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Ice Picks

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Posted: #1
Georgia (-7)
Ga Tech (-3.5)
Ok St (-3)
Tx Tech (-5)
Va Tech (+2)
CMich (-6.5)
Rice (-3)
Rutgers/NC St (Ov 51)
CMich/FAU (Ov 62.5)
 
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Posted: #2
Good luck with all of these plays, I'm not on any of these just yet.  I'll probably be on a couple.
 
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Posted: #3
damnit!  i knew i forgot one... here is the full card:
 
Georgia (-7)
Ga Tech (-3.5)
Ok St (-3)
Tx Tech (-5)
Va Tech (+2)
CMich (-6.5)
Rice (-3)
Fla St (-4)
Rutgers/NC St (Ov 51)
CMich/FAU (Ov 62.5)
 
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Posted: #4
thanks whodey!  i have a few smaller plays, but these are the key picks...
 
 
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Posted: #5
The only problem I see with this list, is it is probably going to be a lot of public plays.  I mean heavy public plays, especially Georgia, Florida St, Georgia Tech, Oklahoma St.
 
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Posted: #6
perhaps... it's been my general experience over many years of betting bowl games that the term "public play" doesn't apply as much... hard to explain, but all teams have a following based not only on region but on conferences... Wisconsin is always a heavily backed team, for example... so i don't fear being on a public play quite as much as i would during the thick of the season...
 
besides, if there are "public plays" on this list, Ok St is not one of them... lots of people on both sides of that game...
 
if you think about it... all over the country there are people who are bashing one or another conference... but few people are really certain of which conferences are superior... that's why you rarely see big pointspreads, and you rarely see big line movements...
 
just my take... in every one of these matchups i feel i am backing the better team with the better QB, all laying a TD or less... tends to be a winning formula in bowl games...
 
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Posted: #7
didn't explain that well... basically, by the time you get to a bowl game, every team has gotten here by winning games, and has therefore developed a following to back them... there may be games that the public favors one side over another, but you don't find any games where you have an overwhelming backing of one side over another... not like the 95% backing you might get during the season... more like 70-30...
 
i can live with that... this is one time of year where the books actually make their money simply with even action, rather than sucker plays...
 
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Posted: #8
only games i've seen so far that really look like public plays (meaning virtually nobody is on the other side) are:
 
Rice, Troy, CMich, La Tech, and maybe BC... i don't see anyone backing the other side in any of those games... whereas i see plenty of people on Mich St, LSU, Oregon and even Wiscy (this one is borderline)... i am on two of the public plays, but they are both home games, which is an angle i like...
 
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Posted: #9
Just from what I've seen, I haven't seen anyone on Mich. St., LSU, or Wisconsin.  I didn't mean to put the Okie St. game on that list.
 
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Posted: #10
last point... a "public play" only scares the hell out of me if the line doesn't budge...
 
Rice, Troy and BC all fit the bill... heavy public support with no line movement... 
 
the best example of a "public play" this year was Tenn - Vandy... line opened at Vandy (-3)... easily 95-98% of bettors were on Vandy, and the line never moved, even right up until gametime... THAT was a public play!  there was no logical way to make a case for taking the points with UT on such a short line, and therefore nobody did... but the line never moved... trap-city!
 
only game on my card that fits the defintion of a trap in that sense is Rice... which is why i am carefully watching to see whether or not that line moves... if it doesn't, i may have to back out of it...
 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by Whodeysb09:

Just from what I've seen, I haven't seen anyone on Mich. St., LSU, or Wisconsin.  I didn't mean to put the Okie St. game on that list.

can't say i've seen many on Wiscy, but i have seen quite a few on LSU and Mich St... at least 4 or 5 on each of those games just on this forum... couple on Wisc that i remember...

 
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Posted: #12
Maybe I just don't pay attention, just go to a few people's threads thats about it.
 
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Posted: #13
Just from certain sites, I'm seeing those as public plays.
 
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Posted: #14
was browsing around to see if i could find a few, but too tired and only found one of the LSU picks (CaptainHawaiian, i think)... someone was arguing for LSU on Bibendi's thread, i think... saw an MSU pick earlier...
 
i go mostly by feel... definitely more on both Georgia teams than against, but the opposition is out there... we'll see...
 
at least the lines on those games have both moved and crossed key numbers... if they had stayed put i would be more worried...
 
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Posted: #15
Yeah I go by feel a lot to.  I usually try to set the lines myself.  Then go from there.  Did it for all the bowl games, stopped doing it towards the end of the season, and it hurt me honestly.
 
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Posted: #16
I wouldn't worry about cappers % I would be concerned about high consensus picks
 
C Mich is a 78% consensus pick ..This would worry me more than 81% of the cappers liking this game
 
That is one reason I am looking at Ole Miss, Texas tech is an 82% consensus pick. Whenever the public likes a team that much there is usually an upset brewing
 
I like Rice and Im glad that most of the cappers like Rice. The consensus is 71% on Rice. That I can accept
 
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Posted: #17
 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by Whodeysb09:

Yeah I go by feel a lot to.  I usually try to set the lines myself.  Then go from there.  Did it for all the bowl games, stopped doing it towards the end of the season, and it hurt me honestly.

i do the same...

only games where the line i set was more favorable than the actual line is UGA, which i had as (-4)... but the matchups in that game seemed too favorable to pass up...

jordyn... Tx Tech will definitely beat Ol Miss...

 
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Posted: #19
Ice first let me say I am in love with your Avatar,who is she?
 
I am with you on most of your picks,the only one we difer is T Tech. I have made money betting against high consensus picks like this one. Haven't capped it and would probably only bet 1 unit on Ole Miss
 
My 7 unit plays are Rice and Ga tech also like Florida, Memphis and Calif
 
Leans are Ole Miss, Utah, E car, C Mich(would be going against a 78% consensus), Georgia, Tulsa W Va
 
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Posted: #20
How did you find out who the cappers picked and how do I get on it and contribute
 
Would be4 great if you could update
 
I have already increased my plays on Rice and Ga tech 2 of my top picks
 
Good work
 
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Posted: #21
 
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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by jordyn31:

How did you find out who the cappers picked and how do I get on it and contribute

to be honest i am just going off of browsing random threads on this forum or even on the game threads... i just do it to get an idea of what people are thinking, and occasionally some good inside info...

and the avatar is Elisha Cuthbert...

 
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Posted: #23
Jack Bauer's daughter has grown up well. loved her in " The girl next door"
 
Good job  keep up the good work
 
 
 
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Posted: #24
Definitly some "icy" looking picks.  GL.
 
 
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Posted: #25
Georgia (-7) Love it!! One of my favorite plays
 
Ga Tech (-3.5) PASS
 
Ok St (-3) PASS - tough call 4 me
 
Tx Tech (-5) Like IT
 
Va Tech (+2) Like it - had them vs BC and they looked good!
 
CMich (-6.5) No clue myself but GL
 
Rice (-3) Again no clue but rock it out bud
GL TO U this season.
 
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