Fading the Public

This final data set looks strictly at handle at 80%+.  This is the first week I tracked this metric.

Akron -2.5 L

Utah St -5.5 L

Georgia -14 L

Maryland -14 W

S Florida +3 W

WMU -1.5 W

Mass -2 L

Missouri -13.5 W

Wyoming -14 L

LSU -2.5 L

Oregon -27 W

Ga Sou -6.5 W

SMU -23.5 L

App St -13.5 L

TCU -14.5 L

Pitt -2.5 L

Bama -14.5 W

Washington -20 L

Fresno -24.5 L

Totals

Buffalo/Akron 55.5 (O) L

Utah St/Conn 51 (U) L

S Ala/JMU 49.5 (U) L

ODU/Marshall 47.5 (O) W

Michigan/Nebraska 39 (O) W

Illinois/Purdue 53.5 (U) L

NIU/Toledo 47 (U) L

Ball St/WMU 50.5 (U) L

Ark St/Mass 56 (O) W

N Mexico/Wyoming 40.5 (U) L

CCU/Ga Sou 66 (O) T

S Carolina/Tenn 61.5 (U) W

ATS this week was 7-12; totals went 4-7-1.  Good job Vegas.

Visitors went 4-6, home teams were 3-6 - nothing of note.

Teams coming off 20 point wins the previous week went 2-3 in this set.

Gonna play La Tech +6 tonight. Seeing the handle on the moneyline at 56% with only 24% of the bets laid. Using previous stats as a home team, the 6 points have value. 

Looking at games where the number of bets are at 80+% for this weekend.  So far games meeting this metric are 29-26-1 ATS and 14-19-3. O/U

Wash St +3.5

Fla St -23

Iowa -2.5

Bama -2.5

Rice -9.5

Colorado -3.5

Michigan -18

Colo St -3.5

Oreg St -7.5

All totals are over

Cornell/Harvard 51.5

Maryland/TOSU 57

Marshall/NC St 43.5

Wake/Clemson 52.5

Va Tech/Fla St 53

BGSU/Miami Oh 44

Colorado/Ariz St 59

Minn/Michigan 46

Fresno/Wyoming 43

Road favorites in these games are:

Bama

Colorado

Michigan

Oreg St

Road favorites to date are 10-14

Looking at this data, single digit favorites overall are 4-9-1

Teams off 20 wins are 8-8.  Those teams this week are:

Michigan

Bama

Games with a 30 point differential between handles and number of bets this week are:

UTSA -14

Ball St +2.5

Va Tech +23.5

ULM +10

Arizona +21

So far this year, teams with this grouping are 27-23.  Next are the totals.  All of these are for the under unless noted.  O/U this year is 26-25-1.

Rutgers/Wisconsin 44

Marshall/NC St 43.5

UTSA/Temple 55

Ball St/EMU 43

BGSU/Miami, Oh 44

Kent St/Ohio 45.5

S Florida/UAB 68.5 (Over)

Conn/Rice 47.5

Kentucky/Georgia 47.5

S Ala/ULM 51

Fresno/Wyoming 43

Looking at moneyline with a 30 point differential between the handle and number of bets.  Last week's interesting observation: 

Dogs at +300 or above were 5-2, with that number improving the higher the potential payout.  I will be watching Temple ATS this week.

This week's games:

UTSA/Temple Temple +455

NIU/Akron Akron +160

Texas St/Louisiana Texas St +110

S Florida/UAB UAB +140

Moneyline S/U was 3-11 last week, ATS went 8-6.

Last group is where the handle is at 80+%.  Teams in this set went 7-12 ATS; totals went 4-7-1.  All totals are over unless noted.

Texas -5.5

C Mich -3

Ball St +2.5

Rice -9.5

ULM +10

N Dame -6

Michigan -18

Tx Tech -1.5

Cornell/Harvard 51.5

UTSA/Temple 55

Va Tech/Fla St 53

Texas St/Louisiana 66.5

N Texas/Navy 61

Kent St/Ohio 45.5 (Under)

UCF/Kansas 64

S Florida/UAB 68.5

Tulsa/FAU 54

Colorado/Ariz St 59

Tx Tech/Baylor 59.5

Visitors went 4-6, home teams were 3-6.

Teams coming off 20 point wins the previous week went 2-3 in this set.

@Wikary

Results from the weekend:

Results of games with a 30 point differential between handles and number of bets.  So far this year, teams with this grouping are 30-25:

UTSA -14 W

Ball St +2.5 L

Va Tech +23.5 W

ULM +10 L

Arizona +21 W

Next are the totals.  All of these are for the under unless noted.  O/U this year is 31-31-1.

Rutgers/Wisconsin 44 W

Marshall/NC St 43.5 L

UTSA/Temple 55 L

Ball St/EMU 43 W

BGSU/Miami, Oh 44 W

Kent St/Ohio 45.5 L

S Florida/UAB 68.5 (Over) W

Conn/Rice 47.5 L

Kentucky/Georgia 47.5 L

S Ala/ULM 51 L

Fresno/Wyoming 43 W

Like the volume of bets laid, so far both metrics look like nothing to hold onto.

Looking at moneyline with a 30 point differential between the handle and number of bets. 

Dogs at +300 or above are 5-3, with that number improving the higher the potential payout.  

