Posted:
#101
TD. Thank you again for all of your work. Quick question on the totals, what is your unit size for each of those please? Thanks again, J
2018 Offseason Stuff
Posted:
#102
Updated:
Week 0/1 plays:
Syracuse -1.5 (2u)Wyoming +1 (1.5u)
Florida State -6 (1u)
Washington / Auburn Under 51 (1u)
Central Florida -16.5 (0.75u) & Connecticut +24 -105 (0.75u)
Old Dominion -5.5 (0.75u)
Central Florida -16.5 (0.75u) & Connecticut +24 -105 (0.75u)
Old Dominion -5.5 (0.75u)
Michigan / Notre Dame Under 48 (0.75u)
Northern Illinois / Iowa Under 51 (0.75u)
Washington +5.5 (0.5u)
Washington +5.5 (0.5u)
Florida Atlantic +24 hook (0.3u)
Texas -7 hook (0.2u)
Louisville +31.5 hook (0.2u)
Texas -7 hook (0.2u)
Louisville +31.5 hook (0.2u)
Ball State -9.5
Villanova +18.5
Iowa State -12
South Dakota State / Iowa State Under 56.5
Florida -33
Louisiana Monroe -11
Stony Brook / Air Force Under 60 & Under 59.5
James Madison +14.5 hook & again +14.5 (no hook this time)
Richmond / Virginia Under 56.5
College Extra Week 1:
Eastern Kentucky -23.5
The Citadel +15 & +14.5
McNeese State PK
New Hampshire / Maine Under 45
New Hampshire -3
GOY Lines:
Mississippi State -3 (1u) (Week 2 at Kansas State on 9/8)
Notre Dame -7 (0.5u) (Week 4 at Wake Forest on 9/22)
Mississippi State +18.5 (0.5u) (Week 11 on 11/10)
Posted:
#104
Quote Originally Posted by TD21:
Opening Totals locked in this afternoon:
Washington / Auburn Under 51
Northern Illinois / Iowa Under 51
Michigan / Notre Dame Under 48
TD , Nice Work on that Mich / ND total . BOL just dropped it to 46'
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
Posted:
#105
Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:
What do you guys predict for a final score in that Mich game and Washington game? Thank you so much!!!!
Quote Originally Posted by TD21:
Opening Totals locked in this afternoon: Washington / Auburn Under 51 Northern Illinois / Iowa Under 51 Michigan / Notre Dame Under 48
TD , Nice Work on that Mich / ND total . BOL just dropped it to 46'Opening Totals locked in this afternoon: Washington / Auburn Under 51 Northern Illinois / Iowa Under 51 Michigan / Notre Dame Under 48
Posted:
#107
I don’t normally post but I have read your threads. Amazing work. I have 3 questions.
1) Would you still take Syracuse at -6
2) Will you be betting on the Iowa State game and the under for the Stony Brook/Air Force game
3) I know you haven’t mentioned it but have you looked into the NC A&T vs East Carolina game at all. NCAT returns a lot of their players from their 12-0 season, and ECU was just awful last year but had an offense fedthat could put up points. But now the QBs have graduated
Posted:
#108
I do love the Auburn/Washington UNDER. I love Duke too, although I really haven't had time to thoroughly cap week one yet. Will get busy on it next week when I have more time.
I can certainly understand why many are fading Alabama week one (particularly situationally), but I don't think that they are properly accounting for the Tua Tagovailoa factor. I understand 31.5 is a lot of points, but I don;t think it'll be nearly enough. Understand that this is the first time in the Saban era that Alabama has had a truly elite QB under center. They are absolutely going to demolish teams this season, starting with Louisville. I think they score north of 50 points versus the Cardinals.
I have faded Alabama quite a bit the past two seasons, including the championship game two years ago, and both playoff games last season. But this is NOT the season to fade Alabama.
Posted:
#109
Quote Originally Posted by jimmydafreak:
I do love the Auburn/Washington UNDER. I love Duke too, although I really haven't had time to thoroughly cap week one yet. Will get busy on it next week when I have more time.
