Record stands @ 6-4 + 2,737.00. Lost my last posted play on that epic meltdown by Cal being up 3 TD’s @ Hawaii. Crazy. I move on. This is a MAX play because, I think Iowa is the better team here and they will probably win SU. When I cap this game , Vandy wins by no more than a FG if that. Last night when I started capping this game, the spread was- 5.5 , it’s dropped a 1.5 overnight. That’s 100 % wise guy , smart $ hitting Iowa extremely hard. “ PFF “ Power overall strength has Iowa ranked 14th , Vandy @ 13th. On defense Iowa ranked @ 10th , Vandy @ a lowly 76th. Offense Iowa @ 20th , and Vandy @ 3rd nationally much closer there. Iowa runs the ball over 57% of the time, which means, they’ll possess the ball more and eventually wear down Vandy’s defense. EPA per run Iowa ranked + 0.10 & Vandy is @ + 0.11. EPA in the passing game, Iowa is negative @ - 0.08 whereas Vandy is strong in the passing game @ + 0.41. But , Iowa is top 5 nationally @ drop back EPA per play allowed @ - 0.260. Iowa only allowed 15.17 points a game this season, where Vandy allowed on average 21.92 pts a game. Iowa only gave up on average 15.25 1st downs a game, where Vandy allowed 21.92 1st downs. Again we will have more opportunities on offense, you will 100 % see that happen. Ferentz is 46-22-3 ATS when facing teams that average 8.0 yards or more yds attempt through the air, where Vandy is 33-12 ATS when playing against a team that run for @ least 5.25 yards a game. Dog fight. Iowa is also 6-2 ATS in December bowl games under Ferentz. Special teams: Iowa is ranked 3rd nationally on offense @ ( + 32.21 ) & 10th on defense @ ( + 25.94 ) , whereas Vandy only ranks 60th on offense @ ( 28.52 ) & 49th on defense. Vandy on defense in dropback EPA are not even in the top 50 nationally @ ( - 0.006 ) so we will run it on them and when we want to we will throw it on them. Vandy is also stronger in SOS by a few spots. Can’t find my numbers on that , sorry. This is my kind of game. A total rock fight. Everyone knows , I love teams that play defense. Iowa + 4.5 6,250/5,000 ( buy ) & + 4.5 585/500 , two separate books. I’ll probably sprinkle on the ML as well. GL to all on Iowa today..
IOWA + 4.5 vs VANDY MAX PLAY Write Up
Posted:
#20
Quote Originally Posted by jimmydafreak:
I think the most important factor for Vandy, unlike many other SEC bowl teams, they don't have anyone sitting out, so they should have their entire roster available.I really thought this line would be more like 2.5 or 3, so I love the +4.5 play.
Eli Stowers opted out. Their leading receiver
I think the most important factor for Vandy, unlike many other SEC bowl teams, they don't have anyone sitting out, so they should have their entire roster available.I really thought this line would be more like 2.5 or 3, so I love the +4.5 play.
Second mouse gets the cheese.
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