BOWL Betting Strategy / Notes / Game Analysis...

yeah ... but BYU doesnt have a reliable kicker , and the qb situation is a mess ... bu yeah the experience counts...i like the under a lot more....both teams run run run run and BYUhave a strong running D

Great info.. Good Luck this bowl season my friend

Guilty conscience?
What makes you think you are the idiot I was referring to?
Please I was giving the man props, No need for you to hijack his thread, I know you are an attention female but leave this thread as I will, just for info.

I'll do game analysis here...usually a day or two before maybe...late today or tomorrow I'll post a plays/leans.... for all games

*personally I think this bowl season looks like a good time to play DOGS....which annually win about 12 bowls outright!
most of these games....IMO... could go either way

  $$$ remember to not be afraid to play dogs on the ML....especially in these early games 


THURSDAY , DEC 20

8:00 PM                      Line             Betting Trend
Teams                Open  Current   Spread    Money  O/U   
205 BYU     (7-5)   -2.5    -3            58%    66%     39%
206 SDSU   (9-3)   52.0    48          42%    34%      61%

VALUE-  home game for SDSU...line should be close to pick

SOS/conf.strength/ weather/injuries -   BYU played tougher schedule...BYU QB Nelson shouldn't start...b/u Lark should start...Nelson available...  power back Kazee OUT for SDSU...

Trends-  game-Dog 4-1 ATS
         BYU - Bronco 5-2 SU /5-2 ATS in bowls...UNDER   is 10-4
         SDSU- 9-0 OVER at home vs good teams...1-4 SU / 2-2-1 bowl...Rocky 2-4/2-4 bowls
  *BYU 27-7 SU vs SDSU (9-1...5-0 lately)


MOTIVATION- SDSU with edge....BYU has dominated them...then left MTW..Aztecs will be super fired up at home here....but BYU always gives solid effort...30 players are married...these are grown-azz men  

MATCH-UP-  looking at common opponents (Boise...SJSU...Hawaii)...teams are similar
  note > BYU lost at Boise ...with RB Alisa and QB Hill...(hurt now)...SDSU won...with current b/u QB Dingwell making 1st start...  SDSU with a ST edge....and slight TO edge...

conclusion/play-  BYU QB with significant minutes vs New Mex St....Idaho....and Weber St....Nelson hasn't been able to practice much at all and struggled when healthy....  SDSU QB Dingwell more battle tested (62%..8.9/att)....played/won at > Boise / Nevada / Wyoming
  note > BYU has only beaten ONE team with a winning record...is 0-4 ATS as a small fav (lost 3 SU)
 
looks like a toss-up to me...game should be low scoring

$ - small play UNDER 48...small play SDSU +3...SDSU +150 worth a shot for sure  

problem?...series/bowl history says OVER..the OVER has hit 15/19 games when the MTW team is a dog

BOL boys.........



 

well i feel more confident on my under play

15/19 its not that much of a disparity....and trends are like records---- are due to be broken

Thanks Bookie, Nice work 

If Nelson is not starting, BYU might have a chance.

FRIDAY , DEC 21
 
7:30 PM                   Line                   Betting Trend
Teams                Open Current    Spread    Money    O/U
 Ball State   (9-3)  60.0    61.5          64%    82%    88%
 UCF           (9-4)    -7         -7          36%    18%    12%

VALUE- none....line is about right

travel/SOS/weather/injuries -  
  *UCF 93 miles away / BSU 875
  *BSU actually played tougher schedule....*(MAC tougher than CUSA)
  *BSU QB Wenning with (slightly) fractured ankle 5-6 weeks ago....but somehow should be ready....b/u Page should be fine here if needed
  *inside dome

Trends-
 *game- fav is 3-1/3-1
  BSU - 1st bowl for HC Lembo.....1st bowl since '08 (6th all time)...never won bowl...24-10 ATS in away games
  UCF - HC O'Leary 1-3/1-3 in bowls...dogs 3-1 ATS in their bowls...24-16 ATS as a fav...OVER is 9-1 ATS when UCF is favored
     *conf- MAC is 0-6 ATS vs CUSA     

MOTIVATION-
  *BSU with big edge...1st bowl in a while....UCF with last game tough loss to Tulsa...costing them a Liberty Bowl..appealed probation earlier...thinking a possible BCS buster year...
now facing a MAC team in a domed toilet...  

