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WARNING: for serious bowl degenerates only...

  NO...you do not have to consider all this crap to win money...and NO...you do all these things you are not guaranteed to win
As always...simply tools in your handicapping toolbox...up to you which 'tools' you use...    



2012 BOWL POWER RATINGS AND STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE

*taken as an average of Gold Sheet and Don Best Linemaker's....Sagarin used to break ties
number is the team's strength of schedule...(from Steele)

1     ALABAMA          100.0  (40)
2     OREGON               98.5  (43)
3     TEXAS A&M         96.5  (10)
4     GEORGIA               94.5  (38)
5     NOTRE DAME       93.0  (15)
6     LSU                          92.5  (27)
7     FLA ST                    92.5  (68)
8     OU                           92.5  (17)
9     KAN ST                  91.5  (23)
10    FLA                         91.0  (4)
11    CLEMSON             91.0  (67)
12    S CARO                 90.5  (16)
13    STANFORD           89.5  (8)
14    OKIE ST                 87.5  (18)
15    USC                        87.0  (19)
16    WISC                     87.0  (50)
17    MICHIGAN            87.0  (46)
18    UCLA                     86.0  (32)
19    BOISE                    85.0  (113)
20    NEBRASKA          85.0  (45)
21    OREG ST               84.5  (22)
22    TEXAS                  84.5  (28)
23    TCU                       84.0  (31)
24    BAYLOR               83.5  (3)
25    UTAH ST              83.0  (112)
26    FRESNO                83.0  (84)
27    VANDY                 83.0  (65)
28    N ILLINOIS            82.5  (124) 
29    ARIZ ST                82.0  (49)
30    BYU                      82.0  (77)
31    MICH ST                82.0  (33)
32    CINN                       82.0  (83)
33    W VIRG                  81.5  (21)
34    NW                         81.5  (62)
35    MISS ST                81.5  (55)
36    LOUISVILLE        81.0  (93)
37    OLE MISS              80.5  (6)
38    RUTGERS              80.0  (90)
39    ARIZONA                79.5  (11)



It is better to be feared - than to be loved.
 
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40    UCF                        79.5  (105)
41    SYRACUSE            79.5  (39)
42    NC ST                     79.5  (63)
43    TTECH                   79.0  (36)
44    PITT                        79.0  (60)
45    VA TECH                79.0  (47)
46    SJOSE ST               78.5  (79)       
47    WASHINGTON       78.5  (20)
48    GA TECH                78.5  (45)
49    SAN DIEGO ST      78.0  (96)
50    TULSA                    78.0  (106)
51    ARK ST                  77.5  (86)
52    IOWA ST                  76.5  (9)
53    KENT ST                76.5  (109)
54    TOLEDO                74.0  (85)
55    ULA                        73.0  (76)
56    BGREEN                73.0  (121)
57    BALL ST                72.5  (80)      
58    PURDUE                 72.0  (53)
59    SMU                       71.5  (82)
60    NEVADA                71.5  (120)
61    DUKE                    71.5  (37)
62    WKU                     71.0  (98)
63    NAVY                    71.0  (104)
64    ECARO                  71.0  (99)
65    ULM                      70.5  (110)
66    MINN                    68.5  (58)
67    OHIO                    68.0  (123)
68    AIR FORCE          67.5  (119)
69    RICE                     66.0  (97)
70    C MICH                  62.5  (118)


*I didn't tweek at all...yes some look too high/low....just used raw numbers
It is better to be feared - than to be loved.
 
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STRATEGY


1)  MOTIVATION
 
* Do they want to be here?
How can you tell?...maybe best to ask yourself...when the season began...where did they expect to be?
Have they achieved their goals?...or do they still have 'unfinished business' ?

