Fading the Public

I'm curious to compare the public and how they fare against the spread and O/U.  So I am listing the side where 80% of the bets are on one side.  Here are this week's teams where the public has 80%+ confidence.  It should be interesting.

Utah -7

Colorado -3

Kansas St -16.5

N Dame -7.5

Fla Atlantic -3.5

Oklahoma -16

Oregon -6

Florida St -31

Okla St -3

O/U (all of these are overs, no unders)

Utah/Baylor 46.5

Ball St/Georgia 52.5

N Dame/NC State 50.5

App St/N Carolina 82

Cincy/Pitt 45

Oregon/Tx Tech 69

UCLA/SDSU 48.5

S Miss/Fla St 53.5

Auburn/Cal 54.5

Hoping to see some patterns to fade the public down the road.

The first question I would ask is, where are you getting your data?

once we determine that I can answer your questions. 

@steponaduck

 Good question.  Using Draft Kings data viaVSiN.

The problem is now isn't where most of the betting is done

It is the day of.

Can't count public money until shortly beforre gam starts.

@smellybunty

Makes sense.  But wouldn't you say the casual bettor is laying money during the week moreso than the better educated ones (not sharps so much) at the start of the week and on gameday?  The public is all over Colorado right now because they beat an overrated TCU team that was gutted by "graduation" last year.  That percentage is at 91% of the bets being made right now.  The line opened at 3 and has sat there all week (although I see Fan Duel moved it to -2.5- but they're the outlier).  I don't see that line moving too much if at all.

I will re-adjust if I see any changes in the data tomorrow.

Don't worry about who anybody else is on. I can all but guarantee over time its close to 50/50.....the public will more often than not be on the favorite and/or the over.....expecting dogs to win or teams to not score is something that takes effort to develop......

GL 

The public loves favorites and overs. I been betting underdogs for years it's a nightmare. Tonight I'm on Kansas, a favorite. The public wins and get hot.... fading the public is dangerous!

finding line valuation is difficult to do if you are only using current week consensus.

you need to dig deeper. 

Colorado -3 

@FredLeonard

 Im on KS big

i have no clue why "public" money would be going on oklahoma state. not saying they can't cover at az st, but they got pushed around most of the game against c ark last week at home...on both sides of the ball really. little gundy came in and made a few good plays in the 4th...but none of the 3 qbs looked very good. i was shocked to see them laying points this week vs anyone.

@Glccskippy

 The entire betting planet is on the Buffs. This has the makings of a massive let down. Idk, Colorado has the way better QB, better guys on the outside. I guess Nebraska may be better in the trenches. This is a tough one but my gut and experience says in this spot, I'll buy a half a point and take the Huskers plus 3.5.

@nickelndimes

 kinda seems like the obvious play, right? i didn't even buy points. just left it at the 2.5 i got thurs night. betting small money, because it is hard to have any confidence in nebraska after watching them blow game after game. i do like the coaching matchup...but i think colorado and this game are way over hyped. 

@uncle_r

 One of those “too good to be true lines” that Vegas seems to always win. I’m staying far away from this one. 

@nickelndimes

 TCU is overrated heading into the season. They lost virtually every key player from last year. Nebraska lost a tough game against an excellent defense last week. Couple that with a young team heading into a possible letdown as you said, and it will be close. Would be surprised if it’s a high scoring game like last week. If Nebraska had a capable QB, I could see Nebraska winning this by 10-14. But they don’t, so they’ll need to try to smash Colorado in the mouth and slow it down to a crawl. Should be within a TD. 

of course, now that I say that, watch the Buffs roll the Huskers and prove Colorado to be legit. 

@jackedward32

 if they do then just take your losses back in a couple weeks against oregon. with all the espn love colorado will probably be laying points, if they take care of nebraska and little bro. 

edit...of course i know they won't be fav's. but it will be way off with all the hype, and the ducks will handle them easily imo.

All i ever see all over the internet is public this and public that.  If all the bettors that hang out on gambling forums arent the public, then who is this mystery group called the public that everybody tries to fade?  Gamblers need to start realizing that unless you are some super sharp gambler that makes a living betting year in and year out, then the truth is you are the public.  We are the public, there is no super mystery group called the public.  This is probably one of the biggest mistake gamblers make in their minds.  So all the numbers you see on consensus websites, gambling forums and even sportsbooks are the totals of all us bettors "THE PUBLIC"

Oh and 1 last thing, GOOD LUCK with all your picks everybody.  Beat the books

You can't be representative of the public if you're not betting with them.

TCU threw 42 times. The field will be much less open for meh RB's. Maybe Sims throws to the right team this week and spreads the field...the public would be wise in thinking that is the less likely scenario.

@otisxiii

That's a big if.  Sims was awful against Minnesota.  Colorado's D is much worse.  We'll see if Sims is bad or just was challenged against a good defense.  Either way, I'm assuming Nebraska tries to run the ball as much as they can and not lean on their QB to make plays.

@jackedward32

Some small shifts so far, but all are still in the 80%+ range except for the Oregon/Tx Tech O/U which dipped to 79%.  Will keep following just up until game time.

@TRAIN69

 Well stated 69

@uncle_r

 could be a live dog in the making