Fading the Public

You got me to buy a sub. 

On the ML, I notice that less than 1TD spreads, the money will often be on the dog (with your 30+ point difference), do you play all of those? I noticed in your 17-4 record day you only listed spreads and OU and no ML's.

Looks like a play today on Air Force / SJSU Under. 

Attached are the public leans as of this morning based on DraftKings data.  As a reminder, these are based on the percentages of the number of bets being laid on one particular side.  The benchmark here is 80% of the number of bets.  All O/U are for the over so far this week.

Florida State -2 (90%)

Maryland -7.5 (81%)

Colorado +21 (82%)

Florida -28 (84%)

Texas -14.5 (84%)

Louisiana -10 (89%)

South Carolina -6 (81%)

North Carolina -7.5 (81%)

USC -34.5 (81%)

Washington -20.5 (86%)

O/U

Va Tech/Marshall 41 (84%)

Rutgers/Michigan 44 (90%)

Duke/UConn 44.5 (80%)

Liberty/FIU 54.5 (89%)

Charlotte/Florida 48.5 (87%)

Sam Houston/Houston 38 (81%)

Arkansas/LSU 55 (83%)

Ore St/Wash St 59 (82%)

App St/Wyoming 43.5 (82%)

Texas/Baylor 49.5 (86%)

UAB/Georgia 55 (84%)

Last week, road teams getting the love went 3-7.  Those teams this week are:

Florida State

Maryland

Colorado

Texas

N Carolina

USC

Single digit favorites (home or away) were 2-6.  Teams that fall under that category are:

Florida St

Maryland

S Carolina

N Carolina

So far, YTD, spread is at 18-13-1, totals are 7-13

Looking at the teams who won by 20 last week, 5 appear in today's picks.  Last week, teams coming off 20 point wins with the public riding them went 3-5.  

Those teams are:

Maryland

Washington

Louisiana

Texas

Interestingly, Oregon is the 5th team and is a 21 point favorite over Colorado, but the public is all over the Buffaloes.

I also am going to look at teams that lost by 20+ last week for the first time to see if they are undervalued.  Those teams are:

Miss St +6 at S Carolina

Buffalo +10 at Louisiana

Mich St +7.5 vs Maryland

Ariz St +34.5 vs USC

The Maryland-MSU and Buffalo-Louisiana games contrasts teams coming off 20 point wins and 20 point losses.  Mich St is at home, Buffalo on the road.  Will look to see if there is any trend emerging in those types of matchups as the season progresses.

I will post later teams with a handle 30 percentage points greater than the percentage of bets laid.  Last weeks, games that fell into that category were 17-4.  Most were totals.

Good luck.

@race444

 I don't get a commission for that sub.

Yeah.  Agree about Air Force/SJSU.  Lots of money hitting the under with a small number of bets.

The next set of data shows the games where there is a 30 point differential between the amount of money and the number of bets.  I won't say this is "sharp money," per se.  But there is more money coming in on these games relative to the number of bets being placed.  Last week, looking at these games resulted in a 17-4 record.  The breakdown was ATS went 3-0 and the total went 14-4.

Cincinnati +14

Ball St +6.5

Ga Tech +4

Arkansas St +6

Sam Houston +12

Nevada +17

UCF +3.5

Washington -20.5

Last week, all ATS games were road dogs.  This week, there is a little more of a mix with Ga Tech, Sam Houston, Nevada, and UCF on the road - Cincy, Ball St, Ark St, and Washington at home.  The Huskies are the only favorite.

O/U

A Force/SJSU 45.5 (U)

Oklahoma/Cincy 57.5 (U)

SMU/TCU 62.5 (U)

Ga Sou/Ball St 61 (O)

Duke/Conn 44.5 (U)

FAU/Illinois 45.5 (U)

La Tech/Nebraska 47.5 (U)

Miami, Fl/Temple 47(U)

Okla St/Iowa St 36.5 (U)

Rice/S Florida 58 (O)

EMU/Jville St 52.5 (O)

CMU/S Ala 49 (U)

Ga Tech/Wake 60 (O)

Colo St/MTSU 51.5 (U)

Arizona/Stanford 60 (O)

Nevada/Tx State 60.5 (O)

Texas/Baylor 49.5 (U)

Buffalo/Louisiana 57.5 (U)

Minn/Nwstern 39.5 (U)

Miss St/S Carolina 47 (U)

UCF/Kansas St 52 (U)

UNLV/UTEP 50 (O)

Kent St/Fresno 48.5 (U)

Interesting to see if the first week trend using this data holds up.  Good luck.

thanks for the plays....best of luck this weekend

@King Creole42

 Same to you

I don't look at money lines for this.  Maybe I'll add that on this week.

