"Big Dogs That Died On Gameday"

Just an observation that I'd love to hear others feedback on, but it's too consistent to be coincidental. In these recent CFB Bowl games, I found (from painful experience) that betting the early line on larger underdog teams seems to come back to haunt. Example; yesterday I had Michigan State +8.5 (early line bet) and felt pretty fking good about it, but noticed that the Spartans on gameday were getting 10.5. They were demolished by Saban's mercenaries and I have to say I was a bit shocked, not at the loss, but the voracity of the loss. Today I had my azz handed to me once again by Northwestern, who were annihilated by Tennessee 45-6. Again, I noticed the line I received as an early play of 7.5 had escalated to 9.5 on gameday. Now tomorrow I have Kansas State + 11 (again from an early line) and the line is now 12.5 to 13 depending on where you go. I'm thinking if all goes according to plan, K State should be blown out as well. I'm very aware of line moves and the pros and cons of early wagering, but over the years, this particular situation seems to be different. There seems to be no reactionary moves to the lines (injuries, coaching changes, player suspensions etc.), these all seem to be fairly large line moves for no apparent reason other than a specific wagering oddity. I know all about public betting, sharps betting, wiseguys and Vegas money moving and this situation seems to be a different animal and apparently very predictable ( if there is such a thing in sports betting). So, to sum it up, if I take early action on larger underdogs (lets say for arguments sake +8 and up lines) I'm probably doomed to failure because  these last minute/day line  moves tell me that if these moves happen, the underdog will not only lose, but will be "WACKED" like an Italian Mob Boss. That being the case, I'm thinking that since there is no apparent reason for the sharp increase in the line supporting the favorite, the best thing to do is to accept this gift from the "gambling gods" and play the favorite as if  it's the last play I'll ever make. I wanted to share this nugget, because it's so seldom we ever get any "REAL" info that makes a difference in our bottom line at the end of the day. So, I'm saying right now today that I'm betting Arkansas -12.5 for $1500.00 and see if my conclusion holds water. I'm going out on a limb and saying that I guarantee that Arkansas blows out K State for no other reason than these peculiar line moves in similar situations. HOW BOUT THEM APPLES! Let me know what you think guys, I'd love to hear your thoughts. 

I don't think is a good idea to jump on Arkansas based on a line movement of just a couple of games, I think you're over reacting after 2 bad losses. It's OK if you like Arkansas, but taking a decision for something that happen in 2 particular games I guess is just bad handicapping. Although remember that no trend goes for 100% in sports betting, so this "movement" you're talking might go let's say 66.6% on this bowl season and you still be 0-3 on those games. GL thou.

And the verdict is in, as predicted. Remember this day for next years college bowls yo! This sht works!!! 

The final was  22 point difference and although not a "traditional" blowout, in the 4th quarter the "wheels" came off the K=State wagon and I'm convinced beyond a shadow of a doubt that this view of favorites presents itself each college bowl season and without failure the heavy favorite with the largest move in the final 24-48 hours covers the number. Food for thought guys, I'm sold and paid!

Interesting...would be curious to see how this theory tested during the regular season