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follow the shepherd (week 5 CFB plays)

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Posted: #201
Hey Shepherd.  I want to run something by you.  Please view "Your Space" and review my friend request.  Thanks...
 
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Posted: #202
 
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Posted: #203
easy money Underdogs this week, as i see it...
 
1) Arkansas... this line is way too high... Texas struggles to run the ball... huge rivalry... ask yourself, if everyone and their mother loves Texas in this one, why did the line open at 27.5 and never reach 28... ever?  this is truly a gift...
 
2) Tennessee... like i said, everyone last week was talking about how UT was a great bet because they do well when nobody expects it... right!  but you can't say... "nobody expects you to do well... now go do well!"... wrong!  last week wasn't the "nobody expects it" week... this week is... Tennessee will bring easily their best game of the year, and will be leading the entire 1st half...
 
3) Houston... two huge bet against factors for ECU... (1) just lost their BCS hopes... teams in that situation over recent years have been awful the following week... rarely covering the spread and frequently losing SU... (2) just lost in OT... teams that lose in OT and try to lay DD the following week are about a 30% cover...
 
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Posted: #204
Hey shepherd...msg for you in your playbook (view your space)
 
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Posted: #205
Agee with that ECU play- perfect spot to fade them again maybe jump back on next week @ VIR. GL
 
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Posted: #206
not sure how moderators operate... but can someone remove that idiot's post from my thread?
 
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Posted: #207
What do you think in the UCLa game...+7.5 at home??? I
 
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Posted: #208
good luck this sat 
 
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Posted: #209
Hey Shep. You dont know me but I follow your threads for 2 yrs now. I notice when you go big and start rambling about how bad a team is i notice it always bites you in thee azz. Well sorry for your loss on Usc. I just want to let you know I live in hawaii and got season tickets for the pass 12 yrs. I ve seen magical games in honolulu. This game is huge though. They say Graunke might not play. I say BS. He will play and he will light up the score board. San Jose CB , first round draft pick Lowery is not there anymore. Graunke will light up the board you can count on that. Lowery had I think 2 interceptions last year. He was definately a difference maker. Also thre rain was a major factor. Mcmaccan wants this win against old  Hawaii coach Dic Tomey. Hawaii's special teams will show a huge HUGE improvement tomorrow. Graunke will be workin on a short field and they will throw throw throw the ball. They will attack the secondary. Hawaii will win in a 7-10 point game. My guestimate of the score is 38-30. It will definately go over.Well this is just my opinion but i love Hawaii's chances here. But what ever eryone goes Goold Luck
 
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Posted: #210
Quote Originally Posted by Booshasta:

Hey Shep. You dont know me but I follow your threads for 2 yrs now. I notice when you go big and start rambling about how bad a team is i notice it always bites you in thee azz. 
 
interesting... i've been posting on Covers for about 3 months... and i have lost a whopping 3 out of 15 games i have gone "big" on this year... and USC was not one of them...
 
so i assume you have me confused with someone else...
 
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Posted: #211

LTE... no real opinions on that game... a friend of mine who has correctly called UCLA's last 3 games (including predicting the huge blowout loss against BYU) thinks Fresno St will cover easily... but like i said, i have no real opinions on it...

Oahu... GL today... curious what line you got on Kent St... saw that line has jumped through the roof the past couple days... hopefully you got the line late...

 
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Posted: #212
Hey Shep,

The Ball St. line jumped up to 21.5 and Toledo up to 19.5. Do you think the same about these two teams with the big line moves ?

Thanks
 
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Posted: #213
honestly jagwads... not to sound overconfident... but based on those line moves i consider my bet on Ball St and Toledo to already be as good as cashed... i've seen those kind of line moves in those games before... as a general rule, i would say the original line is going to cover about 95% of the line...
 
however, the finishing line will cover maybe 65% of the time...
 
Ball St (-16.5) is money... Ball St (-21.5)?... maybe...
 
i'll say this, there is no way in hell i'm gonna throw away any money by middling either of them...
 
