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Skipster

Captain

Joined: Nov, 2007

Posts: 6422

Posted: Dec. 24, 2012 - 12:47 AM ET #101

I know this thread is about x's and o's and I am your loyal reader for several seasons now. I offer little value to this discussion usually. That said, I've been involved in a very complicated pool the last 15 years and the bowls and the pro playoffs are the culmination of the season. Our pool is made up of smart guys for the most part. Doctors and professionals. But we're the definition of the casual bettor. Often it's crack open the newspaper, check Alabama or New England regardless of the spread and pray. We can choose 20/28 bowls. Historically, teams that gather unanimous or near-unanimous support among the players rarely cover--and often lose straight up. Here are this year's teams in the danger zone, for what it's worth to you. I'd think long and hard before dropping much real money on:

CMU, SJSU, UCLA, Rutgers, Vandy, LSU, UGA, S Car or FSU.

WISEGUY36

Legend

Joined: Jul, 2012

Posts: 34171

Posted: Dec. 24, 2012 - 12:53 AM ET #102

Skipster, Merry Christmas

Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.

Skipster

Captain

Joined: Nov, 2007

Posts: 6422

Posted: Dec. 24, 2012 - 12:57 AM ET #103

Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:

Skipster, Merry Christmas

Maholo, brother.

bookieassassin

All-Star

Joined: Jun, 2007

Posts: 10310

Posted: Dec. 24, 2012 - 11:22 AM ET #104

8:00 PM      Line                    Betting Trend
Open Current Spread    Money O/U
SMU   (6-6)    62.0   59.5       30%    84%    81%
Fresno (9-3)        -11.5 -12.5          70%    16%    19%

--------------------------------------------------------------------

VALUE
*none...line is about right

Travel/SOS/weather/injuries
*Fresno 2517 miles away..SMU 3794
     JJones returning home so SMU should have a slight crowd edge
*SMU slightly tougher SOS (82 > 84)
*MOSTLY SUNNY...EWIND 3-8mph...77 deg
*SMU - no inj
   Fresno - st C Bramer susp....

Trends
*game - OVER is 7-3 / dogs are 6-1 / CUSA 5-3/6-1
*SMU - JJ 6-3/5-4 ATS in bowls / 2-7 ATS run away / dogs are 5-0 / 5-0 in SMU bowls
*Fresno - 0-3/0-3 bowl run....11-1 ATS this year
*conf - CUSA is 11-4 ATS as 7+dog....MTW is 5-1/5-1 vs CUSA...MTW is 5-0 ATS as a DD fav

MOTIVATION
*slight edge to Fresno...with a 1st year HC and a program on the rise...esp after missing out on a bowl LY
    SMU HC Jones has been trying to leave for 2 years....he tried to leave for Maryland in 2010...and was going to Ariz St last year until the offer was withdrawn (and then lied about it).... his players know this

MATCH-UP
*SMU is a passing team that can't throw....(QB Gilbert lowest rated passer in CUSA and #111 in nation)...
Fresno's strength is pass D....allow 51.7% (#2 nation)...5.6/att (#5)..passer rating #6....plus #16 in sacks and #20 in TFL....Fresno solid vs run and should be able to hold Ponies / RB Line in check (SMU couldn't run vs RICE...SFA....UTEP...or MEMPHIS)
Bulldogs allowed only 3.8/rush to Nevada...3.7 to AF...2.9 to Tulsa....note Fresno has 9 TD from D or ST (6 pick 6's)

SMU brings in CUSA's 5th rated D ...not bad vs the run...ranked high in pass D (Steele has them #20)..but overrated maybe as the give up 271 yds/g (#106) and of their 19 INT....13 were in 2 games (Houston and SFA)
Fresno's O weakness is their OL...but Ponies don't bring heat (rank near bottom of CUSA in sacks and TFL)...problem for SMU will be stopping Fresno NFL caliber QB Carr (nation's #6 passer) 68%...8.2/att.....312/g...36 TD / 5 INT....and RB Rouse (#13 ....1468 yds / 5.5/rush)....Receivers are tall/athletic (TE 6-6/260....WR 6-6....6-2....6-0....5-9)
   note > Fresno struggled at times running the ball....and could be slowed here (shut down at Boise...couldn't run vs AF or Hawaii)

Recommendation
*Ponies 'success'...in bowls misleading...their signature win over Nevada?..'Pack a bad bowl team / coach anyway...and had suspended not one but two thousand yard rushers...and were obviously not into it...
then LY vs Pitt...who had just lost their coach for the 2nd st year (devastated)...and were returning to the same
bowl....in 2010 lost to ARMY at HOME........

