USC (-23.5): i've seen a lot of USC football over the years, and i think this team will be the best we've seen... the running game is as good or better than when Bush/White were carrying, and Mark Sanchez is amazing! the key seems to be the WRs, but so far they have looked solid... the defense is the usual dominant USC defense, big where they need to be big and fast everywhere... they are missing one of their starting corners in this game, but they are so strong in the secondary, especially at the safeties, i don't expect them to miss a beat...
the key mismatches in this game happen upfront:
on offense... USCs massive O-line will be opening up holes against a defensive front 7 that returns not a single starter! we have seen them in action... remember Gerhardt (from Stanford) running up the middle for over 10 yards per carry? what do you think USC is going to do to that!? i'll tell you... look for close to 400 yards rushing... no joke! meanwhile, Sanchez will be in his lawn chair sipping daquiris and occasionally picking WRs off of play-action...
on defense... the big problem i've seen with Oregon St is the inability to protect Lyle Moevao... not to mention Moevao's capacity to make bad decisions under duress... and i don't know where duress is, but i expect to see Moevao under a pile of it...
this game will set up USC to be laying some huge numbers (40's) in PAC-10 play moving forward this year... if somehow OSU covers this, it will only set us up for easier numbers to jump on later... but i don't see that happening...
this is not a game to jump on the Home Dog bandwagon... if you haven't been on it to this point, you missed your chance, but there will be others... if you have been riding it, sit pretty with your winnings for a week if you are afraid to lay this number on the road... betting isn't for the faint of heart...
if USC is up by 3 at halftime you will still be in good shape... i have seen USC explode on teams like this so many times it will be like Groundhog Day all over again... i got it under 24... hopefully you can get it at no more than 25... at 24 it looks soft and cushiony to me... i might even take a nap...
52-17 (only looks semi-close because OSU scores a garbage TD)
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Thursday night special:
USC (-23.5): i've seen a lot of USC football over the years, and i think this team will be the best we've seen... the running game is as good or better than when Bush/White were carrying, and Mark Sanchez is amazing! the key seems to be the WRs, but so far they have looked solid... the defense is the usual dominant USC defense, big where they need to be big and fast everywhere... they are missing one of their starting corners in this game, but they are so strong in the secondary, especially at the safeties, i don't expect them to miss a beat...
the key mismatches in this game happen upfront:
on offense... USCs massive O-line will be opening up holes against a defensive front 7 that returns not a single starter! we have seen them in action... remember Gerhardt (from Stanford) running up the middle for over 10 yards per carry? what do you think USC is going to do to that!? i'll tell you... look for close to 400 yards rushing... no joke! meanwhile, Sanchez will be in his lawn chair sipping daquiris and occasionally picking WRs off of play-action...
on defense... the big problem i've seen with Oregon St is the inability to protect Lyle Moevao... not to mention Moevao's capacity to make bad decisions under duress... and i don't know where duress is, but i expect to see Moevao under a pile of it...
this game will set up USC to be laying some huge numbers (40's) in PAC-10 play moving forward this year... if somehow OSU covers this, it will only set us up for easier numbers to jump on later... but i don't see that happening...
this is not a game to jump on the Home Dog bandwagon... if you haven't been on it to this point, you missed your chance, but there will be others... if you have been riding it, sit pretty with your winnings for a week if you are afraid to lay this number on the road... betting isn't for the faint of heart...
if USC is up by 3 at halftime you will still be in good shape... i have seen USC explode on teams like this so many times it will be like Groundhog Day all over again... i got it under 24... hopefully you can get it at no more than 25... at 24 it looks soft and cushiony to me... i might even take a nap...
52-17 (only looks semi-close because OSU scores a garbage TD)
Shep, Love ya!! You make betting so much easier...
Anyway>>My guy doesnt lock in when you call him, he goes by Americasline.com at kickoff. With these teams you are suggesting, LSU, Wake, USC, Miami, Ball State?, and Florida, how about Oklahoma? and Auburn?
Thanks!
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Shep, Love ya!! You make betting so much easier...
