Insight... reread my previous post... you can be someone here who makes a positive contribution, or someone who snipes other people's threads without ever going out on a limb yourself... people like you are the reason the real cappers never stick around...
i've posted 20 winners and 15 losers... that may not be stellar, but at least i posted them and took some accountability for them... all you've done is jumped around on people's threads trashing them when you can, but remaining invisible when you can't...
you... are... garbage! get off my thread you loser!
where is your post giving me credit for Utah? or for hitting two of my top plays with Georgia and VT yesterday? you were nowhere to be found for those... but you jump on to trash me for 1 fucking loss...
go fuck yourself, loser!
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Insight... reread my previous post... you can be someone here who makes a positive contribution, or someone who snipes other people's threads without ever going out on a limb yourself... people like you are the reason the real cappers never stick around...
i've posted 20 winners and 15 losers... that may not be stellar, but at least i posted them and took some accountability for them... all you've done is jumped around on people's threads trashing them when you can, but remaining invisible when you can't...
you... are... garbage! get off my thread you loser!
where is your post giving me credit for Utah? or for hitting two of my top plays with Georgia and VT yesterday? you were nowhere to be found for those... but you jump on to trash me for 1 fucking loss...
and regardless of anything YOU have said (since you have provided no "insight"), i am changing my pick on Texas because the Big 12 is a pile of shit conference, and Ohio St is going to beat UT outright... but rest assured, that is a decision that has ZERO to do with you...
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and regardless of anything YOU have said (since you have provided no "insight"), i am changing my pick on Texas because the Big 12 is a pile of shit conference, and Ohio St is going to beat UT outright... but rest assured, that is a decision that has ZERO to do with you...
nc1... i don't agree with the Buffalo pick, although i got UConn at (-4), and Buff (+7.5) might be a winner... but i do agree with Tulsa and OU... the Big 12 is defenseless, and the MAC is complete and utter trash! Tulsa will thrash them...
but i am convinced that UT will not beat Ohio St... and Florida will crush OU...
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nc1... i don't agree with the Buffalo pick, although i got UConn at (-4), and Buff (+7.5) might be a winner... but i do agree with Tulsa and OU... the Big 12 is defenseless, and the MAC is complete and utter trash! Tulsa will thrash them...
but i am convinced that UT will not beat Ohio St... and Florida will crush OU...
Today's game is a red flag to me. The betting public loves Maryland yet this line opened at 1 and is now 3. The public betting Maryland hard and line going the other way. It would concern me as this typically indicates sharp money on Nevada. I don't cap games based on this theory, but I'm very cognizant of it and will typically stay away from a game I like if it falls into this theory.
Nevada wins by 10
Nevada
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Quote Originally Posted by Mr. Insight:
Today's game is a red flag to me. The betting public loves Maryland yet this line opened at 1 and is now 3. The public betting Maryland hard and line going the other way. It would concern me as this typically indicates sharp money on Nevada. I don't cap games based on this theory, but I'm very cognizant of it and will typically stay away from a game I like if it falls into this theory.
Glad you picked one of my 2 losses. I didn't even bet that game, lol. In your stupid thread, I gave you 4 picks. They are 2-1 with OSU pending. I also made 2 posts in the last month. 1 post was my play of the year, Oklahoma over Texas Tech, and the other was my bowl play of the year, Ole Miss over Tech (look at my history). I have also posted on other game that I bet in the bowls (Notre Dame, Uconn, Kentucky, LSU, and Utah). My record for the bowls is really 7-1, but if you want to put Nevada on my card, fine, 7-2.
I don't post because I'm not an attention person like yourself. I only came after you because you posted in other threads and made it seem like you were the best thing since sliced bread. Truth is that neither of us is exceptional at picking or we would be in Vegas. However, you are so arrogant and pretentious with such square plays. Did you jump on USC 2h -4 because it was a "bargain" like Texas Tech. My guess is that you did but won't admit it because you are so high on your capping abilities that you don't factor in sucker lines. You claim to be good but it took you every bowl game to realize how overrated the Big 12 is?
If you want to be good at this, be cognizant of sucker lines and listen to others opinions.
