Fading the Public

if you have a Draft kings account are you able to access the betting splits info?

Results for Week 4.  Public ATS went 5-4 to move to 23-17.  Totals were 4-4-1 to move to 11-17-2.  Reminder this is for the volume of bets made.  As we dive into week 5, there is a lower number of plays that meet this criteria.  Here is what I have as of this morning using DraftKings data:

BCU -3.5

Georgia -14

Maryland -14

Michigan -17

Toledo -13

W Michigan -1.5

Memphis -3

Missouri -13.5

Wyoming -14

LSU -2.5

Oregon -27

App St -13.5

Pitt -2.5

Bama -14.5

Washington -20

Fresno -24.5

Totals (all overs unless noted)

Georgia/Auburn 45.5

Michigan/Nebraska 39

Illinois/Purdue 53.5 (under)

ECU/Rice 46.5

CCU/Ga Southern 66 (under)

SDSU/A Force 52.5

Road teams this week getting the love:

Georgia

Michigan

Missouri

LSU

Oregon

App St

Pitt

Bama

Washington

Lots of road chalk which has shown to favor home covers (based on 2 weeks ago).

Single digit favorites this week:

BCU (H)

WMU (H)

Memphis (H)

LSU (A)

Pitt (A)

Teams falling into this category coming off 20 point wins (only FBS games considered):

Georgia

Michigan

Oregon

Maryland

Fresno

I will share a new post looking strictly at the handle based on the 80%+ threshold to see how those games fare as well as the 30 point differential between handle and bet volume.

Good luck! 

No.  It is available at VSIN.  But it costs a subscription.  (I do not work for VSIN)

The next set of data shows the UPDATED games where there is a 30 point differential between the amount of money and the number of bets.  I won't say this is "sharp money," per se.  But there is more money coming in on these games relative to the number of bets being placed.  Last week, looking at these games resulted in a 17-4 record.  The breakdown was ATS went 3-0 and the total went 14-4.

 The "smart" money went 0-4 ATS.  The hook for UCF and Troy was the difference maker for those two games.  It is what it is.  O/U went 9-14.

Since tracking this, the record stands overall at 26-22.  ATS is 3-4; O/U at 23-18.

Here are the numbers for this week:

S Florida +3  86/47

S Miss +5.5 72/33

Totals

Buffalo/Akron 55.5 (O) 82/52

UAB/Tulane 58.5 (O) 76/46

S Ala/JMU 49.5 (U)  90/32

Georgia/Auburn 45.5 (U)  73/18

NIU/Toledo 47 (U)  93/30

Ark St/Mass 56 (O)  93/43

N Mexico/Wyoming 40.5 (U)  90/37

Texas St/S Miss 61.5 (O)  68/23

CCU/Ga Sou 66 (O)  82/20

S Carolina/Tenn 61.5 (U)  87/56

App St/ULM 51 (U)  78/42

Best of luck this week.

who is BCU?

Here are some moneyline games with a 30 point differential between the handle and the volume of bets:

Conn +185 89/14

EMU +245 40/8

Ariz St +340 43/9

Baylor +360 51/13

S Florida +136 85/49

Houston +260 61/9

Mass -135 89/58

Hawaii +300 53/6

S Miss +180 49/12

CCU +205 87/16

Mich St +350 41/7

S Carolina +330 61/14

ULM +410 51/4

W Va +470 46/9

Finally a new data set that is looking at the handle that is 80%+.  This will be a good look to see if this uncovers any trends:

Akron -2.5

Utah St -5.5

Georgia -14

Maryland -14

S Florida +3

WMU -1.5

Mass -2

Missouri -13.5

Wyoming -14

LSU -2.5

Oregon -27

Ga Sou -6.5

SMU -23.5

App St -13.5

TCU -14.5

Pitt -2.5

Bama -14.5

Washington -20

Fresno -24.5

Totals

Buffalo/Akron 55.5 (O)

Utah St/Conn 51 (U)

S Ala/JMU 49.5 (U)

ODU/Marshall 47.5 (O)

Michigan/Nebraska 39 (O)

Illinois/Purdue 53.5 (U)

NIU/Toledo 47 (U)

Ball St/WMU 50.5 (U)

Ark St/Mass 56 (O)

N Mexico/Wyoming 40.5 (U)

CCU/Ga Sou 66 (O)

S Carolina/Tenn 61.5 (U)

Let's see how these go.  I am going to look at the volume and handles to see if there are correlations and trends based on how the public is betting.

@steponaduck

 Boston College University

wasnt sure...I like BC too

Correct. Per Draft Kings, over 80% of the money coming in so far is on the over. 

@jackedward32

 not sure id trust a sportsbook giving out that kind of info... not saying they are working against bettors but the interests are not aligned

i use thespread.com... solid and accurate

dont trust action network either

@invest4profits

 Just looked at their site. The percentages they give - is that the $ amount or number of bets?  Do you know where they get their data from?

@jackedward32

 not certain... but i believe its a compilation of offshore sportsbooks

I'm a nit so I had to check...it's just Boston College...