Anyway>>My guy doesnt lock in when you call him, he goes by Americasline.com at kickoff. With these teams you are suggesting, LSU, Wake, USC, Miami, Ball State?, and Florida, how about Oklahoma? and Auburn?
ALso Shep, What are your thoughts on the Texas game? Love the team, McCoy is having a good year (so far--NO real hurdles yet) and they seem to be getting better..... NO?
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ALso Shep, What are your thoughts on the Texas game? Love the team, McCoy is having a good year (so far--NO real hurdles yet) and they seem to be getting better..... NO?
ejdav... that's an interesting way to bet... do you usually feel like you are ending up with better lines or worse lines? i don't think i could handle that...
i like Florida... most people are against it... in my opinion, Fla is probably the 2nd best team in the country, possibly even best...
but we will never know because USC won't play an SEC team for the National Championship... because the BCS system (and any non-playoff system they throw at us) does not and will not ever work out that way... this year, USC will be playing a Big 12 team and the SEC champ will be playing a Big 10 team (or Notre Dame!?)... and we will all be left to wonder, what if USC had played [Fla, UGA, LSU, Bama]?
sorry to rant, but it makes me want to cry...
anyway, OU has a tough matchup this week... i wouldn't expect their offense to be able to put up another 50 spot... they are my #3 team, though, and i think they could cover... Auburn? hmmm... not sure i like that one... actually considered having UT as a ML bet this week...
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ejdav... that's an interesting way to bet... do you usually feel like you are ending up with better lines or worse lines? i don't think i could handle that...
i like Florida... most people are against it... in my opinion, Fla is probably the 2nd best team in the country, possibly even best...
but we will never know because USC won't play an SEC team for the National Championship... because the BCS system (and any non-playoff system they throw at us) does not and will not ever work out that way... this year, USC will be playing a Big 12 team and the SEC champ will be playing a Big 10 team (or Notre Dame!?)... and we will all be left to wonder, what if USC had played [Fla, UGA, LSU, Bama]?
sorry to rant, but it makes me want to cry...
anyway, OU has a tough matchup this week... i wouldn't expect their offense to be able to put up another 50 spot... they are my #3 team, though, and i think they could cover... Auburn? hmmm... not sure i like that one... actually considered having UT as a ML bet this week...
Now with these lines do your picks change? If so, which games should I watch out for? Could you possibly get me a max line for each game that you wouldnt take up to a certian point.
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Shep,
Lines I can get are as follows:
LSU -24
Wake -16
USC -25
Miami -8
Ball State -18
Florida -22.5
Penn St. -14.5
San Jose State +3
Now with these lines do your picks change? If so, which games should I watch out for? Could you possibly get me a max line for each game that you wouldnt take up to a certian point.
I wouldnt bet Houston ML. Im one of the biggest Coog fans i know, but we are struggling due to a major injury @ defensive end. ECU should move the ball, but i think Houston can too. I like the over 57. Last yr the score was 35-37.
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I wouldnt bet Houston ML. Im one of the biggest Coog fans i know, but we are struggling due to a major injury @ defensive end. ECU should move the ball, but i think Houston can too. I like the over 57. Last yr the score was 35-37.
D Unit... Houston ML does scare me... but what do we know happens to teams who have been undefeated with hopes of a BCS run and then lose? history (even this year already) tells us these teams don't cover the next week, and have a good shot of losing... on top of that, ECU's loss was in OT, and teams that lose in OT don't usually fare well ATS as DD favs the following week...
EJDav... only lines that would concern me are Miami over 7 and Penn St over 14... should try to get those down if you can... a lot of people like Miami this week, but i still think its better at 7 or less...
rexiv... good bet!
stud... my predicted score of 69 should indicate that i'm not in love with the under...
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D Unit... Houston ML does scare me... but what do we know happens to teams who have been undefeated with hopes of a BCS run and then lose? history (even this year already) tells us these teams don't cover the next week, and have a good shot of losing... on top of that, ECU's loss was in OT, and teams that lose in OT don't usually fare well ATS as DD favs the following week...
