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Follow the shepherd (week 3 CFB plays)

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Posted: #76
Thanks Shep ! what prompted the question throughout the day Sat
Auburn 17- to 19- Lose
Penn State (total) 47- to 49 over win
Byu 9 to 7- Washington Win
Over Cinn 50 to 52 ? Win over
7pm game 7- to 9 over win (can't find the team)
Can't be sure if some of these are square money or sharp money
 
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Posted: #77
Quote Originally Posted by nyduccie:

Cal is -15.. you managed to get -13.5
USC IS -10.5 .. you managed to get -9.5
Cmich -3.5... you got -2.5
OK is -20.5.. you got -20
 
Its funny how you got all these lines.. many of which i havent seen at all.. on your "best bets"... and got Georgia at -6.5

1) i buy points when i need to...

2) i jump on lines literally within an hour of when they are available Sunday night...

 

i bet Cal on Sunday night at 13.5 when i saw that it had climbed from 12.5 to 13.5 on bookmaker... i knew the line was too low and jumped on it immediately, as i pointed out on the game thread... even posted my bet (in bold) on the game thread right after i made it... same goes for the CMich game... Oklahoma was at (-20) for like 2 days!!!  it opened there and stayed there and never budged until Monday night...

now, if you failed to get favorable lines, maybe you need to be asking yourself why the hell you didn't get Cal at (-13.5), CMich at (-2.5), USC at (-9.5), and OU at (-20)... sounds to me like you are committing a very bad sin in betting... failing to shop for a good line...

meanwhile, do not ever come onto my thread and question my integrity ever again!  i post every single bet i make on my page when i make it... i am not posting picks to impress people... i post my bets to keep track of my bets and my winnings...

if you don't appreciate the fact that you can flop your sorry ass onto my thread and take advantage of them, then get the fuck out!

 
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Posted: #78
Good stuff Shep, keep up the good work.  May the force stay with you. 

I want to go with you on Oklahoma, but 20+ is a lot of bone to give a home dog.  I like the CAL and GA plays. 
 
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Posted: #79
Posted: 9/8/2008 12:43:26 PM  (From the California - Maryland game thread on Covers)
 
"holy line moves!
 
got it before it made it up to 14...
 
 
Cal (-13.5)"
 
 
 
 
 
it may surprise you to find out that college football lines do not come out on Thursday...
 
its a shame you will not be visiting us anymore...
 
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Posted: #80
thanks danstyk... the only thing doggish about UW will be their effort coming off of that loss...
 
RIP... hard to tell much with those things, especially since i think you missed out on a couple that would even that out a bit (Alabama comes to mind)... who knows?
 
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Posted: #81
Quote Originally Posted by luckyly:

ONE GREAT READ..HAVE SOME OF THE SAME ON MY CARD.. BOL 

its definitely good to know luck.....yly is on my side...

 
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Posted: #82
Nice card--I LOVE the Cal pick and I find myself betting a lot of money on Oregon St -12.5 against Hawaii.  The Warriors are AWFUL this year.
 
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Posted: #83
MICHIGAN STATE LOOKS GREAT TO ME.......WOnder why people are not hammering it??? GREAT LUCK TO You!!!
Good Luck On The Action
 
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Posted: #84
Love the write-ups shepherd...

I'm with you on practically most of your picks (Love OU, C. Mich, Cal)

GL this week
 
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Posted: #85
1st time poster here, found this site over the week and have been lurking around. Shep, wanted to say very good job on the write-ups and congrats on the UNC ML pick.

A thought on the Cal & OK bets, I believe both are 1-4 ATS in their last five away, any thoughts on that?

Also I didn't see any mention on the Arizona game. That looks like a pretty big mismatch as well as Az losing 29-27 almost a year from today so was also curious on your opinion with it only being -10.5 Az.

GL,
Shaun
 
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Posted: #86
Arizona looks like a good bet... haven't looked into New Mexico too much...
 
OU and Cal are both much better at home than on the road... clearly the fact they are on the road is the only concern...
 
i just don't think people realize how big the mismatches are in either game... especially the OU - UW game... OU has possibly the best O-line in CFB, and UW has a really weak D-line... gonna be so easy for OU to move down the field on offense...
 
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Posted: #87
Dang I got Cal at -15, still think they win this game by 20+
Second mouse gets the cheese.
 
