I just wish you'd concentrate on contributing more game discussions rather than what side of a 50/50 gamble is the one to be weary of. No disrespect whatsoever, I just think there is way too much of this "trap" garbage on Covers, and it misleads people into thinking Vegas is playing mind games, or keeping secrets from them.
Like I said, focus more on the football discussion rather than how Vegas is trying to lure you to one side. If they want your money on a particular side, they'll adjust the line in order to do so.
GL fellas
very possibly the best post i have ever seen on covers...
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Quote Originally Posted by jkochvar:
I just wish you'd concentrate on contributing more game discussions rather than what side of a 50/50 gamble is the one to be weary of. No disrespect whatsoever, I just think there is way too much of this "trap" garbage on Covers, and it misleads people into thinking Vegas is playing mind games, or keeping secrets from them.
Like I said, focus more on the football discussion rather than how Vegas is trying to lure you to one side. If they want your money on a particular side, they'll adjust the line in order to do so.
GL fellas
very possibly the best post i have ever seen on covers...
I think you are the one missing the point. I never said Vegas always succeeds in getting 50% of the money on each side, in fact, they rarely do. Their INTENTION is to do this because it minimizes their exposure to a loss! Period. They are banking on the only true thing they can rely on, and that is statistics.
And though you reference the Florida St. example, it does you no justice in proving your point. The line in the FSU/BYU game, as well as the USF matchup the following week was intended to do just as I've consistently stated- get equal attention from bettors on both the favorite and the underdog. You are correct about emotional factors, previous weeks performances, etc. factoring into the line. There are many other things considered in developing a line, including talent, home-field, injuris, track records, weather, etc, etc....and because bettors analyze games from different angles, they all tend to arrive at the same conclusions for many different reasons. This results in many people liking one side, and many liking the other. As I've repeatedly said, it's all a game of statistics....they have to create a line that will garner as equal action as possible, because they only have a few points either way to make adjustments once money is placed on either side.
And for the record, I never got high on FSU's win over BYU, nor did I discount USF in last week's game. Your point was not proven and made no sense. Any wise bettor, or bookie for that matter, will tell you the objective is simple: Split the exposure down the middle when possible, and reap the 10% juice. You are obviously one of the guys who thinks they outsmart Vegas from time to time.
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Quote Originally Posted by 440Primetime:
440 primetime-
I think you are the one missing the point. I never said Vegas always succeeds in getting 50% of the money on each side, in fact, they rarely do. Their INTENTION is to do this because it minimizes their exposure to a loss! Period. They are banking on the only true thing they can rely on, and that is statistics.
And though you reference the Florida St. example, it does you no justice in proving your point. The line in the FSU/BYU game, as well as the USF matchup the following week was intended to do just as I've consistently stated- get equal attention from bettors on both the favorite and the underdog. You are correct about emotional factors, previous weeks performances, etc. factoring into the line. There are many other things considered in developing a line, including talent, home-field, injuris, track records, weather, etc, etc....and because bettors analyze games from different angles, they all tend to arrive at the same conclusions for many different reasons. This results in many people liking one side, and many liking the other. As I've repeatedly said, it's all a game of statistics....they have to create a line that will garner as equal action as possible, because they only have a few points either way to make adjustments once money is placed on either side.
And for the record, I never got high on FSU's win over BYU, nor did I discount USF in last week's game. Your point was not proven and made no sense. Any wise bettor, or bookie for that matter, will tell you the objective is simple: Split the exposure down the middle when possible, and reap the 10% juice. You are obviously one of the guys who thinks they outsmart Vegas from time to time.
Kentucky / Bama again no "trap"....decent argument for both sides...
UTEP ......on it's way to +17 .....huge public noose (Cougars BCS bound.....Keenum for Heisman !!) < BS nobody but me and few others give miners a chance
Syracuse seems to be getting support....otherwise would qualify
Miami, O would qualify but better not
bout it.....SMU....Wash St....Rice maybe....
It is better to be feared - than to be loved.
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Kentucky / Bama again no "trap"....decent argument for both sides...
UTEP ......on it's way to +17 .....huge public noose (Cougars BCS bound.....Keenum for Heisman !!) < BS nobody but me and few others give miners a chance
Syracuse seems to be getting support....otherwise would qualify
BTW....agree with jk....trap games silly....but since this chick / victim talk is common theme EVERYWHERE....might as well join in from time to time
Some games may indeed be (unintentionally) a "trap"....but only because of a lack of knowledge and laziness of the common d-bag that bets on games......the trap is created in the mind of the betting d-bag....not by those offering the wager....
