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follow the shepherd (week 5 CFB plays)

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Posted: #76
 
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Posted: #77

Shepherd, what do you think about this games

Tulane -17.5

Florida -23

oklahoma -17.5

Kentucky -22

Rice -17.5

Texas -27.5

Txs, for your advise...

 

 
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Posted: #78
shep.. wats up man.. once again your amazing coming through..i absolutly love penn st. ill. is good team but this is a game that happens every year. penn st under the nite lites????i think if anyone in this forum or anywhere for that matter is thinkin about leanin ill. i tell u ur crazy penn st. rolls 65-24
 
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Posted: #79
Quote Originally Posted by pburgess25:

like the picks shepard.  am i reading you correctly that you have
USC
Penn St
ball st
 
as your *best picks?
 
just wanted to clarify. 

pburgess... my best bet (*) is LSU... after that, my favorite picks (in order) are USC, Penn St, Alabama and Ball St...

also, LSU 1st half and Alabama ML will go on my card when i get some lines...

 

 
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Posted: #80
Rene... like all of those, except for Texas... not sure about Tennessee... and Tulane line seems possibly high... i have Florida, Okla and Rice all as small plays this weekend...
 
 
heatseeker... i agree on Penn St... that's gonna be easy... might end up doubling up on my bet on that one... by the way, you might want to tell Oahuboy what you told me... he likes Illinois for some reason...
 
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Posted: #81
Quote Originally Posted by shepherd:

at some point i will double up on LSU and make it a best bet... just taking a chance that the line will dip another 1/2 point or 1 point...
 
waiting to see line moves on a couple other games before playing...
Shep could you explain why you need to see a line move on other games what is the angle...  If you don't mind..
 
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Posted: #82

quick hitters:

*LSU (-24):  already did a write-up for this one, but for those who don't like trends... Miss St has shown they have no offense... no surprise to LSU, who has seen this show every year... they T-off on teams with no offense... last year i don't think the Bulldogs crossed midfield until the 4th quarter... LSU spends the entire day with a short field... and at some point the dam will break... minimum of 4 turnovers for Miss St, with a minimum of 1 defensive TD by LSU... 44-7

 

USC (-23.5):  this USC team is for real... in my opinion, they are better than the Bush-Leinart Trojans... OSU usually plays USC tough at home... but that is usually because OSU has a team to field... they do not... no offensive or defensive line... it will be very very ugly... 54-10

 

Penn St (-13.5):  some people like Illinois in this one... i'm assuming they are unimpressed with PSU beating up on their lowly opponents so far... but i am... mostly because of the balance on offense, and the stifling defense... meanwhile, Illinois is not the Illinois of last year...

quickly, take a look at some teams who lost half of their offense last year, when their star RB left... Rutgers, WVa, Arkansas... and, that's right... Illinois... all of those teams are down... you can't lose your other dimension and still scare teams...

Happy Valley will be in a frenzy Saturday night, whited-out... just too much for Illinois to handle... i don't see this game being much closer than Penn State's previous games...  42-13

 

Ball St (-16.5):  Nate Davis is the real deal... this game is really tough though because of the injury to Dante Love, his star WR... i bet Ball St before i knew the severity of the injury... would be a best bet if not for the injury... as is, i still like their firepower... it will all depend on whether they rally around the injury or come out deflated... very hard to say... luckily, Kent St is horrible!  41-21

 

Alabama (+7.5):  i think Alabama has the better O-line and D-line... better coach, too, by far... i'll take over a TD in a matchup like that more often than not... i think Bama is a slightly better team than Georgia, and has a great chance to win this outright... 23-20

 
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Posted: #83
Huck... when i said i was waiting to see line moves on other games... i didn't mean i was looking at line moves on other games to determine whether i would play LSU... i meant i was waiting on line moves on other games before i play those other games...
 
i doubt a line move in one game can tell you anything about how to cap a different game...
 
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Posted: #84
under the radar game of the week:
 
 
Wake (-15):  did anyone see Rutgers-Navy last week?  i realized two things watching that game... 1) Rutgers is probably the worst BCS team in football... 2) any team (i.e. Navy) that can't blow out Rutgers, will get blown out by Wake...
 
Navy is a joke... their coach is a huge joke... how did that guy get a head-coaching job???  this is not the Navy offense we are used to... trust me... they couldn't even run on Rutgers and their swiss cheese defense... Navy is a very very bad team... make no bones about it... 42-10
 
last week's under the radar game of the week was Tulsa (-9.5)... won 56-13...
 
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Posted: #85
Shepherd, do you think the injury to usc's starting corner make any difference?  Heard that his backup is coming off 2 knee surgeries.  IMO straughter is the real deal, and quizz rogers is very quick, any thoughts?
 
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Posted: #86
Mushman, Josh Pinkard and Kevin Thomas are going to take over for Shareece Wright in the USC/OSU game.  Both guys are more than capable cover men and there should be too much of a dropoff as they are still very talented. 
 
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Posted: #87
Thanks Peter..hope u meant "should'nt" be too much drop off.  Considering going big on this one, but don't wanna start the week too much in the hole
 
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Posted: #88
LSU is not playing for the championship this year, at least not in the publics' eye, and they are not going to pretend that they are. If they do, then cheers for us.