Anytime you have a DD spread in an EARLY pre-Xmas bowl....you look to the dog 1st...in this case it's tough to make a case....HC Jones figures to have a plan so they (may) be able to compete...but I look for them to get their azz kicked..........

$$ Solid play on Fresno....Total looks right to me...slight lean OVER

Problems?
SMU QB Gilbert came in late....missing spring work.....and never got into rhythm....with the additional practice time and RB Line getting healthier....SMU O could be much better....
For OVER players....SMU.... MUST run the ball and keep Fresno O off the field...if they can do this..it might be a lower scoring game

BOL boys and Merry Christmas..............

It is better to be feared - than to be loved.

WISEGUY36

Legend

Joined: Jul, 2012

Posts: 34171

Posted: Dec. 24, 2012 - 11:37 AM ET #105

Looks like we're on the same side on this one

Let's get em

Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.

bookieassassin

All-Star

Joined: Jun, 2007

Posts: 10310

Posted: Dec. 24, 2012 - 11:42 AM ET #106

Quote Originally Posted by Skipster:

I know this thread is about x's and o's and I am your loyal reader for several seasons now. I offer little value to this discussion usually. That said, I've been involved in a very complicated pool the last 15 years and the bowls and the pro playoffs are the culmination of the season. Our pool is made up of smart guys for the most part. Doctors and professionals. But we're the definition of the casual bettor. Often it's crack open the newspaper, check Alabama or New England regardless of the spread and pray. We can choose 20/28 bowls. Historically, teams that gather unanimous or near-unanimous support among the players rarely cover--and often lose straight up. Here are this year's teams in the danger zone, for what it's worth to you. I'd think long and hard before dropping much real money on:

CMU, SJSU, UCLA, Rutgers, Vandy, LSU, UGA, S Car or FSU.

yeah except for CMich....all 'public' favorites...UCLA and SJSU to a lesser degree

LSU        96%
S Caro    93
Vandy      91
Georgia   83
FSU         74
Rutgers    72
UCLA        61
SJSU       63
UCLA       61
CMU         40

others...
Fla        91
Oreg St 91 (surprising)
WV         85
Okie St    83
Oregon     78
Kent         78
Ole Miss    77
Tree           70

It is better to be feared - than to be loved.

isgamblingtuff

Prospect

Joined: Apr, 2012

Posts: 197

Posted: Dec. 24, 2012 - 11:50 AM ET #107

Skipster

Captain

Joined: Nov, 2007

Posts: 6422

Posted: Dec. 24, 2012 - 5:03 PM ET #108

Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:

yeah except for CMich....all 'public' favorites...UCLA and SJSU to a lesser degree

LSU        96%
S Caro    93
Vandy      91
Georgia   83
FSU         74
Rutgers    72
UCLA        61
SJSU       63
UCLA       61
CMU         40

others...
Fla        91
Oreg St 91 (surprising)
WV         85
Okie St    83
Oregon     78
Kent         78
Ole Miss    77
Tree           70

Last numbers came in on pool. CMU, Rutgers, Vandy off list (though ominous-looking signs).

Leaving SJSU, UCLA, three SEC teams and FSU. Interesting.

SJSU 7/8 players on one side

UCLA 7/8

FSU 7/8

SCary 7/7

UGA 7/7

LSU 7/7

The final 3 were games that were skipped by a player (you can NO PLAY 8 games). Thus, it's unanimous. Usually a bad sign.

Maybe this year the streak is broken and all these picks cash. It'd be the first time in 15 years if this card of 6 games had a positive outcome.

MGD

Veteran

Joined: Aug, 2010

Posts: 1529

Posted: Dec. 24, 2012 - 5:25 PM ET #109

Nice write up on tonight's game B.A.!! Very objective as to arive at a conclusion not just presenting facts to support a preconceived pick. I am siding with Fresno St and your info cemented that for me. One additional point I like is that Carr and a decent chunk of this team played in Hawaii just last November, SMU hasn't played in Hawaii since 2009 so good chance most of their players won't be ready to deal with this type of travel.

