Officially less than a month away from College Football being back. Got a vacation planned to help kill some of the rest of the lead-up time, but here are a few thoughts as we hit the final stretch before the season starts.
Lincoln Riley knows what the expectations are, and he let it be known that this team should compete for not only the conference title but the national title as well. In a day and age where people love to give themselves an easy way out, I kind of like how he is leaning into it. Their RSW total is set at 8.5 and 9-3 isn't getting anyone outside the SEC a playoff spot. Riley's never struggled putting up points but he will desperately need new DC Gary Patterson to make great strides with the defense if this Trojan team is going to make a run at 10-2.
They will be favored in 8-9 games; @ Penn State is where I'm unsure at the moment, as I don't have a clear read on what they will look like under Matt Campbell yet. Clear dogs vs Oregon, Ohio State, and @ Indiana. Which leads me to my current consideration: Would a 10-2 USC with losses to 2 of (Oregon, Ohio State, @ Indiana) would there be any question that they are in the CFB playoff? Need a little bit more intel on the defensive side of the ball coming after a few weeks of fall camp to clear up my opinion on one of the Trojans.
A lot is made of Texas. Very polarizing combo of head coach and QB. This is hands down the most talented roster in CFB going into the season. Texas spent the money and got instant difference makers on both sides of the ball. Texas will just have to prove for the first time in the last 17 years that they can live up to the hype. They will, in all likelihood, be favored in every single game (hosting Ohio State could be a PK by kickoff @ TEX -1.5 currently). It's quite simple to me: if Steve Sarkisian can't do it with this roster, then everyone will know without a doubt that he has found his ceiling as a really good coach but not a great one. Kirby has had Texas' number, and the Bulldogs' schedule sets up nicely for them to be in Atlanta for the SEC Title game. Texas has all the pieces needed to meet the Dawgs and beat them in Atlanta. Sarkisian himself will be what helps push Texas over the hump or gets them stuck on the climb. Will be very fun to watch starting week 2 vs Ohio State.
LSU is not a contender. Lane Kiffin is not Saban. This was a team that lacked so much physicality at the point of attack, to think Lane just flips them into a 10-win team against a schedule that has them @ Ole Miss (W3), hosting A&M (W4), vs Bama (W10), vs Texas (W11), @ Tennessee (W12). I do think Lane is a really good coach but Brian Kelly left the Tiger program in a bad spot. A few elite transfers are not enough to make up the gap in one offseason. 8-4 would be a solid start for Lane while seeing what he can do recruiting with the big money he has always dreamed of throwing around.
The rest of the ACC should be playing for 2nd as Miami is stacked on offense. Mensah transferring in from Duke when he should have gone pro and bringing his #1 WR target in Cooper Barkate to join the likes of Malachi Toney. The defense will have plenty of time to grow as they don't go to Clemson until October. Bye week before Florida State. Go to UNC before their trip to Notre Dame. They will be favored by 2+ scores 10-11 times this year. Miami will have to shoot themselves in the foot or deal with an awful injury to find themselves any worse than 11-1 this season.
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Officially less than a month away from College Football being back. Got a vacation planned to help kill some of the rest of the lead-up time, but here are a few thoughts as we hit the final stretch before the season starts.
Lincoln Riley knows what the expectations are, and he let it be known that this team should compete for not only the conference title but the national title as well. In a day and age where people love to give themselves an easy way out, I kind of like how he is leaning into it. Their RSW total is set at 8.5 and 9-3 isn't getting anyone outside the SEC a playoff spot. Riley's never struggled putting up points but he will desperately need new DC Gary Patterson to make great strides with the defense if this Trojan team is going to make a run at 10-2.
They will be favored in 8-9 games; @ Penn State is where I'm unsure at the moment, as I don't have a clear read on what they will look like under Matt Campbell yet. Clear dogs vs Oregon, Ohio State, and @ Indiana. Which leads me to my current consideration: Would a 10-2 USC with losses to 2 of (Oregon, Ohio State, @ Indiana) would there be any question that they are in the CFB playoff? Need a little bit more intel on the defensive side of the ball coming after a few weeks of fall camp to clear up my opinion on one of the Trojans.
A lot is made of Texas. Very polarizing combo of head coach and QB. This is hands down the most talented roster in CFB going into the season. Texas spent the money and got instant difference makers on both sides of the ball. Texas will just have to prove for the first time in the last 17 years that they can live up to the hype. They will, in all likelihood, be favored in every single game (hosting Ohio State could be a PK by kickoff @ TEX -1.5 currently). It's quite simple to me: if Steve Sarkisian can't do it with this roster, then everyone will know without a doubt that he has found his ceiling as a really good coach but not a great one. Kirby has had Texas' number, and the Bulldogs' schedule sets up nicely for them to be in Atlanta for the SEC Title game. Texas has all the pieces needed to meet the Dawgs and beat them in Atlanta. Sarkisian himself will be what helps push Texas over the hump or gets them stuck on the climb. Will be very fun to watch starting week 2 vs Ohio State.
