penn st did absolutely nothing against a good Ohio State defense. Usc is better than that Ohio State defense. Expect several 3 and 5's and similar results as the ohio state game
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penn st did absolutely nothing against a good Ohio State defense. Usc is better than that Ohio State defense. Expect several 3 and 5's and similar results as the ohio state game
interesting... i'm actually a bit more worried about the Utah bet than the PSU bet... will probably just sit tight with them both since i feel like i will at least go 1-1, and at (+11) i have very good value with two solid defensive teams...
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interesting... i'm actually a bit more worried about the Utah bet than the PSU bet... will probably just sit tight with them both since i feel like i will at least go 1-1, and at (+11) i have very good value with two solid defensive teams...
taking Missou (-12) and Ov (66) tonight... already on the Over for the NCSt/RU game (Ov 51)... still can't figure a side for that one... going back and forth, which tells me i shouldn't get crazy...
i am pretty sure Missouri will destroy NW, so bigger play is on the side... only way it stays close is if it goes over, so the total play is somewhat of a hedge...
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taking Missou (-12) and Ov (66) tonight... already on the Over for the NCSt/RU game (Ov 51)... still can't figure a side for that one... going back and forth, which tells me i shouldn't get crazy...
i am pretty sure Missouri will destroy NW, so bigger play is on the side... only way it stays close is if it goes over, so the total play is somewhat of a hedge...
Not meaning to disrespect, but do you factor in line movement in your plays???
Northwestern line dropped almost 2 points. Moneyline went down significantly. Consensus was on Missouri. When those things happen, I would either play Northwestern or stay away. Going with that theory, you should stay away from the Texas Tech game. Line dropped 1.5 points. Moneyline dropped. Public HUGE on Tech. Ole Miss has some talent. You should stay away from that game dude
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Ice.....
Not meaning to disrespect, but do you factor in line movement in your plays???
Northwestern line dropped almost 2 points. Moneyline went down significantly. Consensus was on Missouri. When those things happen, I would either play Northwestern or stay away. Going with that theory, you should stay away from the Texas Tech game. Line dropped 1.5 points. Moneyline dropped. Public HUGE on Tech. Ole Miss has some talent. You should stay away from that game dude
sergio... pretty sure she's already done an FHM shoot...
insight... i don't cap anything based on line movement... i cap the games and make my bets... i consider betting based on line movements to basically be guessing... line movement favors the correct bet 50% of the time and the wrong bet 50% of the time... also, the line on Missou closed at (-14)...
if you capped based on movement you would have bet the Ov on CMU/FAU, the Ov on NCSt/RU (after it went to 56), Cal (-10), and so on...
getting the Tx Tech line after it drops down to (-4) is bargain basement in my opinion... if it drops more i'll double it...
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sergio... pretty sure she's already done an FHM shoot...
insight... i don't cap anything based on line movement... i cap the games and make my bets... i consider betting based on line movements to basically be guessing... line movement favors the correct bet 50% of the time and the wrong bet 50% of the time... also, the line on Missou closed at (-14)...
if you capped based on movement you would have bet the Ov on CMU/FAU, the Ov on NCSt/RU (after it went to 56), Cal (-10), and so on...
getting the Tx Tech line after it drops down to (-4) is bargain basement in my opinion... if it drops more i'll double it...
ice im locked in on utah at + 10 and penn state + 9, rarely eat much chalk and love parlaying underdogs with unders - these games are so similar in regards to numbers total wise - starting to feel the ol formula workin in both spots - just something to consider - cashed both ways yesterday for ncsu-rutgers & mizzou -NW -BOL
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ice im locked in on utah at + 10 and penn state + 9, rarely eat much chalk and love parlaying underdogs with unders - these games are so similar in regards to numbers total wise - starting to feel the ol formula workin in both spots - just something to consider - cashed both ways yesterday for ncsu-rutgers & mizzou -NW -BOL
The late spread change was the public betting the hell out of Missouri, not the sharps. The sharps moved the line down a few days after this line came out. The moneyline also dropped significantly. Hours before the game, the public pounded Missouri...Sharp bets were in weeks before this game.
It is more than just line movement. It is line movement on underdogs, moneyline drop on underdogs, or line movement against what is clearly public perception. Let's look at Miami for example. They lost their starting qb and a few other players so the line moved up 3 points. That should be expected. The public was still on Cal though not Miami. If the line dropped from 7 to say 5 with these suspensions and public backing of Cal, it should be a red flag to you. Instead it went up and was close to 65 percent public bet. So you stay away.
Today's game is a red flag to me. The betting public loves Maryland yet this line opened at 1 and is now 3. The public betting Maryland hard and line going the other way. It would concern me as this typically indicates sharp money on Nevada. I don't cap games based on this theory, but I'm very cognizant of it and will typically stay away from a game I like if it falls into this theory.
Nevada wins by 10
Good luck on your picks though. Just trying to provide some information that has helped me over the last few years.
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Ice....
The late spread change was the public betting the hell out of Missouri, not the sharps. The sharps moved the line down a few days after this line came out. The moneyline also dropped significantly. Hours before the game, the public pounded Missouri...Sharp bets were in weeks before this game.
It is more than just line movement. It is line movement on underdogs, moneyline drop on underdogs, or line movement against what is clearly public perception. Let's look at Miami for example. They lost their starting qb and a few other players so the line moved up 3 points. That should be expected. The public was still on Cal though not Miami. If the line dropped from 7 to say 5 with these suspensions and public backing of Cal, it should be a red flag to you. Instead it went up and was close to 65 percent public bet. So you stay away.