I can certainly understand why many are fading Alabama week one (particularly situationally), but I don't think that they are properly accounting for the Tua Tagovailoa factor. I understand 31.5 is a lot of points, but I don;t think it'll be nearly enough. Understand that this is the first time in the Saban era that Alabama has had a truly elite QB under center. They are absolutely going to demolish teams this season, starting with Louisville. I think they score north of 50 points versus the Cardinals.
I have faded Alabama quite a bit the past two seasons, including the championship game two years ago, and both playoff games last season. But this is NOT the season to fade Alabama.
jimmy, I agree that Alabama has a different feel this year in terms of "how" they will be great. I think in the past they've been more consistent (i.e., only moderate ceiling at QB) and strong where as this year with the Tua factor and the defensive losses (but still very talented on D) that overall they may be a more "high ceiling / volatile" type of strong team (in a good way some weeks) this year. Large blowouts are very possible on the weeks where Tua plays well and plays the entire game. If those weeks align with the Secondary playing like veterans, then watch out!
I took UL +31.5 on 5/20 knowing that the South Point lines were coming out the next day and that this was the best line value I was going to see. I considered staying away altogether, but decided to make a small play with the thinking that Big Nick will play both QBs some in the 1st couple games and let them "settle it on the field" like he has most seasons with the QB position. And with the Secondary losses, I thought UL could get their 14-17 points. Of course I locked this in before WR Jaylen Smith was questionable. But, I agree with what you are saying about Alabama this year. It certainly crossed my mind that there is some % chance that they just skull fck a team like Louisville and win by 50. I'm keeping it as a small play. Won't be adding to it or backing out at the current #s. There will certainly be spots this year where I look to play Alabama. I waited too long on the Ole Miss GOY opening line I was considering as it was below 21 for a brief period of time.
Anyway, I'll be happy with a commanding Alabama 45-14 win here.
Best of luck to you this season! 
Posted:
#110
Quote Originally Posted by Black_42:
I don’t normally post but I have read your threads. Amazing work. I have 3 questions.
1) Would you still take Syracuse at -6
2) Will you be betting on the Iowa State game and the under for the Stony Brook/Air Force game
3) I know you haven’t mentioned it but have you looked into the NC A&T vs East Carolina game at all. NCAT returns a lot of their players from their 12-0 season, and ECU was just awful last year but had an offense fedthat could put up points. But now the QBs have graduated
1) Probably. I would take Syracuse -6 before I took WMU +6, I'll put it that way if you're looking for some action. I would drop the bet size at -6, but probably still worth a look.
2) I already did for both. I only post plays right after they are locked in.
3) I'll be brief, but will write a few words about this ECU / NC A&T game in a separate post. I know Scal had asked about it too over in BV's Montana game thread.
Posted:
#111
Quote Originally Posted by MikeMed:
I also am looking closely at the total in the NI/Iowa game......Both teams like to run it and I think NI will have trouble scoring in this one.....I see a 28-13 type game.
GL TD
Mike, I'm looking forward to seeing either of Iowa's reserve tackles blocking Sutton Smith for a full game. Smith will be fun to watch in this game especially with the Iowa suspensions.
Posted:
#112
Quote Originally Posted by LoveCFB1_:
TD , Nice Work on that Mich / ND total . BOL just dropped it to 46' What do you guys predict for a final score in that Mich game and Washington game? Thank you so much!!!!
TD , Nice Work on that Mich / ND total . BOL just dropped it to 46' What do you guys predict for a final score in that Mich game and Washington game? Thank you so much!!!!
I'm not really into the score predicting business, but since I have a play on both the side & total in the UW / Auburn game I guess I'll throw a score out there. ..... Believe this came up in another thread months ago and I said UW 20 - Auburn 16 at the time. I still think it will be this type of a score. Maybe 23-20 range as well. I would really like to see UW win outright. I like Coach Peterson much better than Malzahn and think the Dogs pull out a close one.
As for Michigan / ND, not sure on the score as I'm staying away from the side bet there. I think it will come down to which offense gets a few big plays. UM D being so aggressive gives up the occasional big play. And on offense with Shea Patterson that could also lead to high risk / high reward when they have the ball. This game should be a similar score to the other game. 20 - 17 or 24-20. Something like that. But if it's 35-7 I'm good with that too for the Under. I'd like to see UM win on about a 60 yard Q. Nordin field goal as time expires.
