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bookieassassin

All-Star

Joined: Jun, 2007

Posts: 10310

Posted: Jan. 4, 2013 - 3:49 PM ET #176

in fact vs spread teams (similar to Aggs)...Sooners allowed 131 pts and over ONE MILE of offense...

*sorry left out....vs 3 teams....(Baylor....WV...Okie St)

It is better to be feared - than to be loved.

bookieassassin

All-Star

Joined: Jun, 2007

Posts: 10310

Posted: Jan. 4, 2013 - 4:40 PM ET #177

also forgot.....no HUGE deal but maybe slight affect
*the guy Manziel talks to/comfortable with for in-game stuff....and Aggie play-caller
OC KIngsbury is gone here .....new HC at TTech

It is better to be feared - than to be loved.

bookieassassin

All-Star

Joined: Jun, 2007

Posts: 10310

Posted: Jan. 5, 2013 - 11:07 AM ET #178

SAT 1/5   1:00pm

         Line         PF    PA SU ATS    O/U/P    TO

PITT   53.5    27.4    18.8    6-6    8-4-0    4-6-0    +12
MISS -3.5 30.9    28.5    6-6    9-3-0    5-6-0    -1

            offense                      defense
     RY   RYPA    PY    PYPC RY    RYPA    PY    PYPC
P   137.4    3.6    263.0    8.7 129.1   3.8 196.8    6.3
M 169.8    4.0    257.0    8.3 134.3 3.6    250.7    7.6

VALUE
*none

Travel/SOS/weather/injuries
*Ole Miss 167 miles..Pitt 608
   Ole Miss with big crowd edge...selling it's ticket allotment...buying 4,000 from Pitt

* Rebels much tougher (#6 > 60)

*MOSTLY CLOUDY, 30% CHANCE LIGHT RAIN LATE. NORTHEAST WIND 3-8.KICKOFF TEMP 47

*Pitt- st RG Doakes OUT (down to 3rd string RG)
****Ole Miss QB Wallace playing with bad shoulder...that should require surgery when season ends****

TRENDS
* game - BE is 5-1.....UNDER is 6-0

*Pitt- 3rd st year here...fav in Pitt bowls is 5-1/5-1...
   all games 9-1 UNDER....12-5-2 as dog

*Ole Miss - 8-1 SU/7-1-1 bowls...all games 8-3 UNDER as fav...1-8 away as < TD fav

***BE teams have now won 9 of last 10 vs SEC ****

MOTIVATION
*slight to Ole Miss...no bowls since '09 Cottton Bowl...Pitt returning here for 3rd st year

MATCH-UP
*both teams with 1st year HC that struggled early...Pitt seems to play to the level of it's opponents....so is dangerous here...like lose to Youngstown St ...2 weeks later crush Va Tech...or struggle with Buffalo then almost beat Notre Dame
Ole Miss seems to be the stronger team in the trenches with more playmakers....killed early by Texas..but playing Bama tough and almost beating A&M at home and at LSU...I like how they handled Miss St with little problem off the tough road loss to LSU
Pitt just solid offensively and defensively...QB Sunseri is much improved (19 TD / 2 INT)...sacked about 65 times last year....his OL much improved but will have problems with an aggressive Ole Miss DL (#14 sacks / #6 TFL)..Although Pitt has 2 excellent backs....they don't run well (rank #7 in BE at 2.97/rush)...putting too much pressure on Sunseri....Ole MIss OL shaky too...but faced MUCH tougher defensive fronts
Rebels much more turnover prone (lost 27 / gained 26)....Pitt only 8 TO's / gained 20)...Pitt with a significant ST edge..but Rebels with better kicker

WHAT SHOULD HAPPEN
*Pitt....a proven dog with a large turnover and ST edge...should be the 1st look here.....but to me Ole Miss....off a 2 win season...is the more motivated....battle tested and talented team....their DL should be the difference in a low scoring game

$$ solid play Ole Miss -3....(game should be close...I would consider buying the half pt if needed)

BOL boys.......................

pretty impressive offensive game plan by Sooners last nite .........

It is better to be feared - than to be loved.

bookieassassin

All-Star

Joined: Jun, 2007

Posts: 10310

Posted: Jan. 5, 2013 - 11:09 AM ET #179

forgot.....
Pitt lost it's DC Huxtable also....left for NC ST.

