2026 Week 0 Ponderings

We are four weeks out from the start of the 2026 season. Let's talk some football! For me, these first eight games are all about gathering intel for future opportunities. Here are the current lines with the home teams in CAPS:

Tcu -7 North Carolina - This game is being played across the pond in Ireland, and Bill Belichick will be looking to avenge last year's 48-14 beatdown in Chapel Hill. Both teams have new offensive coordinators, but Belichick's hire of Bobby Petrino is particularly intriguing. I'm not a big fan of Petrino, but the dude knows a thing or two about offense. In last year's meeting the Frogs outgained the Heels 542 total yards to 222. In addition to having a new OC, TCU will also be breaking in a new QB. I think Carolina will be improved, but have they improved enough to cover this number? 

USC -38' San Jose St. - The Trojans don't figure to be seriously tested here or the following two weeks, but circle that Week Three road trip to Rutgers on September 19th. Under Lincoln Riley USC is a pathetic 3-15 ATS as road chalk, including 0-13 outside the state of California. Also, there's a good chance they'll be looking ahead to a huge game vs. Oregon in Week Four.

VIRGINIA -5' NC State - Miami is the overwhelming favorite to win the ACC, but these two teams will be in the mix to play for the title. Cavs HC Tony Elliott is 0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS vs. the Wolfpack.

NORTH DAKOTA ST. -7' Jacksonville St. - The Bison are one of two teams making the jump from the FCS level. Over the last ten years they're an amazing 80-6 at home, but they're laying a big number here. Maybe too big. The Gamecocks can play a little.

EASTERN MICHIGAN -8' Sacramento St. - Sac St. is the other FBS newbie and look to be in for a rough first season playing with the big boys. The Emus are a team to keep an eye on this season. Looking ahead, they host San Jose the following week, with the Spartans making a long road trip on a short week, following what figures to be a brutal beatdown at USC. 

STANFORD -4 Hawaii - The Cardinal will be out to avenge last year's 23-20 loss on the islands, and have a brand new coaching staff with more experience and stability than last season. They better take care of biz at home because the road schedule is brutal......again. The Rainbow Warriors return plenty of firepower and seem to be on the right track under Timmy Chang.

FLORIDA ST. -30' New Mexico St. - The 'Noles just wanna get out of this game healthy with SMU on deck. They probably won't show much in this one and probably won't need to.

UNLV -5' Memphis - The Tigers have a whole new coaching staff and a rebuilt roster as Charles Huff comes over from Southern Miss, and brings 17 Golden Eagles players with him. It's Year Two for Dan Mullen with the Rebels, who welcome high upside transfer QB Jackson Arnold to the fold. This is a long road trip and a late start for Memphis.

Well there you have it. All comments are welcome but let's keep it civil people. We all have the same goal and that's to beat the books. 

Nice write ups 

TCU vs UNC, I really like TCUs new QB, he is an ivy league QB and set the school record for passing, i like smart QBs

UNC, im not enthused about the teams improvement, but new QB edwards has a nice arm and not afraid to throw in tight windows, but did not play much LY. unc still not sure who will start and edwards was not in for spring

i still like TCU alot

UNLV vs Memphis :

MeM coach took a low level team to 7-6 LY, and brought some of those guys to Memphis, but that was in the sun belt, they dropped alot in Phil Steeles power rankings

UNLV just reloaded, they remains the same , at week 1, UNLV seems more ready , cant see them losing this game. thats what we should be talking about, who wins, the spread moving does  matter here, UNLV covered a lot of games LY

I like UNLV 

@FloatinPicks

 I won't be getting involved in either game. Belichick was one of the all time best coaches in the NFL, but the jury is still out as to whether he succeeds at the college level. I think their defense could be pretty decent, and Bobby Petrino has a solid track record as an offensive coach. Thing is, we don't really know what to expect until these teams play a game or two. That's pretty much par for the course in Weeks 0 and 1. I wouldn't be shocked at either another Frogs blowout win or an upset by the Heels. 

UNLV was initially a 2' point favorite and now it's up to 5'. The Rebels look like the right side, but I liked it better at 2'. 

The two teams I'm most interested in watching are NDSt and Sac St. I think the Bison could have their hands full with Jax St. but it's hard to say how the new kids on the FBS block will handle the move up from the FCS level. 

