Fading the Public

Public percentages for noon games:

Utah -7 87%

Utah/Baylor 45.5 O 83%

Colorado -3 88%

Georgia -42 86%

Ball St/Georgia 53 O 92%

Kansas St -15 83%

ND -7 87%

Week 2 Results:

Utah -7 T

Colorado -3 W

Kansas St -16.5 W

N Dame -7.5 W

Fla Atlantic -3.5 L

Oklahoma -16 W

Oregon -6 W

Florida St -31 W

Okla St -3 W

Utah/Baylor 46.5 L

Ball St/Georgia 52.5 L

ND/NC St 50.5 W

App St/N Carolina 82 L

Cincy/Pitt 45 W

Oregon/Tx Tech 69 L

UCLA/SDSU 48.5 L

S Miss/Fla St 53.5 W

Auburn/Cal 54.5 L

The public crushed it vs the spread, but got beat vs the total.

ATS 7-1-1

O/U 3-6

Will keep track all season.

@jackedward32

 Interesting stuff!  Do keep it going!      

Lots of road chalk this week.  Could be an interesting Saturday.

Go back a week or even 2 weeks ago.

On your list which teams have covered all their games ? 

which team were high on the consensus list last week and covered.  Usually lines adjust against those public teams the next week.  

the books job is to make betting random and volatile. 

I don’t think the current week alone provides value.  The previous weeks along with heavily bet teams are most trusted.  

Don’t just stay in the current week.  The books hang a number and most times the adjustment comes sooner than later.  

Good points.  Just started tracking week 2.  Will look back and see what adjustments in the lines were made.

Youi can add something to my game.  I am too busy doing my thing so your work and findings will be helpful and profitable. 

Week 3 where 80%+ of the public is on one side:

Florida St -26

Penn St -14.5

Kansas St -4

Iowa St -3

Wake -14

ND -34.5

Duke -18.5

NC -7.5

Alabama -33

Oklahoma -28.5

TOSU -29.5

Tulane -13

Tenn -6.5

Nebraska -11

Okla St -7

Toledo -7

UAB -2.5

Clemson -24.5

TCU -7

Oregon -38

Colorado -24

Kansas -28

Arizona -18

O/U (All are for over the total)

FSU/BCU 48

PSU/Illinois 48.5

So Cal/Georgia 54.5

SDSU/Oregon St 48.5

ECU/App St 47.5

ULM/TxA&M 53.5

Miami, Oh/Cincy 44.5

S Alabama/Okla St 48.5

JMU/Troy 46.5

FAU/Clemson 51.5

Wyoming/Texas 48.5

First observation - there are a lot of road dogs with big numbers that the public loves this weekend.  Could this be a weekend Vegas gets some revenge on the public?

The following teams won by 20+ last week and have the public riding them in high numbers:

Colorado

Georgia

ND

Kansas St

TOSU

Penn St

Clemson

Toledo

I'll track these and see how the public does.  I won't be able to update tomorrow as I will be in East Lansing watching what the Mel Tucker effect will be against Michael Pennix & Co.

Best of luck this weekend.

@jackedward32

 That’s a good list.  See what happens.  

Week 3:

Spread: 11-12

O/U 4-7

Total:18-13-1

O/U: 7-13

The public was slightly below .500 but is still at 58% the past two weeks ATS.  The O/U is at a paltry 35%

Spread: 

Week 3 where 80%+ of the public is on one side:

Florida St -26  L

Penn St -14.5  W

Kansas St -4  L

Iowa St -3  L

Wake -14  L

ND -34.5  L

Duke -18.5  W

NC -7.5  W

Alabama -33  L

Oklahoma -28.5  W

TOSU -29.5  W

Tulane -13  W

Tenn -6.5  L

Nebraska -11  W

Okla St -7  L

Toledo -7  L

UAB -2.5  L

Clemson -24.5  W

TCU -7  W

Oregon -38  W

Colorado -24  L

Kansas -28  L

Arizona -18  W

O/U (All are for over the total)

FSU/BCU 48 W

PSU/Illinois 48.5  L

So Cal/Georgia 54.5  L

SDSU/Oregon St 48.5  L

ECU/App St 47.5  W

ULM/TxA&M 53.5  L

Miami, Oh/Cincy 44.5  W

S Alabama/Okla St 48.5  L

JMU/Troy 46.5  L

FAU/Clemson 51.5  W

Wyoming/Texas 48.5  L

Teams on the road ATS with 80%+ of the public on them went 3-7. Single digit favorites (home or away) were 2-6.