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Glad you picked one of my 2 losses. I didn't even bet that game, lol. In your stupid thread, I gave you 4 picks. They are 2-1 with OSU pending. I also made 2 posts in the last month. 1 post was my play of the year, Oklahoma over Texas Tech, and the other was my bowl play of the year, Ole Miss over Tech (look at my history). I have also posted on other game that I bet in the bowls (Notre Dame, Uconn, Kentucky, LSU, and Utah). My record for the bowls is really 7-1, but if you want to put Nevada on my card, fine, 7-2.
I don't post because I'm not an attention person like yourself. I only came after you because you posted in other threads and made it seem like you were the best thing since sliced bread. Truth is that neither of us is exceptional at picking or we would be in Vegas. However, you are so arrogant and pretentious with such square plays. Did you jump on USC 2h -4 because it was a "bargain" like Texas Tech. My guess is that you did but won't admit it because you are so high on your capping abilities that you don't factor in sucker lines. You claim to be good but it took you every bowl game to realize how overrated the Big 12 is?
If you want to be good at this, be cognizant of sucker lines and listen to others opinions.
And please don't talk about how it is rude to come into someone's thread and disagree with them. If you have the confidence and audacity to post a thread, just like everything else in this world, it should be subject to constructive criticism.
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And please don't talk about how it is rude to come into someone's thread and disagree with them. If you have the confidence and audacity to post a thread, just like everything else in this world, it should be subject to constructive criticism.
constructive being the key word, Insight... Tx Tech is far from constructive... so tell me ONE thing you've said on my thread that was constructive?
and please don't brag about being 2-1... i'm 21-15... that's 5 Units better than you...
i'm sticking with my original play on Texas... no matter how hard i try, i can't buy into Ohio St on this one... i have a bet on Tx (-9.5) early and rebought one down to Tx (-6.5)... thanks to a couple of teasers from NFL games i will still win money if those don't cover, but will win more if they do... in fact, i stand to win the least if Texas wins by more than 15, which is what i expect will happen... might have to throw up an Alt line bet on Texas to protect against that...
Simon... thanks for having my back... and yes, i am ahead $$, although not as much as i'd like... 21-15 is hardly stellar, and i had anticipated something more like 24-12 at this point...
added a play on Tulsa (-1.5) and Florida (-3)...
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constructive being the key word, Insight... Tx Tech is far from constructive... so tell me ONE thing you've said on my thread that was constructive?
and please don't brag about being 2-1... i'm 21-15... that's 5 Units better than you...
i'm sticking with my original play on Texas... no matter how hard i try, i can't buy into Ohio St on this one... i have a bet on Tx (-9.5) early and rebought one down to Tx (-6.5)... thanks to a couple of teasers from NFL games i will still win money if those don't cover, but will win more if they do... in fact, i stand to win the least if Texas wins by more than 15, which is what i expect will happen... might have to throw up an Alt line bet on Texas to protect against that...
Simon... thanks for having my back... and yes, i am ahead $$, although not as much as i'd like... 21-15 is hardly stellar, and i had anticipated something more like 24-12 at this point...
saw your posts on Ohio St... i just don't think it's enough points... the ideal situation for me would be Texas winning by 7 or 8... would give me a perfect middle with parlays and teasers on the other side... but i don't see it happening... also have a reverse teaser with OSU +2 that i made to hedge some big teasers with Texas (-1), so both sides of that are covered... worst case situation on this game is Texas by 3-6 or Texas by 18+... no way i can lose money on the game...
but my feeling is ultimately that Texas wins going away... OSU just doesn't have the play-makers to keep up on offense, and if their secret weapon involves Boeckman behind center, i like my chances a lot! there is no way they get through the game without at least 2 turnovers... and Texas just doesn't shoot themselves in the foot on offense... both teams will be very motivated, so hard to see an edge either way... Texas (much like USC) is out to stir the BCS pot and prove they deserved a shot at the title, and McCoy is out to prove he deserved the Heisman (which he did)... Ohio St is, of course, out to prove the last two Bowl Games were not a good indication of who they are, and wants to send off their seniors on a high note after some disappointing seasons... Texas has more to play for in this game, when it's all said and done... i think Texas has too much 'em...
should have grabbed Tulsa earlier but i figured people would back Ball St and that i might get Tulsa at (+3) at some point... Conf USA vs. MAC looks like a no-brainer... Ball St was over-hyped...