MATCH-UP
  *Ball St with strong O...but no D at all....but battle tested  @ Clemson (lost 52-27)...@ Indiana (won 41-39)...beat USF 31-27...and pushed N Illinois and Kent St around pretty good (563 TO vs NIU..557 vs Kent St)...lost to NIU by 12 as QB Lynch ran wild 2H....and on last sec FG to KSU....key here is the BSU OL...ranking #1 nation is TFL allowed....UCF #60 in TFL / #73 sacks...UCF D is tough but gave up 1500 yards last 3 games ....Looks like neither team will be able to stop the other......BSU actually with the better ST too

recommendation-
  *these teams combined to go 17-8 OVER TY.....and a highly motivated BSU should be able to trade points most of the way....

$$ solid play on the OVER 61...small play on Ball St +7...Ball St ML at +245 worth a small shot    

problem?
  *slight chance BSU QB can't go....if for some reason UCF shows up they (could) dominate....as they are no doubt the more talented team

BOL............


 

MUCHAS GRACIAS FOR ALL 0F THE UNPRECEDENTED, INFORMATIVE, DETAILED , BOWL STATS.....NO NEED TO GO ANYWHERE ELSE!...THE ENCYCLOPEDIA OF BOWL KNOWLEDGE IS HERE AT OUR FINGERTIPS!....MY BEST WISHES!....AND HAVE A GREAT BOWL SEASON!

Lets get us some Aztec

this garbage is just crazy!!!!! 

oopsss i meant this shittt lol thanks for the info sir! 

BookieAssassin - Thank you very much!!  You saved all of us on this thread a ton of time, and probably thought of more stuff than most of us would have on our own.  Again, thanks very much!!

Great work, much appreciated

WOW thats what i been looking for!!!! great info BOOKIEASSAIN i have been posting since thanksgiving to get the ATS Dawgs vs Favs N no one has responded back to me but this is way more info then i was ever able to be thinking about! Your the man My Dude!

 

funny watching the game last nite thinkin'.....damm SDSU clearly the better team.....getting points at HOME !
What a good bet!...wish I woulda bet more !.......

*NEVER.....count your money ....while still sitting at the table...........................

*funny as hell so many (every damm one of my buddies too) are ready to call a game over in the 1st quarter....
"congrats Aztec backers...........................

here's a list of teams I like at this point....
  *for all bowls....posted leans for each bowl whether I like 'em or not......(many)....
  *subject to change....I'll post a write-up of each the week of



ONE UNIT PLAYS

Utah St
Ball St
Washington
Duke
UCLA
Fresno
WV / Cuse OVER
TCU / Mich St UNDER
USC / GT OVER
NW
Ole Miss
Kent St
N Dame
A&M / OU OVER
Kan St

smaller

Ariz / Nev OVER
SDSU / BYU UNDER + SDSU
Ball St / UCF OVER
TCU
Vandy
LSU
Mich / SC OVER
OU
Cinn / Duke OVER


leans

Arizona
CMich
Ohio
MInn
Navy
Cuse
USC
BGreen
Rutgers
Rice
Oreg St
Tulsa
Okie St
S Caro
Neb
Wisc
N Illinois
Louisville

 game discussion always welcome........

* just don't say.....DUDE.....Oregon is gonna murder Kan St !.....say how / why.....then I'll tell you why they (probably) won't..............

best NCAA capping read on the internet ! thanks buddy

I think it's very interesting that EVERYONE is on
Ball St., when UCF has a stat edge in this match up.

Thanks a million this is by far the best post ever

thanks for sticking your neck out there.  lots of agreement from me.  couple questions.

Good stuff!

