BOWL Betting Strategy / Notes / Game Analysis...

Thanks boys.......

 *I'll post a breakdown of this week's games sometime tomorrow ....instead of all at once.....as lines won't move much anyway......

In last 20 years....only 19 or so (of around 525 games)
have seen line movements of more than 4 points
  *according to Vegas Insider........BTW...the team that the line moved 'toward'....is 12-6-1 ATS

note > I'm sure they're using an opening line once it has 'settled'.....disregarding crazy openers at small books/casinos trying to drum up some biz....'cuz it seems like many more than 19.......
.


THORPE.....you better watch out fading USC ....

*tough one to handicap....overriding factor here ?

Ga Tech STINKS....and plays poorly in bowls..(0-7 SU / 1-6 ATS run)......with a weak pass D and poor ST.....
  * and vs good teams > GT #102 D.....#120 on 3rd down
$$ ....the smart thing to do ....when both teams motivation is in question...might be to play the OVER (this case)...and forget it...which is what I'll prob do....

But with Trojans out of a bowl the last 2 yrs....and this being Barkley's last game....I view this as a going away party kinda thing....if their 'bubble' had been burst LATE .....instead of EARLY (week 3)....it would be different

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BTW......I've got some pretty good technical numbers for each game and for each team...(will post with each game breakdown)....here 9 of last 11 Sun Bowls have gone OVER......the DOG....has covered 14 of last 16......cough.......BUT the Pac12 is 11-2-1 ATS here

*Trojans are 7-1 SU/ATS in bowls.....and 5-1 OVER.....av 39 pts/g.....LK a key part of those teams

Gotta play my annual bowl contest before christmas (due this saturday) and would love to get some of your plays or leans early--maybe without a big write-up.  hate to ask and if you're too busy, I definitely understand.  

sure man.....I can post notes/leans.....on each game Wed or Thurs at the latest....maybe a good way to stimulate some actual game discussion around here....

Now this is research, this is info, this is valuable not ridiculous fonts and colors and cell phone wagers and other nonsense.

This is what I call real handicapping.

Best info yet!! Thanks and may we all get a piece of the cash flow. Bookies need to learn who not to f$%&# with during bowl season.....

impossible to tell who's happy / who's not....
but based on .....where did they EXPECT to be?....when season began....here's a rough list
  *keeping in mind we should GUESS...as little as possible....not saying their play will (necessarily) suffer....just their task a little tougher maybe


YES

Notre Dame
Alabama
N Illinois
Louisville
Kent St...coach staying to coach this one...last bowl '71
Duke
Ball St.....1st since '08
Rice...3rd in 50 years
ULM.....1st ever bowl
Vandy
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NW...last W in 1948
CMich
WKU*.....but no HC
SJSU*...ditto
BGreen
UCLA
Baylor
Minny
Navy
Syracuse
Oreg St
Tulsa
Clemson
Wisky
Tree
Florida
Texas A&M

SHOULD BE / MAYBE

BYU
SDSU
ECaro
ULL
Boise....3rd st time in LV...only 4 losses in 3 years
Wash
SMU
Cinn
Wash
Ohio
Air Force...bad year + back in FW for 4th time in 6 years...
Ariz St
TCU
Mich St
NC St
GTech
Ole Miss
Pitt
Iowa St
Purdue
Miss St
Michigan
S Caro
Fla St
Kan St
Oregon
Ark St

NO

UCF...appealed probation thinking BCS buster....now playing Ball St in a large toilet
Rutgers....was thinking BCS
VTech...off 6-6 might want to finish with winning record...or when is this gonna end?
TTech...Tommy 'Tooberville' a helluva guy
LSU....but Les usually has them ready for these non-BCS bowls
Nebraska...Rose Bowl plans already made...obviously
OU...not where they wanted to be...but nice consolation vs Aggies


HELL NO

W Virg...thinking Heisman/BCS at one point....now freezing azz off vs a BE team?
TEXAS...Mack does OK in these bowls...but playing in a crap stadium 75 miles from home not what Horns/fans want
USC...Trojans way too cool to be hangin' out in El Paso on NY's eve....
Okie St...from Fiesta to 'Heart of Dallas' Bowl?....vs 6-6 Purdue wtf
Georgia...prolly 3rd-4th best team in nation...now playing B10 team that lost by 40 to 5 loss Wisky?



 

CONFERENCE BOWL NOTES

MTW

  *LY only losing record since '03 (2-3).....5-0 OVER LY
  *15-4 OVER as dog

good?...8-1 ATS when DD spread (5-0 if fav / 3-1 dog)
        vs BCS tms - 7-0 /6-1
        vs CUSA - 5-1/5-1

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SEC

  *if total 55+...UNDER is 20-8-1 ATS
good?...in BCS - 13-3/12-4
        vs B12 - 7-0/7-0...(15-4 ATS run)

bad?...vs BE -1-8 / 1-8...WTF
       vs ACC-1-5 ATS...dogs 10-3-1
       12/25 > 1/1...3-6 / 2-7
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Pac12

  *6-12/ 8-10 run
good?...as 6+ dogs- 15-3 ATS
        vs B10 - 16-4-1 ATS
        in BCS- 11-6/13-4 !!  

bad?...vs WAC- 4-8 / 0-11
        6+ fav - 8-21-1 ATS
       < 12/25 - 2-7/2-7
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ACC

