UNC/Rutgers... i put some thoughts on the game thread... i will most likely not bet it... UNC is the better coached team, with more returning experience... but Rutgers has some deadly WRs and are playing on Thursday night, where they do very well... only thing i would think about is UNC on the ML for a small amount...
Kan/USF... how many people remember this game last year? except last year, it was West Va rolling into town on a Friday night... now, Pat White did get hurt, so that played a role... the crowd was frenzied and USF won it outright as a TD underdog... this game is a bit different though... not a conference foe, and there is no worry about Kansas looking past this game, because they have had it circled since last season ended... they were severely criticized for playing weak non-conference teams, so they want to make a statement in these early games against better teams than last year... looked good against LaTech last week... this will be a lot tougher...
of course, there's no way i am gonna give Grothe the chance to screw me two weeks in a row, so i can't bet on USF... Kansas is the better team getting points, so if you want to bet it, either take the points or bet KU on the ML... but again, i probably won't bet it...
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Dice and Edge...
UNC/Rutgers... i put some thoughts on the game thread... i will most likely not bet it... UNC is the better coached team, with more returning experience... but Rutgers has some deadly WRs and are playing on Thursday night, where they do very well... only thing i would think about is UNC on the ML for a small amount...
Kan/USF... how many people remember this game last year? except last year, it was West Va rolling into town on a Friday night... now, Pat White did get hurt, so that played a role... the crowd was frenzied and USF won it outright as a TD underdog... this game is a bit different though... not a conference foe, and there is no worry about Kansas looking past this game, because they have had it circled since last season ended... they were severely criticized for playing weak non-conference teams, so they want to make a statement in these early games against better teams than last year... looked good against LaTech last week... this will be a lot tougher...
of course, there's no way i am gonna give Grothe the chance to screw me two weeks in a row, so i can't bet on USF... Kansas is the better team getting points, so if you want to bet it, either take the points or bet KU on the ML... but again, i probably won't bet it...
just looked into this game a bit... will just post the angle that swayed me...
going back the last 2 years (plus this year), FAU has played on the road against a BCS school 8 times... and they have played 17 games that don't fall into that category...
on the road vs. BCS: 0-8 SU, 0-8 ATS
all other games: 13-4 SU, 12-5 ATS
and if you look at the scores of those 8 games every single one of them is ugly... i think the closest game was a 45-17 loss to Kentucky last year...
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added to the card... Mich St (-16.5)...
just looked into this game a bit... will just post the angle that swayed me...
going back the last 2 years (plus this year), FAU has played on the road against a BCS school 8 times... and they have played 17 games that don't fall into that category...
on the road vs. BCS: 0-8 SU, 0-8 ATS
all other games: 13-4 SU, 12-5 ATS
and if you look at the scores of those 8 games every single one of them is ugly... i think the closest game was a 45-17 loss to Kentucky last year...
ok... really liking that card right now... Aub, Penn St and ASU are all tempting... Penn St will probably win 56-7... still might get on it... but i might just sit tight with what i have...
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ok... really liking that card right now... Aub, Penn St and ASU are all tempting... Penn St will probably win 56-7... still might get on it... but i might just sit tight with what i have...
Missou and Tx Tech are my least confident plays... Missouri because Nevada is a live dog who can score points, and Missou might play flat... Tx Tech for only one reason... weather will most likely be a factor... possibly a big one...
if there is no weather in that Tx Tech game they will score 60 and cover...
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Missou and Tx Tech are my least confident plays... Missouri because Nevada is a live dog who can score points, and Missou might play flat... Tx Tech for only one reason... weather will most likely be a factor... possibly a big one...
if there is no weather in that Tx Tech game they will score 60 and cover...
shep like the right up's.....went with ya on some of the pics last week....ended up +2 units so all in all it was a good weekend...just want to make this weekend better.......
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shep like the right up's.....went with ya on some of the pics last week....ended up +2 units so all in all it was a good weekend...just want to make this weekend better.......
Kansas isnt better than USF. Not even close IMO. I like Notre Dame this weekend. I expect to see alot of improvement from week one to week two. Both team suck, but at least Weiss has the players to run his system. Sheridan and Threet couldnt start in any offense. They arent D-1 players. Im not taking Michigan on the road with those two guys behind center. I like Oklahoma alot. That was a pretty good Cincy team they toyed with last week. Central Michigan is a really good team. Alot of value in that pick.