What does public love? I assume positive momentum, dominant performances and FADE horrendous programs.. Do public love temporary (???) weakness? I.e. Clemson

I could not believe that total... Can't Michigan do that on their own? Nebraska is decent offense. Nice new running an (good and bad for over)

Here is a list of teams I am on this week:

NC St.

S.ALA

NO. ILL

CINCY

TROY

SO. MISS

E. MICH

BUFF

VANDY

Colorado

All of these teams have at least one of the following.

They didnt cover last week or they have a few cover losses in a row.

They got blown away last week or the week before and have yet to stand up. 

The books adjust numbers and most bettors dont trust the unknown.  There a lot of unknowns here and thats why books adjust in my opinion. 

I will make my Saturday edition in my thread soon.

@jimrockford22

 They should. But I always find that if a number is too good to be true- it usually is. Nebraska has a great defense and Michigan likes the slow churn on offense. I could see them putting up 40, but I also can see a 24-7 game too. Michigan’s first road game of the year too. 

@spottie2935

Good stuff :)... I agree on "too good to be true" situations being net losers

mich 1st road gm, very windy from my understanding, NEB D is SOLID....NEB QB is garbage... I like the under 39 1/2  and MICH TT U 28 1/2 

The dust has cleared from the past weekend, so let's look at how the public did.  This set of data is based on the total number of bets reaching the threshold of 80%+

BCU -3.5 L

Georgia -14 L

Maryland -14 W

Michigan -17 W

Toledo -13 L

W Michigan -1.5 W

Memphis -3 T

Missouri -13.5 W

Wyoming -14 L

LSU -2.5 L

Oregon -27 W

App St -13.5 L

Pitt -2.5 L

Bama -14.5 W

Washington -20 L

Fresno -24.5 L

Totals (all overs unless noted)

Georgia/Auburn 45.5 W

Michigan/Nebraska 39 W

Illinois/Purdue 53.5 (under) L

ECU/Rice 46.5 L

CCU/Ga Southern 66 (under) T

SDSU/A Force 52.5 W

Road teams this week getting the love:

Georgia L 

Michigan W

Missouri W

LSU L

Oregon W

App St L

Pitt L

Bama W

Washington L

Lots of road chalk which has shown to favor home covers (based on 2 weeks ago).

Single digit favorites this week:

BCU (H) L

WMU (H) W

Memphis (H) T

LSU (A) L

Pitt (A) L

Teams falling into this category coming off 20 point wins (only FBS games considered):

Georgia L

Michigan W

Oregon W

Maryland W

Fresno L

Records for the week show that the teams bettors were high on by volume went 6-9-1 ATS and were 3-2-1 on totals, bringing season to date to 29-26-1 and 14-19-3 respectively.

Road favorites went 4-5 bringing this set of bets to 10-14.

Single digit favorites went 1-3-1 or 4-9-1 overall.

Teams coming off 20 point wins were 3-2 this week.  Overall this group is 8-8.

The next set is where the handle was 30 percent greater than the number bets placed.

S Florida +3  86/47 W

S Miss +5.5 72/33 L

Totals

Buffalo/Akron 55.5 (O) 82/52 L

UAB/Tulane 58.5 (O) 76/46 L

S Ala/JMU 49.5 (U)  90/32 L

Georgia/Auburn 45.5 (U)  73/18 L

NIU/Toledo 47 (U)  93/30 L

Ark St/Mass 56 (O)  93/43 W

N Mexico/Wyoming 40.5 (U)  90/37 L

Texas St/S Miss 61.5 (O)  68/23 W

CCU/Ga Sou 66 (O)  82/20 T

S Carolina/Tenn 61.5 (U)  87/56 W

App St/ULM 51 (U)  78/42 L

ATS went 1-1 moving YTD to 27-23.  Totals were a miserable 3-7-1 moving YTD to 26-25-1.

I started looking at moneyline games with a 30 point differential between the handle and the volume of bets.

Conn +185 89/14 L (W ATS)

EMU +245 40/8 L (W ATS)

Ariz St +340 43/9 L (W ATS)

Baylor +360 51/13 W (W ATS)

S Florida +136 85/49 W (W ATS)

Houston +260 61/9 L (L ATS)

Mass -135 89/58 L (L ATS)

Hawaii +300 53/6 L (L ATS)

S Miss +180 49/12 L (L ATS)

CCU +205 87/16 L (L ATS)

Mich St +350 41/7 L (W ATS)

S Carolina +330 61/14 L (L ATS)

ULM +410 51/4 L (W ATS)

W Va +470 46/9 W (W ATS)

As expected, moneyline records were subpar at 3-11.  Looking at how these games went ATS, the record is at 8-6.  The only favorite that made this set was UMass who lost.  Dogs at +300 or above were 5-2, with that number improving the higher the potential payout.  A new metric I will start tracking.

Home teams went 2-1 ATS.  Road teams were 6-5.  Do not think there is any correlation to where the game is played at this time.  Handles of 50+ were 4-5, so nothing of note there.