EJDav... only lines that would concern me are Miami over 7 and Penn St over 14... should try to get those down if you can... a lot of people like Miami this week, but i still think its better at 7 or less...
rexiv... good bet!
stud... my predicted score of 69 should indicate that i'm not in love with the under...
What are your thoughts on these games. I don't buy points, these are
the ones I'm going with and I don't use units, just straight up against
these spreads. Thanks for any insight.
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What are your thoughts on these games. I don't buy points, these are
the ones I'm going with and I don't use units, just straight up against
these spreads. Thanks for any insight.
hey shep love the picks and analysis. could you break down/explain your money management/unit system for us newbees? or give me a heads up to which thread it's in? You play a lot of games games. wondering how you structure your bets thanks
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hey shep love the picks and analysis. could you break down/explain your money management/unit system for us newbees? or give me a heads up to which thread it's in? You play a lot of games games. wondering how you structure your bets thanks
IYO, You would still take the Trojans at 25?? I saw you had it at 23.5. I agree with you about the garbage time TD and that is the only thing that worries me...
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Shep,
IYO, You would still take the Trojans at 25?? I saw you had it at 23.5. I agree with you about the garbage time TD and that is the only thing that worries me...
shep totally with you on the LSU and Penn State plays. I like WAKE, but for some reason I feel Navy's going to get a back door cover. Those military schools always play hard til the end.
What's do you think about UNLV/nevada and MICH/wisconsin. keep up the great work. The more info the better in making picks.
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shep totally with you on the LSU and Penn State plays. I like WAKE, but for some reason I feel Navy's going to get a back door cover. Those military schools always play hard til the end.
What's do you think about UNLV/nevada and MICH/wisconsin. keep up the great work. The more info the better in making picks.
Thanks for the write ups Shep. One question though...Are you at all worried that LSU might be looking ahead to their next game at Florida? After a tough game at Auburn I'd expect them to rest some players to get ready for the Gators. I know LSU usually dominates this series, but it just seems like a bad spot for them to be laying so many points
Gl this weekend
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Thanks for the write ups Shep. One question though...Are you at all worried that LSU might be looking ahead to their next game at Florida? After a tough game at Auburn I'd expect them to rest some players to get ready for the Gators. I know LSU usually dominates this series, but it just seems like a bad spot for them to be laying so many points
JohnnyO... i'd prefer the line at 25 or less, but the very fact that this line is breaking over 25 and didn't ever dip back under 24 or even 25 suggests once again that USC is the right side... try to lock it in, because if i'm right the line will close somewhere around 27...
Dice... no real opinion on those games...
Ice... lotta ways to respond to that... first, yes, i knew full well this was a sandwich game... second, this is a game i can't lose on, because i will have to lose the next 4 or 5 years in a row to get close to breaking even with the money i have made simply riding LSU in this series... third, they have been in this same sandwich spot in past games in this series and still covered (see 2003 and 2004 matchups... nearly identical sandwich spots and identical time of year)... fourth... check out this angle...
there are 3 bets you can make on this game: LSU (-24), LSU 1H (-14), and LSU 2H (?)...
over the past 11 meetings, if you had gone into the game with the first two bets (LSU game and half)... then, if they do not cover the first half, bet them in the 2nd half... these are the results...
Game: 10-1
1H: 9-2
2H: 2-0
overall: 21-3
more importantly, you would have never had a losing day, and would have ended with a push only once, in 2006, when LSU covered the first half but not the game (as a 34 pt favorite)...
that's 10 winning days... 1 push... no losses...
i'm not obsessed with history, but there is a reason this series plays out like this... because Miss St doesn't cross midfield, and LSU plays with a short field all game long... i fully expect 4-6 turnovers by Miss St, and at least 1 return for a TD...
this line is just not as big as everyone keeps making it out to be... 24 can be covered by halftime...
finally, of all of the games this week, my spreadsheet that i use to calculate outcomes of all games, has LSU as the biggest blowout of the week (38), and as the biggest differential against the spread (+14)...
incidentally, 2nd biggest spread differential is Penn St (+10), and 3rd is Wake Forest (+9)...