Posted:
#113
Scal and Black_42,
I had a pretty long response on the ECU / NC A&T game typed up but I somehow lost it all. D@mn, makes me mad... might be operator error. Muscle relaxer for my sore neck and computer time appear to be a bad combination. I'll try to recap.
ECU could/should win and cover most years vs. NC A&T, but I am not sure I have the stones to back them this year. If Montgomery wants to keep his job into October, he'll want to show some improvement with a double digit win here. But whether or not ECU has the talent or will play hard for Montgomery I have not decided yet.
I would want to circle back and see how well the new ECU QBs are doing if I was considering a play on this game. Same thing with trying to monitor the impact that a new DC will have in game #1. By the way, the new ECU DC comes from FCS Jacksonville State. Jax State just happens to play NC A&T in week 0. So, ECU will get to see the 2018 NC A&T team in a real game before they play. But conversely NC A&T gets real game reps in first that usually helps with early season week to week improvement. NC A&T should remain solid (for their level) on defense with 8 starters back (most experience is in the front 4 and the Secondary). But on offense NC A&T must replace 4 O-Linemen. NC A&T does bring back their all conf QB, top RB, & top WR, but WRs #2 - #5 are all gone.
One reason to consider ECU is that they actually did well against teams at or below their own tier (or "weight class"). My post 2017 PR#s had ECU at 51.9. ECU's 2017 results were very volatile. Using my #s for all opponents as well, ECU had an ATS margin of -14.2 ppg vs. teams rated #14-#42 (0-5 ATS and the defense allowed 62.8 ppg!). But against the bottom 3 opponents (rated #116 - #134 *rankings include FCS teams) they were +18.9 ppg for ATS margin and 3-0 ATS against UConn, Cinci, and BYU. So, they played very well and matched up just fine against teams closer to their own talent level. ECU should have the same or better talent than NC A&T. How well they match up and how hard they'll play are separate discussions.
The 5D opener was -12 (Massey -13.5 baseline) and it's been bet down to -9.5. So, a slightly better # available now if you like ECU.
Best of luck if you decide to get some action here!
Posted:
#115
I bumped up the FAU play:
Week 0/1 plays:
Syracuse -1.5 (2u)Wyoming +1 (1.5u)
Florida State -6 (1u)
Washington / Auburn Under 51 (1u)
Central Florida -16.5 (0.75u) & Connecticut +24 -105 (0.75u)
Old Dominion -5.5 (0.75u)
Central Florida -16.5 (0.75u) & Connecticut +24 -105 (0.75u)
Old Dominion -5.5 (0.75u)
Michigan / Notre Dame Under 48 (0.75u)
Northern Illinois / Iowa Under 51 (0.75u)
Florida Atlantic +24 hook (0.3u) & Added FAU +21 -115 (0.4u) -- 0.7u overall
Washington +5.5 (0.5u)
Washington +5.5 (0.5u)
Texas -7 hook (0.2u)
Louisville +31.5 hook (0.2u)
Louisville +31.5 hook (0.2u)
Ball State -9.5
Villanova +18.5
Iowa State -12
South Dakota State / Iowa State Under 56.5
Florida -33
Louisiana Monroe -11
Stony Brook / Air Force Under 60 & Under 59.5
James Madison +14.5 hook & again +14.5 (no hook this time)
Richmond / Virginia Under 56.5
College Extra Week 1:
Eastern Kentucky -23.5
The Citadel +15 & +14.5
McNeese State PK
New Hampshire / Maine Under 45
New Hampshire -3
GOY Lines:
Mississippi State -3 (1u) (Week 2 at Kansas State on 9/8)
Notre Dame -7 (0.5u) (Week 4 at Wake Forest on 9/22)
Mississippi State +18.5 (0.5u) (Week 11 on 11/10)
Posted:
#116
And one more update:
Week 0/1 plays:
Syracuse -1.5 (2u)Wyoming +1 (1.5u)
Florida State -6 (1u)
Washington / Auburn Under 51 (1u)
Central Florida -16.5 (0.75u) & Connecticut +24 -105 (0.75u)
Old Dominion -5.5 (0.75u)
Central Florida -16.5 (0.75u) & Connecticut +24 -105 (0.75u)
Old Dominion -5.5 (0.75u)
Michigan / Notre Dame Under 48 (0.75u)
Northern Illinois / Iowa Under 51 (0.75u)
Florida Atlantic +24 hook (0.3u) & Added FAU +21 -115 (0.4u) -- 0.7u overall
Washington +5.5 (0.5u)
Washington +5.5 (0.5u)
Texas -7 hook (0.2u)
Louisville +31.5 hook (0.2u)
Louisville +31.5 hook (0.2u)
Ball State -9.5
Villanova +18.5
Iowa State -12
South Dakota State / Iowa State Under 56.5
Florida -33
Louisiana Monroe -11
Stony Brook / Air Force Under 60 & Under 59.5
James Madison +14.5 hook & again +14.5 (no hook this time)
Richmond / Virginia Under 56.5
Added: SE Missouri State / Arkansas State Over 55
College Extra Week 1:
Eastern Kentucky -23.5
The Citadel +15 & +14.5
McNeese State PK
New Hampshire / Maine Under 45
New Hampshire -3
GOY Lines:
Mississippi State -3 (1u) (Week 2 at Kansas State on 9/8)
Notre Dame -7 (0.5u) (Week 4 at Wake Forest on 9/22)
Mississippi State +18.5 (0.5u) (Week 11 on 11/10)
[/Quote]
Posted:
#117
And one more update.... not sure why this didn't work in the last post:
Week 0/1 plays:
Syracuse -1.5 (2u)Wyoming +1 (1.5u)
Florida State -6 (1u)
Washington / Auburn Under 51 (1u)
Central Florida -16.5 (0.75u) & Connecticut +24 -105 (0.75u)
Old Dominion -5.5 (0.75u)
Central Florida -16.5 (0.75u) & Connecticut +24 -105 (0.75u)
Old Dominion -5.5 (0.75u)
Michigan / Notre Dame Under 48 (0.75u)
Northern Illinois / Iowa Under 51 (0.75u)
Florida Atlantic +24 hook (0.3u) & Added FAU +21 -115 (0.4u) -- 0.7u overall
Washington +5.5 (0.5u)
Washington +5.5 (0.5u)
Texas -7 hook (0.2u)
Louisville +31.5 hook (0.2u)
Louisville +31.5 hook (0.2u)
Ball State -9.5
Villanova +18.5
Iowa State -12
South Dakota State / Iowa State Under 56.5
Florida -33
Louisiana Monroe -11
Stony Brook / Air Force Under 60 & Under 59.5
James Madison +14.5 hook & again +14.5 (no hook this time)
Richmond / Virginia Under 56.5
Added: Southeast Missouri State / Arkansas State Over 55
College Extra Week 1:
Eastern Kentucky -23.5
The Citadel +15 & +14.5
McNeese State PK
New Hampshire / Maine Under 45
New Hampshire -3
GOY Lines:
Mississippi State -3 (1u) (Week 2 at Kansas State on 9/8)
Notre Dame -7 (0.5u) (Week 4 at Wake Forest on 9/22)
Mississippi State +18.5 (0.5u) (Week 11 on 11/10)
Posted:
#119
A couple more full season prop bets are added below:
Heisman Trophy: Trace McSorley +2000 & +2500
Heisman Trophy: Kyler Murray +2700
Heisman Trophy: Nick Fitzgerald +3300 & +4000
Added: Georgia to win the SEC +300 (0.2u)
*I expect Georgia to win the SEC east. If they play Alabama in the SEC Championship game, +300 will be better than the Moneyline. Looks like a good hedge opportunity at a minimum.
Added: Johnathan Taylor rushing TDs Over 15.5 -140 *small play only.
Posted:
#120
I decided to play for LSU to win exactly 7 games and got out of the original LSU play below.
I'll lose 0.025u or 0.03u in either case; 8 wins or more & 6 wins or less. Exactly 7 LSU wins would cash the original play and push this added play. I considered hedging the current Under 6.5 at +161 that would have guaranteed +0.1u for either case, but decided to play for the exact win instead. So, risking 0.0275u on average to win 0.5u (essentially 18:1 odds) and I can play on or against LSU in the Texas A&M finale as needed.