SKIPSTER......
  *well you asked........ >>> I gotta get a life someday...whatever TF that is.......

in your earlier thread you said you were down small on arky st.  Reason for change?

  *ASU/MALZAHN......was.... a machine and way too much for the Flashes....now...Malzahn is GONE...while KSU HC Hazell is STAYING WITH HIS TEAM FOR THE BOWL......what a concept....so for me KSU now a strong play...ML too definitely worth a shot....recall Ark St HC has hauled azz the last 2 years....players gotta be tired of it

Also agree that TCU/MSU should be low scoring but I gravitated towards sparty thinking their slightly more
experience team might pull it out.

  *might be right...but thinking here is Sparty (had high hopes) not really too excited about being here...last 4 bowls faced Georgia twice....Bama and Texas Tech  (lost by 10)....now facing (in their minds) a stinkin' MTW team in the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl?.....
Frogs with a very young team....with a ton of adversity (self-inflicted yes)....but super fired up to be facing a top B10 team here......any doubt Patterson has them ready????
  *recall Frog fr QB Boykin was working at RB....before called at last minute to start...so they basically played most of the year with their 4th string RB (Tucker hurt all year) and a RB at QB....having lost key players to the drug thing....and their  best player ( DE Maponga) was hurt all year...now RB Tucker (6-1/230..4.45...NFL quality) is healthier....and have recently moved LB Jordan Moore (6-3/210 sprinter) to RB to help in spots....and Frog D can't tackle him..........

Match-up wise...both offenses should struggle yes...but Frog O....might be able to move it some anyway....Boykin a much better runner....and a better passer than Maxwell...(Boykin 59%...15/9...130 PR  vs Maxwell 53%...13/9...109 PR).....Frogs have great speed at WR.....

Sparty running game was hit and miss for sure..ran well only vs Minny...EMich and Neb.....effectively vs Boise and CMich.....but shut out mostly vs rest....like Indiana for one......I don't think they move it at all vs TCU.......

note: keep in mind the offenses TCU faced....vs what Sparty has been seeing.....especially note the caliber of QB's......I see what ......ONE and a half maybe?.......

Boise St.
@ Central Mich.
Notre Dame
Eastern Mich.
Ohio St.
@ Indiana
Iowa
@ 19 Michigan
@ Wisconsin
23 Nebraska
21 Northwestern
@ Minnesota

*Mich St D faced......the #37 ranked schedule of offenses .... #98 ranked passing attacks.......


While TCU D......#4 toughest offenses / #2 passing...1st few lame yes

Grambling
@ Kansas
Virginia
@ Southern Methodist
Iowa St.
@ Baylor
Texas Tech
@ Oklahoma St.
@ West Virginia
Kansas St.
@ Texas
Oklahoma

*Patterson DESPERATELY needs a win here as a springboard for next year...when it appears they can compete to win the Big 12....Texas sucks yes...but Frogs did go to Austin and win Thanksgiving nite and spank a Horn team with MO...really needing a win....
But you're right....wagering hard earned cash vs a tough / underrated Sparty team maybe a dicey proposition..........


Hard to like CMU and Ohio.  Wonder about mindset at Rutgers after blowing Orange Bowl and landing in Tidy Bowl vs. 6-6 ACC team

  *wouldn't touch either....(gun to the head) leans....
I would go with the dog in a bowl neither cares about..................but
Ohio ...really beat up in trenches.....who didn't expect to be in a bowl really....is kinda dangerous here after a great start...and terrible finish....they could play their azz off vs bowl VIRGIN ULM...or never get off the bus   *(in-game or half-time wager the way to go)
  *I would have to dig into the reason for the mid season slide.....injuries I assume

I think Rutgers will be fired up to be facing the Hokies...Hokies not so much vs Rutgers maybe.....?
I do like the Rutgers D vs Hokie O....especially with lay-off factors..... VT last game 11/24....RU 11/29

BOL and Merry Christmas Skipster...............

Kind words much appreciated boys....

Happy Holidays......all the best..............