Today's game is a red flag to me. The betting public loves Maryland yet this line opened at 1 and is now 3. The public betting Maryland hard and line going the other way. It would concern me as this typically indicates sharp money on Nevada. I don't cap games based on this theory, but I'm very cognizant of it and will typically stay away from a game I like if it falls into this theory.
Nevada wins by 10
Good luck on your picks though. Just trying to provide some information that has helped me over the last few years.
insight... i understand how "reverse line movement" works... you want to know one of the biggest reverse line movement games i saw this year? Alabama @ Tennessee...
the trouble with all of this is the assumption of which money is "public" money and which money is "sharp" money... that is a very gray area you are entering into...
the reality is that late line movement on Missou was thanks to several touts who released Missouri as a strong play... i just think all of that line movement stuff is for people who aren't (or can't) cap the games... who cares about line movement when you analyse and break down the games? basically, what you are saying is you don't feel confident enough in your own capping and assume that someone else knows more about the games than you do... and since you have no actual access to those cappers, you are making assumptions as to their bets based on what the line is doing...
the Alabama - Tennessee game was easy as shit to cap... but tons of people guessed themselves onto the wrong side because of the line movement... all you had to do was cap that game and you were on the right side...
i would rather lose a game by capping it than lose it because i was guessing which side the sharps are on... not gonna happen for me... ever! i have been betting bowl games a long time, and i have never made any bet because i thought the sharps were on a certain side, and i have always done very well... so i'm not gonna start changing what has proven to work...
appreciate the insight, but i am not ever going to give a rats ass what the public or sharps are doing...
GL!
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insight... i understand how "reverse line movement" works... you want to know one of the biggest reverse line movement games i saw this year? Alabama @ Tennessee...
the trouble with all of this is the assumption of which money is "public" money and which money is "sharp" money... that is a very gray area you are entering into...
the reality is that late line movement on Missou was thanks to several touts who released Missouri as a strong play... i just think all of that line movement stuff is for people who aren't (or can't) cap the games... who cares about line movement when you analyse and break down the games? basically, what you are saying is you don't feel confident enough in your own capping and assume that someone else knows more about the games than you do... and since you have no actual access to those cappers, you are making assumptions as to their bets based on what the line is doing...
the Alabama - Tennessee game was easy as shit to cap... but tons of people guessed themselves onto the wrong side because of the line movement... all you had to do was cap that game and you were on the right side...
i would rather lose a game by capping it than lose it because i was guessing which side the sharps are on... not gonna happen for me... ever! i have been betting bowl games a long time, and i have never made any bet because i thought the sharps were on a certain side, and i have always done very well... so i'm not gonna start changing what has proven to work...
appreciate the insight, but i am not ever going to give a rats ass what the public or sharps are doing...
for the record, the last two days for me have been incredibly lucrative for me... so there is no need to feel i am in need of any help... i have 6 or 7 different bets today (including NBA), all of them for the same amounts... and the only really crucial bets i have are the 6th and 7th pieces of an 8 team teaser... if i get those in the bag 8 is guaranteed money for me, because it covers my biggest bet of the bowl season and gives me an 8 pt middle...
i hit middles on the side of the Missou/NW game and the NCSt/RU total, along with teasers on both sides of both games... so all is well!
thanks, though... gonna stick to my guns!
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for the record, the last two days for me have been incredibly lucrative for me... so there is no need to feel i am in need of any help... i have 6 or 7 different bets today (including NBA), all of them for the same amounts... and the only really crucial bets i have are the 6th and 7th pieces of an 8 team teaser... if i get those in the bag 8 is guaranteed money for me, because it covers my biggest bet of the bowl season and gives me an 8 pt middle...
i hit middles on the side of the Missou/NW game and the NCSt/RU total, along with teasers on both sides of both games... so all is well!
may regret it, but i took out a teaser to hedge my bets and give me a bit of a middle... has worked the past two nights so i'll roll with it... have Nev (+3.5), Ov 54 and Ore (+8.5)...
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may regret it, but i took out a teaser to hedge my bets and give me a bit of a middle... has worked the past two nights so i'll roll with it... have Nev (+3.5), Ov 54 and Ore (+8.5)...
may regret it, but i took out a teaser to hedge my bets and give me a bit of a middle... has worked the past two nights so i'll roll with it... have Nev (+3.5), Ov 54 and Ore (+8.5)...
gave away money...
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Quote Originally Posted by Ice4Blood:
may regret it, but i took out a teaser to hedge my bets and give me a bit of a middle... has worked the past two nights so i'll roll with it... have Nev (+3.5), Ov 54 and Ore (+8.5)...
thanks insight! if you hadn't posted that i wouldn't have known they stunk it up today... nice to see i can lump you in with the million other fucknutts who insist on piling on after someone already lost money on the game...
well done!
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thanks insight! if you hadn't posted that i wouldn't have known they stunk it up today... nice to see i can lump you in with the million other fucknutts who insist on piling on after someone already lost money on the game...
ice--dont let the bastards get you down,,your world,,your picks, lets close strong --locked and loaded here on texas -8 ,,under (77) ballstate - tulsa,,and fla at - 3,,will pounce on buffalo at +7.5 and may even nibble on +7-- 13 -9 bowling so far and lookin to bang out the season in style with a nice 4 pack
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ice--dont let the bastards get you down,,your world,,your picks, lets close strong --locked and loaded here on texas -8 ,,under (77) ballstate - tulsa,,and fla at - 3,,will pounce on buffalo at +7.5 and may even nibble on +7-- 13 -9 bowling so far and lookin to bang out the season in style with a nice 4 pack
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get em ice
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