Okay you are looking into weekly variations.  Part of doing this is eliminating teams. Top 10 or even better top 5 teams like USC do not vary as much.  They are favorites every week and most often big favorites.  I eliminate top 5 powers that usually dominate.  I also eliminate lines over -24 when the dog has a poor straight up victory chance. Even -24 is a stretch, but ATS still has sound results in my searches.

ad here you are.  avoid threads that disturb you.  

good luck 

Looks like the under is no longer 30 percentage points favored.

The Ball State moneyline is insane 70 percentage point difference. 

@jackedward32

 Thanks for the work,  extra resource is always appreciated.

@race444

 Dropped like a rock.

It’s seems like your investigation points to Michigan St +7.5 is the best play. Followed by Clemson and fading North Carolina. 

That was an incredible swing of percentages last night.  The under for A Force/SJSU went from 72 handle/29 volume to a 43/29 split right before game time.  

Explains why it is important to look at the splits as close to kickoff as possible.

Some changes this morning looking at the 80% number of the public:

Florida State -2 

Colorado +21 

Florida -28 

Texas -14.5 

Louisiana -10 USC -34.5 (81%)

Washington -20.5 (86%)

Adds:

Miami, FL -23

Tenn -23.5

 Dropping off: Maryland, N Carolina, S Carolina

O/U

Va Tech/Marshall 41 

Rutgers/Michigan 44 

Liberty/FIU 54.5 

Charlotte/Florida 48.5 

Ore St/Wash St 59 

Texas/Baylor 49.5 

UAB/Georgia 55 

Adds:

BYU/Kansas 54.5 (O)

Arizona/Stanford 60 (U)

Duke/Uconn, S Hou/Houston, Arkansas/LSU, App St/Wyoming all dropped off

Last week, road teams getting the love went 3-7.  Those teams this week are:

Florida State

Colorado

Texas

USC

Miami, FL (Add)

Single digit favorites (home or away) were 2-6.  Now, only one team falls under that category:

Florida St

Looking at the teams who won by 20 last week, 5 appear in today's picks.  Last week, teams coming off 20 point wins with the public riding them went 3-5.  

Those teams are now:

Washington

Louisiana

Texas

Interestingly, Oregon is the 5th team and is a 21 point favorite over Colorado, but the public is all over the Buffaloes.

The Buffalo-Louisiana game contrasts teams coming off 20 point wins and 20 point losses.  

All changes have been integrated into this post above.

The next set of data shows the UPDATED games where there is a 30 point differential between the amount of money and the number of bets.  I won't say this is "sharp money," per se.  But there is more money coming in on these games relative to the number of bets being placed.  Last week, looking at these games resulted in a 17-4 record.  The breakdown was ATS went 3-0 and the total went 14-4.

Cincinnati +14 (dropped)

Ball St +6.5

Ga Tech +4 (dropped)

Arkansas St +6 (dropped)

Sam Houston +12

Nevada +17 (dropped)

UCF +3.5

Washington -20.5 (dropped)

Troy -3.5 (added)

Last week, all ATS games were road dogs.  This week, there is a little more of a mix with Ga Tech, Sam Houston, Nevada, and UCF on the road - Cincy, Ball St, Ark St, and Washington at home.  The Huskies are the only favorite.

O/U

A Force/SJSU 45.5 (U)

Oklahoma/Cincy 57.5 (U)

SMU/TCU 62.5 (U)

Ga Sou/Ball St 61 (O)

Duke/Conn 44.5 (U)

FAU/Illinois 45.5 (U)

La Tech/Nebraska 47.5 (U)

Miami, Fl/Temple 47(U)

Okla St/Iowa St 36.5 (U)

Rice/S Florida 58 (O)

EMU/Jville St 52.5 (O)

CMU/S Ala 49 (U)

Ga Tech/Wake 60 (O)

Colo St/MTSU 51.5 (U) (dropped)

Arizona/Stanford 60 (O)

Nevada/Tx State 60.5 (O) (dropped)

Texas/Baylor 49.5 (U)

Buffalo/Louisiana 57.5 (U)

Minn/Nwstern 39.5 (U)

Miss St/S Carolina 47 (U) (dropped)

UCF/Kansas St 52 (U)

UNLV/UTEP 50 (O) (dropped)

Toledo/WMU 53.5 (U) (add)

App St/Wyoming 44 (U) (add)

Akron/Indiana 46 (U) (add)

Iowa/Penn St 38.5 (U) (add)

NMSU/Hawaii 56.5 (U) (add)

Best of luck this week.