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Kansas isnt better than USF. Not even close IMO. I like Notre Dame this weekend. I expect to see alot of improvement from week one to week two. Both team suck, but at least Weiss has the players to run his system. Sheridan and Threet couldnt start in any offense. They arent D-1 players. Im not taking Michigan on the road with those two guys behind center. I like Oklahoma alot. That was a pretty good Cincy team they toyed with last week. Central Michigan is a really good team. Alot of value in that pick.
Do you think that some games get fixed when there is to much money on one side?
i don't know... i'm not really big on fixes... but whether or not they are, in my opinion, just doesn't make any difference... it still comes back to the law of averages...
put it this way... let's say we all knew for sure that some games were fixed every week... what exactly would you do with that information? start looking at line moves and assume the other side will be fixed? well, maybe the line moved because its just easy money...
whether games are fixed or not there is nothing you can do about it... just assume that you will go 50/50 on fixed games, because when all is said and done that is the likelihood...
as long as you aren't always on the side of the public (which you shouldn't be anyway if you are a good capper), then fixes shouldn't factor into your thinking...
also, like i said, that's why i never load up on any game... if there are fixes, no 1 fixed game will ever cripple me!
if, basically, you are asking if anytime there is a big line move that it means the other side will be fixed... i will tell you absolutely for sure 100% no... there may be some fixes... but the books don't call in the fix on every game where they stand to lose money... in fact, from a business standpoint, if they did that they would eventually go out of business, and would lose countless millions more than they could ever make by pulling that kind of a scam... they don't make money by cheating... they make money because it's an easy money business...
books want bettors... they don't win money by fixing games... they win money for 2 reasons... 1) Vig guarantees that they will win money... 2) the public (with their limited knowledge, lack of self-control and poor money management) will always give away their money, even though certain handicappers are raking it in...
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Quote Originally Posted by ontheedge:
Do you think that some games get fixed when there is to much money on one side?
i don't know... i'm not really big on fixes... but whether or not they are, in my opinion, just doesn't make any difference... it still comes back to the law of averages...
put it this way... let's say we all knew for sure that some games were fixed every week... what exactly would you do with that information? start looking at line moves and assume the other side will be fixed? well, maybe the line moved because its just easy money...
whether games are fixed or not there is nothing you can do about it... just assume that you will go 50/50 on fixed games, because when all is said and done that is the likelihood...
as long as you aren't always on the side of the public (which you shouldn't be anyway if you are a good capper), then fixes shouldn't factor into your thinking...
also, like i said, that's why i never load up on any game... if there are fixes, no 1 fixed game will ever cripple me!
if, basically, you are asking if anytime there is a big line move that it means the other side will be fixed... i will tell you absolutely for sure 100% no... there may be some fixes... but the books don't call in the fix on every game where they stand to lose money... in fact, from a business standpoint, if they did that they would eventually go out of business, and would lose countless millions more than they could ever make by pulling that kind of a scam... they don't make money by cheating... they make money because it's an easy money business...
books want bettors... they don't win money by fixing games... they win money for 2 reasons... 1) Vig guarantees that they will win money... 2) the public (with their limited knowledge, lack of self-control and poor money management) will always give away their money, even though certain handicappers are raking it in...
I enjoy your threads. Will you have any write-up or opinions on the Michigan game?
Big UM fan here but I'm not sure on this one...here are some random thoughts:
If UM had even an average QB this would be three beatdowns in a row...---Threet will get the start again but will get pulled if he keeps missing wide open receivers like last week. He left 3 or 4 TD's on the field and that game shouldn't have been close...---Also look for RB Brandon Minor to see his first real action of the year and look for it come from the QB position (probably only to do the read option and not throw)...--- UM is down to a walkon starting at left tackle with Ortman being out and three of the other 4 OL didn't play last year. Anymore injuries and you'll see a converted DL (Ferrera) playing there and true freshmen.
UM's DL is stout and deep and can rotate 7 guys. Should cause that little blonde haired F*G problems again this year...---Safety Stevie Brown is the weak link on this unit and will be attacked...---MLB Obi Ezeh is a player.
I think Tenuta will blitz UM early and often. Mich. has to prove Threet can make them pay with medium to long balls or they will sell out and smother the read option and run...--- Rodriguez actually ran a little out of the I and freshman star in the making McGuffie can get the corner and go. McGuffie is a real threat out of the backfield but is a HUGE liability in pass protection...--- The other starting freshman RB Shaw had 45 yards on two runs before leaving the game with a groin injury. Give him a crease and he's gone...---TE Butler has been quiet this year but a big mismatch.