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JohnnyO... i'd prefer the line at 25 or less, but the very fact that this line is breaking over 25 and didn't ever dip back under 24 or even 25 suggests once again that USC is the right side... try to lock it in, because if i'm right the line will close somewhere around 27...
Dice... no real opinion on those games...
Ice... lotta ways to respond to that... first, yes, i knew full well this was a sandwich game... second, this is a game i can't lose on, because i will have to lose the next 4 or 5 years in a row to get close to breaking even with the money i have made simply riding LSU in this series... third, they have been in this same sandwich spot in past games in this series and still covered (see 2003 and 2004 matchups... nearly identical sandwich spots and identical time of year)... fourth... check out this angle...
there are 3 bets you can make on this game: LSU (-24), LSU 1H (-14), and LSU 2H (?)...
over the past 11 meetings, if you had gone into the game with the first two bets (LSU game and half)... then, if they do not cover the first half, bet them in the 2nd half... these are the results...
Game: 10-1
1H: 9-2
2H: 2-0
overall: 21-3
more importantly, you would have never had a losing day, and would have ended with a push only once, in 2006, when LSU covered the first half but not the game (as a 34 pt favorite)...
that's 10 winning days... 1 push... no losses...
i'm not obsessed with history, but there is a reason this series plays out like this... because Miss St doesn't cross midfield, and LSU plays with a short field all game long... i fully expect 4-6 turnovers by Miss St, and at least 1 return for a TD...
this line is just not as big as everyone keeps making it out to be... 24 can be covered by halftime...
finally, of all of the games this week, my spreadsheet that i use to calculate outcomes of all games, has LSU as the biggest blowout of the week (38), and as the biggest differential against the spread (+14)...
incidentally, 2nd biggest spread differential is Penn St (+10), and 3rd is Wake Forest (+9)...
*LSU (-24): already did a write-up for this one, but for those who don't like trends... Miss St has shown they have no offense... no surprise to LSU, who has seen this show every year... they T-off on teams with no offense... last year i don't think the Bulldogs crossed midfield until the 4th quarter... LSU spends the entire day with a short field... and at some point the dam will break... minimum of 4 turnovers for Miss St, with a minimum of 1 defensive TD by LSU... 44-7
USC (-23.5): this USC team is for real... in my opinion, they are better than the Bush-Leinart Trojans... OSU usually plays USC tough at home... but that is usually because OSU has a team to field... they do not... no offensive or defensive line... it will be very very ugly... 54-10
Penn St (-13.5): some people like Illinois in this one... i'm assuming they are unimpressed with PSU beating up on their lowly opponents so far... but i am... mostly because of the balance on offense, and the stifling defense... meanwhile, Illinois is not the Illinois of last year...
quickly, take a look at some teams who lost half of their offense last year, when their star RB left... Rutgers, WVa, Arkansas... and, that's right... Illinois... all of those teams are down... you can't lose your other dimension and still scare teams...
Happy Valley will be in a frenzy Saturday night, whited-out... just too much for Illinois to handle... i don't see this game being much closer than Penn State's previous games... 42-13
Ball St (-16.5): Nate Davis is the real deal... this game is really tough though because of the injury to Dante Love, his star WR... i bet Ball St before i knew the severity of the injury... would be a best bet if not for the injury... as is, i still like their firepower... it will all depend on whether they rally around the injury or come out deflated... very hard to say... luckily, Kent St is horrible! 41-21
Alabama (+7.5): i think Alabama has the better O-line and D-line... better coach, too, by far... i'll take over a TD in a matchup like that more often than not... i think Bama is a slightly better team than Georgia, and has a great chance to win this outright... 23-20
Hi Shep. I'm a 11 year USC Alum and know all of those teams since 92 like the back of my hand. Can you elaborate how this is the best team USC has fielded?? I would think the 03-05 teams were better. This years team is just now jelling at WR.
