Thanks for posting. Public is on M. Tenn yet the line has gone down by more than four points. That's a red flag. It is a value play with the unpopular losing team on a losing skid against a sell high popular team above .500. Also, Kennesaw State is ranked 94th in the country (defensively) for generated offensive plays allowed while M. Tenn is 116th. On offense, yards generated Kennesaw State is 98th while M. Tenn is 109. Kennesaw ranks better both offensively and defensively.
Lastly, why is a HOME team 4-3, coming off an upset win, and owning a two-game winning streak...only opened as a favorite by three over a 1-6 team that just got blown out?
Thanks for posting. Public is on M. Tenn yet the line has gone down by more than four points. That's a red flag. It is a value play with the unpopular losing team on a losing skid against a sell high popular team above .500. Also, Kennesaw State is ranked 94th in the country (defensively) for generated offensive plays allowed while M. Tenn is 116th. On offense, yards generated Kennesaw State is 98th while M. Tenn is 109. Kennesaw ranks better both offensively and defensively.
Lastly, why is a HOME team 4-3, coming off an upset win, and owning a two-game winning streak...only opened as a favorite by three over a 1-6 team that just got blown out?
Well if your worried about why. They were only a small fav???? Maybe that was answered because now they are a dog. So if they. We're-6 you would have liked them more??? Trends ...takes a lot of action to move a game 4 pts...all on kenn st. To me thats even more fishy......no injuries. Maybe they are predicting turnovers.....only way I see mtsu losing just like last year's game....kenn. st more injuries...mtsu ran well last week. Its an odd line move. Stats are not the reason. Sometimes lines move and everyone jumps on. Board. There have been a lot like this already..i don't see how public is on mtsu??? They ..don't move the line other way just to trick people....money has too. And Kennesaw st jumps up 7-0. Money maybe was right. Tonight
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@River_fish
Well if your worried about why. They were only a small fav???? Maybe that was answered because now they are a dog. So if they. We're-6 you would have liked them more??? Trends ...takes a lot of action to move a game 4 pts...all on kenn st. To me thats even more fishy......no injuries. Maybe they are predicting turnovers.....only way I see mtsu losing just like last year's game....kenn. st more injuries...mtsu ran well last week. Its an odd line move. Stats are not the reason. Sometimes lines move and everyone jumps on. Board. There have been a lot like this already..i don't see how public is on mtsu??? They ..don't move the line other way just to trick people....money has too. And Kennesaw st jumps up 7-0. Money maybe was right. Tonight
Not mentioning anything live. Pretty much know what my likes are. ....wish everyone the best here. Kennesaw may need some explosive plays. They have 2 already. Kick return and big td pass. We have a 14-14 game. Ill guess there were many unders in this one....i hate unders. :)
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Not mentioning anything live. Pretty much know what my likes are. ....wish everyone the best here. Kennesaw may need some explosive plays. They have 2 already. Kick return and big td pass. We have a 14-14 game. Ill guess there were many unders in this one....i hate unders. :)
Thanks for replying. Turnovers are the hardest thing in football to predict. I don't see people laying money based on maybe getting turnovers. As for public...70% of Draft King bets were on M. Tenn St. I believe most books took bets on M. Tenn St. I believe that makes it a public side. I didn't say that stats made the line move. This is what I believe. Kenn State is the defending champ in the league from last year. They also lost three games by three points or less. They did get blown out by Liberty, but Liberty is head and shoulders better than anyone in the league. M. Tenn state got a big upset win last week. Kenn. St is undervalued and M. Tenn St is overvalued. When the line opened up at minus three for M. Tenn ST the public jumped but sharps at Circa paid good money on Kenn St. Why? The stats also back it up. It is a huge value play to go with Kenn State. It is a close game. We shall see what happens in the second half. I do understand why the line moved.
