L2T Week 0/1

i'm rarin' to go!! 

That said, my in depth prep is not done. I am already picking up some patterns from last couple of years in Week0/1 . 

Frankly, I won't look at any lines for a while since there are 3 weeks to go. Fun to do, but I don't want to fall in love with teams and overthink things until I am done completely and its a bit of a mine field betting many plays in the first 2-3 weeks in my opinion. 

I am mulling an idea 'flood the zone' of a pattern of type of game matchups  that I am already picking up by 'spreadsheet-ing' every game for the past 2 years for each week (I am only doing each week of 2024 and 2025).

I won't go back to 2023 or further .....we are living in a new world of TRANSFER + RECRUTING dynamics for coaches to set up/mix well their teams and only the last 2 yrs are we seeing any kind of variance that could start to show up in the numbers as patterns. 

Time will tell. If pattern betting fails in the first 2-3 weeks, I will kick to the curb for sure and not even bother next season. While I have done an extensive dive into who added what as far as quality goes, onto their teams, I just feel that sometimes you have to be flexible and not stubborn each week on what you are looking for .....let the number or situation dictate your decision instead.

This season:

1U = $100 / standard return in BET365 = $190 on a win bet of $100

(unless I state the odds higher or more juice applied)

Half = $50 / standard return = $95 

Looking forward to seeing who everyone likes and kudos to the ones that are first out the gate.... 

I will drop some observations of things I am seeing in my spreadsheet looking back at week0/1 the past two seasons.

I tend to suck in the first couple of weeks each year so I wouldn't recommend following what I do but rather, you might hopefully see something in each thread that makes sense for you to use.

 NCAAF season soon... 

Last 2 Seasons (Week 0/1): - Some Key Findings (Top 4 Conferences)

-teams that close with a line of Even to -6.5  = 10 - 6 - 1 ATS 

-teams from the Top 2 Conferences are just = 35 - 31 - 1 ATS  

-***BUT when the Top 2 Conferences play a 1A team = 18 - 5 ATS (no matter how high the spread)

- teams in the ACC/BIG12 however vs 1A schools  = 11 - 20 ATS 

Notable Slow Starters in Week 0/1 ATS as favorites 2024 and 2025:

Indiana 0 - 2

Michigan 0 - 2 

Mich  St  0 - 2

Wisconsin  0 - 2

Texas AM  0 - 2

Duke   0 - 2

Wake F  0 - 2

NC St   0 - 2

K-State  0 - 2

Houston  0 - 2

Fast Starters ATS as favorites:

Maryland 2 - 0

Purdue  2 - 0

Tennessee 2 - 0

Auburn  2 - 0

Missouri  2 - 0 

Ole Miss  2 - 0 

Miss St  2 - 0 

Virginia  2 - 0 

Pitts  2 - 0 

BYU  2 - 0

Zona  2 - 0

Just looked at the release of the AP poll and the teams and their placings....

It couldn't be more obvious, the stacking of BIG10 teams 1-2 as top contenders and 3 of the Top 6 to be nothing more than a motivational factor for SEC teams...... lots of season left to demonstrate who is the best.

Oregon has to prove they have a defense that can stop a top team....

Oho St has to prove they didn't lose too much defense, have the right co-ordinator to keep things going and a QB that is a maybe leader and finishing when the going gets rough, though extremely accurate and talented.

I look forward to see how things play out 

In process of liking some lines for week 0/1 but nothing confirmed yet. What I liked upon first/second pass before digging in for WEEK 0:

WEEK 0 

USC -38.5

Hawaii +5.5

New Mex St +31.5

Memphis +6.5 

BUYING:

USC -38.5 x 1U

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....mulling a change of thought on FSU facing a new QB at NMST ....BUT.... he has size as a transfer /but little mobility so what kind of run game and line will they have for RB and protection? FSU might stack the box so this QB bet hit his short passes/slants on first down so I am focused now on how many points can NMST get on offense and what does Norval have planned for the second half use of his team....TBD as of now 

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BUYING:

Hawaii +5.5 x HALF U  > Coach with a strong first week record and  vs Power 4 teams ....Stanford looks like they recruited well but not so much in transfers

Might do a ML play for $20 as well @+185  ....still digging for info on how strong their defense looks for Rainbow Warriors and coaches comments 

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Watching the TOTAL on TCU/UNC >> UNC with only 6 returning starters / TCU with UCONN OC and playing a more traditional style of offense this season at TCU apparently so I think that falls into Bellischek's instincts a little more in preparation >> i am leaning UNDER but want a better number than 47.5 

@Last2thirst

 BOL! 

