L2T Week 0/1

Hey, HockeyNight, appreciate the intel and details on Michigan and I trust no one more to know than you  ..... I want to fade the first game but ya, I have to look into this more from the Broncos perspective.

Would love to hear your thoughts on USC ..... did you watch the game?

I look forward to your rating system.... I need to watch USC against a strong team and credit to Weaver the QB at SJST for playing well and the secondary hanging in with a Maiava slingfest that could have really opened things up if Lincoln wanted to show his playbook a little more.

Soccer parlays I will mine with my first play (LSU -10.5) and any others I like after inspection .....PLUS one selection from someone else in the forum 

Soccer wheels for the week for triple/some quad parlays for $5 or $10:

#1 PLAY - keyed on most tickets

Luton/Stockport Over 2.5  (1.65) - England League One (Wednesday)

#2 PLAY - will appear as a combo on many tickets

Almere City ML (1.45) - Erste Division Netherlands (Friday)

#3 PLAY - will appear as a combo on many tickets 

Y. Boys ML (1.52) - Swiss Super League (Sat noon)

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Combos for Monday- add one to mix with some:

Barcelona Under 3.5 goals

Jong PSV /Jong Ajax Over 3.5 goals (Erste Div. Netherlands)

St Etienne ML  (France Ligue 2)

Instituto ML (Argentina)

Tuesday:

West Ham/Wolves Over 2.5 - England Championship league

Stoke/Norwich Over 2.5  (same league)

Wednesday:

Wimbledon Under 2.5 (League One)

GL if you use any of these with some NCAAF plays in parlays this week..... 

@Last2thirst

I feel less than prepared coming in this season to be honest. I need to have a big week of studying 

Didnt watch much of USC. Seemed like they were rolling right along and then took their foot off the gas. Are teams thinking more long term now as opposed to style points? Depth and health are bigger than ever in an expanded playoff. I still question their ability to play in the B1G, especially with how good the conference is at the top now. They feel kind of like Michigan used to… are they gonna just middle their way to a 9-3 year that’s not enough or are they ever going to take the next step?

Im a little high on Michigan this year. I admittedly always try to find the optimistic side, but man they won 9 games a year ago with a coach that clearly had zero preparation week to week and internal issues. Like to the point guys were getting playing time because they knew about the head coaches secrets and leveraged it. So dysfunctional. I expect this staff to do a lot with the talent in the room. Again if 19 is improving, sky’s the limit. If not, good luck with that schedule!

Play #2 - Fresno St +22.5 x 1U   (BET365)

- SJST had to revamp their whole defensive unit for the season

- Fresno St has one of the best in the Pac12 and have recruited strongly for the 2026 season on both sides of the ball and projected to be a 6.5-7.5 win team

-I am reading a lot about Patterson the USC DC being pissed off with how USC performed in the 4th Q

- USC's stud Defensive lineman Jakheem Stewart is going to miss this one most likely as they are not going to risk him until Rutgers although Lincoln says he could start Friday (that is b.s. since they want him ready and fully healed from surgery for Rutgers and Oregon games) ....talk is his hairline fracture reappeared after surgery and just needs time to fully heal and he was seen in a boot for SJST game 

-will USC get 6 TDs on a much stronger defense of Fresno? < I doubt it ..... let's give them 4 TDs and possibly 5 and one FG or 4 TDs and 2-3 FGs I am expecting....so that leaves the USC total likely at around 35 -38 pts 

- will USC tighten up facing a dual threat QB who still has to prove himself as a strong former Maryland mop up player who could move the ball.... SJST QB Weaver was able to run when he pleased for 1st downs vs USC ....Fresno has a good ground game coming back and I noticed last season despite having Curt Warner's son with the ability to sling the ball, they only got him about 170-230 yds a game throwing so balance is what they strive for and moving the chains 

-I can see 13-17 pts from Fresno conservatively with an improved focus on defense by USC demanded by Lincoln+DC but not with the rotation of their defense that much better in one week with not all key defensive players influencing the line of scrimmage 

Losing score for me would be 38 - 13 but not 38 - 17 ..... and I will call a 37 - 16 score at best so I see value in the spread and I think the TOTAL may be too low here but maybe not ....I definitely think if  they sit out Maiava for the 4th Q again, Williams will not have as much success scoring a TD and Fresno DC just might scheme up something to keep Mosely from gobbling up big junks sustaining drives for USC 

I will likely play the TOTAL in game after watching Martin the new QB for Fresno handle the offense and see how the play mix is going .... 66 pts scored in first USC game and now the Total is 51.5?  