BOL on your plays! 

 i like ndsu's secondary, and they are a hard nose team

STanford vs Hawaii , this might be the only game they cover this yearas a fave 

I think Hawaii can hang around, at least for a while. Timmy Chang has done a solid job and I like QB Micah Alejado. Stan has a new coaching staff but there's no question they have the better athletes. They NEED to win this game as their road schedule is brutal, with five games in the eastern time zone.

I could maybe see UVA laying 2.5 in that game. Can’t figure out why it’s 5 or even 5.5.

QB and HC are advantages for NCST. 
is the rest of the roster on UVA that much better ?

Except for the loss to Duke in the ACC title game the Cavs had a great season last year, which might partially explain the line being where it's at, plus they're playing at home. Also, Virginia would seem to have an advantage in the trenches, especially on the offensive line, and according to Phil Steele they have a huge special teams advantage.

i dont know Mr. Boise, i smell something fishy. i watched LYs game, and ncst brought the noise, and nc st bringing back the QB and other bigtime starters. LY Vir was special, we dont know this new VIR team

we just might be looking at a ML dog?

@FloatinPicks

 Very possible. As I noted on my initial post HC Elliott is 0-2 SU vs. the Pack, but it's a small sample size. I certainly wasn't endorsing a play on the Cavs but I can see why Vegas set the line where they did. Of all the games played in Week 0 this one has the greatest level of importance, with it being a conference game and with both teams among several that have a shot at playing for the ACC title. 

I hope this doesn't move the number , but NC st is 6-2 ATS   vs. VIR

The teams have only met twice with the current coaches so I wouldn't put much stock in that stat. I'm not trying to talk you out of a play if you really like it, but I wouldn't underestimate the Cavs. They've gotten better each year under Elliott. I'll also point out that NC State was 0-4 as a road dog a year ago. Bottom line, I think Vegas set a fair line in this game. BOL if you play it. 

@Boisestateand8

 Good to see you again, look forward to discussion this season. My first log in on here since the superbowl, glad to see you're here 

@MatthewJL46 

 @Yanasaur 

Nice write  up & thoughts on your part , any intel on your Boise state team that sorta regressed last season and USC & Florida state are laying large numbers,  I have to find out more about San Jose & New Mexico states returning starters & staff & did Bill belicheck add enough from the portal to get more competitive, IDK 

@ULLafayettekid

 I don't really have much to share about BSU at this point, but they'll only go as far as QB Maddux Madson can take them. He didn't play as well last season as he did the year before, and missed a couple of games due to injuries. They've got a tall task ahead of them in their season opener at Eugene. They gave the Ducks all they could handle two years ago, but because of the NIL/transfer portal era the gap between Power Four teams and the group of six is wider than ever. 

Florida St. has a huge ACC game with SMU on deck, so they may call the dogs off early against New Mexico St. IF they get a big lead. It could just as easily be a blowout win.

USC opened as a 35' point favorite against San Jose and now it's up to 38'. The Trojans COULD have that covered by halftime, but it's too many points for me. The Spartans have completely overhauled their roster and coaching staff, and return just three starters from a season ago. I have no idea what to expect from them starting out. 

I really don't have anything more to add on North Carolina, other than what I've already posted. But I will say that weird shit sometimes happens in these international games. Some teams handle the long travel better than others do.

There's really nothing that trips my trigger in this first weekend of games, and I'll be treading carefully the following week. We won't really know anything until we see these teams play a game or two. BOL 

@Boisestateand8

 Thanks for the reply & I’m not high on Boise QB , he let me down last season in the season opener vs south Florida, the duel threat QB green , who transferred out was there last best starter, didn’t know San Jose only had 3 returning staters , USC coach Lincoln loves to run it up , but 38 is all most 6 TDs , great point on the international games in Dublin, and Bill hired Bobby petrino to be his OC , maybe his addition keeps the team close , more research needed on New Mexico State, yet Florida state seems to blow out cup cake teams beating gambling 76-0 and Kent state 66-10 or something like that  last season 

To further elaborate on the talent gap between the Power Four teams and the teams from the Group of six, according to ESPN's returning production rankings (RPR) all but four P4 teams are ranked in the top 100 in the RPR. Of those four teams North Carolina is the only team playing in Week 0. Conversely, there are only ten G6 teams ranked in the top 50! Two of those, Eastern Michigan and Jax St., play on the opening weekend. EMU, at #24 would appear to have a huge advantage over Sacramento St. which is ranked 131st while making the FCS to FBS jump. Of course the line reflects that disparity. Week One will feature two games with teams that will already have a game under their belts; San Jose St.-EMU and UNLV-Hawaii. More on those games and others in a later thread.

