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Air Force ignorance...

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Posted: #26
Laroja - Great input.  Thanks.

David - So Jimmy mentioned those 4 teams.  After playing the first 3, SDST still gave up over 400+ rushing yds to Army.  I don't think that's really "catching on."
 
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Posted: #27
Army did well against them yes, and i'm not disputing that AF will run all over them too. They probably will, but SDSU has a future NFL RB Ronnie Hillman whose a complete stud. He'll get his chance tonight to run against the worst run defense in the nation. Hillman will shred this AF defense... flat out run all over them. 

At the end of the day it comes down to this. How on earth can you lay 7 points with the worst rushing defense in the nation? 
 
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Posted: #28
good luck david. sdsu +7 all day 
 
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Posted: #29
 
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Posted: #30
I hope you're not betting because of the "worst rushing defense" stat.  Like I said earlier, they've played different teams so that stat is irrelevant.
 
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Posted: #31
Stats are def relevant here. I just think that SDST will outscore Air force and have a good chance of winning the game straight up. Although Air Force will run the ball and try to control the clock, this SDST team will be able to score in the aerial attack and the rushing attack via QB Lindley and stout RB Hillman. Although SDST has been quite weak against the run as of late, they play NAVY, Air Force and Army every single year and are very familiar with the triple option. I would lean towards SDST and the points.
 
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Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by icpa:

I hope you're not betting because of the "worst rushing defense" stat.  Like I said earlier, they've played different teams so that stat is irrelevant.

That's part of the reason i'm betting it yes. How can you say that stat is irrelevant. By that logic can you say Air Force has a better run defense than Alabama?

How else would you measure quality of run defense?
 
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Posted: #33
Icpa, i'll break it down a little more for you... 

Air Force allowed the following yards rushing... 

Allowed 184 to South Dakota 

Allowed 204 to TCU

Allowed 188 to Tennessee State 

Allowed 334 to Navy

Allowed 266 to Notre Dame

that is a horrid, horrid, horrid run defense and in no way is that irrelevant. 

 
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Posted: #34
I think it somewhat has to do how army moved the ball all over SDSU, lines makers thinking air force is much better than the cadets
 
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Posted: #35
Gotta get back to work soon.  Loved the conversation.  In no way did I say AF has a better rush defense than Bama.  You can look at the quality of players, their style of defense, efficiency at creating turnovers, etc.  That's how I measure a good defense.  Not stats against various teams. 
 
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Posted: #36
Army ran for like 400 yards vs SDSU, so I think they feel Airforce will have similiar success, control clock, tempo, sdsu turnovers, air force win by more than 10 imo. gl
 
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Posted: #37
Thanks for all the input.  That's what a good forum should be like.  Wouldn't mind hearing your opinion on any other games this week that you like.  Good luck bro.  (except for today )
 
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Posted: #38
David made some great points here and as much as I want to lay the wood with AF, I havent placed my bet yet because I don't trust their defense. This game could become a shootout if neither team can stop the other. I think SDSU has been a bit of a disppointment this year; their offense seems to move the ball well between the 20s but shoots itself in the foot with turnovers. There is a familiarity with these teams and I agree with David, it isn't as easy as taking AF just because it is perceived they will run all over SDSU. This is not an easy game to handicap.
 
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Posted: #39
Air Force played Notre Dame last week. They ran 60 times at 6.1 per carry. An amazing 363 yards. Possession times was 5 minutes more the Notre Dame.  They lost by 26 points. 

Air Force gives up 34.4 points a game
San Diego State gives up 24 points a game

They both played TCU at home. Similar outcomes with Air Force giving up 8 more points than SDSU. 

From one angle Air Force looks great but Stats are deceiving on this one.




 
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Posted: #40

SD ST has already seen the triple option 2 times THIS SEASON...

AF has beat Navy and 2 D-3 schools....

SD ST hung in well with Michigan at Michigan and held them to 28...SD ST should have beat TCU if not for 2 HUGE turnovers deep in TCU zone....

But, most importantly, even if AF does run for say 400+ yards and score, what does that do for the fact that they wont be able to stop SD ST on defense???

To think AF will win this game by over a TD doesnt make sense at all.

The funniest part about all of this is...for as much as everybody is saying how bad SD ST is against the run 114th....guess what??? AF IS WORSE AGAINST THE RUN!!!!

Dont understand how that theory favors AF....

SD beat a good Wash St team, hung in very well at Michigan, and played TCU much, much better than AF did....

SD will cover the 7 and probably win the game

 

Love the play David

 
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Posted: #41

I watched that ND/Air Force game. Other than some bonehead plays Calhoun called, AF was physically dominated. But losing their top RB Ashford Clark early in the game didn't help.. They are a small team overall. The Aztecs don't impress me at all. AF has some speed. If Clark can play tonight, it will be all AF

 
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Posted: #42

AIRFC are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 conference games.

San Diego State Aztecs 7-1 ATS in their last 8 conference games.

 

Im taking SDST.......

 
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Posted: #43
Quote Originally Posted by lonelycoyote:

I watched that ND/Air Force game. Other than some bonehead plays Calhoun called, AF was physically dominated. But losing their top RB Ashford Clark early in the game didn't help.. They are a small team overall. The Aztecs don't impress me at all. AF has some speed. If Clark can play tonight, it will be all AF



Ashford Clark doesn't exists.
 
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Posted: #44

Quote Originally Posted by Laroja:



Ashford Clark doesn't exists.

 

 

lmao

 
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Posted: #45
Quote Originally Posted by winner005:

AIRFC are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 conference games.

San Diego State Aztecs 7-1 ATS in their last 8 conference games.

 

Im taking SDST.......



So what?  I can find a bunch of these.

Aztecs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.

Falcons are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.

Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games.
 
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Posted: #46

I think that conference stats are more meaningful since those happen every year...

 

Falcons could be 5-1 in their last 6 game as a favorite of 3.5-10, but those 6 games could have been 6 years ago....

They could have not played a Thursday game in 10 years....

The conference stats of 7-1 and 1-7 were last year and this year

 
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Posted: #47
Quote Originally Posted by winner005:

 

 

lmao



I'm serious lol. I tried looking him up but apparently I can't find him.
 
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Posted: #48
SDST # 117 in run defense, AF # 2 IN RUN OFFENSE. I dont know much about foot ball but there is a 115 position differential mmmmmm
 
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Posted: #49

Quote Originally Posted by vibo:

SDST # 117 in run defense, AF # 2 IN RUN OFFENSE. I dont know much about foot ball but there is a 115 position differential mmmmmm

 

 

Just so you know....AF is WORSE agaisnt the run than SD....

SD is 114....AF is 117

AF beat Navy by 1 and 2 d-3 schools

I will take a touchdown and a team that beat Wash St and hung well against Michigan

 
 
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Posted: #50
Plus, this is the 3rd time this season already SD ST will face the triple option
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