Thanks Boise 

Good riff.... really into Rush lately again especially with the very cool drummer Anika ...she is sick!

But take me back to a concert I saw in Montreal and then in Toronto in 81' and they killed it on XANADU

You got me in the spirit, thanks man 

@Last2thirst

Love Rush too 

Truth be told @IamDog , I can listen to music anytime and do on some epic evenings that I listen in my sublime setup in- house Denon and Polk speaker system built for that + movies and also have a killer Klipsch subwoofer that brings it all together and the house can shake but the punch/clarity is like its live band in front of you.....and those are my favorite evenings but rarely do those nights matter when I am focused on what has become my other big joy (besides horses and the stock market) and that is COLLEGE SPORTS!

Lets make some money this year and if we don't, we have great music to fall back on like RUSH, JUDAS PRIEST....hell, even like Dolly Parton who has an angelic voice that is only outshone by her humanity and care for community and people .... GOD BLESS a great woman/human being and will miss her almost as much as losing Ozzy Osbourne last summer .... 

Might have another play in my sights and an upbet on Hawaii and this time I am strongly leaning to a +3.5 alternative line and ML bet ....50/50 ....mulling it over

thirst, best to you brother 

Very, very Happy to see you Wahoo  

@Last2thirst

BOL this season my friend!!!

Always appreciate all of the work you put in and share with the board!!!

Let hit some pinatas and cash-party! Great to see you Felix. I had to abandon the MLB season but to the benefit of being more prepared for college football....

Wishing you lots of success 

I am really liking this 'new' USC offense ....quite a bit more short passing and ball control

That said,Maiava is a touch slow to his outside read that is short and Lincoln is gonna need to work on selling the run a little more to hit the quick seam hitter against fast safeties and LBs dropping into passing lanes ....watching some great hands up the middle for USC and Maiva's passes are pure in that area of the field 

21 - 0 with about 4 min to half..... SJST on defense does not look brutal despite a whole new set of personel

I think Hawaii did this a lot last year early on and vs some tough opponents..... fall behind and then find their stride offensively while their strong defense controlled the second half.

Hawaii up 27 - 23 late 

i did do parlays locally at +3.5 and ML on a lot of tickets mixed with soccer plays that I am winning on many of them like Athletico MG earlier, Nashville in MLS and got Colorodo mixed on some tickets and Heracles a Erste Division strong team in Netherlands early tomorrow morning 

- I made a killed in $5-10 parlays with soccer plays and MLB in the first two months of the season but then I sucked haha...using soccer parlays now with NCAAF.... I might throw some out starting next week if anyone is interested

Wow, what a crazy turnaround here for Stanford  up by 10 now. I am definitely ripping up tickets here unless I can get a TD in 1 minute 

Gotta love NCAAF drama haha

Tale of the Tape from Week 0:

Personal Sides = 0 - 2  (-1.5U) > typical start for me unfortunately

Follows = 2 - 0 (+1.5) ** when I press on a follow, I will give a shoutout to that nick for sure (I follow more at the beginning weeks and the end of the season) > used Virginia ML and USC Over 60.5 

Soccer Parlay Mixers: - $5-10 wheels (3 to 4 way parlays) >> tend to use 1 follower NCAAF play and 1 play of mine

**I must follow and watch patterns in 30 leagues?? > won't hunch bet / only patterns or correct score tips using to gauge how to play TOTALS and have two very strong soccer prediction sites that help me find angles/gem plays plus whatever I pick up from my own pattern observations 

Saturday soccer plays went = 8 - 4 ( 7 keys wheeled from this group >  keys went 5 - 2 )

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Today > pure $5 mixers (with Georgia Tech ML or Toledo +10.5)  = 4 - 0 so far in soccer (keys 2 - 0)

Still to settle today > Casa Pia Over 2.5 (Portugal), Argentino Jrs (key), Under 2.5 Flamengo (Brazil), Under 2.5 Bahia (Brazil), Under 2.5 Pisa (Italy B), Toluca -1.5 (key- Mexico)

Note: I tend to do 2x soccer + 1 football / 1 strong paying Key soccer with 2 other soccer or 1 football

long season my friend, you’ll get it going, a thirst run is coming 

Week 1 Plays I am strongly considering.... 