It is better to be feared - than to be loved.

Kalven

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2011

Posts: 50

Posted: Jan. 5, 2013 - 11:56 AM ET #180

I'm on Pitt good read tho. I starting to see a strange trend within this bowl games with conferences. SEC won last night they'll loose tonight and win with Bama.

bookieassassin

All-Star

Joined: Jun, 2007

Posts: 10310

Posted: Jan. 6, 2013 - 6:37 PM ET #181

GODADDY.COM BOWL
9:00PM

               Line   PF   PA   SU   ATS   O/U/P   TO

ARK ST   61   36.4   25.4   9-3    8-4-0   6-5-0   +8
KENT ST -3'    34.6   25.1   11-2   10-2-1 8-4-0   +21

           offense                             defense
          RY RYPA PY PYPC   RY   RYPA   PY   PYPC
ASU 219.0   5.2   262.8   8.3 153.3   4.0   233.2   7.0
KSU 228.3   5.4 162.9   6.5 142.2   3.9   276.5   7.3

TV: ESPN, DTV: 206 | CLEAR, NORTHEAST WIND 3-8. KICKOFF TEMP 50

VALUE
*none

Travel/SOS/injuries
*ASU 388 miles...KSU 814
* ASU tougher schedule
* no key injuries

TRENDS
*game- blow-outs...9 of last 10 decided by 14+...Sun Belt is 3-0/2-1 ATS
ASU - never won a bowl...14-6 as a fav
KSU - 1st bowl in 42 years...11-2 ATS TY

MOTIVATION
*big edge to Flashes here...as both lost their HC...but KSU HC Hazell is staying with his team here..ASU played here LY (also with interim HC) losing to N Illinois

MATCH-UP
Big edge to ASU here....much better O....probably better D...with a huge edge at QB
ASU QB Aplin (can run too) is nation's 16th rated passer (68%...8.3/att...260/g...23 TD/4 INT)...KSU QB Keith #96 (55%...6.2/143...12/9)
If they can' run here....Flashes will be in trouble..
What should keep Flashes in this one (and great angle in bowls)....KSU ranks #1 in TO margin....has a ST unit that ranks top 10...and one of the nation's best in using FIELD POSITION to their advantage (#6)....ASU among nation's worst in the last 2 ....but +8 TO's

WHAT SHOULD HAPPEN
*maybe look for a game similar to what saw in MAC title game...where NIU appeared to be killing the Flashes...but score was tight at the end...If Malzahn would have stayed Ark St would be the call...but look for KSU players to rally behind their well-liked coach Hazell and win a high scoring game....

$$$ strong play Kent St +3.....strong lean OVER
*KSU ML maybe the best way to go

BOL boys............

It is better to be feared - than to be loved.

DrStrangelove

Veteran

Joined: Aug, 2008

Posts: 3701

Posted: Jan. 6, 2013 - 8:30 PM ET #182

I'm not sure a team without a coach is any worse off than a team who's coach has already commited to another school. All things being equal I lean Arky State tonight. But when it comes to these two conferences, a January bowl game is an iffy propostiion any way you look at it. BOL

bookieassassin

All-Star

Joined: Jun, 2007

Posts: 10310

Posted: Jan. 7, 2013 - 4:59 PM ET #183

8:30 PM    Line Betting Trend
Open    Current    Spread    Money    O/U
Ala          -10.5    -9.5       40%    14%    44%
N Dame    44.5    40.5      60%    86%    56%

PARTLY CLOUDY, 30% CHANCE SHOWERS EARLY. EAST WIND 6-11.KICKOFF TEMP 74

             PF      PA       SU     ATS        OU        TO
ALA      38.5    10.7    12-1    6-7-0    7-5-0      +13
ND        26.8    10.3    12-0    7-5-0    2-10-0    +9

         offense                           defense
     RY PA       PY    PYPC    RY    RYPA    PY    PC
A 224.6    5.6    214.5    9.3    79.8    2.5   166.2    6.0
N 202.5    5.0    218.8    7.5    92.4    3.2   194.4    5.7