  *3-10/5-7-1 run
   
good?...vs SEC- 4-2/5-1
        vs BE...13-9/15-6-1

bad?...vs Pac12 - 0-5/1-4
        vs B12 - 2-6/2-6
        in BCS - 1-12 SU / 3-9-1
           note UNDER is 10-3
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BIG EAST

  *12-6/12/6 run

good?..vs SEC 8-1/8-1
       vs B12 - 6-1/6-1
       as <6 fav - 9-2/8-3

bad?...as 6+ dog - 3-16/4-15
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BIG 10

  *fav is 16-2/13-4-1 !!!!
  *4-6/3-6-1 run

good?...in BCS - 4-3/5-1-1
        short dog < 3 -9-5/9-5

bad?...as 6+ fav - 9-8/2-15 !!
       vs P12 - 9-15/5-18-1
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BIG 12

  *6-2/5-3 LY

good?...vs P12 - 9-4/8-5
        ACC - 7-3/8-2
        B10 - 13-3/7-9

bad?...in BCS -7-9/4-12
       <10 pt dog - 2-14/3-13
       vs SEC - 0-7/0-7
       vs BE - 1-6/1-6
       all Jan bowls - 11-15/6-19
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CUSA

  *7-0 UNDER.....dogs 10-7/11-5-1

good?...as 7+ dog - 11-4-1 ATS
       vs MAC - 6-0/6-0 (fav is 11-1 ATS)
       vs WAC - 8-4/9-2-1 (dogs 11-1-1)
bad?....vs MTW - 1-5/1-5

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MAC

  *9-19/9-18-1 run...but 6-3/5-3-1 lately)
 
good?...< 12/25 - 8-3/8-3

bad?...> 12/25 - 4-13/2-14-1
       vs BE - 0-6/1-5
       vs CUSA - 0-6/0-6
       as dog 5-20/7-17-1
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BELT

  *7-7/8-5
  *dogs are 8-1-1
  *when total 55+ - 8-2 OVER
  *NOrl Bowl - 7-0 OVER

good?...6-1 as dog

bad?...0-3 when fav

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WAC

  *6-14/7-12-1 run
  *total < 48 - 11-4 UNDER
  *vs MTW / CUSA - dogs 19-3-1 ATS

good?...vs B12/P12 - 10-1 ATS....wtf

bad?...vs CUSA - 2-9-1 ATS
       < 12/25 - 1-12/3-9-1

conference stuff from Vegas Insider...Gold Sheet....Steele ++++

often overlooked....some of these trends too strong to be ignored...usually valuable as bowls progress....but maybe a good idea to be aware of these before you bet
  *not 'play on'....or 'fade' a team directly because of a trend....but to help if you are undecided....or simply leaning one way or another....... 

forgot....
1st # is SU record......2nd is ATS

example from Pac 12........

vs WAC- 4-8 / 0-11  > vs WAC teams they have won 4 of 12....and covered NONE.................... wtf

6+ fav - 8-21-1 ATS >  as a favorite of 6 or more.... they have covered only 8 of 30 games...........holy crap

< 12/25 - 2-7/2-7 > in games before Christmas Day....they have won 2 and lost 7.....and only covering 2 as well

above numbers clearly show USC is the play!.....
or maybe not.....

naw I wouldn't recommend actually putting hard earned cash on USC for sure...just saying watch out if you like GT that's all.....

I would think GT get's out to an early lead.....USC comes back and wins it....don't see how either team stops the other....seems like games are high scoring when neither is particularly fired up....esp when both are offensive teams........
  *I like OVER for the game.....and might play USC in-game or at halftime....GT will have NO ANSWER for Woods/Lee

*certainly no shocker if we see Lane/company walking off the field.....after giving up 400 rushing.....with that WTF just happened?....how did we lose this one?...look 

 great stuff

 

 

GL bookie

Bookie, This information is outstanding!!!!
Thank you for taking the time to put
this together for all to use.

Best of Luck this Bowl season.

PS  I left you a message on your 5 dimes bowl thread.

What's your opinion of the BYU / SDSU matchup ?

thanks Bud.

sorry forgot about that one.............

*no strong opinion on that one.....I would lean SDSU and the UNDER....but kinda tough to go against BYU in a bowl game...

good man WG.......... BOL ............

Thanks Bookie, I like the under as well.
My thought is since BYU 's players don't
drink or smoke, and a lot of them are married,
they can't get into TOO much trouble in SD.
However, they probably stopped in Vegas on
the way. So I'm betting on a bunch of players
that are now "broke " and mad as HELL about it.

nope...no gambling either.............

I guess I'll have to count on their run defense then
and hope Riley Nelson doesn't throw it " up for
grabs' too many times.

bookie  you are  the best  of  all !!!!!!!

merci de toutes ces informations   !!!!

Hey Bookie, Why do you think they built those
casinos and liquor stores in Mesquite.?

same reason where I live (Dallas / Fort Worth, TX)....
has one of the highest concentrations of churches....and strip clubs in the country ...
  *as is true all over the south it seems

you see a bunch of churches....a liquor store and whorehouse is right around the corner for sure....
 

Love this thread 

Double, keep up the good work, the revenues generated by the
info you and Bookie share has paid for my cell phone bill more
more than once.