An inch more and SDS goes up 20-7 late in the game. They gave up a whopping 483 yards the first week to Cal Poly so I'm surprised ND didn't have more success...---ND's OL looks to be similar to last years making it one of the worst in the country...---Clausen has a decent arm but can be rattled...--- I thought SDS played well on both sides of the trenches which you wouldn't like to see as an ND backer.
Having said all that I think ND might still pull one out. Michigan has thumped them two years straight and little Leprecaun might show up again...something always seems to go wrong in South Bend. Also look for a few questionable holding and pass interference calls.
Might be a no play for me.
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I enjoy your threads. Will you have any write-up or opinions on the Michigan game?
Big UM fan here but I'm not sure on this one...here are some random thoughts:
If UM had even an average QB this would be three beatdowns in a row...---Threet will get the start again but will get pulled if he keeps missing wide open receivers like last week. He left 3 or 4 TD's on the field and that game shouldn't have been close...---Also look for RB Brandon Minor to see his first real action of the year and look for it come from the QB position (probably only to do the read option and not throw)...--- UM is down to a walkon starting at left tackle with Ortman being out and three of the other 4 OL didn't play last year. Anymore injuries and you'll see a converted DL (Ferrera) playing there and true freshmen.
UM's DL is stout and deep and can rotate 7 guys. Should cause that little blonde haired F*G problems again this year...---Safety Stevie Brown is the weak link on this unit and will be attacked...---MLB Obi Ezeh is a player.
I think Tenuta will blitz UM early and often. Mich. has to prove Threet can make them pay with medium to long balls or they will sell out and smother the read option and run...--- Rodriguez actually ran a little out of the I and freshman star in the making McGuffie can get the corner and go. McGuffie is a real threat out of the backfield but is a HUGE liability in pass protection...--- The other starting freshman RB Shaw had 45 yards on two runs before leaving the game with a groin injury. Give him a crease and he's gone...---TE Butler has been quiet this year but a big mismatch.
An inch more and SDS goes up 20-7 late in the game. They gave up a whopping 483 yards the first week to Cal Poly so I'm surprised ND didn't have more success...---ND's OL looks to be similar to last years making it one of the worst in the country...---Clausen has a decent arm but can be rattled...--- I thought SDS played well on both sides of the trenches which you wouldn't like to see as an ND backer.
Having said all that I think ND might still pull one out. Michigan has thumped them two years straight and little Leprecaun might show up again...something always seems to go wrong in South Bend. Also look for a few questionable holding and pass interference calls.
grizzy... usually only have time to do write-ups on the best bets... still gotta get one done for the Cal game...
i really like Mich... you said a lot of good points... i don't like some of the skill position players for Mich, but i don't like the skill position players for ND either... so it comes down to everything else... and when it comes to everything else, i give the edge to Michigan... everywhere...
the way i see it, ND has a crappy defense... Michigan doesn't... both have crappy offenses... i think Michigan can shut them out... ND's offense is just sad... until i see otherwise i'll keep riding that fact against teams with a solid defense...
mhawkel... thanks... i always need luck on my side... cuz if its not on my side its against me, and that ain't good...
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grizzy... usually only have time to do write-ups on the best bets... still gotta get one done for the Cal game...
i really like Mich... you said a lot of good points... i don't like some of the skill position players for Mich, but i don't like the skill position players for ND either... so it comes down to everything else... and when it comes to everything else, i give the edge to Michigan... everywhere...
the way i see it, ND has a crappy defense... Michigan doesn't... both have crappy offenses... i think Michigan can shut them out... ND's offense is just sad... until i see otherwise i'll keep riding that fact against teams with a solid defense...
mhawkel... thanks... i always need luck on my side... cuz if its not on my side its against me, and that ain't good...
shepherd, do you bet your whole card or just some of the games? I mean, if you have 4 best bets, why bet 8 other games you are not as comfortable with. If you are successful betting 12-13 games a week, hats off. But I have not found many people that make money doing that.
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shepherd, do you bet your whole card or just some of the games? I mean, if you have 4 best bets, why bet 8 other games you are not as comfortable with. If you are successful betting 12-13 games a week, hats off. But I have not found many people that make money doing that.
Good insight...question on line moves....if line moves up or down say two points on a given team on a Saturday ie multitude of games... would you bet those moves??? seems like a lot of money to move the side or total two points. Thanks
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Good insight...question on line moves....if line moves up or down say two points on a given team on a Saturday ie multitude of games... would you bet those moves??? seems like a lot of money to move the side or total two points. Thanks
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.............good looking out on the info..........gl
Good insight...question on line moves....if line moves up or down say two points on a given team on a Saturday ie multitude of games... would you bet those moves??? seems like a lot of money to move the side or total two points. Thanks
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