It is better to be feared - than to be loved.
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BTW....agree with jk....trap games silly....but since this chick / victim talk is common theme EVERYWHERE....might as well join in from time to time
Some games may indeed be (unintentionally) a "trap"....but only because of a lack of knowledge and laziness of the common d-bag that bets on games......the trap is created in the mind of the betting d-bag....not by those offering the wager....
Agreed buddy. It all comes down to public perception, which factors heavily into each line. The average Joe doesn't usually know the whole scoop on a matchup, only that Florida is "the best in the country" or Texas "should destroy" Baylor. Pretty much my point in a nutshell.
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bookieassassin-
Agreed buddy. It all comes down to public perception, which factors heavily into each line. The average Joe doesn't usually know the whole scoop on a matchup, only that Florida is "the best in the country" or Texas "should destroy" Baylor. Pretty much my point in a nutshell.
very possibly the best post i have ever seen on covers...
Not even close.....Here is the problem with this theory. I can sit here all day and read how Cincy is going to kill Miami of Ohio. I'll bet 99 percent of the post say this. They will give out stats and how terrible Miami is, and they will say stuff like I just don't see how Miami can stay within 40 points. All of these points might be valid, but they are also points I can get from any high school or college college football fan that does not bet games. Even the 5th grade students that I counsel, understand that Cincy should kill Miami. Therefore, reading posts that cite every statistic in the world about why Cincy should kill them is really pointless to me because I already know this logic. So threads like this are good because they force us, myself included, to read between the lines and always factor in the possibility that maybe there is something else important in the game that we might be missing.
If gambling were this easy, I would just take Cincy to kill Miami, despite it being Miami's rival, because Cincy should kill them. Unfortunately, most people are getting killed this year taking huge favs laying tons of points because they should kill their opposing teams. This is just an example, I really am not playing this game, but just using it to make my point. Again, that is why I like threads like this. Keep it up coach.
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Quote Originally Posted by Ice4Blood:
very possibly the best post i have ever seen on covers...
Not even close.....Here is the problem with this theory. I can sit here all day and read how Cincy is going to kill Miami of Ohio. I'll bet 99 percent of the post say this. They will give out stats and how terrible Miami is, and they will say stuff like I just don't see how Miami can stay within 40 points. All of these points might be valid, but they are also points I can get from any high school or college college football fan that does not bet games. Even the 5th grade students that I counsel, understand that Cincy should kill Miami. Therefore, reading posts that cite every statistic in the world about why Cincy should kill them is really pointless to me because I already know this logic. So threads like this are good because they force us, myself included, to read between the lines and always factor in the possibility that maybe there is something else important in the game that we might be missing.
If gambling were this easy, I would just take Cincy to kill Miami, despite it being Miami's rival, because Cincy should kill them. Unfortunately, most people are getting killed this year taking huge favs laying tons of points because they should kill their opposing teams. This is just an example, I really am not playing this game, but just using it to make my point. Again, that is why I like threads like this. Keep it up coach.
Yes, they "should" kill Miami. This is why the line is huge. More likely than not, many of us will like taking the points, and many of us will say the number is manageable and gamble on Cincy to cover the number. Vegas has achieved their objective in this matchup. This is further proving my point.
I agree discussion threads are great, and that's why I encouraged them. It would just be nice to get away from the conspiracies.
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Yes, they "should" kill Miami. This is why the line is huge. More likely than not, many of us will like taking the points, and many of us will say the number is manageable and gamble on Cincy to cover the number. Vegas has achieved their objective in this matchup. This is further proving my point.
I agree discussion threads are great, and that's why I encouraged them. It would just be nice to get away from the conspiracies.
you people are dumb coach has picked a game each week in which he feels the line is the most fucked up and each week people come into this thread saying how is this a trap blah blah blah each week thus far he has been correct so you think its just dumb luck that hes picked a winner in each week so far? think what you want but if you can look for the most fucked up line and bet the team that has no biz covering...
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you people are dumb coach has picked a game each week in which he feels the line is the most fucked up and each week people come into this thread saying how is this a trap blah blah blah each week thus far he has been correct so you think its just dumb luck that hes picked a winner in each week so far? think what you want but if you can look for the most fucked up line and bet the team that has no biz covering...