@RUM151
Thanks for replying. Turnovers are the hardest thing in football to predict. I don't see people laying money based on maybe getting turnovers. As for public...70% of Draft King bets were on M. Tenn St. I believe most books took bets on M. Tenn St. I believe that makes it a public side. I didn't say that stats made the line move. This is what I believe. Kenn State is the defending champ in the league from last year. They also lost three games by three points or less. They did get blown out by Liberty, but Liberty is head and shoulders better than anyone in the league. M. Tenn state got a big upset win last week. Kenn. St is undervalued and M. Tenn St is overvalued. When the line opened up at minus three for M. Tenn ST the public jumped but sharps at Circa paid good money on Kenn St. Why? The stats also back it up. It is a huge value play to go with Kenn State. It is a close game. We shall see what happens in the second half. I do understand why the line moved.
Damn. Tv analyst at halftime said MTSU has to stop the explosive plays. ....just what I said kenn st needed. Mtsu really screwed up a 3rd and 1 play early in 2nd qtr at 50 yd line when that qb just sat there waiting for a hole to open and lost yards. Just get the ball and go. Ya need a yd. I swear. They had a decent drive going up 14-13 @ then punted and guy runs it back 50 yds. Huge momentum swing. ...and on.last drive over threw a rec who would have scored easily. Little plays
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Damn. Tv analyst at halftime said MTSU has to stop the explosive plays. ....just what I said kenn st needed. Mtsu really screwed up a 3rd and 1 play early in 2nd qtr at 50 yd line when that qb just sat there waiting for a hole to open and lost yards. Just get the ball and go. Ya need a yd. I swear. They had a decent drive going up 14-13 @ then punted and guy runs it back 50 yds. Huge momentum swing. ...and on.last drive over threw a rec who would have scored easily. Little plays
How did people know there would be a pick 6. Another decent drive started by mtsu and he throws an easy pick 6. One thing I noticed this qb has been giving it away where he's throwing. Nice read by LB to just step in front. ..and another explosive play by kS
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How did people know there would be a pick 6. Another decent drive started by mtsu and he throws an easy pick 6. One thing I noticed this qb has been giving it away where he's throwing. Nice read by LB to just step in front. ..and another explosive play by kS
Both these teams suck...lol. but that pick 6 looms large. KS had a pick 6 last year too or a fumble return for a td against mtsu. If thats the diff. Oh well. But to be honest both teams look bad on offense. The mtsu qb targets where he is gonna throw all the time....and mtsu loses their best player Lacy. That hurts. Did ya see the play he got hurt on? That guy tackled him and twisted that ankle big time even after he was down...he rolled over holding it and really twisted with his weight.
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Both these teams suck...lol. but that pick 6 looms large. KS had a pick 6 last year too or a fumble return for a td against mtsu. If thats the diff. Oh well. But to be honest both teams look bad on offense. The mtsu qb targets where he is gonna throw all the time....and mtsu loses their best player Lacy. That hurts. Did ya see the play he got hurt on? That guy tackled him and twisted that ankle big time even after he was down...he rolled over holding it and really twisted with his weight.
Ok. On to Thursday. Im sure our local patrol officer will chime in to remind us. ..lmao. we will get this one back. I just missed the 2 big INT'S....good for kennesaw st. Good games coming up...its a marathon.
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Ok. On to Thursday. Im sure our local patrol officer will chime in to remind us. ..lmao. we will get this one back. I just missed the 2 big INT'S....good for kennesaw st. Good games coming up...its a marathon.