Georgia Tech ML - already made parlays using it based on a Colorado revamp although they should be very strong at QB 

Toledo +10.5 (not confirmed play yet) - should have strong team again/solid coach > Sparty should be better as well but Toledo plays P4 teams usually within reach of 2 scores 

Okie St/ Tulsa 0v 60.5 - both teams with strong revamps and lots of offense > just have to determine how strong the defenses are at this point and offensive preparedness to meet a total like this early

-Tulsa rated 4th best transfer/recruiting freshman Quality out of P6 schools

-Okie St with N.Texas team basically transferred to their school > Eric Morris brings uptempo/high scoring offense

Colorado St -3.5  << watching line and hoping for -3 / Under 48.5 << likely go this way and  ML for parlays 

-71st best recruiting by transfer/freshman and 7th best for P6 schools

-125th best for Wyoming overall

*** Jim Mora with excellent turnaround record at UCONN and general record with UCLA = 73 - 53 career

-facing Jay Sawvel with a 7 - 17 career record in only his second season

- CSU expected 4.5-5.5 project PAC-12 wins / Wyoming 5.5 MW

-returning defense at Wyoming expected to be strong/good offensive line but 131st ranked offense last year and lost key players to transfer but should be a strong  running team again  / Col St offense expected to be better and have good defensive line additions to counter run

-some strong coaches at OC/DC 

USF -13.5 

-USF expected to lead AAC while FIU will be improved and win total set at 6.5 in CUSA so potential bowl team  but AAC looks to be a stronger league

LSU -10.5 

- this game might be a stomp in Death Valley > Clemson came out of the gate last year with a whimper and lots of adrenaline in Louisana right out the gate with a far more talented team and craftier coach and likely much more team speed 

W.Michigan +28.5

- yes Michigan will be strong and have a dynamic QB BUT .... new coach, lesser defense? and generally do not come out strong out the gate unless they outclass the other team by a lot and WMU has a 7.5 win OVER/UNDER line and will be very motivated to put up points on a defense that will be likely Top 10 in the country again > so 13-17 pts are possible and does Michigan score 45??

Hawaii +2.5 /ML > their defense is pretty good and will be stronger on home turf than they were vs Stanford/ QB is good -experienced and definitely is stronger playing at home / just need to get sharper on offense and they could have beaten Stanford in week 1 as they had the lead going into the last 2 minutes of game

NOTE: - these are games that are catching my eye and no confirmed SIDES /TOTALS yet for Week #1

Ya, I am not too concerned @Wahoo ....appreciate the encouragement 

Great to see you in great form out the gate  .... thanks for the Virginia tip   which I used ML to cash some of my parlay wheels using weekend soccer plays

Play #1 - battle of DEATH VALLEY teams home and home (LSU won 17-10 @ Clemson last season)

 LSU -10.5 x 1U > will splash MORE on -10 bet when I get alt lines up in BET365 if this line stays this way through the week

- will likely add to this bet 

-#1 SEC defense playing at home (#3 defense rated overall) and jacked up facing a good sized redshirted junior in Vizzina and a strong #16 overall Clemson defense that will have to be on their toes with a very balanced LSU offense with a lot of optionality with strong RBs, a mobile QB who throws well on the run or can be pocket QB and blazing speed and rated 6th best receiving corps in the country

-Clemson allowed 28 for 38 last year to Nussmeir and now the defense at LSU is that much better likely facing a QB making his first start in his college career out the gate game #1?

-how will the defense for Clemson handle Leavitt? ...and Durham got 74 yds and 5 yds per carry avg last year and now have to handle Kiffen's play calling offensive wizardry with a better QB who has more optionality for Kiffen to work play calls with??

I think Mich secondary is going to be elite. There’s a ton of talent across the DL, particularly like the edge group. LBs total wild card - like NOB but there’s no real proven guys there. Tough place to lack experience imo. 

Offense - man if Bryce underwood figures it out they could be really special. Quite a few very good targets to throw too this year, the OL is experienced now and should be more of what we’re used to seeing when JH was around, good depth too. J Marshall is a good back, but watch out for the freshman Hiter. Think he is going to take over the lead role before too long. Kids a stud. 

Biggest thing is they have an actual coach this year who knows what’s going on. New OC has a history of taking over offenses and immediately catapaulting them up the charts. Sky is the limit with all the pieces but it entirely hinges on the QB - which until we see it is a huge ?. 

No real opinion on the first game, but definitely excited about the potential of this group!