What am I missing? there seems to be a lot of arguement over nothing. This is my Square Opinion
Traps are a figment or byproduct of Publicity and Perception. The ideology is real, but the term is misleading for some and for gamblers it sucks. Honestly no one wants to bet on a trap game...if you lose...then YOU/I am the one that got trapped. (how degrading?)
Me personally, I believe in Vegas giving into the public perception. John Q Public is a sheep. John Q Public are the 6 cars lined behind each other at a stop light on a 4 lane road. Humans naturally dont like to go out on limbs, so they stick with whats popular. This is a supporting reason to why Vegas loves the Big Brother game in the 8pm slot...might as well be Hawaii at 11pm or Gonzaga at 11:30.
I.E.: ND @ MichSt & USC @ WashSt & PennSt vs Iowa. These 3 teams are great examples of the EVERYONE saying..."well they have to cover at some point." Sharp or Square, the thought is the same. The difference is:
The Square says, "Its gotta be today, no matter what."
The Sharp says, "The line looks to high for me and my research, today is not the day."
As we all know, Notre Dame sees more action, soely because they are THE IRISH, than they should. For some reason everyone wants their 1.5% Irish Heritage to shine on Saturday. Its like bein Italian in New Jersey or Jewish in the Bronx or Gay in SanFran. People are just proud. Vegas is aware of this.
Vegas is continually looking for 50/50 money......NOT 50/50 tickets punched. Vegas set the Purdue/ND line around 7. It should be known that at a neutral site (in a vacuum) this game is around 7. It was obviously at Purdue so the line should have been at 4. But ND -4 would get too much attention. Sharps would love it and the Squares would too (80% tickets, 65% Money). There is just too much American blood all over ND to begin with, so they had to push the line up to -7. The Squares didnt care. But the Sharps knew better (65% tickets, 50% money).
USC: Loved by all. They are supposed to be head and sholders above everyone in the country. Vegas always has to turn a -10pt line into -13 in hopes of getting even money.
If the public is pounding Team A, why isnt the line moving?
Sept 12th: USC @ Ohio St... The public was having kittens trying to get money on USC. 68% of the public was on it once it hit 6.5. I know the line opened at 4.5, but that was quickly bought up (on a Monday mind you) by sharp money, closed for a day and opened again at 6.5. public killed it, KILLED IT, and it only went to 7. for arguments sake lets say 70% of the public was on USC with NO LINE MOVEMENT. Simple math Simple answer.
70 squares x $100 = $3,500
30 sharps x $230 = $3,500
Vegas couldnt care less if 70% of the public was on a side, if 30% of the sharp money kept the scale even.
The only way to truely pick these publicly influenced games out is to ask yourself on Friday...."Self, if this game goes from -9 to -12 overnight, would 65% of the action (tickets punched, public) still bet it the favorite?" If the answer is yes, then the line is probably already to high. And you should trust your research, bite the bullet, and vulture that backdoor win.
Side note: Tressel, this is a great Thread. Very thought provoking, and obviously trying to nail down a few games that force everyone to do extra research on is benefical to the site. Thank You.
Very entertaining when someone comes on and says "VATk is the lock of the season." and to posts later "Miami is the lock of the season". Obviously this week 4 game is a good one to stay away from.
no matter what you wanna call these picks 
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