With the pressure of being #1, and expected to win the whole deal, there was a lot of pressure on the players and coaches, last year . This year, we have nothing to lose, and are not expected to beat Florida, who everyone, including me, believes is better than last year. I don't think this Florida on deck, will affect there gameplan for Miss St.

Hell, with the founding of a new starting QB, we might have to really play this game, just to see what our new offense is capable of. Playing their best game against MISS St, is a much better way of preparing themselves for Florida, then to play half-ass.

Plus, LSU offense & defense is experience, from starters to backups. The entire team, basically plays the game. Look at the Auburn game, for those who don't watch LSU football. We rotate people in and out, and one can barely tell that there is a drop-off in performance. Are we the best team in the country, no. But we play as a WHOLE TEAM, and somehow, as a TEAM, we pull victories out of our ass.

If you think LSU starters can rollover MISS ST, then you have to believe that our other players, not bench warmers, can do the same
 
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Posted: #89
Mush... don't bet on OSU... they suck!  that's my opinion... i know about their WRs... this is not the first game OSU has played this year... have you not seen their other games?  or at least the boxscores???
 
PLEASE tell me you are not excited about OSU because of what they did to Hawaii... SJ St is probably going to score 60 on Hawaii this weekend and beat them by 40... no joke... Hawaii is as shitty as any team in CFB right now...
 
OSU is a joke... this game will be a joke... OSU will not finish the game within 40 points of USC...
 
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Posted: #90
Yeah, sorry bout that.  should=shouldn't.  I've got USC and I said it in another guy's thread, USC will NOT be overconfident in this game for a few reasons...
 
1. OSU beat them in Corvallis two years ago which broke their 3? game winning streak and eventually keep them out of the NC.  They haven't forgotten that and will be looking for sweet revenge.
 
2. Pac-10 Opener.  A chance for USC to show all those doubters that an inferior pac-10 squad is going to sneak up on them this year.  Especially on national TV which should motivate them even more.
 
3.  They had 1 1/2 weeks to prepare and refocus after that emotional game against OSU.  Give Carroll and Co. more than a week to prepare and he's one of the most dangerous coaches in the country.
 
GL with your picks mush_man.
 
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Posted: #91
One more thing, for those who are worry that Les Miles will not want to show everything in this game. It doesn't matter what kind of, unorthodox plays, he uses against MISS ST, the man will have plenty of tricks to try against Florida. That doesn't mean they will beat Florida, it just means he doesn't hide plays. And yes, trick plays are part of LSU's arsenal.
 
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Posted: #92
Ok, thanks for the vote of confidence, I agree Hawaii (sad to say) is probably one of the worst teams in D1 right now, also agree, when carrol has extra time to gamplan, its not very pretty, with the one exeception being v.young and texas-lost a bunch there.
 
GL and lets get that paper!
 
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Posted: #93
WarBlade... glad you're with me on LSU... loving that pick!  LSU is the dark horse in the SEC (#4 in most people's opinion)... they must love that role...
 
 
Mush... shit, are you from Hawaii?  think you told me that but i fogot... sorry... didn't mean to bash your team... but yea, they are definitely in bad shape... i like SJ St this week, in case you didn't notice...
 
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Posted: #94
Shep, yeah I'm from Hawaii.  Don't worry I can't take any offense to what you're saying because it's true.  When you're trailing in the second half to 1AA-FBS Weber St.  thats not good.
 
Only light of day that I can see is we play Idaho, Utah st, and Wash st.  Kiss Fresno, Boise, Cincinnati, goodbye.  SanJose and Nevada-Reno are probably out of reach too.  One good thing-probably can get free tickets to the Hawaii bowl in Dec.
 
Oh, I'm really liking BG vs Wyoming  dont think Wyoming has the firepower or D to compete here.  Wyomings pass D numbers are skewed a bit by playing the AFA, also BYU looks like they look it easy on them by running a lot.
 
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Posted: #95
Shep-
Loving the Wake pick brudda!!!  I loaded up big last weekend on Tulsa (gift of the week IMO) and Tulane and would love to hit my book in the mouth this week...
 
I think right now I'm set on USC, LSU, and Wake-- do you see value in Alabama if you can get it at +7 or better?
 
what's your take on 1st half bets?
 
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Posted: #96
USC / LSU / Wake looks strong... i like Bama, and i think +7.5 is great value (that's what i got it at)...
 
haven't seen first half lines yet... would have to get back to you... seems like the only two i would consider betting are USC and LSU, which should both be around (-14)...
 
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Posted: #97
Picks look good.

Wake has moved to -16 +101 at Pinny. What do you think? I assume if you like them at -15 you'll like them at -16.

Thx.
 
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Posted: #98
brock... up to 17 should still be fine... i think they will cover 20 anyway...
 
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Posted: #99
Your ML bets look solid. Good Luck.
 
 
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Posted: #100
Shepherd, Do you see any team that is Under the Radar this week that can win easily like Tulsa?  Thanks
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