This week's games:

UTSA/Temple Temple +455 L

NIU/Akron Akron +160 L

Texas St/Louisiana Texas St +110 L

S Florida/UAB UAB +140 W

For the season, moneyline S/U is 4-12 , ATS is 10-8.

Some value maybe on teams getting larger handles than bets with a higher moneyline payout.  Will watch.

Last group is where the handle is at 80+%.  Teams in this set are 9-18 ATS; totals are 9-13-1.  All totals are over unless noted.

Texas -5.5 L

C Mich -3 L

Ball St +2.5 L

Rice -9.5 L

ULM +10  L

N Dame -6 L

Michigan -18 W

Tx Tech -1.5 W

Cornell/Harvard 51.5 W

UTSA/Temple 55 W

Va Tech/Fla St 53 W

Texas St/Louisiana 66.5 L

N Texas/Navy 61 L

Kent St/Ohio 45.5 (Under) L

UCF/Kansas 64 W

S Florida/UAB 68.5 W

Tulsa/FAU 54 L

Colorado/Ariz St 59 L

Tx Tech/Baylor 59.5 L

Teams coming off 20 point wins the previous week went 1-0 in this set.  3-3 since I started tracking two weeks ago.

There is definitely some value with this data, particularly with the ATS.

Let’s try the model In tonight’s game. 83% of the money is on Liberty. 

Jacksonville St +6

This week's data is going to only look at 2 metrics, since volume of bets and handle vs. volume does not seem to show any trends worth noting.  I am going to track games with over 80% of the money on it and moneyline with a 30 point differential between handle and volume of bets.

Parentheses at the end of each game is where the line started to track line movement.  Let's see if the line is adjusting as a significant amount of money is coming in on one side but the line stays or moves in the opposite direction where bookmakers are begging people to take the line a certain way by sweetening the pot.

Games with high handles so far this year are 9-18 ATS.  The total is 9-13-1.

Colorado -12.5 (11)

Ohio St -19 (20)

Toledo -17 (15.5)

BGSU +4.5 (5.5) 

S Carolina -2.5 (2)

S Florida -2.5 (2.5)

N Mexico +7 (9)

Ga State -1 (+1) 

Duke -3 (3.5) 

Colo St +8.5 (7)

Iowa St/Cincy 42.5 (U) (49)

Kent St/EMU 40.5 (45)

Navy/Charlotte 42.5 (U) (45)

Troy/Army 42.5 (U) (44)

Tx A&M/Tenn 54.5 (U) (56.5)

Miami, O/WMU 45 (U) (53.5)

UNLV/Nevada 53.5 (U) (56)

Kansas/Tx Tech 56.5 (58)

ULM/Texas St 63.5 (62.5) 

Marshall/Ga State 53 (U) (57)

NC St/Duke 44 (U) (48)

Boise/Colo St 60.5 (U) (62)

Looking at the moneyline games, ATS is at 10-8, although games with higher odds seem to do a better job covering the spread if they fall into this category (usually returns improve when the odds are above +300 - no games meet that this week, but I am going to track anyway as there may be some value here).

Temple +215 (Temple +6.5)

Charlotte +136 (Charlotte +3)

BYU +180 (BYU +5.5)

NIU +180 (NIU +6.5)

Hawaii +195 (Hawaii +6)

Good luck this week.

Results from Saturday's slate.  Looking at teams with a high handle on them (80%+)

Colorado -12.5 (11) L

Ohio St -19 (20) W

Toledo -17 (15.5) L

BGSU +4.5 (5.5) W

S Carolina -2.5 (2) L

S Florida -2.5 (2.5) L

N Mexico +7 (9) L

Ga State -1 (+1) W

Duke -3 (3.5) W

Colo St +8.5 (7) W

Iowa St/Cincy 42.5 (U) (49) W

Kent St/EMU 40.5 (45) W

Navy/Charlotte 42.5 (U) (45) W

Troy/Army 42.5 (U) (44) W

Tx A&M/Tenn 54.5 (U) (56.5) W

Miami, O/WMU 45 (U) (53.5) L

UNLV/Nevada 53.5 (U) (56) L

Kansas/Tx Tech 56.5 (58) W

ULM/Texas St 63.5 (62.5) L

Marshall/Ga State 53 (U) (57) L

NC St/Duke 44 (U) (48) W

Boise/Colo St 60.5 (U) (62) W

ATS went 5-5, O/U was 8-4.  Overall these numbers stand at 14-23 and 17-21-1 respectively.

Looking at moneyline wagers in this model, here are the results:

Temple +215 (Temple +6.5) L/L

Charlotte +136 (Charlotte +3) L/L

BYU +180 (BYU +5.5) L/L

NIU +180 (NIU +6.5) W/W

Hawaii +195 (Hawaii +6) L/L

S/U fared as expected, going 1-5.  ATS did the same, dropping the record to 11-13 with teams falling into this data.  Payouts were low, so it is not surprising that ATS did poorly.  Only +300 or above do you see better ATS records.

You're right, casual bettors often place bets earlier in the week or on game day, and public sentiment can heavily influence betting percentages. In this case, the line seems relatively stable at 3 or 2.5 points, and it might not move much further. Keep an eye on the data for any changes. As for a perfect graduation gift, it would depend on the individual's interests, but thoughtful options could be a good book, a personalized item, or an experience they'd enjoy.