Care to elab? I'm glad u do have the confidence to lay the 25-26 pts. tho. I've been on the fence all week.
Thanks in advance!
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Quote Originally Posted by shepherd:
quick hitters:
*LSU (-24): already did a write-up for this one, but for those who don't like trends... Miss St has shown they have no offense... no surprise to LSU, who has seen this show every year... they T-off on teams with no offense... last year i don't think the Bulldogs crossed midfield until the 4th quarter... LSU spends the entire day with a short field... and at some point the dam will break... minimum of 4 turnovers for Miss St, with a minimum of 1 defensive TD by LSU... 44-7
USC (-23.5): this USC team is for real... in my opinion, they are better than the Bush-Leinart Trojans... OSU usually plays USC tough at home... but that is usually because OSU has a team to field... they do not... no offensive or defensive line... it will be very very ugly... 54-10
Penn St (-13.5): some people like Illinois in this one... i'm assuming they are unimpressed with PSU beating up on their lowly opponents so far... but i am... mostly because of the balance on offense, and the stifling defense... meanwhile, Illinois is not the Illinois of last year...
quickly, take a look at some teams who lost half of their offense last year, when their star RB left... Rutgers, WVa, Arkansas... and, that's right... Illinois... all of those teams are down... you can't lose your other dimension and still scare teams...
Happy Valley will be in a frenzy Saturday night, whited-out... just too much for Illinois to handle... i don't see this game being much closer than Penn State's previous games... 42-13
Ball St (-16.5): Nate Davis is the real deal... this game is really tough though because of the injury to Dante Love, his star WR... i bet Ball St before i knew the severity of the injury... would be a best bet if not for the injury... as is, i still like their firepower... it will all depend on whether they rally around the injury or come out deflated... very hard to say... luckily, Kent St is horrible! 41-21
Alabama (+7.5): i think Alabama has the better O-line and D-line... better coach, too, by far... i'll take over a TD in a matchup like that more often than not... i think Bama is a slightly better team than Georgia, and has a great chance to win this outright... 23-20
Hi Shep. I'm a 11 year USC Alum and know all of those teams since 92 like the back of my hand. Can you elaborate how this is the best team USC has fielded?? I would think the 03-05 teams were better. This years team is just now jelling at WR.
Care to elab? I'm glad u do have the confidence to lay the 25-26 pts. tho. I've been on the fence all week.
3peet... i don't want to elaborate too much... but i will break it down to 3 things...
1) O-line... they open holes that make even Reggie Bush jealous, and give Sanchez all day to sit and pick apart the defense...
2) Running game... the 4 headed monster is ridiculous! especially running through those huge holes... i'm starting to think McKnight could be as good as Bush...
3) Sanchez... his composure in the pocket and his ability to draw defenders with play-action, pump fakes and look offs is something almost no college QBs can do... he is at a pro level at that already... plus he is confident and leads the team on the field...
OSU is not a live dog by any means, despite being at home on Thursday night... they can't win this game, so i'm comfortable laying 24... and yes, i am dead serious when i say, they can not win this game... no chance... zero!
they are a dead dog...
like i said, if you don't like laying big numbers, stay off the game... or if you really insist, bet OSU... i'm only hear to give you my analysis...
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3peet... i don't want to elaborate too much... but i will break it down to 3 things...
1) O-line... they open holes that make even Reggie Bush jealous, and give Sanchez all day to sit and pick apart the defense...
2) Running game... the 4 headed monster is ridiculous! especially running through those huge holes... i'm starting to think McKnight could be as good as Bush...
3) Sanchez... his composure in the pocket and his ability to draw defenders with play-action, pump fakes and look offs is something almost no college QBs can do... he is at a pro level at that already... plus he is confident and leads the team on the field...
OSU is not a live dog by any means, despite being at home on Thursday night... they can't win this game, so i'm comfortable laying 24... and yes, i am dead serious when i say, they can not win this game... no chance... zero!
they are a dead dog...
like i said, if you don't like laying big numbers, stay off the game... or if you really insist, bet OSU... i'm only hear to give you my analysis...
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