All Forums | College Football

follow the shepherd (week 5 CFB plays)

...
Participants:
Search model icon
Views: 20428
Posts: 264
 
MVP
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2005
Posts: 16136
Posted: #176
This thread should be moved to Archives ASAP
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2008
Posts: 187
Posted: #177
I live in Hawaii and both of this week's practices has been closed to media. I can watch the practices and Graunke has only taken 2-3 snaps. Rumors is he is highly doubtful for Saturday due to a thumb injury. Funaki has been taking alot of snaps...
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2008
Posts: 113
Posted: #178
Shep, just wanted to know if you had any concerns about the weather affecting some of the games being played on the east coast(mainly the Wake, Cincy and Penn State games). So far I've locked in plays on LSU, Miami, Ball St.,Michigan St.,Purdue, Duke, Wisconsin, Alabama(ML), and San Jose St. (ML).              
 
BOL 
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Jun, 2008
Posts: 1373
Posted: #179
great info Deppir!  loving that SJ St pick...
 
Alex... don't know much about weather this weekend... Penn St and Cincy lines are too low to worry about weather... Wake i would only worry if it is really really nasty...
 
but mostly, can't worry about weather... weather is a 50-50 proposition in terms of how it affects you... i make a lot of bets early in the week, so you gotta roll with what God gives you... i haven't laid any numbers that are so huge i think that bad weather could single-handedly screw me...
 
 
 
MVP
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2005
Posts: 16136
Posted: #180
Archive please....the reason is simple...I've never seen so many responses from a 2008 class in one thread.
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Jun, 2008
Posts: 1373
Posted: #181
whereismyhat... thanks!  very flattered... i don't even know what archiving is, really... but i gather it is a compliment... much obliged...
 
especially since it comes on the night of my worst loss of the CFB season...
 
totally worthless gameplan and adjustments by the USC coaching staff... i would be up in arms if i were a USC fan... this was a golden opportunity for a NC run and they blew it by spotting a conf opponent an entire half and 21 points... booo... Carroll was busch league tonight...
 
sorry for the pick guys... i took advantage of the halftime opportunity and chased by taking USC 2nd half (-14)... i normally do not recommend chasing a bad bet... but i knew the first half was a complete abomination, and had to jump at the chance to break even... hopefully a few of you did the same...
 
still an embarrassment that USC waited until the 3rd quarter to make the proper defensive adjustments... totally inexcusable!
 
another bad start to the week... but i feel good about the rest of the card...
 
sorry again...
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Jun, 2008
Posts: 1373
Posted: #182
Updated week 5 card:
 
USC (-23.5) 
*LSU (-24)
*Wake (-15)
Ball St (-16.5)
Penn St (-13.5)
Toledo (-17.5)
Alabama (+7.5)
Miami (-7)
SJ St (+135) ML
 
 
* - best bet
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2008
Posts: 3455
Posted: #183
All that chalk, I read through the thread briefly as there was a lot of info in it. I see you play alot of MLs on dogs for a better value. This system of betting seems like it would kill you. But your record proves different.
 
I know you said that you lock in your plays early in the week, But I was wondering if you would buy back to cover yourself realizing that the game you bet earlier in the week is now being pounded or even try to hit the middle.
 
USC seemed like a great play monday but by tonight hell no. Not with all the action on them and on the over, well thats my opinion as I just watched this game, originally was going to play USC but didnt.
 
Lets say LSU was pounded by 80% of the public and line went to 26.5 would you try for the middle or ride out the storm?
 
Anyways keep up the goodwork.
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2006
Posts: 4801
Posted: #184
sorry bout the USC play dude, good luck with the rest of ur card brah
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2007
Posts: 26
Posted: #185
Had to switch to Oregon ST was hard to do yet cofer play is a differnt game alltogether,but still like-BallST- PennSt-Alabama-Pudue-Rice
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Jun, 2008
Posts: 1373
Posted: #186
crodies... just depends on the size of the middle or how strong i feel about it... i don't care what % is on a game, but if the LSU line got up to 28, i would consider middling half of my bet, since i already have (-23.5)... that would give me a 5 pt middle... maybe another game i would go for a 3 pt middle... another game (say Wake Forest) i probably wouldn't even take a 7 point middle...
 
case by case...
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Jun, 2008
Posts: 1373
Posted: #187
also crodies... not sure why you would think betting MLs on dogs would be a bad way to win money... can you elaborate?
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Jun, 2008
Posts: 1373
Posted: #188
added 2 ML bets: Tenn (+225) and Houston (+330)
 
 
 
updated ML Bets for Week 5:
 
*SJ St (+135)
Alabama (+230)
Va Tech (+230)
Tenn (+225)
Houston (+330)
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2007
Posts: 298
Posted: #189
 Hey Shep, sorry about USC. cant win them all.ON to the next one.LSU BIG-TIME!!       BOL this weekend.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2007
Posts: 134
Posted: #190
hey shep i know your card is gettin full but i think you could a strong play with the over in the texas a&m.....the aggie offense is goin to score and that defense couldnt stop a 5A high school with the linbackers they have.
 
another play i like a lot is Purdue +1....notre dame has proven two things this year they are better than last year but they still aint good
 
i know a lot about these two teams cus i grew up a notre dame fan and i am an aggie so look in to and let me know what you think.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2008
Posts: 125
Posted: #191
dh21, I am also an Aggie and there is no way I am touching our game.  We haven't proven anything this year, we could score a ton of points, but we definitely haven't proven that we can.
 