LSU is not a contender. Lane Kiffin is not Saban. This was a team that lacked so much physicality at the point of attack, to think Lane just flips them into a 10-win team against a schedule that has them @ Ole Miss (W3), hosting A&M (W4), vs Bama (W10), vs Texas (W11), @ Tennessee (W12). I do think Lane is a really good coach but Brian Kelly left the Tiger program in a bad spot. A few elite transfers are not enough to make up the gap in one offseason. 8-4 would be a solid start for Lane while seeing what he can do recruiting with the big money he has always dreamed of throwing around.
The rest of the ACC should be playing for 2nd as Miami is stacked on offense. Mensah transferring in from Duke when he should have gone pro and bringing his #1 WR target in Cooper Barkate to join the likes of Malachi Toney. The defense will have plenty of time to grow as they don't go to Clemson until October. Bye week before Florida State. Go to UNC before their trip to Notre Dame. They will be favored by 2+ scores 10-11 times this year. Miami will have to shoot themselves in the foot or deal with an awful injury to find themselves any worse than 11-1 this season.
I'm fascinated to see the new faces at Oklahoma State, CAL, Kentucky, Iowa State, and Florida, as I like the hires each of these programs made. The transfer portal makes things a little easier, as we have seen a lot of these coaches bring in familiar faces from their previous rosters to help lay the groundwork for their year-one start. I am still of the camp that it's too much change in such a short period of time that it's not profitable to bet on early success for them, but Curt Cignetti did break that ceiling, which had been a decently successful betting strategy I've used over the years against programs under first-year head coaches. Saban started 7-6 in 2007, Kirby went 8-5 in 2016, Dabo got a head start taking over mid-season for Tommy Bowden, so his 9-5 first full year with an ACC Championship game appearance came after a 4-3 finish to the 2008 season. I see a lot of these coaches being in the 5-7 to 8-4 window as they lay their foundation to set up for a year 2 jump.
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I'm fascinated to see the new faces at Oklahoma State, CAL, Kentucky, Iowa State, and Florida, as I like the hires each of these programs made. The transfer portal makes things a little easier, as we have seen a lot of these coaches bring in familiar faces from their previous rosters to help lay the groundwork for their year-one start. I am still of the camp that it's too much change in such a short period of time that it's not profitable to bet on early success for them, but Curt Cignetti did break that ceiling, which had been a decently successful betting strategy I've used over the years against programs under first-year head coaches. Saban started 7-6 in 2007, Kirby went 8-5 in 2016, Dabo got a head start taking over mid-season for Tommy Bowden, so his 9-5 first full year with an ACC Championship game appearance came after a 4-3 finish to the 2008 season. I see a lot of these coaches being in the 5-7 to 8-4 window as they lay their foundation to set up for a year 2 jump.
Only one true dead man is walking this season, and that is Mike Norvell at Florida State. Looking at the schedule, I do not see how he is still coaching when they return from Miami to face Clemson on Halloween. Very likely 2-2 heading into October: vs Virginia, @ Louisville, @ Miami, vs Clemson. I have a hard time even seeing 6-6 with this team. They have tried to play the transfer game and done so unsuccessfully under Norvell. I think about the momentum they had after beating Alabama in Week 1 last season; they went on to dominate the cupcakes as good teams do. They then crumbled at the first sign of adversity and that is a direct reflection of the lack of believe the team has in each other and their coaches.
Some people may mention Dave Aranda @ Baylor being in a similar boat, but I do see the Bears' schedule as easier to get to 6-7 wins than FSU's.
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Only one true dead man is walking this season, and that is Mike Norvell at Florida State. Looking at the schedule, I do not see how he is still coaching when they return from Miami to face Clemson on Halloween. Very likely 2-2 heading into October: vs Virginia, @ Louisville, @ Miami, vs Clemson. I have a hard time even seeing 6-6 with this team. They have tried to play the transfer game and done so unsuccessfully under Norvell. I think about the momentum they had after beating Alabama in Week 1 last season; they went on to dominate the cupcakes as good teams do. They then crumbled at the first sign of adversity and that is a direct reflection of the lack of believe the team has in each other and their coaches.
Some people may mention Dave Aranda @ Baylor being in a similar boat, but I do see the Bears' schedule as easier to get to 6-7 wins than FSU's.
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ijs, dont kill me 
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