only 2 plays in for tonight, 1st is one i bet early in the week OVER 72.5 N Texas game, it opened at 69.5 and is now 78.5, so as some say we got value maybe, well if ya like the over we did, and there is really only one reason to bet early, its because you are thinking that that is the best line you can get for the side you like, i mean you could bet tuesday and take a team +5 and then have them getting 7 later and be kicking yourself, booking for 35 years did let ya get a feel for the public..lol as we know odds change and trying to make sure we get the best number is important, in todays world though we can always cancel our bet for a small fee, years ago that didnt happen...getting the best line does not mean it will win, but isnt it smart to get the best line possible on who you like? of course
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bet 2 Over 34.5 JMU TT Troy use to always have a decent defense but they did give up 33 to ULL this year and 34 to southern Miss , and this year they have been scoring at home, last 2 games 45 vs Marshall and 49 vs Ga st, they are averaging 41 a game this year, but Troy giving up just 24, but i am still trying this one
also the team total on N Texas has just kept going up someone asked me about it the other day and i said i wish i had gotten 41.5 then it was 45.5, today its 47.5 i think they could get 49 tonight , weather is cloudy about 73 at game time and it should be clearing a little it says, winds up to 9 mph , both teams are 6-1 Over this year, FAU is avg 37 pts a game and giving up 34, N Texas is avg 43 and giving up just over 30 a game....FAU is 5-0 ats last 5 before UTSA, but they are just 2-16 ats after scoring 35+..but N Texas is just 2-9 ats on weekdays, but are 8-0 ats as home fav's >3 pts off str up win did like it at earlier lines
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only 2 plays in for tonight, 1st is one i bet early in the week OVER 72.5 N Texas game, it opened at 69.5 and is now 78.5, so as some say we got value maybe, well if ya like the over we did, and there is really only one reason to bet early, its because you are thinking that that is the best line you can get for the side you like, i mean you could bet tuesday and take a team +5 and then have them getting 7 later and be kicking yourself, booking for 35 years did let ya get a feel for the public..lol as we know odds change and trying to make sure we get the best number is important, in todays world though we can always cancel our bet for a small fee, years ago that didnt happen...getting the best line does not mean it will win, but isnt it smart to get the best line possible on who you like? of course
[image from unapproved source]
bet 2 Over 34.5 JMU TT Troy use to always have a decent defense but they did give up 33 to ULL this year and 34 to southern Miss , and this year they have been scoring at home, last 2 games 45 vs Marshall and 49 vs Ga st, they are averaging 41 a game this year, but Troy giving up just 24, but i am still trying this one
also the team total on N Texas has just kept going up someone asked me about it the other day and i said i wish i had gotten 41.5 then it was 45.5, today its 47.5 i think they could get 49 tonight , weather is cloudy about 73 at game time and it should be clearing a little it says, winds up to 9 mph , both teams are 6-1 Over this year, FAU is avg 37 pts a game and giving up 34, N Texas is avg 43 and giving up just over 30 a game....FAU is 5-0 ats last 5 before UTSA, but they are just 2-16 ats after scoring 35+..but N Texas is just 2-9 ats on weekdays, but are 8-0 ats as home fav's >3 pts off str up win did like it at earlier lines
one game i am putting in now for saturday is Arizona +4.5 -125 at Texas Tech should be a good game, but i really like how Arizona has been playing, their defense is good, they lost 28-17 early at BYU but gave away an early TD when they threw a INT at their own 9 and Gave BYU an easy td ..that was after taking the opening kickoff and driving 75 yds on 12 plays for a 7-0 lead, then they forced a punt and then threw the INT , and then they drove 12 plays 55 yds and kicked a fg, they could have been up 10-0 after the 1st qtr, they held WV to 31 on the road and scored 52, they beat Cinn big at home, i trust them more than Tech , this is a huge game for both, Texas tech barely beat a decent Oregon st team 35-24 the last td was a gimme, they beat Houston by 2 but i do not think they would beat Houston now , think Arizona's defense is better and they seem to have confidence right now defense is giving up just 16 a game
Arizona +4.5 -125
also looking at UAB who has covered for me, they just seem to stay in games and have had some comebacks.....also S Car ++5.5 at Oklahoma only worry is the SEC flu, not a lot of great games this week just starting to look at some been very busy this week and have not had the time like usual ....and i think Miami fl laying 14 or less, i think they need a big road win and this could be it, not sure what happened to N.Car last game when Syracuse came back and won outright, but Miami really layed it on Pitt, but now they need another big win and if they can cover at N Car it would really stamp them as #1 ...and Liberty who has been rolling lately, they have been scoring and have been playing really good defense too, they have given up just 23 pts in the last 3 games and only given up over 17 once, and we know FIU has issues scoring points, yes they play defense,they gave up 26 and 27 last 2 games, i think this could be a 28-10 33-13 type of game ...and Oregon st who i have been on a few times, they are at fresno st, could find out a lot about Oregon st here, they are a 5.5 pt fav, avg 42 a game on offense, their TT is 32.5 total is 58.5 for game and fresno has been scoring some points, little scary laying that on the road but OSU's offense has been really good lots of ways to go there maybe just some i am looking into
