shepherd, if you dont mind me adding my 2 cents, i agree with your above points and would like to add that i believe their defense is one of, if not the best defenses i have ever seen. maualuga is an animal and everyone else just feeds off of him. i would not be suprised if SC's defense scores more points tonight than the osu offense. that would be awesome haha
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shepherd, if you dont mind me adding my 2 cents, i agree with your above points and would like to add that i believe their defense is one of, if not the best defenses i have ever seen. maualuga is an animal and everyone else just feeds off of him. i would not be suprised if SC's defense scores more points tonight than the osu offense. that would be awesome haha
could you break down/explain your money management/unit system for us newbees? wondering how you structure your bets thanks
i'll try...
start with a bankroll (X)...
make 1 unit = 5% of the bankroll (.05X)...
this is important: the amount of a 1 Unit bet does not change all season, and you never bet more than 1 Unit on any single bet...
week 1: i bet anywhere from 50-75% of my bankroll, with 1 Unit on every bet! (i.e. 10-12 bets of 1 Unit each)
week 2: i do the exact same thing as week 1...
after that, i should have around 3 to 5 times my starting bankroll, hitting a minimum of 80% of my picks... when Bowl Season starts, i want to have at least this amount or more, so the rest of the CFB season is simply about being strategic and protecting your winnings... occasionally make a 1 Unit bet, but mostly 1/2 Unit and 1/4 Unit plays, with about 3 or 4 good ML bets every week... risk no more than maybe 50-75% of your starting bankroll in a given week (not your current bankroll... starting bankroll... X)... no bad week should ever screw you over at this point...
the advantages that are on the board in weeks 1 and 2 of CFB season can't be found in any other sport at any other time of the year, in my opinion... i take advantage of that fact, and then i spend the rest of the year paying attention, because its all about Bowl Season after that... i expect to have around 8X by Bowl Season, and probably risk up to 2X (twice my starting bankroll) on Bowl Games...
hope that helps...
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Quote Originally Posted by topi2008:
could you break down/explain your money management/unit system for us newbees? wondering how you structure your bets thanks
i'll try...
start with a bankroll (X)...
make 1 unit = 5% of the bankroll (.05X)...
this is important: the amount of a 1 Unit bet does not change all season, and you never bet more than 1 Unit on any single bet...
week 1: i bet anywhere from 50-75% of my bankroll, with 1 Unit on every bet! (i.e. 10-12 bets of 1 Unit each)
week 2: i do the exact same thing as week 1...
after that, i should have around 3 to 5 times my starting bankroll, hitting a minimum of 80% of my picks... when Bowl Season starts, i want to have at least this amount or more, so the rest of the CFB season is simply about being strategic and protecting your winnings... occasionally make a 1 Unit bet, but mostly 1/2 Unit and 1/4 Unit plays, with about 3 or 4 good ML bets every week... risk no more than maybe 50-75% of your starting bankroll in a given week (not your current bankroll... starting bankroll... X)... no bad week should ever screw you over at this point...
the advantages that are on the board in weeks 1 and 2 of CFB season can't be found in any other sport at any other time of the year, in my opinion... i take advantage of that fact, and then i spend the rest of the year paying attention, because its all about Bowl Season after that... i expect to have around 8X by Bowl Season, and probably risk up to 2X (twice my starting bankroll) on Bowl Games...
this is really a one-sided matchup... this is not meant to offend anyone, but i think alot of people fall into the trap of basically guessing rather than handicapping... they think things like "USC can't keep rolling," or "OSU plays them tough," or "Thursday night home dog," as if the team that covers does so by magic... you still need to look at the players that will be on the field and how they will match up...
still gotta handicap the game...
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BB, i agree on both counts...
this is really a one-sided matchup... this is not meant to offend anyone, but i think alot of people fall into the trap of basically guessing rather than handicapping... they think things like "USC can't keep rolling," or "OSU plays them tough," or "Thursday night home dog," as if the team that covers does so by magic... you still need to look at the players that will be on the field and how they will match up...
on four of those games so we have pretty similar tickets, only opposite on Wake which could destroy Navy if they're in the mood..or maybe even if they're not . Like those MLs as well.
BOL this week shep
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on four of those games so we have pretty similar tickets, only opposite on Wake which could destroy Navy if they're in the mood..or maybe even if they're not . Like those MLs as well.