Everything I read from the USC camp is to NOT run up scores quickly early on in the year since there is no reason for style points yet (which I misread for game #1 and SJST defense were better than expected having watched the game) and focus on getting better on defense, staying healthy for Oregon game and developing their team on a trajectory that allows them to go for style points later in the season as they will need that if they can get one win from a schedule of Indiana, Oho St and Oregon, as well as a trip to Penn St where it will be a must win to have any consideration for the Playoffs 

USC's schedule should provide them with a strong SOS for consideration for Playoff but 9 - 3 was not good enough to make the Playoffs. I highly doubt they can walk into Indiana and beat the Hoosiers unless they are having QB issues at the time .... and so Oregon is likely their shot at home 

I could be completely wrong on this Fresno St being a stronger team to stage a gauge by Lincoln of how strong is USC at right now and we see a 38 - 10  type of score...... or 34 - 13 which would be better for me and hoping Fresno's new kicker can be decent and convert a couple FGs

Chances you take right?

I will be focusing on BIG10 games, because I have found a very interesting stat that carries over the past 2 seasons of transfer climate and results that BIG10 teams get vs Power 6 Conference teams....

Play #3 - consideration Washington -23.5 or a playing on the Total 50.5  

-this has the makings of a dominant showing by the home team but since its a first game, chances are we do not get nearly the number of pts that happened last year (43 - 45 pts is a regular game total)

-last year, Washington came into the game missing 3 key players but still walloped the Cougars in their building

-Demond Williams for Huskies enters his 3rd season after a strong year last year and behind him is a talented offense and defense

-Wash St OV/UN win total is roughly 5.5 as the number varied widely

- new coach and new QB to break in with strong 1A numbers last yr but right away has to face a monster like defense ranked 20th going into the season and the team 17th overall

I am willing to give Wash St 13-14 pts but I do expect the Huskies to score at least 5 TDs  with most drives having a chance to score .....the question I want to know, will the coach protect his players in the 4th Q if up by 3-4 scores? Still digging 

Chances are he won't in a rivalry game! This game line is on watch for me

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Despite my like of the above BIG10 team, I am now focusing on a stat that I have uncovered by inputting all results in Week 0/1 in 2025 and 2024 involving BIG 10 teams vs another type of team.....

I am proposing a Parlay wheel of about 6-8 teams for $5-$10 each fading the BIG10 side of the spread for 3-4 teams at a time and combining one soccer play I am eyeing on Saturday to boost it

I will introduce the 6-8 BIG10 games I will fade to achiever a record of 1-5 or 2-6 out of 6 - 8 games .... and I also hope to find one play to do a SIDE BET for a couple of Units, but still digging 

There are 12 Big10 games in week 0/1 with one completed, and 11 more games to come with a POWER 4 Team facing a Power 6 team

ATS Results this week(s):

2025 > Power 4 teams from BIG10 are 2 - 9 ATS vs Power 6 opponents

2024 > Power 4 teams from BIG10 are 2 - 6 ATS vs Power 6 opponents 

I am selecting about 8 games to wheel around to lose ATS in 3 game wheels (all losing ATS) and 4 game wheels with (all losing ATS except 1 team) .... the digging continues

2026 Record for BIG10 = 0 - 1 ATS

Ok, I made my moves on fading the following BIG10 games > fade the favorite in Week #1 according to my research, when a BIG10 TEAM plays a Power 6 school and favorite

Last 2 yrs + 1 this year already, Big10 teams only cover 2 - 16 ATS   against power 6 schools

(2 - 9 in 2025 Week0/1)

Half Unit Plays Each  on these Sides played last night but just reporting now with break at work:

Plays #3 to #9

Toledo +9.5 x HALF U

N.Texas +40.5 x HALF U

Ohio +24.5 x HALF U

Boise +24.5 x HALF U

Marshall +24.5 x HALF U

W.Michigan +27.5 x HALF U

Took Texas St +30.5 x HALF U as a non-BIG10 play besides my LSU grab early .... Texas faces a motivated in state talented P6 team and I doubt Sarkisian will have any motivation to let all starters play the full game with BUCKEYES on deck for an early Game of the Year match next week....... he might as well resign if a couple key players go down. Texas St is talented, had a good recruitment in tranfer and freshman and have a very good QB 

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Laid off of these BIG10 big lines because of situational numbers and their opponents strengths:

Ohio St -50.5 might cover to get ready for Texas including a defense score or two

Iowa -31.5 > don't see NIU getting more than 7-9 pts and I see Iowa with at least 5 TDs potentially more... as they have some talent and moving toward a new style of offense...NIU are expected to be brutal stopping the run and Moulton/Phillips should be good for 2-3 TDs alone behind this wonder Offensive line

Washington -23.5 > Cougars might be fodder for a revved up home team starting the year with so much talent on both sides of the ball, and no injuries reported with a dynamic QB and lots of speed and ability everywhere ....Cougars have a new coach and QB and have to figure out some things against this opponent when they lost to them last year on their home field with Huskies having 2 key defenders out and one on offense 

Might actually have another play or 3 later this week...

I just got through my Week 1 numbers and this is what I got for each of the Power 4 Conferences vs Power 6:

RECORD ATS Week #1 vs Power 6 Conferences - Past 2 Seasons:

BIG10 = 3 - 15 ** found error in original number 

SEC =   6 - 4 

ACC =   4- 4 

BIG12 = 4 - 3 

RECORD ATS Week #1 vs other Power 4 Conferences - Past 2 Seasons:

BIG10 = 4 - 2 - 1

SEC =    5 - 6 

ACC =    8 - 7 - 1

BG12 =  4 - 4

Digging into the past couple of seasons for Week 2 now.... my angle this week with little to go by is to fade the BIG10 ...maybe I find something in Week 2

Thanks for sharing your thoughts. Michigan State has a fired up new head coach who is a proven winner. Toledo lost their coach and a ton of talent. Not sure the new coach will have the same magic as the former Coach Candle.

I'm also sharing that I've seen/read/heard a lot of good people on Colorado. It surprises me. Allegedly, this will be the Buffs best offensive line under Sanders. It is also the most heavily bet of any game so far. The line keeps creeping towards Colorado. Maybe tease the Buffs to plus 7 1/2 for minus 138. Even plus 10 1/2 is minus 185. 

I also see UCLA winning. Looking more into it. Love the new coach. The line came out with Cal favored, but UCLA is favored now.

Good luck

River,

Thank you 

I have a weird feeling on the line action with Colorado for sure..... but I do know ACC/BIG12 teams in my stats have a strong record covering lines -6.5 to -10 as favorites early on this past couple of season

Watching this GTECH - COLORADO game for some good intel.....

I tell you what, if Colorado can get their freshman QB going with their run game, they can be something! Their OFF LINE is bullying GTECH....on every run, short down, you name it.

GTECH has some nice pieces but when they face a team that can run the ball with a strong QB, they will get roasted!

I expect KEY to adjust his defense or work on technique because every team they face will watch this film.....

Mendoza for GTECH looks polished like his brother and is accurate but not the same arm zip ...yet. 

I do line some final lines with adjustments in one

Colorado St -2.5 @1.75 x 1U

-solid kicker and some nice parts and I am a Jim Mora fan especially to have his team ready and motivated

Toledo +10.5 ....x another HALF U @1.86 ...its taking a late night rise so I am comfortable with this number

Teaser 7 pts x HALF U >  3 way pays +110 each:

> Liberty to +13.5 with Marshall to +31.5 with Texas St to +36.5

> Liberty to +13.5 with Iowa UNDER to 51.5 with W. Michigan to +35 

> BYU to Under 68.5 with Hawaii +10.5 with Irish -13.5