Posted:
#1
When you look at this game, you quickly see that these team's are very similar. the number one defense in the Pac 12 is playing the number 2 defense in the Pac 12. Washington has an extremely talented WR corps, and the Pac 12 offensive player of the year at QB... However they will face their toughest match up of the season when they face a Colorado team that has very talented DB's, which allows their coordinator to send pressure, or stack the box. Colorado has blitzed more than any other team in the Pac 12, but Browning is completing 63% of his passes when blitzed.
Colorado's defense has been able to create turnovers all season, and turned Utah over 4 times a week ago. There's no doubt that whoever wins the turnover margin will have a good chance of winning this game. Unfortunately for Colorado, Washington has a QB who is very good at recognizing defenses, and as a result,not turn the ball over. I think it's important to remember that neither Utah, or Washington State had trouble moving the ball against Colorado, Utah had the ball inside the 10 yard line 4 times, and came away with two FG's. Both teams are ending the season with impressive back to back wins, but Colorado was also at home vs Utah and Washington State, this game will be played on a neutral field.
I have a ton of respect for Colorado's secondary, but Washington has a very balanced offense, I think it will be Washington;s ability to run the football with Gaskins and Coleman that will lead to big plays down field. Washington will be getting back a serious offensive weapon in Chico McCallister, this means that Colorado will have to deal with two Wr's that run 4.2-4.3 40's... I expect all of that speed will lead to some big plays, as well as a soft cushion for Browning to throw the underneath routes.
Ultimately I think the reason Washington will win, is because of Washington;s massive run stuffing defensive line. Colorado only average 2.8 yards a carry vs Utah at home last week, so I do not expect Lindsay to be able to run like he has throughout the season. If Colorado doesnt get turnover's they arent a team that's going to score a ton of points. I think Washington defense is built perfectly to stop the Colorado offense. Colorado was held to 10 points vs Stanford, 20 points vs UCLA, and 17 vs USC, even Utah held them to 27, which isint bad considering they had 4 turnovers, and Colorado was at home.
My biggest concern with Washington is that they're playing for a chance to get in the college football playoffs. This could be viewed as a positive, or extra motivation, but motivation usually isint an issue in a championship game. I look at Washington playing for a playoff spot as a lot of pressure. Pressure that Colorado doesnt have, nobody expected Colorado to have this kind of season, so they can play more relaxed if that makes sense. They have a very experienced Senior QB who has started over 40 college games. That experience should help his recognize some of Washington;s more exotic coverages. If Colorado win;s it will be because Liufau shows more poise than Browning. If Colorado's blitz gets to Browning and he starts to second guess himself, Colorado's defense could rattle the young Washington team and get some of the turnovers they will need.
It's worth noting Washington has lost three defensive starters in the last month, including their leading tackler.
I am buying the pt and going backing Washington -6.5...
Also Considering teasing WMU -9.5 and Wash pk
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