gl
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one game i am putting in now for saturday is Arizona +4.5 -125 at Texas Tech should be a good game, but i really like how Arizona has been playing, their defense is good, they lost 28-17 early at BYU but gave away an early TD when they threw a INT at their own 9 and Gave BYU an easy td ..that was after taking the opening kickoff and driving 75 yds on 12 plays for a 7-0 lead, then they forced a punt and then threw the INT , and then they drove 12 plays 55 yds and kicked a fg, they could have been up 10-0 after the 1st qtr, they held WV to 31 on the road and scored 52, they beat Cinn big at home, i trust them more than Tech , this is a huge game for both, Texas tech barely beat a decent Oregon st team 35-24 the last td was a gimme, they beat Houston by 2 but i do not think they would beat Houston now , think Arizona's defense is better and they seem to have confidence right now defense is giving up just 16 a game
Arizona +4.5 -125
also looking at UAB who has covered for me, they just seem to stay in games and have had some comebacks.....also S Car ++5.5 at Oklahoma only worry is the SEC flu, not a lot of great games this week just starting to look at some been very busy this week and have not had the time like usual ....and i think Miami fl laying 14 or less, i think they need a big road win and this could be it, not sure what happened to N.Car last game when Syracuse came back and won outright, but Miami really layed it on Pitt, but now they need another big win and if they can cover at N Car it would really stamp them as #1 ...and Liberty who has been rolling lately, they have been scoring and have been playing really good defense too, they have given up just 23 pts in the last 3 games and only given up over 17 once, and we know FIU has issues scoring points, yes they play defense,they gave up 26 and 27 last 2 games, i think this could be a 28-10 33-13 type of game ...and Oregon st who i have been on a few times, they are at fresno st, could find out a lot about Oregon st here, they are a 5.5 pt fav, avg 42 a game on offense, their TT is 32.5 total is 58.5 for game and fresno has been scoring some points, little scary laying that on the road but OSU's offense has been really good lots of ways to go there maybe just some i am looking into
That’s a lot going on in that last paragraph… I’m going James mad total… weather nice in most parts … I think I had over in N Texas also on Monday in my parlays… had west Kent … lose. Had jack st last night. Agree on Arizona. Their scores keep popping…. But this is the worst time to catch TTech…. I’m leaving alone… ok. James mad TT OVA….. get em rum.
That’s a lot going on in that last paragraph… I’m going James mad total… weather nice in most parts … I think I had over in N Texas also on Monday in my parlays… had west Kent … lose. Had jack st last night. Agree on Arizona. Their scores keep popping…. But this is the worst time to catch TTech…. I’m leaving alone… ok. James mad TT OVA….. get em rum.
all those others are early thoughts..is all no plays in those i mentioned their TT because i have won their TT last 2 i played so of course its going to interest me somehwat thats all just tonights and arizona
yea Mskeets i see your point but Arizona has been a good road team, and i just do not think of Tex Tech as a very good team .....they could win and cover for sure but going with the road doggie here
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@CabernetTrey
all those others are early thoughts..is all no plays in those i mentioned their TT because i have won their TT last 2 i played so of course its going to interest me somehwat thats all just tonights and arizona
yea Mskeets i see your point but Arizona has been a good road team, and i just do not think of Tex Tech as a very good team .....they could win and cover for sure but going with the road doggie here
I hear ya sir… if I play gonna go Arizona ML… Texas tech either plays very well… or implode… I lean implode… but Arizona scores are impressive… I think they have beaten me once or twice this year… and by a wide margin I believe… I’m pulling for ARIZ.. love to see them make the final 12…
@RUM151
I hear ya sir… if I play gonna go Arizona ML… Texas tech either plays very well… or implode… I lean implode… but Arizona scores are impressive… I think they have beaten me once or twice this year… and by a wide margin I believe… I’m pulling for ARIZ.. love to see them make the final 12…
They were done for the evening… looking at conference standings… I think J Mad had some leeway… didn’t watch… but they were done at half…. I did play app st last week… oh well…. Onward and upward… I did have them ML IN 4 small parlays…. Ok rum… a good college football weekend upcoming….
