Biggest Trap Game

in terms of the betting percentages that are released, what you should expect on a properly set line is to see 60% on the favorite and 40% on the dog... that means the books set a good line, and are taking roughly 50/50 action in terms of the actual money wagered...

The words of a loser.

Once again, I never said the games get 50/50 attention, and I've even said they rarely do.  It is the INTENTION that the line will get equal looks.  They can't predict millions of people's decisions, they can only gauge the public's perception and what they may wager on.

And another point that I've already made that you must have overlooked is that the initial line has to be Vegas' best shot because they only have a few points to move the line in either direction before they open themselves up for exposure that includes "middling."

I never disagreed that there can be so-called letdown spots, but those are all objective decisions that are strictly opinions.  Not everyone sees these from the same perspective.  Calling a game a "trap" makes it appear that Vegas has only given you one option to place your wager on.  It is up to you to decide whether you want the points, or want to give them up.  This is where the coin-flip odds exist.  The process of deciding which side of the play you prefer isn't called "uncovering a trap game," it's simply called HANDICAPPING.

All you are doing is arguing the definition of trap game which is a waste of time in the first place. You being annoyed with people talking about trap games is like me being annoyed with you. It is pointless and will never go anywhere because all you are arguing is that a trap game means vegas is trying to get over on the public by setting a spread a certian way. However, vegas does not need to set any traps for the public as the public creates them for themselves as they are often wrong. Which has been the case of betting on or against florida st the past two weeks. When I talk about a trap game I am speaking of a game that a team is set up for a letdown and is therefore a trap for them to lose. It just so happens that many times there are these so called trap games for a team the cattle are riding them hard all the way to the slaughter house! And I do not think I am outsmarting vegas in any way. I put my money on vegas bud as I take action. I watch the cattle get lucky some weeks as in the case of the Bears in the NFL this week and get slaughtered other weeks which hopefully will the the case this Sunday. And for you to say its a 50/50 proposition for either team to cover Florida -1 vs Idaho St diminshes any credentials you have. Which after looking at your handicapping history isn't much experience.

i agree... but you are barking up the wrong tree around here... i've said this many times...

Quote Originally Posted by jkochvar:

You must be an inexperienced gambler to believe "trap" games exist, coach.  To say one side is a trap is to say the other side is the "smart" play, the lock, or the guarantee.

 

No matter how many times you break it down for the clueless ones, you still don't get it.  The set lines are merely the sportsbooks' attempt to get as much money as possible on BOTH sides.  Nobody, not even Vegas can predict the true outcome of a game.  The lines are strictly a number in which bettors have a 50/50 chance of landing on either side, regardless of the number, and the talent of each team in the matchup.  If you posted Florida as a 1 point favorite against Idaho St., you'd still have a 50% chance of hitting either side.  Running a sportsbook, or any casino game is simply using statistics in your favor for profit.

 

If it was so easy to identify a "trap" situation, then you'd be throwing your bankroll on the other side of the so-called trap, and reaping the benefits at an overwhelming rate.  In examining your thread, I still see no sides in which you clearly identify as the "correct" side to be on, nor do you use consistent reasoning as to why a game is a "trap."  This is a tired and exhausted theory that clueless gamblers discuss when they think they have Vegas figured out.

 

You post great stuff, coach, I just wish you'd concentrate on contributing more game discussions rather than what side of a 50/50 gamble is the one to be weary of.  No disrespect whatsoever, I just think there is way too much of this "trap" garbage on Covers, and it misleads people into thinking Vegas is playing mind games, or keeping secrets from them.

 

Like I said, focus more on the football discussion rather than how Vegas is trying to lure you to one side.  If they want your money on a particular side, they'll adjust the line in order to do so.

 

GL fellas

you obviously have not betting long. if you're telling me vegas does not know who will cover and are not setting their lines accordingly then you, sir, are the inexperienced one.