VALUE
*with Irish...line should be 7 or so

SOS/weather/injuries
*ND faced tougher schedule

   ND - Offense - faced #1 toughest schedule of D's (5th rushing / 15th passing)
        Defense - faced #31 toughest O's (19th rushing / 30th passing)
   Bama - O - faced #24 D (#28 rushing/ #18 passing)
          D - faced #26 O (#27 rushing/ 29th passing)

TRENDS
game - SEC is 6-0 SU / ATS...dogs of TD+ are 4-0 ATS
Bama- Saban 7-6/7-6 bowls...3-0/3-0 BCS title games
        as DD fav 42-1 SU/ 27-16 ATS
ND - Kelly 3-2 SU/ ATS bowls...and 15-5 ATS vs very good teams (75%+ winning)

PERSONNEL
*roughly Bama has 10 guys likely drafted by NFL ...Irish 7 (currently draft eligible)
*ND -18/22 starters are UPPERclassmen.....OL st 4 Sr/1 Jr. (only 3/2 deep are Fr/So)
      on D...8 backup's are Fr/So ....total of 16 Sr / 4 Fr in 2 deep
*Bama- 15/22 st are upperclassmen...OL st 2 Sr/2 Jr/1 So (bu 3 So/1 Jr / 1 Fr)
      on O 13/22 are UNDERclassmen....9 Sr / 7 FR in 2 deep
*INJ _ Irish no key...Bama C Jones bad foot <100%...NG Williams ditto.....prime deep threat WR Bell (could) play

MATCH-UP
*Both teams with very few weaknesses...Irish have one of CFB's toughest (in awhile) red zone D's (allowed 8 TD in 33 trips) and also one of the highest defensive yards per point in years (27.8)...so yes we know Irish will strugle to move it...but not much to suggest Bama just rolls over N Dame here (as a 10 pt favorite)....
Key will be how effective will Irish rFr QB Golson be?...recall several times this year he had to be pulled from games....Bama D has been exposed (somewhat) by running QB's and shown a weakness in coverage...Irish will have to open the game up and take some risks here....as their running game not strong enough on it's own....
If Irish can create big plays offensively and move the chains/keeping their D off the field...they can stay in this one
note > Irish red zone O....among nation's worst (27 TD in 58 attempts)
Bama has one of their strongest rushing attacks in years (see that Georgia game wow)...QB McCarron much improved (nation's #2 passer) 67%....9.3/att....26 TD/3 INT
note > in terms of efficiency ratings...Irish ST are weak (#89)....and they make poor use of field position (#68)...Bama #30 and #7 resp


WHAT SHOULD HAPPEN
*Irish HC Kelly will find a way to get some early points on the board...keeping the game close for awhile....Bama rushing attack/better QB should be the difference in a 21-13....24-17 type game
mistakes by Golson being the key to a Bama cover....or not

$ ND +10 ...slightest lean OVER (total about right)....to me game could go either way....10 points just too many in a low scoring game ...Irish +4' 1H not bad / then Bama 2H
      *note > favorite has covered 9 of last 11 bowls

BOL boys..............

It is better to be feared - than to be loved.

nc1capper

MVP

Joined: Aug, 2007

Posts: 16348

Posted: Jan. 7, 2013 - 5:01 PM ET #184

Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:

8:30 PM    Line Betting Trend
Open    Current    Spread    Money    O/U
Ala          -10.5    -9.5       40%    14%    44%
N Dame    44.5    40.5      60%    86%    56%

PARTLY CLOUDY, 30% CHANCE SHOWERS EARLY. EAST WIND 6-11.KICKOFF TEMP 74

             PF      PA       SU     ATS        OU        TO
ALA      38.5    10.7    12-1    6-7-0    7-5-0      +13
ND        26.8    10.3    12-0    7-5-0    2-10-0    +9

         offense                           defense
     RY PA       PY    PYPC    RY    RYPA    PY    PC
A 224.6    5.6    214.5    9.3    79.8    2.5   166.2    6.0
N 202.5    5.0    218.8    7.5    92.4    3.2   194.4    5.7

VALUE
*with Irish...line should be 7 or so

SOS/weather/injuries
*ND faced tougher schedule

   ND - Offense - faced #1 toughest schedule of D's (5th rushing / 15th passing)
        Defense - faced #31 toughest O's (19th rushing / 30th passing)
   Bama - O - faced #24 D (#28 rushing/ #18 passing)
          D - faced #26 O (#27 rushing/ 29th passing)