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Posted: #88
Quote Originally Posted by shepherd:

Updated Week 3 card:
 
*Cal (-13.5)
*USC (-9.5)
*C Mich (-2.5)
*Oklahoma (-20)
Tx Tech (-37)
Missou (-26.5)
Georgia (-6.5)
Mich (-1)
Mich St (-16.5)
Illinois (-23.5)
Oregon (-7)
Ore/Pur (Ov 60)
 
* best bets

whats up shep.. 

good plays.. i like all of them except for the Cal game.. and me and you had that disscussion on the official game forum, so you know my thoughts on that.. other then that, the only game i got a question about is the Georgia/South Carolina game.. i think South Carolina is gonna play tough, maybe pull out a win.. if not, a fg loss.. 

good luck though buddy 
 
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Posted: #89
Your card is chalkier than a bottle of maalox my man. 
I'm with you on Michigan, Georgia, and Mizzou.
GL.
 
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Posted: #90
well, for people who want some dogs... other than the 3 i already gave out (UNC (), Kansas, Ga Tech)...
 
here are some dogs that look like good plays to run against the public wave...
 
Iowa St (+13.5)... get 14 if you can
Stanford (+14)
Temple (+6.5)... identical opening line and move as the UNC game
Fresno St (+2)... line is moving the wrong way... Wisc is in trouble!
 
no bets on those games at the moment... all of the lines could get friendlier... might toss a play on a couple of those...
 
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Posted: #91
Oahu... always appreciate your insight... GL this week!
 
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Posted: #92
as long as i have a decent day i will almost for sure have money on Fresno St by gametime... no doubt the wrong team is favored at this point...
 
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Posted: #93
the games that look like public plays this week:  Rutgers (), Iowa, Buffalo, TCU, Wisconsin, Baylor and Oregon St...
 
 
you could possibly throw USC and Penn St into the mix... Penn St is probably without question a public play... USC is a bit more complicated... hard to call that a public play because there will always be people looking at a highly touted double digit dog like OSU in this spot...
 
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Posted: #94

add this game:

 

Iowa St (+14)

 

i bought the hook to get it to 14, because i don't think the books are likely to give us 14 on their own... it has already been bet up from around 11.5 to 13.5, and holding there...

this is the Cyclones' big game... they have won the last 5 SU in Iowa (not really a road game), and something like 10-1 ATS over the last 11 meetings... plus, Iowa is way over-valued after that win against a nobody... Iowa St lays in waiting for this game... gotta get on the value here...

their new QB has looked good in the first two games, as well...

 
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Posted: #95
if you want to take a shot on a bigger win... do a combo...
 
Iowa St (+14) - 1 unit
ISU  ML (+425)  - 1/2 unit
 
or whatever your unit preference to that effect...
 
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Posted: #96
 
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Posted: #97
Shep-
I love Oklahoma over UW-- I agree that the sheer size of Oklahoma will have UW Defense sucking wind by mid 3rd quarter and that's when the skill position seniors/juniors take over on offense and give the sophomore sensation time to pick UW apart.  And the defense is just way to fast for UW to consistently get behind.

I like Cal too but fucked up and didn't take them early enough... my book has it at 14.5-- Is that to many points to lay?
 
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Posted: #98
looks like that line has come back down to 14, too... i don't think 14.5 is too many... i think the line should have been 18... but alot of people are afraid of Cal in this one, that's for sure... tough road trip...
 
personally, i find that games where i am more against the grain i usually seem to do better, so hopefully that bodes well for the Cal pick...
 
obviously, i like -13.5 better than -14.5...
 
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Posted: #99
I'm from Northern Cali so I've seen both of Cal's game... and they look legit (like they always do for the first few weeks).  I'm thinking of putting this with Michigan St and Central Michigan in a parlay-- and maybe cover the cost of the parlay with a play on Maryland-- I like Michigan St and Central to cover outright-- I think if anyone screws me it would be Cal- I just hate to hedge bets

What do you think of Michigan?  I would think it could be similar to last year... just a scaled down final score (without Hart)
 
 
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Posted: #100
rexiv... i think you hit it on the head with Mich... that's exactly how i see it...
 
20-0 final
 
 
with Cal i think a lot of people are looking at what happened last year and assuming it will be the same this year... maybe it will, but i remember how much injuries played a part last year... this year they are not only healthy, but deep... i think their speed and depth can really hurt some teams...
 
but i agree, of the 3 on your card the one i am still least certain about is Cal...
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