You going to the game?  It is going to be HOT.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2008
Posts: 125
Posted: #192
Oh ya, shep, you adding SJ St ML to the best bets?
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2008
Posts: 537
Posted: #193
SHEP (And others)
 
Lost big with USC!!
Any REAL feelings on tonights game?  I have went thru the forums, and people are divided.  I have scrolled to see if you have elaborated on the game, couldnt find much. 
 
What is the play here guys?  I am leaning on the Cards.....
Uconn has the stud Brown, who is like 6'8" (r u friggen kidding me?!) who will prolly demolish the Cards line and Linebackers, and gain some serious yardage.
 
But.....the Cards have allowed less points per game than UCONN, and has a better offense.  (This is from what I have read on other posts) Can anyone help here?
 
 
What is the play?  Cards -3?
 
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2008
Posts: 537
Posted: #194
Now Cards -3.5
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2008
Posts: 228
Posted: #195
Hey Guys, have NEVER posted in this thread but wanted to just say good luck to everyone.

Shepherd, I know you are not acquainted with me but i work here in Vegas and can always chime in here or there if I know something.  I wouldn't sweat LSU too much as I see a big victory for the Tigers at home.  I also see a very close contest between Maryland and Clemson.  I know you were looking at that game but we're getting loads of money in on the Clemson Tigers and Maryland has historically played them tough as well as covered.  I see the possibility of an outright upset for the Terrapins.

Just thought I'd share that with everyone.  As always, good luck to all....
 
MVP
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2005
Posts: 16136
Posted: #196
IBTB
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2006
Posts: 27
Posted: #197
College Football Selections:
 
Western Michigan -4
N.C. State +8.5
Alabama +7
New Mexico State +3.5
Nevada +4
Cincinnati -10.5
Toledo -19
UAB +25
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2007
Posts: 8003
Posted: #198
Quote Originally Posted by shepherd:

Updated week 5 card:
 
USC (-23.5) 
*LSU (-24)
*Wake (-15)
Ball St (-16.5)
Penn St (-13.5)
Toledo (-17.5)
Alabama (+7.5)
Miami (-7)
SJ St (+135) ML
 
 
* - best bet
Shep .. Good Luck this week !! Like Miami and SJ ST , against you on a possible letdown Ball St .. Seems like quite a few players on Ball St as line is now 20 !! Wake looks too easy , stayin away .. LSU , that string of big victories vs Miss St has to end soon , possible letdown from Auburn . Georgia has not looked sharp all year IMO but got a feeling they play a perfect game game here and may cover , but stayin away . Tol , tough call , Penn St , everyone on the face of this earth is on em , stay way .. Go get em !!!
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Jun, 2008
Posts: 1373
Posted: #199

DWAustin... SJ St is a ML best bet... that means it has the same unit play on it that a regular straight bet play (e.g. Ball St)... all other ML bets get only half of that amount... SJ St is basically a straight bet for me this week... very very confident on that one...

EJDav... you should never lose big on any game... money management... i like Louisville, and have a small 1/4 unit bet on it, but honestly i don't have a very strong feeling on it...

Las Vegas... nice heads up on Maryland... i am still looking to add a few dogs to my small card, and maybe a couple MLs...

 

believe it or not, here are some of the MLs i'm still checking into... Maryland, TCU and (seriously) Arkansas...

i think Arkansas (+28) is a complete gift... no way Texas will cover that... i'd even say there is no way Texas will win by more than 2 TDs...

 

upside... my spreadsheet has Penn St as the best bet of the week, just ahead of Wake and LSU... at under 14, Penn St is not one of the games i will be concerned about tomorrow...

 
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Jun, 2008
Posts: 1373
Posted: #200
Quote Originally Posted by shepherd:

believe it or not, here are some of the MLs i'm still checking into... Maryland, TCU and (seriously) Arkansas...

 

forgot... also Minnesota...

All Forums | College Football
About Us
Contact Us
Careers
Our Team
Brand
Testimonials
Betting Guides
Sportsbook Reviews
Sports Betting News
Podcasts
Responsible Gaming
Betting Sites
Canada Betting Sites
Canada Casinos
Best Betting Apps
Contests
Streak Survivor
King of Covers
Office Pools
The Covers community has
810,221
lifetime members worldwide
Covers 30 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
Site Map Help Privacy Terms of Service youtube logo facebook logo twitter logo instagram logo linkedin logo google news logo
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo
Copyright © 1995 - 2026 CS Media Limited All Rights Reserved.

If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.