RLeith35

Legend

Joined: Jan, 2012

Posts: 59231

Posted: Dec. 25, 2012 - 1:39 PM ET #110

Bookieassasin, would u happen to have a list of all bowl teams who lost their Conf Champ game? A list of all 1st year coaches? A list of 1st time bowl teams? A list of all teams that won their Conf Champ game? These 4 lists would be greatly appreciated!

bookieassassin

All-Star

Joined: Jun, 2007

Posts: 10310

Posted: Dec. 26, 2012 - 4:04 PM ET #111

So far....
*fav are 6-1 SU / 4-3 ATS
*UNDER is 4-3 ATS
MAC teams are 0-2 / 0-2
SB teams are 1-0 / 1-0

Not so great for me so far. ...giving you one play on the side or total....and then a small play/lean on remaining side or total
primary plays are 5-2......secondary a blazing 1-6...one-unit plays 2-2
OVER / Zona
Utah St / UNDER
UNDER / SDSU
OVER / Ball St
OVER / EC
Wash / UNDER
Fresno / OVER

-----------------------------------------------------------------

7:30 PM E             Line                  Betting Trend
                       Open Current    Spread   Money   O/U
C Mich (6-6)      57.0   57.5    25%   52%   74%
WKU    (7-5)      -6   -6                   75%   48%   26%

VALUE- slight edge to WKU maybe....note 75% on WKU but line hasn't moved
*CM easily the worst bowl team

Travel/SOS/weather/injuries
*CM 124 miles away...WKU 411
*CM #118...WKU #98 or so
*dome
*CM - top WR Davis (1st tm All-MAC)...and 3rd WR Williams are OUT
*WKU - lost top player in nations sack leader Quanterus Smith on 11/22...none lately

Trends
*MAC has lost the last 5 (1-4 ATS)...dogs are 5-3-1 ATS
*WKU - 1st bowl EVER...17-2 ATS away..21-7 overall..one point covered 15 straight games! (record?)
*CM - HC 1st bowl...2-4 SU / 2-2-1 ATS in bowls...8-24 ATS run....OVER is 15-5-1
     teams combined were 14-7-1 OVER
*conf
    MAC - 5-20 ATS when a dog...after Xmas 4-13 SU / 2-14 ATS
    SB - if total 55+...9-2 OVER....1-3 ATS as a fav

MOTIVATION
*key here is WKU HC left for USF...so slight edge to CM...playing close to home....WKU snubbed for bowl LY despite 7-5...so should be fired up here

MATCH-UP
*WKU with the more dynamic players and much better D....looks like they should be able to run and pass vs CM..
CM with a solid Sr QB + pretty good / exp OL + 1400 yd rusher in the great ZURLON Tipton...should score enough to keep them in this one...as WKU D (very tough early) faded late in the year....not giving up a lot of yards but vulnerable to the BIG PLAY

Recommendation
*1st look here would be to CM...playing close to home to a team that lost it's HC....playing in it's 1st ever bowl
   Problem?...they're just not very good (strong finish but vs some of nation's worst teams)....so a side here tough to pick
WKU RB Antonio Andrews is gunning here to beat Barry Sanders record for all-purpose yards (season).....as he needs 273... he has said this publicly.....as has his coach (interim Guidry)....so I look for a high scoring game (inside)

$ small play OVER...slight lean to WKU

Problems?
* WKU shows up big....CM could have tough time moving the ball.........BOL boys...............

It is better to be feared - than to be loved.

bookieassassin

All-Star

Joined: Jun, 2007

Posts: 10310

Posted: Dec. 26, 2012 - 8:56 PM ET #112

Quote Originally Posted by RLeith35:

Bookieassasin, would u happen to have a list of all bowl teams who lost their Conf Champ game? A list of all 1st year coaches? A list of 1st time bowl teams? A list of all teams that won their Conf Champ game? These 4 lists would be greatly appreciated!

conference winners/losers here......

https://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/scoreboard/scores.cfm/week/14/season/2012

1st bowls for .....ULM....WKU
*few bowls/1st bowl in awhile...Kent St ('71)....ULL (last year first one)....Duke ('94)

1st yr HC
UCLA....A&M....Rutgers...Pitt...Fresno...Zona....Ariz St
Ark St (gone)

*interim bowl coaches at 1st part of this thread....

It is better to be feared - than to be loved.

