Everyone posting is barking for the DOGS! U want the SQUARE side w/ the FAVORITE! I have it HERE 4U!

I've written up plays for this Week 1 advocating Rutgers, Liberty, Utah State and Umass. I've delved into the numbers on UAB and Tulane.

Plays on the Rice Owls all over this forum.

Yes, I know what you are feeling. 

Indigestion.

These teams are hard to stomach.

But if capping was only about betting on the dog, we'd all put Vegas out of business. We NEED to mix in some dependable favorites at favorable numbers along with our dog plays. Favorites can and do cover even at big numbers. This is obvious. 

What favorite and what number jumped out to me on this entire slate?

Michigan State -17 over Bowling Green

Here are the reasons:

Whenever a team is coming off an awful season, and better, of potentially historic proportions, we get a good number coming into Week 1. BUT ONLY WEEK 1. And then books adjust. MSU fits this mold with the season they had last year.

Why? Lines are all about public perception and the public remembers the previous season far beyond anything the team must do this year, and how they retooled in the offseason. 

This is a good thing. Example: Rutgers +30.5 over Washington. The books gave us 30.5 3 months ago and now, less than a week before kick-off that number got gobbled up and it is down to +27. At a bare minimum, it shows we got value on Rutgers and now sharp bettors are realizing Rutgers can stay within this spread.

Onto MSU. MSU had it's WORST season since 1982, after coming off two straight Top 5 finishes. That is a VERY good thing because MSU burned a TON of bankrolls. That, outside of any metrics breaking down this spread, assures us that the -17 MSU is laying here is a number that is DEPRESSED because of last year. And if you take MSU you are getting value in such a number.

MSU has the Scarlet Letter of Losing stitched across its jersey right now. It will last a week. We need to take it while we can. But first, is it favorable given the team we are playing too? 

I say yes, and there are several reasons.

So they have the opposite of the Scarlet Letter effect. Bettors got paid. And they did in in dominant fashion against Kent State 42-7 and @ Akron and Buffalo. Not wins to write home about but for a team like BG, a three game win streak against such teams is a notable success.

But there is something about those three wins that is curious. And one that will help us win this bet.

BG abandoned its passing game in favor of a ground attack in all three games. None of the three opponents was ready for this and BG's backfield (which has talent) was up to the task. They ran for 218, a whopping 420 and then 386. 

Impressive. 

But what's not impressive is this is NOT the Bowling Green identity. It certainly wasn't under Dino Babers in one of the most pass happy offenses in the nation.

But BG tried to come out with the same Babers identity in 2016 and got destroyed going 1-8. 

Then they got back to the basics against a softer back end of the schedule and it proved successful.

So what is the point?

This is a passing team that thinks it has a NOW has a run first identity given its success at the end of last season. And it's all there for MSU to exploit on tape. If BG comes out with the same vanilla run first offense against MSU, MSU has the three games last year to study as a primer. If they come out passing, they could get bombed like they did to open the season last year. A team like MSU at home in their first game off the worst season since 1982 should dominate them either way.

Why is there a high probability BG will go run first and lose big?

After Babers went to Syracuse, BG tightened the purse strings and hired a man with NO head coaching experience OR coordinating experience. Is it any wonder this team was in total disarray at 1-8? Is it any surprise, after they found success on the ground, they stayed with the exact same game plan against teams that were having underwhelming seasons themselves? 

No. And that is why I think Jinks will have nothing creative, nor exploitative against MSU. He as a new coach, will stick with what he knows. And on the road in East Lansing against a team ready for it, that is a recipe for disaster. 

Only SIX returning starters.

Also, many people here rag on Rutgers for their Michigan and OSU pummelings. 

Well guess what, Bowling Green was WORSE last year in their bludgeonings.

They lost to OSU 77-10 and MEMPHIS, yes, Memphis, 77-3. (Rutgers may lost 78-0 to a Harbaugh led Michigan team but not 77-3 at Memphis, that I can assure you.)

I'm not trying to compare these losses and point totals. What I am doing is saying Rutgers getting 30.5 at HOME to compensate for their beatings last year, is far more worthy a playable side than getting 17 AT MSU.

Again, the MSU season at 3-8 and the three game win streak feed into what I believe is a low line.

When you are proud team like MSU, and have a season like you just had, you absolutely need to open up with a statement at home to set your alumni and team right.

Yes, MSU has a lot of question marks which I didn't get into here, but are far more powerful in returning personnel, recruiting and LIGHT YEARS ahead in coaching. 

So this pick is more about what Bowling Green doesn't offer as opposed to what MSU does, which will be enough. So your sit back and take a square team play is right here, against far inadequate competition. 

Jesus your title makes you sound like a teenage girl.

Could be right side. Too much uncertainty though. 

nice write-up, thank you for your effort. 

GL w/ it..

By chance, do you recall doing a write-up like this for the Boise State @ Wyoming game last year?  