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saw your posts on Ohio St... i just don't think it's enough points... the ideal situation for me would be Texas winning by 7 or 8... would give me a perfect middle with parlays and teasers on the other side... but i don't see it happening... also have a reverse teaser with OSU +2 that i made to hedge some big teasers with Texas (-1), so both sides of that are covered... worst case situation on this game is Texas by 3-6 or Texas by 18+... no way i can lose money on the game...
but my feeling is ultimately that Texas wins going away... OSU just doesn't have the play-makers to keep up on offense, and if their secret weapon involves Boeckman behind center, i like my chances a lot! there is no way they get through the game without at least 2 turnovers... and Texas just doesn't shoot themselves in the foot on offense... both teams will be very motivated, so hard to see an edge either way... Texas (much like USC) is out to stir the BCS pot and prove they deserved a shot at the title, and McCoy is out to prove he deserved the Heisman (which he did)... Ohio St is, of course, out to prove the last two Bowl Games were not a good indication of who they are, and wants to send off their seniors on a high note after some disappointing seasons... Texas has more to play for in this game, when it's all said and done... i think Texas has too much 'em...
should have grabbed Tulsa earlier but i figured people would back Ball St and that i might get Tulsa at (+3) at some point... Conf USA vs. MAC looks like a no-brainer... Ball St was over-hyped...
i played ML too thought 260 worth a shot and really like chance of S-U win better than just a cover. maybe pissin money away. yea maybe Tex has too much but i thought Bama had too much for Utes
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i played ML too thought 260 worth a shot and really like chance of S-U win better than just a cover. maybe pissin money away. yea maybe Tex has too much but i thought Bama had too much for Utes
i wish i had bet the ML on Utah... we'll just have to see if OSU can show something that Big 10 teams have not shown in big games...
1) the ability of their defense (supposedly the strength of the team) to compete with a dynamic offense... OSU-Florida, OSU-LSU, OSU-USC, Penn St-USC... these were supposed to be defensive stalwarts, and every time they got plastered... is there any reason to believe this game will be different? it just seems like these defenses get highly-touted as a result of facing anemic Big 10 offenses, and when they step up against a potent offense they are exposed...
2) the ability of their anemic, vanilla, one-dimensional offense to match points with a potent offense on the other side... i like Pryor, and i think he gives OSU a speed/athletic dimension they haven't had... but he doesn't really give them an open-it-up passing game... what happens if OSU is down by 2 TDs at any point in this game? does Wells become a non-factor? do they stick with that offensive "run first" gameplan and just bury themselves deeper? most of all, can they be dominant enough in the running game to consistently move the ball against a pretty strong defensive front?
maybe they can buck one or both of these trends... i just feel like if i bet OSU knowing what i know of past performances, and lose the bet, i will be wondering why i bet against what i already know...
like i said, no way for me to not win money on this game... it's just a matter of whether i should throw a little on OSU ML before gametime... or throw a little on Texas Alt line (-14.5 ?) before gametime... i have OSU (+10) at the end of a ML parlay, OSU (+2) at the end of a reverse teaser, and OSU (+15) at the end of a teaser, so i have enough angles covered... and my big plays are on UT (-6.5) and UT (-1) at the end of a teaser, along with my original play on UT (-9.5)... i am quite thoroughly covered all around... was lucky enough to hit my parlays/teasers on the front end so that i could sneak in some OSU bets without risking much $... so i'm basically rooting for a decent middle somewhere in there... very non-committal when it's all said and done...
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i wish i had bet the ML on Utah... we'll just have to see if OSU can show something that Big 10 teams have not shown in big games...
1) the ability of their defense (supposedly the strength of the team) to compete with a dynamic offense... OSU-Florida, OSU-LSU, OSU-USC, Penn St-USC... these were supposed to be defensive stalwarts, and every time they got plastered... is there any reason to believe this game will be different? it just seems like these defenses get highly-touted as a result of facing anemic Big 10 offenses, and when they step up against a potent offense they are exposed...