FlashThatUUU

Veteran

Joined: Oct, 2012

Posts: 2348

Posted: Dec. 27, 2012 - 12:11 AM ET #113

Don't be afraid to bet a double digit dog outright... Well that theory came thru with Smu the other Day. Good stuff man. BOL to ya.

Flex3

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2012

Posts: 21

Posted: Dec. 27, 2012 - 1:16 AM ET #114

Well done.

junesports1

Prospect

Joined: Aug, 2012

Posts: 413

Posted: Dec. 27, 2012 - 6:18 AM ET #115

middleman820

Veteran

Joined: Jan, 2009

Posts: 1013

Posted: Dec. 27, 2012 - 7:56 AM ET #116

SPECIAL NOTE ! ALZAREZ 8-3 in BOWL GAMES

3 - 0 IN ROSE BOWL /

Bielema 0-2

Whisky will have more in stands than Stanford!!!

GOOD STUFF BOOKIE !! GL

bookieassassin

All-Star

Joined: Jun, 2007

Posts: 10310

Posted: Dec. 27, 2012 - 2:30 PM ET #117

3:00 PM

                                 Line       Betting Trend
                          Open Current Spread   Money    O/U
B Green (8-4)    49.5    44           28%    51%    65%
SJSU (10-2)   -7.5   -7.5          72%    49%    35%

VALUE
*with travel factored in...slight edge with BGreen...line maybe should be 4-5 or so

Travel/SOS/weather/injuries
*BG 390 miles...SJSU 2419
*SJSU much tougher (#79 > #121)
* MOSTLY SUNNY...NW WIND 15-25, GUSTY, 40 deg
*SJSU - st DT Larceval OUT (43 tack / 6' sacks)

Trends
*game - fav and OVER is 4-0 / 3-1 ATS
*BG - 1st bowl in 2 yrs...0-2/0-2 last 2 bowls
        1-10 ATS UNDER this year...8-16 ATS vs good teams (60%+)
*SJSU- 1st bowl since '06
         10-2 ATS this year...18-6 run
*conf- in WAC games....when total is < 48...UNDER is 11-4
         MAC - as dog > 6-22 SU / 8-19-1 ATS....after Xmas 2-15 ATS


MOTIVATION
*slight edge to BG....as SJSU HC MacIntyre left for Colorado..interim coach is DC Kent Baer ...who is likely to leave for Col too
   players and coaches don't know and have admitted it is a distraction
     note > Baer coached NDame in '04 Insight Bowl on an interim basis

MATCH-UP
*BGreen with a tough D and should be able to shut down SJSU running game....and combined with cold/wind should be able to slow SJSU QB Fales just enough to stay close
   SJSU allowed a lotta points/yards in spots...but should be able to slow a fairly weak BG offense

Recommendation
   *SJSU the stronger team no doubt with the better QB...but with the coaching situation along with weather and travel...we'll take the generous points in a low scoring game

$$ solid play BG +7...strong lean UNDER

Problems?
*A motivated Spartan team...that adapts better than expected to windy /cold conditions...if they get out to an early lead could be tough for BGreen O to catch up

It is better to be feared - than to be loved.

3:00 PM

bookieassassin

All-Star

Joined: Jun, 2007

Posts: 10310

Posted: Dec. 27, 2012 - 5:44 PM ET #118

6:30 PM            Line    Betting Trend
Open    Current Spread    Money    O/U
Cinn (9-3) -11    -9.5 67%    37%    75%
Duke (6-6)   56.5 60.5        33%    63%    25%

VALUE-
*none...line about right

Travel/SOS/weather/injuries
*Cinn 336 miles....Duke 122
*Duke much tougher SOS
* MOSTLY FAIR..NW WIND 8-13mph..43 deg
*no key inj

Trends
*last 11 bowls...O/U has alternated each year....UNDER is due
    NCaro teams are 5-1 ATS

MOTIVATION
*big edge to Duke..1st bowl since '95...last bowl win 1961
   Cinn HC Jones left for Tenn...leaving only 5 coaches behind here (both OC/DC gone too)
   DL coach Stripling will be interim
   Duke HC Cutcliffe meanwhile turned down offers to leave and was ACC COY

MATCH-UP
*Duke all O and little D...so will have a difficult time stopping Cinn...
    Cinn D faced mostly weak O's and likewise should have a tough time with Duke QB Renfree and ACC all time leading receiver Conner Vernon

Recommendation
* Duke faded big time late in the year vs quality opponents...but now rested / healthier and should be able to stay close or win this one...

$$ Duke a solid play at +9'...total about right....slightest lean to UNDER....Duke ML at +275 not bad

Problems?
* Cinn comes out running the ball (recall HC the former DL coach)...keeping Duke O off the field...might make it tough for Duke to stay in it

It is better to be feared - than to be loved.

bookieassassin

All-Star

Joined: Jun, 2007

Posts: 10310

Posted: Dec. 27, 2012 - 6:03 PM ET #119

running outta time here.....

