L2T Week 5 Plays

3 - 2 ATS/Totals last week +HALF U gain after starting 3 - 0  > that late Washington game killed me and I also lost a lot of local tickets siding with GTECH ml winning at half by 10 and then coughing up 24  pts in the second half, mostly in the 3rd Q

Early season is a grind!

Season record: 14 - 16 ATS/Totals

Parlay record (posted+ soccer mix/ncaaf): almost +$1200

Teasers: -getting my ass kicked !

Spot a play right out of the gate .... 12 NOON game Navy/Air Force > playing in Colorado

Play #1 - Navy - Air Force UNDER 46.5 x 1U

-10am game for Navy players and traditionally, this game at elevation is low scoring with these two clubs who run the ball well and of note, Air Force is defending the pass well also ....and Navy has 2 decent QBs but best one will be out very likely 

Going through matchups today and tomorrow comparing update SP+ and checking injury reports

Hope you had a good Week 4 > Favorites ATS went 35 - 22 - 1  in WEEK 4

- Vegas tends to adjust the following week so keep an eye out for some good dog lines

Play #2 - New Mexico -22.5 x 1U

-if this drops (highly doubt it will), I would buy one more Unit 

-their defense is sublime and once NM gets the lead, they can run on you all day long while you throw on the #1 team in college for turnovers and takeaways ...... UTEP is one of the worst offenses (128 SP+) and (135 SP+) defense 

- looking at their schedule, you just might see NM finish with 1 loss and a nice bowl game 

Play #3 - Texas St -3.5 x HALF U

-SDSU is in disarray with their QB situation it appears.... best QB is 5 TD/5INTs mind you, that is against tougher competition but Texas St can move the ball and put pressure on these SDSU QB's to play catch up and make mistakes..... on a small line, its an acceptible number to go with the better offense vs a very tired San Diego team that played in Toledo one way jet lag and now has to adjust the other way

I have 19 Sides and 2 Totals that I see can possibly be exploited with skewed numbers or injury issues and numbers too wide or narrow so going to focus on these and may have a couple/few more out of that bunch....definitely not playing TEASERS 

Good luck this week 

Thanks Doc 

time for you get hot Thirst 

best to you this week my friend 

Bol this week L2T

Thanks VanKiep 

Hoo!  Good to see you posting which means you are feeling better ...awesome!

Time to move on another Total .... UCF with a strong defense and offensive mix that keeps scores low.....can I see Houston scoring 35 - 38 on UCF? Sure, but if they do, I think it comes late and then UCF will give up the fight to match scoring and just run plays to finish the game 

UCF = 13-16 pts tops

Houston = 35 - 38 tops 

Play #4 - UCF-Houston UNDER 51.5 x HALF U

Question: Is this Calif - UNLV not too low at 53.5?? Both can score, both give up a lot of points....I think UNLV travelled so going to look into injures 

BOL this week .........

You probably already know....

  >> Bill C's stuff is best accessed thru his twitter profile page (google docs)..... ats point differential, with totals is very useful... getting better every year - by far the closest to Vegas' numbers  

BOL this week .........

You probably already know....

  >> Bill C's stuff is best accessed thru his twitter profile page (google docs)..... ats point differential, with totals is very useful... getting better every year - by far the closest to Vegas' numbers  

 always gotta see what you are  thinking Thirst. Nice to see a Hoo sighting. Good luck. Much respect

.

BA 

Leroy 

Thanks 

Just sticking to measures and principles....I feel a start of a good stream of results hopefully ....last week's distilled plays went 3 - 0 and I should have just laid off that Minny - Washington game 

@Last2thirst

 Cal is 1-3 O/U; their games avg 7 points less than posted total

UNLV is 0-4 O/U; their games avg over 12 points less than the posted total.  This is 4th highest in NCAA 

Total is lower than you think it should be for a reason - Good Fortune! 

Great stats....I have not made a move on it yet. 

Thank you and  this week!

i agree on the SDSU play, i just do not know why its only 3.5 was all over James Madison at sdsu, and i thought +2.5 at toledo was way off  i just do not know why they are only getting 3.5  gl