We are four weeks out from the start of the 2026 season. Let's talk some football! For me, these first eight games are all about gathering intel for future opportunities. Here are the current lines with the home teams in CAPS:
Tcu -7 North Carolina - This game is being played across the pond in Ireland, and Bill Belichick will be looking to avenge last year's 48-14 beatdown in Chapel Hill. Both teams have new offensive coordinators, but Belichick's hire of Bobby Petrino is particularly intriguing. I'm not a big fan of Petrino, but the dude knows a thing or two about offense. In last year's meeting the Frogs outgained the Heels 542 total yards to 222. In addition to having a new OC, TCU will also be breaking in a new QB. I think Carolina will be improved, but have they improved enough to cover this number?
USC -38' San Jose St. - The Trojans don't figure to be seriously tested here or the following two weeks, but circle that Week Three road trip to Rutgers on September 19th. Under Lincoln Riley USC is a pathetic 3-15 ATS as road chalk, including 0-13 outside the state of California. Also, there's a good chance they'll be looking ahead to a huge game vs. Oregon in Week Four.
VIRGINIA -5' NC State - Miami is the overwhelming favorite to win the ACC, but these two teams will be in the mix to play for the title. Cavs HC Tony Elliott is 0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS vs. the Wolfpack.
NORTH DAKOTA ST. -7' Jacksonville St. - The Bison are one of two teams making the jump from the FCS level. Over the last ten years they're an amazing 80-6 at home, but they're laying a big number here. Maybe too big. The Gamecocks can play a little.
EASTERN MICHIGAN -8' Sacramento St. - Sac St. is the other FBS newbie and look to be in for a rough first season playing with the big boys. The Emus are a team to keep an eye on this season. Looking ahead, they host San Jose the following week, with the Spartans making a long road trip on a short week, following what figures to be a brutal beatdown at USC.
STANFORD -4 Hawaii - The Cardinal will be out to avenge last year's 23-20 loss on the islands, and have a brand new coaching staff with more experience and stability than last season. They better take care of biz at home because the road schedule is brutal......again. The Rainbow Warriors return plenty of firepower and seem to be on the right track under Timmy Chang.
FLORIDA ST. -30' New Mexico St. - The 'Noles just wanna get out of this game healthy with SMU on deck. They probably won't show much in this one and probably won't need to.
UNLV -5' Memphis - The Tigers have a whole new coaching staff and a rebuilt roster as Charles Huff comes over from Southern Miss, and brings 17 Golden Eagles players with him. It's Year Two for Dan Mullen with the Rebels, who welcome high upside transfer QB Jackson Arnold to the fold. This is a long road trip and a late start for Memphis.
Well there you have it. All comments are welcome but let's keep it civil people. We all have the same goal and that's to beat the books. 
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