9:45p
                              LINE                   BETTING TRENDS
   Open    Current    Spread    Money    O/U
Baylor     (7-5)     -1    82    39%    67%    54%
UCLA    (9-4)    74.0 -3              61%    33%    46%

VALUE-
*slight with Bears maybe...

Travel/SOS/weather/injuries
*BU 1173 miles....UCLA 112
*BU with tougher SOS (#3 > #32)
*PARTLY CLOUDY..NW WIND 6-11 mph..57 deg

Recommendation
* I'll take the better defensive team with the crowd edge....expecting the Baylor D (came on strong late) to revert back to it's old self

$$ solid play on UCLA...lean OVER...UCLA TT over 43 or so maybe better
*at 74 the OVER a strong play.....might still work just horrible strategy

It is better to be feared - than to be loved.

RLeith35

Legend

Joined: Jan, 2012

Posts: 59231

Posted: Dec. 27, 2012 - 6:13 PM ET #120

Didn't UCLA lose their Conf Champ game to Stanford? Don't u play against a favorite that lost Conf Champ game?

WISEGUY36

Legend

Joined: Jul, 2012

Posts: 34171

Posted: Dec. 27, 2012 - 10:34 PM ET #121

Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:

FUNDAMENTAL EDGE PLAYS

Note: Small play means little to no fundamental edge.

Teams I've played so far this bowl season are : Teams in blue won
and covered. Teams in red did not.All had fundamental edge.

1. UTSU ( teased with Ariz/ Nevada Over)
2. BYU
3. UCF
4. ULL
5. Boise St.
6. Fresno
7. SJSU
8. Cinn.
9. Baylor - TBD

Many of the major Bowl games I'll just be a spectator as I only
have action on 14 of 35 games.

Best of Luck, Bud

Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.

tankstevens

Veteran

Joined: Nov, 2003

Posts: 3603

Posted: Dec. 27, 2012 - 10:36 PM ET #122

now that's a rough bowl season so far, ouch

XX-WTA coachs, over MANY years. PATREON I AM ON! Now I bet. No Coach no!People shut cat

WISEGUY36

Legend

Joined: Jul, 2012

Posts: 34171

Posted: Dec. 27, 2012 - 10:58 PM ET #123

Thanks, I think. BOL

Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.

WISEGUY36

Legend

Joined: Jul, 2012

Posts: 34171

Posted: Dec. 27, 2012 - 11:36 PM ET #124

Bookie, I'm of the opinion that Bama will win the game but
N. dame will come inside the #. what is your opinion ?

Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.

WISEGUY36

Legend

Joined: Jul, 2012

Posts: 34171

Posted: Dec. 28, 2012 - 2:56 AM ET #125

[Quote: Originally Posted by WISEGUY36

FUNDAMENTAL EDGE UPDATE

N. Dame
BA N. Dame
WG Bama -150 to win BCS (large play)

K. Sate
BA   K State
WG Ore. (small play )

OU
BA   OU
WG TaM (small play )

WISKY
BA   Wisky
WG Tree

UGA
BA   UGA
WG UGA

DUKE
BA   Duke
WG Cinn (small play )

Note: Small play means little to no fundamental edge.

Teams I've played so far this bowl season are : Teams in blue won
and covered. Teams in red did not.All had fundamental edge.

1. UTSU ( teased with Ariz/ Nevada Over)
2. BYU
3. UCF
4. ULL
5. Boise St
6. Fresno
7. SJSU
8. Cinn (small )
9. Baylor

Record currently : 7-2

Many of the major Bowl games I'll just be a spectator as I only
have action on 14 of 35 games.

One of these days we'll have to sit down and talk fundamental
handicapping. If I ever fly into DFW, the Lone Stars are on me !!!

Bookie, I still believe that betting on the team that will manage the
game properly is the team to wager on.

Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.

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