Kent St/Fresno 48.5 (U)

Here's a couple moneyline games where the handle is 30 points higher than the percentage of bets laid:

Tulsa +160 (97/42)

Miss +215 (60/30)

FAU +525 (40/4)

BCU +440 (42/10)

Good luck

@jackedward32

 Thanks for the headsup

Results for Week 4.  Public ATS went 5-4 to move to 23-17.  Totals were 4-4-1 to move to 11-17-2

Florida State -2 W

Colorado +21 L

Florida -28 L

Texas -14.5 W

Louisiana -10 L

USC -34.5 L

Washington -20.5 W

Adds:

Miami, FL -23 W 

Tenn -23.5 W

 Dropping off: Maryland, N Carolina, S Carolina

O/U

Va Tech/Marshall 41 T

Rutgers/Michigan 44 L

Liberty/FIU 54.5 L

Charlotte/Florida 48.5 L 

Ore St/Wash St 59 W

Texas/Baylor 49.5 L

UAB/Georgia 55 W

Adds:

BYU/Kansas 54.5 (O) W

Arizona/Stanford 60 (U) W

Road teams finished at 3-2 bringing the overall record to 6-9.

Florida State W

Colorado L

Texas W

USC L

Miami, FL (Add) W

Single digit favorites (home or away) were 1-0 - 3-6 on the season.

Looking at the teams who won by 20 last week, 5 appear in today's picks.  Last week, teams coming off 20 point wins with the public riding them went 3-5.  

Those teams are now:

Washington W

Louisiana L

Texas W

Brings the teams in this category to 5-6.

The Buffalo-Louisiana game contrasts teams coming off 20 point wins and 20 point losses.  The dog (Buffalo) came out on top.

Not seeing anything remarkable with these categories this week.  Will keep it going.

Results for this data set this weekend:

The next set of data shows the UPDATED games where there is a 30 point differential between the amount of money and the number of bets.  I won't say this is "sharp money," per se.  But there is more money coming in on these games relative to the number of bets being placed.  Last week, looking at these games resulted in a 17-4 record.  The breakdown was ATS went 3-0 and the total went 14-4.

 The "smart" money went 0-4 ATS.  The hook for UCF and Troy was the difference maker for those two games.  It is what it is.  O/U went 9-14.

Since tracking this, the record stands overall at 26-22.  ATS is 3-4; O/U at 23-18.

Cincinnati +14 (dropped)

Ball St +6.5 L

Ga Tech +4 (dropped)

Arkansas St +6 (dropped)

Sam Houston +12 L

Nevada +17 (dropped)

UCF +3.5 L

Washington -20.5 (dropped)

Troy -3.5 (added) L

Last week, all ATS games were road dogs.  This week, there is a little more of a mix with Ga Tech, Sam Houston, Nevada, and UCF on the road - Cincy, Ball St, Ark St, and Washington at home.  The Huskies are the only favorite.

O/U

A Force/SJSU 45.5 (U) (dropped)

Oklahoma/Cincy 57.5 (U) W

SMU/TCU 62.5 (U) W

Ga Sou/Ball St 61 (O) L

Duke/Conn 44.5 (U) L

FAU/Illinois 45.5 (U) W

La Tech/Nebraska 47.5 (U) W

Miami, Fl/Temple 47(U) L

Okla St/Iowa St 36.5 (U) L

Rice/S Florida 58 (O) W

EMU/Jville St 52.5 (O) L

CMU/S Ala 49 (U) L

Ga Tech/Wake 60 (O) L

Colo St/MTSU 51.5 (U) (dropped)

Arizona/Stanford 60 (O) L

Nevada/Tx State 60.5 (O) (dropped)

Texas/Baylor 49.5 (U) W

Buffalo/Louisiana 57.5 (U) L

Minn/Nwstern 39.5 (U) L

Miss St/S Carolina 47 (U) (dropped)

UCF/Kansas St 52 (U) L

UNLV/UTEP 50 (O) (dropped)

Toledo/WMU 53.5 (U) (add) L

App St/Wyoming 44 (U) (add) W

Akron/Indiana 46 (U) (add) L

Iowa/Penn St 38.5 (U) (add) W

NMSU/Hawaii 56.5 (U) (add) W

Kent St/Fresno 48.5 (U) L

thanks for the breakdown

yeah, I saw some poor results this week. The week prior (when it went 17-4), when did you last check the table? I was checking before every set of games, but maybe there’s a better time.

@race444

 Looked last around 11am EDT before I ran out for the day and made the adjustments.  It's only 2 weeks of data.  This week should tell more.

Yeah, I'm with you on it, I think it'll improve. 

I definitely like the idea. 

I'm leaning towards pulling numbers from earlier in the week. Like say, today or tomorrow before the public dilutes the percentages closer to the weekend. I feel like I had a clear picture up until Thursday and then the numbers moved a lot.