All things being said, I do agree with your pick Tressel. Kentucky isn't as good as they've been the past 2 years, but I think last week's game against Florida was enough to show UK what they're up against and should at least put them in the right mindset to take on a team of Alabama's caliber. They were blown out last week, so they may want to swallow their pride and take another shot at it this week.
GL with your pick
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All things being said, I do agree with your pick Tressel. Kentucky isn't as good as they've been the past 2 years, but I think last week's game against Florida was enough to show UK what they're up against and should at least put them in the right mindset to take on a team of Alabama's caliber. They were blown out last week, so they may want to swallow their pride and take another shot at it this week.
very possibly the best post i have ever seen on covers...
No offense but you have fallen for as many of these "trap" games as anyone in this forum. Out of the first 4 weeks I know you bet against two of these trap games. You were also critical of the Arizona pick. This might be one of the reasons you talked about not picking games for another month or so. Call it whatever you want but there are proven letdown spots, and proven "trap" games in college football. It has been proven statistically over the years. Keep betting big favorites to cover large spreads in bad spots and see how you come out in the end. I prefer to take the points in most cases...especailly in situations where the big favorite might be prone for a letdown (trap) and the dog has all the motivation in the world.
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Quote Originally Posted by Ice4Blood:
very possibly the best post i have ever seen on covers...
No offense but you have fallen for as many of these "trap" games as anyone in this forum. Out of the first 4 weeks I know you bet against two of these trap games. You were also critical of the Arizona pick. This might be one of the reasons you talked about not picking games for another month or so. Call it whatever you want but there are proven letdown spots, and proven "trap" games in college football. It has been proven statistically over the years. Keep betting big favorites to cover large spreads in bad spots and see how you come out in the end. I prefer to take the points in most cases...especailly in situations where the big favorite might be prone for a letdown (trap) and the dog has all the motivation in the world.
Tress, you've been picking 'em and that's the bottom line. Whatever method to your madness, your success cannot be disputed. I've been following your picks and by and large agree with your assessments, although I had some concerns about USF this week without Grothe. I'm fairly surprised they won, but did not play the game. Speaking of USF, they travel to Syracuse this week as about a 7 point fav'. I live in the Tampa bay area and cannot ever remember in all my other travels and places I've lived, a team printing T-shirts off a regular season win. USF did, score and all (17-7). They are calling this win the biggest in school history. I thought the win over West Virginia on national TV 2 years ago was pretty big. No t-shirts then. Have to take a look at Syracuse this week. The way they are celebrating down here, this has letdown written all over it. Thoughts?
"I'm afraid all we may have done is awakened a sleeping giant."
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Tress, you've been picking 'em and that's the bottom line. Whatever method to your madness, your success cannot be disputed. I've been following your picks and by and large agree with your assessments, although I had some concerns about USF this week without Grothe. I'm fairly surprised they won, but did not play the game. Speaking of USF, they travel to Syracuse this week as about a 7 point fav'. I live in the Tampa bay area and cannot ever remember in all my other travels and places I've lived, a team printing T-shirts off a regular season win. USF did, score and all (17-7). They are calling this win the biggest in school history. I thought the win over West Virginia on national TV 2 years ago was pretty big. No t-shirts then. Have to take a look at Syracuse this week. The way they are celebrating down here, this has letdown written all over it. Thoughts?
Tress, you've been picking 'em and that's the bottom line. Whatever method to your madness, your success cannot be disputed. I've been following your picks and by and large agree with your assessments, although I had some concerns about USF this week without Grothe. I'm fairly surprised they won, but did not play the game. Speaking of USF, they travel to Syracuse this week as about a 7 point fav'. I live in the Tampa bay area and cannot ever remember in all my other travels and places I've lived, a team printing T-shirts off a regular season win. USF did, score and all (17-7). They are calling this win the biggest in school history. I thought the win over West Virginia on national TV 2 years ago was pretty big. No t-shirts then. Have to take a look at Syracuse this week. The way they are celebrating down here, this has letdown written all over it. Thoughts?
It was the biggest win for them because of what it will do for recruiting, and that's the bottom line. Wins are always nice but when you are at the bottom of the pile a win like that brings in-state recruits that you might not ever had a chance at.
I also think that this is actually a good spot for USF. I think many teams would have a let down but IMO USF understands what's at stake. They didn't win at Florida St...they absolutely butt-fucked the seminoles. This team hits as hard as any team in the country and has scary speed. I think USF will win this game going away, however I'm not into laying road-chalk. I still might make a play on them but only time will tell...as of now it's a no play.