2) the ability of their anemic, vanilla, one-dimensional offense to match points with a potent offense on the other side... i like Pryor, and i think he gives OSU a speed/athletic dimension they haven't had... but he doesn't really give them an open-it-up passing game... what happens if OSU is down by 2 TDs at any point in this game? does Wells become a non-factor? do they stick with that offensive "run first" gameplan and just bury themselves deeper? most of all, can they be dominant enough in the running game to consistently move the ball against a pretty strong defensive front?
maybe they can buck one or both of these trends... i just feel like if i bet OSU knowing what i know of past performances, and lose the bet, i will be wondering why i bet against what i already know...
like i said, no way for me to not win money on this game... it's just a matter of whether i should throw a little on OSU ML before gametime... or throw a little on Texas Alt line (-14.5 ?) before gametime... i have OSU (+10) at the end of a ML parlay, OSU (+2) at the end of a reverse teaser, and OSU (+15) at the end of a teaser, so i have enough angles covered... and my big plays are on UT (-6.5) and UT (-1) at the end of a teaser, along with my original play on UT (-9.5)... i am quite thoroughly covered all around... was lucky enough to hit my parlays/teasers on the front end so that i could sneak in some OSU bets without risking much $... so i'm basically rooting for a decent middle somewhere in there... very non-committal when it's all said and done...
tough break, simon... for me, Texas winning by 3-6 or Ohio St winning outright were the worst case scenarios... will still win money on that game as long as Florida comes through with just a SU win against OU, but would have been much better if Texas could have held on for a 7 or 8 point win...
jumped on the Under in Tulsa/Ball St at (74)... if it drops below 70 i might take a shot at a middle, but will keep more money riding on the under... wind should take them both out of their gameplan... i like Tulsa's ability to run more than Ball St, since the weakness of the Tulsa defense is in the secondary, and Tarion Adams is a bruising, athletic back that can really rip apart Ball St in the running game... Lewis for Ball St won't find as much room to run through holes as Adams will for Tulsa...
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tough break, simon... for me, Texas winning by 3-6 or Ohio St winning outright were the worst case scenarios... will still win money on that game as long as Florida comes through with just a SU win against OU, but would have been much better if Texas could have held on for a 7 or 8 point win...
jumped on the Under in Tulsa/Ball St at (74)... if it drops below 70 i might take a shot at a middle, but will keep more money riding on the under... wind should take them both out of their gameplan... i like Tulsa's ability to run more than Ball St, since the weakness of the Tulsa defense is in the secondary, and Tarion Adams is a bruising, athletic back that can really rip apart Ball St in the running game... Lewis for Ball St won't find as much room to run through holes as Adams will for Tulsa...
i wrote in a couple others i don't see how BallSt makes any def. adjustments at all. Hoke called all the D-shots regardless what anybody says. i saw these guys play 3 games this year--not tv but at game--and they can't stop a MAC run let alone these guys. tulsa runs spread but keys the run 1st and don't see Ball slowing them at all. just hope tulsa can stop them a few times; i think it gets ugly
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i wrote in a couple others i don't see how BallSt makes any def. adjustments at all. Hoke called all the D-shots regardless what anybody says. i saw these guys play 3 games this year--not tv but at game--and they can't stop a MAC run let alone these guys. tulsa runs spread but keys the run 1st and don't see Ball slowing them at all. just hope tulsa can stop them a few times; i think it gets ugly
i agree... has the potential to be a major ass-whooping...
the more i look at it, the less i am impressed with Ball St... they have two supposedly quality wins this year, against CMich and WMich... CMich lost to the team that was, on paper, the worst Bowl team playing this year (Fla Atl)... WMich got completely destroyed by Rice, a team that Tulsa beat 63-28 earlier in the season...
just don't see the competitive game many envision this will be...
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i agree... has the potential to be a major ass-whooping...
the more i look at it, the less i am impressed with Ball St... they have two supposedly quality wins this year, against CMich and WMich... CMich lost to the team that was, on paper, the worst Bowl team playing this year (Fla Atl)... WMich got completely destroyed by Rice, a team that Tulsa beat 63-28 earlier in the season...
just don't see the competitive game many envision this will be...
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