2)  MATCH-UP

* Some consider this more important....and it probably is in the later...more prestigious bowls
What can a team do (offensively)?...Can their opponent stop it?....and vice-versa
First look at common opponents for hints....then strength of schedule.... and strength of conferences (especially helpful in later bowls)
Don't forget often overlooked areas like special teams....and turnovers
Consider if either team will have a crowd edge     

3) BOWL / COACH  HISTORY

* Seems like maybe an overrated factor....but not at all..
Some coaches have their teams ready...some don't....some no doubt just like the extra work (it amounts to an extra spring practice kinda)   
Remember (most of) these games are more like exhibition games....some teams are fired up and building for next year....some can't wait for the season to end......

-----------------------------------------------------------------

IDEAS

1)  JUST PICK THE WINNER
  *that's right..the SU winner of the game almost always covers too
  in the 'lesser' bowls....about an 80% + proposition...slightly less in the bigger bowls
  **remember this in your bowl confidence entries.....a team you really like to cover...better pick em to win too   

2)  Lean DOGS...in early bowls...FAVORITES in the BCS / more prestigious bowls....
  * a long held handicapping rule...maybe not as reliable today with the parity we see....< hate it
    **also....if BOTH teams fired up...maybe avoid a side play and play the total instead

3)  The early bowls...with lower betting volume...may offer more value...the greater number of wagers (as in Super Bowl)...the tighter the lines
  * just means you have to work harder...or pass...

4)  Crowd edge / travel / weather...
  *look for a potential crowd edge...some teams very far away will have virtually only a few parents there..a team accustomed to playing before 100,000 or so....may struggle before 20,000 or so (their opponent maybe used to it).....check ticket sales to gauge interest
in general...the warm weather team has an edge (can work outside everyday)....check and see if an indoor facility is available...
remember due to budget issues...some teams may take a REALLY long BUS ride...instead of fly...

5)  Look for match-up advantages....
   *especially a strong defensive team...vs a top offensive team after a long lay-off...best is maybe a strong running team vs a weak rushing D...as it takes a lot of pressure off the QB...minimizing te turnover risk..
    look to strength of schedule...and strength of conference to give you hints

6)  INJURIES
  *some teams hit hard with injuries...may emerge a totally different team....especially if these guys are leaving and need a big game

7)  FADE
  **SENIOR heavy teams off a disapponting year...they often are not looking for redemption...but to chase azz and get drunk...
  *the 'bubble-burst' team....looking for a great bowl....and end up in the Weedeater Bowl wtf.....**NEVER play....a 'bubble-burst team
  * the Heisman winner...all the BS takes a ton of time away from game prep....plus everyone telling him how awesome he is...while his opponents are sick of getting asked...how do you ever plan to stop this awesome individual?
  *the team with the extra long lay-off....vs the team with a shorter one....esp if the former is an offensive team....the latter defensive
  *TURNOVER prone teams..the lay-off ain't gonna fix it
  * the bowl virgin...just happy to be here...key is the HC treats it as a vacation...
  ****the interim HC...that has ZERO chance of getting the job...the coaches are spending all their time looking for another job (if they wait it's too late)
  *cold weather teams....with no indoor facility...tough to stay in top condition if you can't work outside
  *warm weather teams...playing in cold weather....Miami...USF come to mind,,,
  *teams in a 'lesser' bowl with key players looking for an NFL contract...all they want to do is not get hurt...you might think they need a big game to impress scouts....NO
  *** average teams that FINISHED strong.....just the opposite of what most think...often these teams revert back to their old self after a long lay-off
  **NEVER play....a 'bubble-burst team

8) PLAY ON
  *the team with the better QB...
  *the team with the better D...special teams
  *a good team that finished poorly.....again the opposite of what most think....the key is the strong team will emerge much omproved...and now offers great value maybe
  *the team returning to the same bowl...if they lost the last time here
  *a senior heavy team....IF MOTIVATED...avoid if in a lesser bowl maybe....and/or in a party city...
  *the team with the interim HC...that the players want to get hired...if the guy has a real shot                 
  *the team from the tougher conference..that played a tougher schedule

9) As always...if you like the FAVORITE....and / or the OVER.....
  *bet it EARLY
  And...if you like the DOG....and / or the UNDER...maybe best to wait....(unless your side is unusually popular)