TRENDS
game - SEC is 6-0 SU / ATS...dogs of TD+ are 4-0 ATS
Bama- Saban 7-6/7-6 bowls...3-0/3-0 BCS title games
        as DD fav 42-1 SU/ 27-16 ATS
ND - Kelly 3-2 SU/ ATS bowls...and 15-5 ATS vs very good teams (75%+ winning)

PERSONNEL
*roughly Bama has 10 guys likely drafted by NFL ...Irish 7 (currently draft eligible)
*ND -18/22 starters are UPPERclassmen.....OL st 4 Sr/1 Jr. (only 3/2 deep are Fr/So)
      on D...8 backup's are Fr/So ....total of 16 Sr / 4 Fr in 2 deep
*Bama- 15/22 st are upperclassmen...OL st 2 Sr/2 Jr/1 So (bu 3 So/1 Jr / 1 Fr)
      on O 13/22 are UNDERclassmen....9 Sr / 7 FR in 2 deep
*INJ _ Irish no key...Bama C Jones bad foot <100%...NG Williams ditto.....prime deep threat WR Bell (could) play

MATCH-UP
*Both teams with very few weaknesses...Irish have one of CFB's toughest (in awhile) red zone D's (allowed 8 TD in 33 trips) and also one of the highest defensive yards per point in years (27.8)...so yes we know Irish will strugle to move it...but not much to suggest Bama just rolls over N Dame here (as a 10 pt favorite)....
Key will be how effective will Irish rFr QB Golson be?...recall several times this year he had to be pulled from games....Bama D has been exposed (somewhat) by running QB's and shown a weakness in coverage...Irish will have to open the game up and take some risks here....as their running game not strong enough on it's own....
If Irish can create big plays offensively and move the chains/keeping their D off the field...they can stay in this one
note > Irish red zone O....among nation's worst (27 TD in 58 attempts)
Bama has one of their strongest rushing attacks in years (see that Georgia game wow)...QB McCarron much improved (nation's #2 passer) 67%....9.3/att....26 TD/3 INT
note > in terms of efficiency ratings...Irish ST are weak (#89)....and they make poor use of field position (#68)...Bama #30 and #7 resp


WHAT SHOULD HAPPEN
*Irish HC Kelly will find a way to get some early points on the board...keeping the game close for awhile....Bama rushing attack/better QB should be the difference in a 21-13....24-17 type game
mistakes by Golson being the key to a Bama cover....or not

$ ND +10 ...slightest lean OVER (total about right)....to me game could go either way....10 points just too many in a low scoring game ...Irish +4' 1H not bad / then Bama 2H
      *note > favorite has covered 9 of last 11 bowls

BOL boys..............

MEGALOCKS

MVP

Joined: Dec, 2003

Posts: 18138

Posted: Jan. 7, 2013 - 5:01 PM ET #185

GL and great work this yr

Kalven

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2011

Posts: 50

Posted: Jan. 7, 2013 - 5:17 PM ET #186

thanks bookie.... will you stick around for NBA

luckyly

Veteran

Joined: Jun, 2007

Posts: 3214

Posted: Jan. 7, 2013 - 6:51 PM ET #187

LIKE 1ST HALF ALOT,,,,

nc1capper

MVP

Joined: Aug, 2007

Posts: 16348

Posted: Jan. 7, 2013 - 6:59 PM ET #188

Good luck there Sir, I'm on the tide at -2.5 on the back end of a teaser (kent st plus 10.5) so maybe we can meet in the middle -

UNDER 42 is main play, just looking for a little gravy with the teaser , b Well my friend

CalBear

Hall of Fame

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 21426

Posted: Jan. 7, 2013 - 7:11 PM ET #189

Hardest working man in show biz. GL Bookie!

WISEGUY36

Legend

Joined: Jul, 2012

Posts: 34171

Posted: Jan. 8, 2013 - 12:23 AM ET #190

Bookie, thanks for all your insight during the season.
I guess I can now fix my attention on the surf report
till next July.If you ever want to talk football,you know
where to find me. blessings, you're the best.

Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.

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