CFB YTD 6-9 -4.05 units
all plays 1* so far
I always make my Game of the Year on one of the lesser bowls as I believe there are always a couple of huge opportunities with coaching changes, the portal, motivation, etc., being extreme factors. My tack record on these has been very good including UTSA's 44-15 win last year and South Florida's 45-0 win two years ago.
I am posting this play now as I believe further line movement toward Arkansas State is likely.
December 18:
4* College Football Game of Year Arkansas State PK (-115)
1) Ark State's HC Butch Jones has a winning bowl record covering schools at various levels (here, Tennessee, Cincinnati, Central Michigan). His bowl record as a HC is 7-1 and the only loss was by two points.
2) Disastrous timing for Missouri State whose coach just quit to make a rather lateral move to Coastal Carolina. There's a search underway for a new coach and assistants who are no doubt job shopping are preparing the team for the bowl. Players have to be thinking about hitting the portal.
3) Both teams have good running games but Ark State spreads it out more and the QB is a true dual threat.
4)Ark State, in my opinion, had a far tougher schedule in the Sun Belt than Missouri state did in weak Conf USA.
5) Ark State ended the season 5-2 and is battle tested as several wins were close.
6) While Ark State played Iowa State tough in non conference, Missouri State gave up 73 to USC. They ended the season with consecutive losses and the defense is porous.
7) Ark State has total coaching stability with Jones while Missouri State is in chaos with the HC gone, the assistants job hunting (or begging to join the HC at Coastal) and players wondering about the future with a new coach who will try to harvest the portal.
8) Sharp line movement toward Ark State which is telling in a low profile game.
I am posting the following plays now to lock in the lines. I'll write them up later:
Dec 24:
3* Hawaii +2 1/2
Dec 31:
1* Texas -7
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