10) look to play dogs...especially when getting DD (double-digits)...these hit at about a 65% + rate or better over the years....6-10 pt dogs about 60 or so
  $$$ remember that since strong dogs often win outright...don't be afraid to play several on the ML  
 
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CONFERENCE STUFF

best ATS last 6 years
  *SU record next

1)  IND- 64%        5-6
2)  MTW-     59%     20-9
3)  SEC-      58%      34-19
4)  BE -       55%       23-10
5)  P12-      54%      18-17
6)  SB -       54%        7-6
7)  B10-      50%       17-29
8)  WAC-    49%      9-16
9)  ACC-     48%      19-30
10) CUSA-   47%     14-19
11) B12-      38%      25-22
12) MAC-    38%     8-18

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

COACHING STUFF

      


Team                     Out                             In

Arkansas        John L. Smith    Brett Bielema
Arkansas State    Gus Malzahn    Bryan Harsin
Auburn               Gene Chizik    Gus Malzahn
Boston College    Frank Spaziani    Steve Addazio
California            Jeff Tedford    Sonny Dykes
Cincinnati            Butch Jones     Tommy Tuberville
Colorado            Jon Embree    Mike MacIntyre
FIU                  Mario Cristobal       ?
Georgia State    Bill Curry    Trent Miles
Idaho                Robb Akey       Paul Petrino
Kent State       Darrell Hazell    
Kentucky         Joker Phillips    Mark Stoops
Louisiana Tech    Sonny Dykes    Skip Holtz
N.C. State        Tom O'Brien     Dave Doeren
N Illinois           Dave Doeren    Rod Carey
Purdue            Danny Hope      Darrel Hazell
SJose State    Mike MacIntyre   ?
Southern Miss    Ellis Johnson    Todd Monken
Temple             Steve Addazio        ?
Tennessee       Derek Dooley    Butch Jones
Texas Tech       T Tuberville    Kliff Kingsbury
USF                  Skip Holtz    Willie Taggart
UTEP                Mike Price    Sean Kugler
W Kentucky      Willie Taggart  Bobby Petrino
WMichigan         Bill Cubit               ?
Wisconsin    Brett Bielema   



BOWL COACH:
Arkansas State -John Thompson, DC
Cincinnati - Steve Stripling, defensive line coach
Kent State - Darrell Hazell, departing head coach
N.C. State - Dana Bible, offensive coordinator
Northern Illinois - Rod Carey, offensive line coach named new head coach
Purdue - Patrick Higgins, wide receivers coach
San Jose St - Kent Baer, DC
Texas Tech - Chris Thomsen, offensive line coach
Western Kentucky - Lance Guidry, defensive coordinator
Wisconsin - Barry Alvarez, former head coach and current AD



It is better to be feared - than to be loved.
 
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BEST/WORST BOWL COACHES
  ats / su

Bronco M     5-2  5-2
Saban        4-1  4-1
Richt           7-4  6-5
M Riley      5-1  4-2
Peterson     5-1  5-1
Jimbo F      2-0  2-0
Patterson    7-4  4-6-1
Mack          9-4  5-8
--------------------
P Johnson    0-4  0-4
Snyder        6-7  4-9
Ault            3-6  2-6
Spurrier       2-4  2-4
Solich          1-3  1-3
Dantonio      1-4  2-3
Dabo          1-3  1-3
O'Leary      1-3  1-3


-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TEAM ROLES

ATS

Boise      9-3
AF         13-6
Fla St     22-10
Kan St     4-11
WV         7-15
TTech      6-13
Cuse       11-5
Navy       8-4
Nevada     2-7
Texas      9-18
Rutgers    5-2

SU

NW         1-9 *last win during Nuremberg Trials...
Ohio       1-5
S Caro     5-12
TTech      12-22
FSU        24-14
Va Tech    9-16

FAV

Fresno     0-6
Nevada     0-5
TT           3-10
WV         0-7
Texas      6-13
Oreg       2-7
TCU        2-6-1
LSU        7-4
AF         4-1
Okie St    8-3