Teams that won by 20 the previous week and had 80%+ of the public on its side went 3-5.

Will keep tracking to see if there are any kinds of trends that emerge.

@jackedward32

 see i told you.  by eliminating so many useless games my way was 5-3.

@spottie2935

 Good catch.  Also road favorites went 3-7 which stood out and makes sense. 

@jackedward32

 One other interesting thing I started tracking this week was looking at bets where there were significant differences between the number of betters compared with a significant reduction of money put down.

In a case where there was around a 30+ difference in handle vs. the total number of bets laid, the sharp money came out on top 17-4.  Below is the data:

Mass +7 85 (handle)/41 (% of bets) W

Mass/EMU 50.5 (under) 92/58 W

FIU +7 82/48 W

Miami, Oh +14 70/29 W

S Alabama +7 52/16 W

Louisville/Indiana 50.5 (under) 72/45 W (OK - close to a 30 point differential)

Iowa St/Ohio 42.5 (under) 91/54 W

Wake/ODU 62 (over) 92/41 W

Tulane/S Miss 49.5 (under) 79/29 W

Ga State/Charlotte 52 (under) 97/42 L

N Texas/La Tech 69 (over) 76/36 W

NIU/Nebraska 42 (under) 77/49 L

SJSU/Toledo 56.5 (under) W

JMU/Troy 46.5 (under) 58/15 W

La-Laf/UAB 59.5 (over) 81/50 W

Vandy/UNLV 59 (over) 62/27 W

BYU/Arkansas 47.5 (under) 72/33 L

Akron/Kentucky 49 (under) 71/34 W

Pitt/W Va 48 (under) 84/25 W

NMSU/N Mex 53.5 (under) 85/44 W

UTEP/Arizona 57.5 (over) 92/46 L

Very interesting.

17-4 is remarkable.

@jackedward32

 i cant seem to find where this info is posted on their website...appreciate your help. Thanks

@King Creole42

 vsin.com

There's a Betting Splits section there where they track these numbers from DraftKings.

@jackedward32

 thanks...found it...says that u need a subscription for it

@King Creole42

 I do have a subscription.  It must be one of the features for subscribers only.

@jackedward32

 gotcha....have u noticed this held up for nfl this past weekend or wasnt there discrepancies like there is for college?

@King Creole42

 I'm only evaluating CFB.  I can try to look at NFL this week and see if there is a similar correlation.

Looking at tonight's games, there is not a significant change between handle and bets.  The closest to it is the O/U for Pittsburgh and Cleveland.  52% of the bets are on the under but 75% of the money is, so looking like more money leaning toward the under.  But I like the 30 point differential bc it is much more significant.

i could only view 3 mlb games using your system and would have gone 3-0, including a dog win on the mets.

@King Creole42

 Small sample, but following the money is a good thing to consider when using the public as a barometer. 

GAS on the ML hit last night :)....is there a certain time in the day  that you gather your information to make your plays?for the big card on saturdays will u normally  look at the night before numbers or wait until near kickoff....Scores and odds also has the splits but i dont think theyre as accurate as vsin.

All this is very intriguing.  Hope you keep it going all season!  Thanks for all your effort 

I start looking at CFB today.  If there are games that hit those numbers, I add them to a spreadsheet I have (I'm old school).  I will start checking those games to see what is backing up the numbers the public sees (usually perception) and what the money is seeing (more stats, situations, other variables).  Once I have an idea of who I want to pick, I will wait until Saturday morning and see where the numbers are.  If I can, I check about an hour prior to kick off to see where the public is and what the handle is and if it fits what my research shows, I will wager.