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Quote Originally Posted by mrusso:
Tress, you've been picking 'em and that's the bottom line. Whatever method to your madness, your success cannot be disputed. I've been following your picks and by and large agree with your assessments, although I had some concerns about USF this week without Grothe. I'm fairly surprised they won, but did not play the game. Speaking of USF, they travel to Syracuse this week as about a 7 point fav'. I live in the Tampa bay area and cannot ever remember in all my other travels and places I've lived, a team printing T-shirts off a regular season win. USF did, score and all (17-7). They are calling this win the biggest in school history. I thought the win over West Virginia on national TV 2 years ago was pretty big. No t-shirts then. Have to take a look at Syracuse this week. The way they are celebrating down here, this has letdown written all over it. Thoughts?
It was the biggest win for them because of what it will do for recruiting, and that's the bottom line. Wins are always nice but when you are at the bottom of the pile a win like that brings in-state recruits that you might not ever had a chance at.
I also think that this is actually a good spot for USF. I think many teams would have a let down but IMO USF understands what's at stake. They didn't win at Florida St...they absolutely butt-fucked the seminoles. This team hits as hard as any team in the country and has scary speed. I think USF will win this game going away, however I'm not into laying road-chalk. I still might make a play on them but only time will tell...as of now it's a no play.
I just wish you'd concentrate on contributing more game discussions rather than what side of a 50/50 gamble is the one to be weary of. No disrespect whatsoever, I just think there is way too much of this "trap" garbage on Covers, and it misleads people into thinking Vegas is playing mind games, or keeping secrets from them.
Like I said, focus more on the football discussion rather than how Vegas is trying to lure you to one side. If they want your money on a particular side, they'll adjust the line in order to do so.
too good not to repost!
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Quote Originally Posted by jkochvar:
I just wish you'd concentrate on contributing more game discussions rather than what side of a 50/50 gamble is the one to be weary of. No disrespect whatsoever, I just think there is way too much of this "trap" garbage on Covers, and it misleads people into thinking Vegas is playing mind games, or keeping secrets from them.
Like I said, focus more on the football discussion rather than how Vegas is trying to lure you to one side. If they want your money on a particular side, they'll adjust the line in order to do so.
JT... i never said i didn't like the Arizona pick... i posted on many threads i thought Arizona was the right side... i only said it doesn't fit the qualifications of a so-called "trap bet"...
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JT... i never said i didn't like the Arizona pick... i posted on many threads i thought Arizona was the right side... i only said it doesn't fit the qualifications of a so-called "trap bet"...
No offense but you have fallen for as many of these "trap" games as anyone in this forum. Out of the first 4 weeks I know you bet against two of these trap games. You were also critical of the Arizona pick. This might be one of the reasons you talked about not picking games for another month or so. Call it whatever you want but there are proven letdown spots, and proven "trap" games in college football. It has been proven statistically over the years. Keep betting big favorites to cover large spreads in bad spots and see how you come out in the end. I prefer to take the points in most cases...especailly in situations where the big favorite might be prone for a letdown (trap) and the dog has all the motivation in the world.
Couldn't have said it better. The action on most games is not 50/50. Ever notice how most will be one one side yet line doesn't move? If they want 50/50 they will move the line to get split action. If not they will keep it where it is and hope most take the favorite. They know early in the week whats the smart play as the sharps are betting certain games big holding the line steady against the public.
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Quote Originally Posted by Jim_Tressel:
No offense but you have fallen for as many of these "trap" games as anyone in this forum. Out of the first 4 weeks I know you bet against two of these trap games. You were also critical of the Arizona pick. This might be one of the reasons you talked about not picking games for another month or so. Call it whatever you want but there are proven letdown spots, and proven "trap" games in college football. It has been proven statistically over the years. Keep betting big favorites to cover large spreads in bad spots and see how you come out in the end. I prefer to take the points in most cases...especailly in situations where the big favorite might be prone for a letdown (trap) and the dog has all the motivation in the world.
Couldn't have said it better. The action on most games is not 50/50. Ever notice how most will be one one side yet line doesn't move? If they want 50/50 they will move the line to get split action. If not they will keep it where it is and hope most take the favorite. They know early in the week whats the smart play as the sharps are betting certain games big holding the line steady against the public.
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GL fellas
good shit coach
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