Play #2 - Fresno St +22.5 x 1U (BET365)
- SJST had to revamp their whole defensive unit for the season
- Fresno St has one of the best in the Pac12 and have recruited strongly for the 2026 season on both sides of the ball and projected to be a 6.5-7.5 win team
-I am reading a lot about Patterson the USC DC being pissed off with how USC performed in the 4th Q
- USC's stud Defensive lineman Jakheem Stewart is going to miss this one most likely as they are not going to risk him until Rutgers although Lincoln says he could start Friday (that is b.s. since they want him ready and fully healed from surgery for Rutgers and Oregon games) ....talk is his hairline fracture reappeared after surgery and just needs time to fully heal and he was seen in a boot for SJST game
-will USC get 6 TDs on a much stronger defense of Fresno? < I doubt it ..... let's give them 4 TDs and possibly 5 and one FG or 4 TDs and 2-3 FGs I am expecting....so that leaves the USC total likely at around 35 -38 pts
- will USC tighten up facing a dual threat QB who still has to prove himself as a strong former Maryland mop up player who could move the ball.... SJST QB Weaver was able to run when he pleased for 1st downs vs USC ....Fresno has a good ground game coming back and I noticed last season despite having Curt Warner's son with the ability to sling the ball, they only got him about 170-230 yds a game throwing so balance is what they strive for and moving the chains
-I can see 13-17 pts from Fresno conservatively with an improved focus on defense by USC demanded by Lincoln+DC but not with the rotation of their defense that much better in one week with not all key defensive players influencing the line of scrimmage
Losing score for me would be 38 - 13 but not 38 - 17 ..... and I will call a 37 - 16 score at best so I see value in the spread and I think the TOTAL may be too low here but maybe not ....I definitely think if they sit out Maiava for the 4th Q again, Williams will not have as much success scoring a TD and Fresno DC just might scheme up something to keep Mosely from gobbling up big junks sustaining drives for USC
I will likely play the TOTAL in game after watching Martin the new QB for Fresno handle the offense and see how the play mix is going .... 66 pts scored in first USC game and now the Total is 51.5?
Everything I read from the USC camp is to NOT run up scores quickly early on in the year since there is no reason for style points yet (which I misread for game #1 and SJST defense were better than expected having watched the game) and focus on getting better on defense, staying healthy for Oregon game and developing their team on a trajectory that allows them to go for style points later in the season as they will need that if they can get one win from a schedule of Indiana, Oho St and Oregon, as well as a trip to Penn St where it will be a must win to have any consideration for the Playoffs
USC's schedule should provide them with a strong SOS for consideration for Playoff but 9 - 3 was not good enough to make the Playoffs. I highly doubt they can walk into Indiana and beat the Hoosiers unless they are having QB issues at the time .... and so Oregon is likely their shot at home
I could be completely wrong on this Fresno St being a stronger team to stage a gauge by Lincoln of how strong is USC at right now and we see a 38 - 10 type of score...... or 34 - 13 which would be better for me and hoping Fresno's new kicker can be decent and convert a couple FGs
Chances you take right?
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
..... I want to fade the first game but ya, I have to look into this more from the Broncos perspective.
against power 6 schools
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