SBR PICKS/ ANALYSIS
Oklahoma vs. Iowa State
The Sooners were brought back down to earth last weekend.
And, while there's every chance Landry Jones and Oklahoma will bounce right back up and trounce Iowa State, I'm thinking this game may end up being closer than many people may think.
The Cyclones are far from walkovers. They've beaten TCU on the road and Baylor at home, and also hung around with both Kansas State (27-21) and Texas Tech (24-13) at home. Holding the Bears offense to 21 points is no easy feat, so Iowa State could be able to stifle the Sooners somewhat on Saturday.
This spread has been rising all week. The Sooners opened as 10.5-point favorites, but now they're favored by 12, and I think that's too many points. Roll with Iowa State as a sizable dog as Steele Jantz looks to match Jones in a senior quarterback battle.
Pick: Iowa State Cyclones +12
Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State
Bill Snyder has done just an absolutely phenomenal job since re-taking over the head coaching job in Manhattan. His Wildcats are still unbeaten on the season.
That unblemished record should stay intact this weekend as I'm adding a Kansas State win and cover against Oklahoma State to my NCAAF picks this weekend. As of now the Wildcats are favored by 8.5 points at most of the top sportsbooks.
How can you bet against Collin Klein? He has 12 touchdown passes (only two picks) but has done most of his damage in the trenches. He already has 634 rushing yards and 16 touchdown runs through eight games.
Basically, the Wildcats have been one of the most balanced teams in the country (#5 in scoring at 44.4 PPG and #13 in scoring defense at 17.1 PPG allowed), so I'm not about to fade them here. Back Kansas State.
Pick: Kansas State Wildcats -8.5
ATS Pick
Simply put: this value is too good to pass up on the Trojans at home, no matter who they're playing. This is still one of the most talented college football teams in the country, but faulty expectation has failed them at times.
This is clearly USC's biggest game of the season and I expect their effort on both sides of the ball to reflect that do-or-die type of attitude.
Oregon's been solid defensively, but they haven't had to face an offense as explosive as the one the Trojans possess. I think the hosts will be able to move the ball pretty well en-route to a cover at home.
Enjoy this game everybody. It's going to be amazing.
USC Trojans +8.5
Wilbert will need to continue his strong play
Owls quarterback Graham Wilbert completed 26-of-40 passes for 261 yards and four touchdowns against the Trojans last week, as he continues to move up on the school’s all-time list in numerous categories. He was named Sun Belt Conference Offensive Player of the Week for that effort, surpassing the 250-yard passing mark for the fourth time during the 2012 campaign.
Runneth over
The Midshipmen have won all five previous games against members of the Sun Belt Conference, while their three losses this season have come at the hands of opponents that are a combined 19-5 on the year. Navy should have no problem scoring at least 35 points in this affair, which spells trouble for Saturday’s visitor. Florida Atlantic has failed to cover the spread in its last eight games when surrendering 35-plus points when playing off a victory.
Look for things to turn ugly in the second half
Live bettors will want to keep an eye on the halftime score at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium as the Midshipmen have outscored their last six opponents by a significant 112-50 margin in the second half. The Owls have also failed to cover seven of their last eight games in the month of November.
Prediction
I’m going to recommend that readers back the Midshipmen at the current number represented on the college football odds page, as they’ve gone 32-19-5 ATS in their last 56 games during this calendar month.
College Football Week 10 Pick: Navy Midshipmen -16
McCarron has turned into a star
AJ McCarron has tossed 18 touchdowns in the first eight games this season, which shattered Alabama’s previous school record of 14 in that situation. Alabama’s signal-caller will enter Tiger Stadium with an active streak of 262 passing attempts without an interception, which is the second longest in SEC history. LSU’s defense will not be able to key on the running game due to his success, which makes this offense incredibly dangerous.
Opening 30 minutes will tell the story
The Tigers have allowed just 2.9 first quarter points and 7.4 first half points on average in 48 games under defensive coordinator John Chavis, which is an important statistic to consider when making your college football predictions in this contest. On the other sideline, the Crimson Tide have outscored opponents by a sizable 208-31 margin in the opening 30 minutes through eight games. McCarron has led the squad to 20 or more points in every first half this season.
Prediction
I’m going to recommend that readers play the OVER in this high-profile contest, especially with the weather forecast calling for game-time temperatures in the mid-60s at kickoff. LSU is a very confident team when playing inside this venue, which will allow the team to gain more than the 331 combined yards it finished with against Alabama in both meetings last year.
College Football Week 10 Pick: Over 42
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