They were done for the evening… looking at conference standings… I think J Mad had some leeway… didn’t watch… but they were done at half…. I did play app st last week… oh well…. Onward and upward… I did have them ML IN 4 small parlays…. Ok rum… a good college football weekend upcoming….
be interessting to see how they play from now on since they are out of the playoff picture, i was driving last night when i seen the score 21-14 JMU and the line was just JMU -3.5 it did go to 9.5 when JMU was at the 40 of Troy in the 3rd but it just felt that Troy could win after that, i was surprised they did, did not see any of the game,
got the over 72.5 and was glad it even went over the kickoff # too .........
1-1 thurssday
adding some Saturday plays ...and some i havent mentioned well maybe
Minnesota at Indiana Indiana coming back home after the OT win at Michigan, and Minnesota coming in after after winning outright at home vs Iowa as a 7 pt dog , in this one i am taking Minnesota here and the points, this team has beaten Michigan, Beaten Iowa, won at Washington all as a dog, the one thing they do is keep games lower scoring, play field position and i just think its too many points, and just how they have played on the road this year, now i usually post some trends with my plays, but i do not play games based on trends, i have said in the past after looking into a game and deciding who i like sometimes i will then see if i can find some trends that support it if so then maybe i like it a bit more, Minnesota is 8-0 ats as a dog of >8 points when coming off a SU dog win ...there are others but this one i like , based on road play, teams they have beat as a dog, and defense now i do not think they will win, but they should cover the spread ..line is 20.5 but just because i am spending -135 and grabbing 21.5 i do think they keep this to 13-15 pts
Minnesota +21.5 -135
some other trends
Golden Gophers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on fieldturf.
Hot: Golden Gophers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
Hot: Golden Gophers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Cold: Hoosiers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games.
Cold: Hoosiers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Cold: Hoosiers are 0-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
GL
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@Mskeets
be interessting to see how they play from now on since they are out of the playoff picture, i was driving last night when i seen the score 21-14 JMU and the line was just JMU -3.5 it did go to 9.5 when JMU was at the 40 of Troy in the 3rd but it just felt that Troy could win after that, i was surprised they did, did not see any of the game,
got the over 72.5 and was glad it even went over the kickoff # too .........
1-1 thurssday
adding some Saturday plays ...and some i havent mentioned well maybe
Minnesota at Indiana Indiana coming back home after the OT win at Michigan, and Minnesota coming in after after winning outright at home vs Iowa as a 7 pt dog , in this one i am taking Minnesota here and the points, this team has beaten Michigan, Beaten Iowa, won at Washington all as a dog, the one thing they do is keep games lower scoring, play field position and i just think its too many points, and just how they have played on the road this year, now i usually post some trends with my plays, but i do not play games based on trends, i have said in the past after looking into a game and deciding who i like sometimes i will then see if i can find some trends that support it if so then maybe i like it a bit more, Minnesota is 8-0 ats as a dog of >8 points when coming off a SU dog win ...there are others but this one i like , based on road play, teams they have beat as a dog, and defense now i do not think they will win, but they should cover the spread ..line is 20.5 but just because i am spending -135 and grabbing 21.5 i do think they keep this to 13-15 pts
Minnesota +21.5 -135
some other trends
Golden Gophers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on fieldturf.
Hot: Golden Gophers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
Hot: Golden Gophers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Cold: Hoosiers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games.
Cold: Hoosiers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Cold: Hoosiers are 0-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
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