has failed to cover their last five games as chalk, and Carson Beck has thrown six interceptions in his last two games, but the defense bailed them out holding Texas and Florida to an average of 244 total yards. Ole Miss absolutely has to win this game to have any hope of crashing the playoff party, and Jaxson Dart is the nation's leading passer, but this is their toughest test of the season.

South Carolina (-4') at VANDERBILT - Hard to play against either team in this one. Gamecocks have won the last 15 meetings and the last seven in Nashville, and they're off a huge 44-20 upset win over Texas A&M. The 'Cocks need one more win for bowl eligibility and are 6-2 ATS. But the Commodores have been one of the best stories of the season and are a live dog here. How can you not take a team that's a perfect 6-0 ATS as a dog this year, with four outright wins? Not betting it, but Ima rooting for Vandy!

TENNESSEE (-24') vs Mississippi St. - Homecoming game for the Volunteers, who have a huge game at Georgia on deck and can't get caught looking ahead against a team that has nothing to play for except pride. The Vols' defense has yet to allow any team to eclipse 20 points in a game, and has allowed a grand total of 99 for season. Offensively they've struggled in SEC play, but should get healthy vs a Bulldogs defense that's allowing nearly 43 points a game vs conference opponents. 

Alabama (-3) at LSU - Both teams are off a bye and have split the last two meetings, each team winning at home. Call this one a playoff elimination game with both teams having two losses. The Crimson Tide have lost their last two road games, at Vandy (40-35) and at Tennessee (24-17), but are off a 34-0 shutout win at home over a shorthanded Missouri team two weeks ago. The Bayou Bengals meanwhile were dumped at Texas A&M, 38-23, but they're 4-0 in Baton Rouge, and are especially tough to beat there at night.

Oklahoma (-3) at MISSOURI -The Sooners are favored in this game? Based on what, a 59-14 beatdown of FCS Maine? Not buying it, but I'm also not buying the Tigers until I learn more regarding QB Brady Cook's status. Mizzou had the week off, so we'll see if he's recovered enough from two separate injuries to start.

@rosswin97

@Macwestie1

 Best of luck to you too Mac! 

And finally,

C-USA

Liberty (-11) at MIDDLE TENNESSEE ST. - Flames got a 42-35 win in the last meeting a year ago, but didn't cover the -16 point spread. Now, after being a prohibitive preseason favorite to win the conference title again, they've dropped two straight, including a shocking 27-24 loss to FBS newcomer Kennesaw St. two weeks ago. Liberty is just 1-5 ATS this year, all as chalk. Can't hardly back the Blue Raiders though, as their only FBS wins have been over Kennesaw and at UTEP.

UTEP (-4) vs Kennesaw St. - I wouldn't play this garbage game with monopoly money.

Jacksonville St. (-10) at LOUISIANA TECH - Gamecocks cruised to a 56-17 smackdown in last year's meeting, and they're off a 31-21 win at Liberty last week. After an 0-3 start they've won and covered five straight. It's Homecoming in Ruston, and the Bulldogs better bring some defense in this one, as Jack St. is averaging just under 45 points in their last six games. 

Western Kentucky (-18') at NEW MEXICO ST. - Homecoming for the Aggies, who upset the Hilltoppers, 38-29, on the road a year ago. WKU should roll in this one by as much as they want to.

Thanks for sharing your work Boise.    I read a fair amount of analysis and there is none anywhere that is more concise yet gives me a great starting point in terms of what spots are worth giving more attention to and also capturing some of the most important circumstances going into a game.   Respect