Biggest Trap Game

Jim well done on the South Florida Game as everyone was selling South Florida and buying and the inflated Florida St team that was off a big primetime win over BYU. Jkochvar you couldn't be more wrong! First of all you complete the trap game argument by saying vegas tries to set the line so action is 50/50 on each side. However you fail to realize that not every game is going to have 50/50 action on each side! As in many cases every week the public is heavy on one side! Now a trap game would be when the public is heavily favoring a team that is off a high profile win and the line is inflated to encourage action on the other side. Which is usually where the sharps end up. Which has been the case with Florida St in Back to back weeks. When Florida St was playing BYU they should have been in fact 7.5 favorites and not dawgs as they rolled on BYU. But because guys like yourself try to predict the game going of perception of prior games which often never works! BYU was in fact the favorite because of the win over Oklahoma. Then they following week a much more hungry S Florida team playing in its Super Bowl... playing against a team that did not recruit them as players... dominated a Florida St team that was 14 point favorites. Therefore a trap game is a game in which the line is set with inflated value because of public perception along with other factors also give a team an edge such as emotional angles which often rule in cfb. No doubt teams with less talent win every week and that is why fools like yourself consistently lose in CFB.

Quote Originally Posted by jkochvar:

You must be an inexperienced gambler to believe "trap" games exist, coach.  To say one side is a trap is to say the other side is the "smart" play, the lock, or the guarantee.

 

No matter how many times you break it down for the clueless ones, you still don't get it.  The set lines are merely the sportsbooks' attempt to get as much money as possible on BOTH sides.  Nobody, not even Vegas can predict the true outcome of a game.  The lines are strictly a number in which bettors have a 50/50 chance of landing on either side, regardless of the number, and the talent of each team in the matchup.  If you posted Florida as a 1 point favorite against Idaho St., you'd still have a 50% chance of hitting either side.  Running a sportsbook, or any casino game is simply using statistics in your favor for profit.

 

If it was so easy to identify a "trap" situation, then you'd be throwing your bankroll on the other side of the so-called trap, and reaping the benefits at an overwhelming rate.  In examining your thread, I still see no sides in which you clearly identify as the "correct" side to be on, nor do you use consistent reasoning as to why a game is a "trap."  This is a tired and exhausted theory that clueless gamblers discuss when they think they have Vegas figured out.

 

You post great stuff, coach, I just wish you'd concentrate on contributing more game discussions rather than what side of a 50/50 gamble is the one to be weary of.  No disrespect whatsoever, I just think there is way too much of this "trap" garbage on Covers, and it misleads people into thinking Vegas is playing mind games, or keeping secrets from them.

 

Like I said, focus more on the football discussion rather than how Vegas is trying to lure you to one side.  If they want your money on a particular side, they'll adjust the line in order to do so.

 

GL fellas

Jim well done on the South Florida Game as everyone was selling South Florida and buying and the inflated Florida St team that was off a big primetime win over BYU. Jkochvar you couldn't be more wrong! First of all you complete the trap game argument by saying vegas tries to set the line so action is 50/50 on each side. However you fail to realize that not every game is going to have 50/50 action on each side! As in many cases every week the public is heavy on one side! Now a trap game would be when the public is heavily favoring a team that is off a high profile win and the line is inflated to encourage action on the other side. Which is usually where the sharps end up. Which has been the case with Florida St in Back to back weeks. When Florida St was playing BYU they should have been in fact 7.5 favorites and not dawgs as they rolled on BYU. But because guys like yourself try to predict the game going of perception of prior games which often never works! BYU was in fact the favorite because of the win over Oklahoma. Then they following week a much more hungry S Florida team playing in its Super Bowl... playing against a team that did not recruit them as players... dominated a Florida St team that was 14 point favorites. Therefore a trap game is a game in which the line is set with inflated value because of public perception along with other factors also give a team an edge such as emotional angles which often rule in cfb. No doubt teams with less talent win every week and that is why fools like yourself consistently lose in CFB.

Quote Originally Posted by jkochvar:

You must be an inexperienced gambler to believe "trap" games exist, coach.  To say one side is a trap is to say the other side is the "smart" play, the lock, or the guarantee.

 

No matter how many times you break it down for the clueless ones, you still don't get it.  The set lines are merely the sportsbooks' attempt to get as much money as possible on BOTH sides.  Nobody, not even Vegas can predict the true outcome of a game.  The lines are strictly a number in which bettors have a 50/50 chance of landing on either side, regardless of the number, and the talent of each team in the matchup.  If you posted Florida as a 1 point favorite against Idaho St., you'd still have a 50% chance of hitting either side.  Running a sportsbook, or any casino game is simply using statistics in your favor for profit.

 

If it was so easy to identify a "trap" situation, then you'd be throwing your bankroll on the other side of the so-called trap, and reaping the benefits at an overwhelming rate.  In examining your thread, I still see no sides in which you clearly identify as the "correct" side to be on, nor do you use consistent reasoning as to why a game is a "trap."  This is a tired and exhausted theory that clueless gamblers discuss when they think they have Vegas figured out.

 

You post great stuff, coach, I just wish you'd concentrate on contributing more game discussions rather than what side of a 50/50 gamble is the one to be weary of.  No disrespect whatsoever, I just think there is way too much of this "trap" garbage on Covers, and it misleads people into thinking Vegas is playing mind games, or keeping secrets from them.

 

Like I said, focus more on the football discussion rather than how Vegas is trying to lure you to one side.  If they want your money on a particular side, they'll adjust the line in order to do so.

 

GL fellas