Thanks in advance..

You gave the forum a strong pick in Boise State and missed badly.  Oh gosh, that doesn't make me feel too good about your Michigan State pick. Lord help us...

BTW, SCAL, how do you have a 35-36 record???  There's only been like a half dozen games so far..

No, I'm stand up guy UNLIKE many of folks in this forum

SCAL has a history of giving bad picks to this forum.  Please be very wary of this pick, and thread lightly

they're free picks and no1 is putting a gun to your head to play em

it doesn't matter if they're free or not.  If SCAL is some phony poster who posts BS picks to manipulate others, that ain't right.  

ACCURACY is all that matters.  Don't go posting losing picks and having people follow you cuz you ain't a good person. 

SCAL has a history of posting LOSERS in this forum and he needs to be exposed

Are you some dumb fu*k wanting to look stupid.

I cap everything you moron.

You seriously think I would post 35-36 in CFB when week one hasn't even officially started.

Dumba**.

Again, what is your point with the Boise thread? It lost. Get over it. I'll bump 50 winners to push that thread off the board. What's your point. 

No wonder why've suuma goes tout. Who can put up with shi*heads like this and High and Gimmee and BettingForFun. I mean, are they not the worst the capping community has to offe?. Correction. Those fu**ers don't even cap!

Don't play it! 

I'm not making any money off it and I'm not a tout. If you don't like the write-up you are free to pick a different side. What is your point in this?

"We want this guy who posts free picks in this forum to got tout!!"

Wrote up the side for Bowling Green dumba**. That would actually be something someone CARES about.

Seriously who are you trying to scare or run off here. Grown men with their own money read the thread and bet the pick or not. It's all free. Read it. Don't read it. This isn't a business you dumb fu**. I am sharing a cap. That's it. 

If someone gives you a breadstick at Olive Garden do you throw in their face and tell them they have a history of not washing their hands??Fu**er.

Scal, I give two thumbs up on this play!

Michigan State took a beating last year. After the season it is revealed an MSU contracted sports doctor is found with child porn on his computer, then female athletes claim this doctor was feeling them up and some had reported it. Then three players are kicked off the team for sexual misconduct as is an assistant coach for how he handled the three accused players. It when on for months! The spring game had no players names on jerseys as investigation was ongoing and Dantonio didn't want the media to know who wasn't playing.

Dantonio is at his best with a chip on his shoulder and his back to the wall. That's where he is at right now.

Last year the Spartans were out scored in the 2nd half by 220-136. Forth quarter and overtime by 120-59. First time in Dantonio's 10-year history.

The word in this years camp is........FINISH!

MSU needs to make a statement, WE ARE BACK.

I expect no mercy in this game, no backdoor cover as MSU keeps the pedal to the metal.

GL

You must answer for your crimes of not hitting 100% of your plays.

There's two competing angles here:

Yours: That the coaching staff typically uses these initial games against inferior competition as more of a scrimmage and won't cover big numbers. D'Antonio at the helm, even over the course of several years, has fostered such culture.

Therefore laying a number like 17 to a fairly competent BG team is far too dangerous.

Mine: MSU is coming off their worst season since 1982. It was a culture shock to the alumni, locals and CFB world to see MSU struggle to such an extent. D'Antonio has only a few games against inferior competition in a highly completive conference. If he wants to make a statement early (i.e., that he has righted the ship off one of MSU's worst seasons ever) now is the time to do.

From there I break down Bowling Green above and explain why 17 is inadequate in terms of being backdoored.

Thank you for the contribution but I really think I have the superior argument here. It is not surprising to see MSU in seasons where they were competing for a national championship to play it close to the vest early.

This is not ordinary season. Results must come fast and furious or they'll be plastered on the front pages once again. Wins, big wins, make that a distant memory (and this is much like the Notre Dame cap over Temple where you have an inexperienced coach on one side vs. a team that must make a statement early at home, with a very similar line in both).

Uni, interesting stuff. No names on the jersey. Wow.

These games I have detailed write-ups on and the I have lines here as of date of posting. So yours will be different.

ND -14 over Temple

Liberty +30.5 over Baylor

Utah State +29 over Wisconsin

MSU -17 over Bowling Green

Rutgers +30.5 over Washington 

Umass +3 over Coastal Carolina

Of all the plays my strongest is Rutgers.

cuz there's real money on the line here and you're giving bad advice. Fading you hard on Wisconsin and Washington. They both gonna cover.  Also, taking your Michigan State pick to cover. 

Thanks so much for everything sunshine..

TAKE MSU -17 to cover vs. BGSU

I am amazed at any criticism from anyone who sits at home and demands winners from the Covers Forum...then comes in here and criticizes anything about the post.

Do you own research people, make up your own mind and take your "real money" and invest it wisely!   And yes....."real money" should not be put squarely on Gambling.

Good luck this week Scal.  I like many of your write-ups and games. - Sharp.....