ONE WEEK TO GO boys and girls, and I feel like a little kid on Christmas Eve waiting for Santa Claus to come! Seems like I usually dig myself a hole during the first two weeks of the season, so I'm treading lightly. Below are the opening and current lines for the eight games on tap for Week 0, and every game is worth paying attention to.

Tcu -7' (up from -6') North Carolina - I don't have much to add from my first post, but it's worth noting that in the last six games played in Ireland the underdog has gone 4-1-1 ATS with four outright wins, and every game except Notre Dame's blowout win over Navy has been decided by three points or less! With that in mind laying seven and a hook seems like risky business. 

USC -38' (up from -35') San Jose St. - The Spartans are in complete rebuild mode. HC Ken Niumatalolo has a proven track record, but with new coordinators, new assistants and just two returning starters, this looks to be a long season. Still, the Trojans could win by say, 52-14, which would be impressive but it wouldn't cover the current number.

VIRGINIA -5' (up from -3) NC State - This game was originally scheduled to be played in Brazil, hence the low opening number. Cavs QB Chandler Morris will be tough to replace, but transfers Beau Pribula and Eli Holstein are both capable. Both of these teams would appear to be in the mix for the ACC title. Tough call.

NORTH DAKOTA ST -6' (down from -10) Jacksonville St. - Big line drop in this game. I know the Bison are making the jump from the FCS level, but it appears the bettors are totally ignoring their 80-6 home record over the last ten years. 

EASTERN MICHIGAN -8' Sacramento St. -  This line hasn't moved since the opener. The Hornets are a team in transition, making a long road trip, and seem ill prepared to make the FCS-FBS jump. QB Noah Kim returns for a 7TH YEAR with the Emus, and this looks like Chris Creighton's best team since 2022.

FLORIDA ST. -31' (up from -28') New Mexico St. - The gap between the Power Four and Group of Six has never been wider, thanks to NIL and the transfer portal, but it's difficult to trust the Seminoles laying such a big number, especially with a massive ACC showdown with SMU on deck. 

STANFORD -5' (up from -3) Hawaii - Both teams have conference games on deck for next week, so this game is all about gathering Intel. The Rainbow Warriors have a lot of new faces on the roster, but HC Timmy Chang has done a solid job and QB Micah Alejado will keep them in any game on the schedule. The Cardinal have 14 returning starters but also have a brand new coaching staff. This should be just as entertaining as last season's nail biter on the islands.

UNLV -5' (up from -3) Memphis - This is an elimination game of sorts for the Group of Six playoff berth, and there are a lot of new faces on both sides. The Tigers also have a new coaching staff and are making a long road trip with a late start time, which explains the line move. HC Dan Mullen had a good first season with the Rebels, going 10-4, but they were just 5-9 ITS (in the stats), meaning they weren't as good as their record. They have a big game at Hawaii next week.

LET'S GOOOOOOOO!

Reading this… I’d think you could tease eastern mich… and do several 2 team teasers…. Eastern mich seems solid… esp at -2.5.  

EMU is now up to -9'. Good to see you back! BOL this year.

@Boisestateand8

 Thanks for the intel and updates great and much needed info  yes the underdogs have did great in Dublin and I need to do more research,  just hard to get 48-14 beat down Bill took after NC scored on the opening drive , will USC and Florida state have enough defense to cover 5 and 6 touchdowns  well that remains to be seen, we will find out this weekend 

@Mskeets

 Teasers are a losing proposition over time-especially college

@Harvey23

 Gambling has been a losing proposition for me… but in this situation… with eastern mich having decent tradition… and having one of their better teams… this seems like a good option… I just looked at them on FD… -2.5 is -340 now…  if for some crazy reason they win by a field goal… since today they have point differential as opposed to 7 point teasers… I might add eastern mich -2.5…. To any wager I have ….  My 2 cents…. And I do NOT… win at this.   Up 100 though on football season … one wager… watching Cleveland last night… I’m predicting they will have a poor season…. QB controversy … now…. And neither is top tier…. I see flip/flop/flip…ish… I bet against Cleveland last night… and they looked awful.      I’m adding east Michu-2.5… to pretty much anything I play next weekend.