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Posted: #214
since you asked... i already posted this on the Ball St - Kent St game thread...
 
 
my concern on Ball St was... how will they respond to the news that WR Dante Love is probably done playing football for the rest of his life?
 
the line opened at (-16.5)... it sat there for 2 days while other people wondered the same thing... within the past 36 hours, that line has jumped 5 points... what does that tell you?
 
somebody close enough to the team to actually know, knows the answer to that question... the line move tells me that Ball St is dedicating this game to Dante Love, and they are going to rip Kent St to pieces...
 
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Posted: #215
i'll say this, there is no way in hell i'm gonna throw away any money by middling either of them...
 
win or lose, that's exactly right, anyone who gets a 2.5 pt advantage on a number by getting down early (and in theory the correct side although anything can happen), you don't give it away later looking for that 1 in 30 middle shot
 
 
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Posted: #216
shep for the record
 
First time posting on your thread and it SHOCKS me that people take advantage of your research and then have the balls to question it.  If they want to do their own work, then stay off the thread.
 
In the movie "A Few Good Men"  Nicholson says, a simple thank you will do, otherwise grab a gun a stand a post.....
 
Love the SJ money line and Wake today.
 
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Posted: #217
shep i am new to this site and would appreciate a couple strong picks i have been getting killed the last week if you had to bet just 2 games what would they be
 
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Posted: #218
With you on Penn St.  Can't turn my back on them now after 4 profitable weeks.  Can only get at -15.5.  I am not sure I can do that yet.
 
You like Ball St at -21.5?  I know nothing about this one, so just looking to you for your capping on this game.
 
I had USC, like Mia, Bama, LSU, Tol.
 
Starting today out with following noonish action:
 
Mia -1.5 / MSU -2 tease
CMU -1 / Duke -1 tease
Miami -7
MD +11
Pitt -14
MD +20 / Pur +10.5 / FLA -13.5 teaser
 
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Posted: #219
cpa... thanks... honestly i get sick of some of the bullshit posts, but i try to ignore them and stick to the people who have a little respect... gl this week!
 
cubboy... my only 2 best bets are Wake and LSU... stick with those...
 
Bruschi... if you read up a bit i said pretty much what i had to say about Ball St... i think Ball St will cover 21.5... but i mean, honestly... you lost out on 5 points on that game... any time i lose 5 points on a game i was thinking about betting, i just consider that game to be off the board... you missed the boat, in my opinion...
 
i like your noon card, though, Bruschi... have a tough time arguing with any of those... that 3 team teaser looks like a given...
 
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Posted: #220
quick hits:
 
1) everyone is talking about how Florida's offense is struggling to score points... i have to imagine the Ole Miss players wish the media would shut up about it... Florida is scoring plenty, and their offense struggles because the special teams frequently doesn't let them get onto the field, or makes it a short field... don't taunt the Florida offense... i expect an explosion... 45+ points...
 
2) i talked about the Arkansas game earlier... this is one of those sides nobody is loving... that means give it a very serious look!  line has been 27-27.5 all week and everyone loves Texas... still haven't seen a 28... my book refuses to give me a 28... always good to bet on whoever your book is betting on, if you can spot it... my book is betting on Arkansas...
 
3) upset alert: man, i hope it doesn't happen... i really like Oklahoma... but TCU sure seems to have their number... the fact that OU had a week to get ready should help them avoid an upset, but i think it will be a tough haul trying to cover those 18 points in this one...
 
 
 
Nos... didn't mean to ignore your post... just didn't think i needed to add anything... dead on! 
 
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Posted: #221
GL Shepherd this week iam all over San Jose St. +3 5.5units that and Miss +22 5.5units were my only plays today
 
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Posted: #222
consider adding Wake 2H depending on the score and line at halftime... first half score of the game is bogus... phony ejection by the ref and two flukey TOs by Wake...
 
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Posted: #223
make that 4 TOs now for Wake... 3 of them completely unforced... definitely going to be looking into Wake 2nd half...
 
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Posted: #224

5 first half TOs... shocking...

 

Wake (-10.5)  2H

 
 
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Posted: #225

Dude...You have like 1 winner and 3 losers for the day. I think I am just going to bet against you the rest of the day.

Who did you like this evening?

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