DOG

Ga Tech    5-3
NC St      7-4
SMU        4-0
Okie St    0-5
NOTRE DAME 5-9
 


FAV / DOG.....O/U
  *ties dropped

2011    fav 18-15 ATS...O/U 14-20
      *DOG won 11 games SU...SU winner 30-4 ATS

2010    fav 20-13 ATS...O/U 17-16
      * dog won 10 SU...SU winner was 29-4 ATS

2009    fav 14-20 ATS...O/U 15-19
      *dog won 17 games!...O/U 15-19

2008    fav was 16-18...O/U 13-21
      *dog won 12

2007    fav 17-15...O/U 16-16
      *dog only won 8
 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


TRAVEL STUFF

  *in GENERAL..it takes the human body ONE DAY to recover / and return to peak performance ability...
from each time zone crossed......

closest...
S Diego St     home field
Vandy          home city
Texas          74 miles
UCF            93 miles
ULM            105
Clemson        110
UCLA           112
ULL            123
Duke           122
CMich          124
A&M            153
OU             173
Ole Miss       167

too damm far
SMU            3794 miles
Fresno         2517  
Navy           2465  
SJSU           2419
Wisc           1662
Tulsa          1657
Oreg St        1711
Mich St        1618
GTech          1290
Baylor         1173
MInny          1059

*few of largest disparities

Texas (74) <> Oreg St (1711)
UCLA (112) <> Baylor (1173)
Ball St (873) <> UCF (93)
Tree (320) <> Wisc (1662)
Toledo (1657) <> Utah St (259)



more to follow......BOL boys.............
It is better to be feared - than to be loved.
 
Legend
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Bookie, Well done
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
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 The Assassin

Good Shitt
 
MVP
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Posted: #8
Wow! Great stuff and thanks 

 
MVP
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Rookie
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Posted: #10
Damn fine work, always good to refresh oneself!  
 
Veteran
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Might just be the most useful post in covers history. Nothing but facts for the reader to use as he wishes.
 
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Posted: #12
You sir a true definition of BookieAssassin

Thanks for giving us all this useful info to smash the bookies.

  BOL  
 
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Nice work
 
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Posted: #14
Freaking awesome, my friend.  


Miles traveled is my fave tidbit from above...thanks for saving us the time.

I was going to add something to your analysis, based on my experience with my coach....but you eventually hit it:

Some coaches have their teams ready...some don't....some no doubt just like the extra work (it amounts to an extra spring practice kinda) 
Already planning for next season and getting major practice reps for the future...

Bookmark it, people.  Same old line from previous bowl seasons...but well worth saving.


 
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 * the Heisman winner...all the BS takes a ton of time away from game prep....plus everyone telling him how awesome he is...while his opponents are sick of getting asked...how do you ever plan to stop this awesome individual?

Especially if you finally get a FRESHMAN Heisman winner?  
 
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thanks bookie great stuff!!
 
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Posted: #17
Experienced QBs are a huge part of picking the winner.  I also look for at least 3 established targets (RB, WR or TE).  For the QB, I like to see a high completion percentage.  If you throw an accurate ball, you get your timing back faster after the layoff before the bowl.

Here are some of my strategies:

1)  Fade any team that says they don't want to play in that Bowl.  EG:  USC does not want to be in El Paso on New Years Eve.

2)  Play on teams that had a good season or last half of a season that have been historically sub-par.  It always takes a while for a team to get recognition.  EG:  San Jose St

3)  Bet against big name schools who have been in the top 25 or are in the top 25 that can't play defense. Some teams build up good defensive stats vs mediocre teams but give up 500+ yards to good teams EG:  Bet against Nebraska.(23rd best defense statistically but much lower in reality)




 
Prospect
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Posted: #18
Outstanding research...Props my man 
 
Captain
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Posted: #19
Good stuff man!!  Motivation is HUGE over the next couple of weeks!!
 
Hall of Fame
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Posted: #20
 
Veteran
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Posted: #21
Nice work some of it quite enlightening
 
Veteran
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Posted: #22
much appreciated
 
Captain
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thanks, bookie
 
Prospect
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Posted: #24
 
 
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