Another good write up about LSU. Just to add a few things I really like LSUs depth this year, I think even if they're up big their 2nd and 3rd string guys are still good enought to extend the lead guys like Jordan Jefferson( true freshmen QB who is the most mobile and has the strongest arm of all of the LSU qbs) Richard Murphy( was the best back in the spring game has over 200 yds of total offense) and Terrence Tolliver at WR. Plus LSU has a bye week after this game which means there is no reason to be looking ahead. This game has all of the makings of a blowout. Didn't Mississippi St give up over 350 yds rushing to Ga Tech?
I really like your card so far, I'm going with
LSU, Ball St, Miami, Pitt, Bama and Michigan St,
I'm also looking closely at Fresno St, Wisconsin, Purdue and Cincy...
Just wondering, do any of the totals catch your eye? I'm looking to add a couple of over/under plays. Thanks and GL
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Another good write up about LSU. Just to add a few things I really like LSUs depth this year, I think even if they're up big their 2nd and 3rd string guys are still good enought to extend the lead guys like Jordan Jefferson( true freshmen QB who is the most mobile and has the strongest arm of all of the LSU qbs) Richard Murphy( was the best back in the spring game has over 200 yds of total offense) and Terrence Tolliver at WR. Plus LSU has a bye week after this game which means there is no reason to be looking ahead. This game has all of the makings of a blowout. Didn't Mississippi St give up over 350 yds rushing to Ga Tech?
I really like your card so far, I'm going with
LSU, Ball St, Miami, Pitt, Bama and Michigan St,
I'm also looking closely at Fresno St, Wisconsin, Purdue and Cincy...
Just wondering, do any of the totals catch your eye? I'm looking to add a couple of over/under plays. Thanks and GL
Thanks Shep. Couldn't stay away so i'm riding! You are right though, and its a great persepctive to examine a game. OSU by no means has ANY chance in winning tonight. Huge difference in chosing an underdog by any spread.
thanks for the response man.
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Thanks Shep. Couldn't stay away so i'm riding! You are right though, and its a great persepctive to examine a game. OSU by no means has ANY chance in winning tonight. Huge difference in chosing an underdog by any spread.
technical difficulties? i see your point on Purdue... wasn't sure where the line was settled right now... i think both Purdue and Stanford look like decent ML bets...
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technical difficulties? i see your point on Purdue... wasn't sure where the line was settled right now... i think both Purdue and Stanford look like decent ML bets...
won't get into it too much, but put it this way... no team in CFB has suffered a more dramatic drop-off from last year to this year, than Hawaii... that home field advantage has been particularly strong recently because the team was dominant relative to other WAC teams... not true anymore, and i expect a lot of teams to waltz into Hawaii looking for some payback... SJ St is at the top of that list after a heart-breaking loss in SJ last year...
anyway, it is only gonna take a couple more weeks before the lines get adjusted to fully compensate for the Warriors drop-off... i want to get the value while its still there...
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won't get into it too much, but put it this way... no team in CFB has suffered a more dramatic drop-off from last year to this year, than Hawaii... that home field advantage has been particularly strong recently because the team was dominant relative to other WAC teams... not true anymore, and i expect a lot of teams to waltz into Hawaii looking for some payback... SJ St is at the top of that list after a heart-breaking loss in SJ last year...
anyway, it is only gonna take a couple more weeks before the lines get adjusted to fully compensate for the Warriors drop-off... i want to get the value while its still there...
card looks good man, been lurking around this site without loggin in for a few years man and your write ups are top notch. gonna ride with you tonight and on into the weekend man. Best of Luck brother.
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Shep,
card looks good man, been lurking around this site without loggin in for a few years man and your write ups are top notch. gonna ride with you tonight and on into the weekend man. Best of Luck brother.
EJDav... yikes! i'll be honest... Cincy is a game i liked a little bit, and ended up putting it on my 1/4 unit plays just because some other good cappers really like it... but without Grutza, i don't know how much i like that... i know Akron blows, but how much?
freebet... i love Wake... that's most likely the easiest pick of the week... i have made lots and lots of bets against Navy over the years... i know what i'm doing...
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EJDav... yikes! i'll be honest... Cincy is a game i liked a little bit, and ended up putting it on my 1/4 unit plays just because some other good cappers really like it... but without Grutza, i don't know how much i like that... i know Akron blows, but how much?
freebet... i love Wake... that's most likely the easiest pick of the week... i have made lots and lots of bets against Navy over the years... i know what i'm doing...
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. Like those MLs as well.
but he still lives in our hearts!! 
what is your take on this game?? 
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