RSW Win Totals:
Tennessee Under 6.5 -165 (risk 0.5 to win 0.303)
LSU Over 6.5 -110 (0.5u) & Added LSU Under 7 -101 (Risk 0.525u to win 0.52u)
Washington Over 8.5 -195 & -200 (risk 0.985 to win 0.5u)
New Mexico State Under 6 -135 (to win 0.5u)
Louisville Under 7.5 -120 (to win 0.5u)
Colorado State Over 5.5 -115 (to win 0.5u)
Ole Miss Under 6.5 -120 (1u)
Tulane Over 4.5 -110 (0.5u)
Posted:
#121
Non-Power 5 update -- adding the Mountain West below.
Preliminary 2018 AAC week 1 PR#s:
Central Florida 77.9
Memphis 77.9
Houston 77.6
Navy 72.9
South Florida 69.0
Temple 68.5
Tulane 66.2
SMU 65.7
Tulsa 63.7
Cincinnati 63.5
Connecticut 58.6
East Carolina 57.5
Preliminary 2018 Independents week 1 PR#s:
Notre Dame 91.2
Army 66.6
BYU 65.1
Massachusetts 61.2
New Mexico State 57.9
Liberty 45.3
Preliminary 2018 MAC week 1 PR#s:
Ohio University 70.0
Toledo 68.7
Northern Illinois 67.4
Miami (OH) 64.7
Western Michigan 64.7
Buffalo 64.5
Eastern Michigan 61.5
Central Michigan 56.7
Bowling Green 56.5
Akron 56.5
Ball State 52.3
Kent State 47.6
Preliminary 2018 Sun Belt week 1 PR#s:
Troy 69.0
Arkansas State 66.4
Appalachian State 64.5
Louisiana Monroe 62.5
Georgia Southern 61.8
South Alabama 57.7
Louisiana Lafayette 53.8
Georgia State 52.7
Coastal Carolina 51.9
Texas State 47.5
Preliminary 2018 Mountain West week 1 PR#s:
Boise State 83.0
San Diego State 75.0
Fresno State 73.6
Utah State 70.0
Wyoming 66.3
Nevada 66.0
Air Force 65.0
Colorado State 63.0
UNLV 60.2
New Mexico 56.3
San Jose State 48.3
Hawaii 47.2
Posted:
#123
Continuously tweaking #s based on preseason updates:
Preliminary 2018 Big Ten
week 1 PR#s:
Ohio State 93.8
Wisconsin 90.9
Michigan 90.1
Penn State 88.3
Michigan
State 86.9
Iowa 76.5
Nebraska 76.5
Northwestern 75.1
Purdue 73.4
Indiana 72.5
Maryland 71.6
Minnesota 71.3
Illinois 67.4
Rutgers 65.7
Preliminary 2018 Big 12
week 1 PR#s:
Oklahoma 91.0
Texas 87.1
West Virginia 80.9
Oklahoma State
80.6
TCU 79.8
Iowa State 78.3
Kansas State 75.5
Baylor 75.4
Texas Tech 75.1
Kansas 59.2
Preliminary 2018 ACC
week 1 PR#s:
Clemson 99.2
Miami 87.8
Florida
State 85.8
Boston College
79.3
North Carolina
State 77.2
Louisville 77.2
Georgia Tech 76.9
Duke 75.8
Virginia Tech 75.6
Pittsburgh 74.7
Syracuse 74.1
North
Carolina 73.5
Wake Forest 73.4
Virginia 67.6
Preliminary 2018 SEC
week 1 PR#s:
Alabama 98.1
Georgia 97.5
Auburn 90.8
Mississippi State
90.8
LSU 83.5
Florida 82.8
Texas A&M 81.7
South
Carolina 77.9
Missouri 74.7
Kentucky 72.5
Mississippi 72.5
Arkansas 72.4
Tennessee 72.1
Vanderbilt 65.2
Preliminary 2018 Pac 12
week 1 PR#s:
Washington 92.6
USC 85.9
Stanford 85.8
Oregon 84.7
Utah 78.2
Arizona 75.5
California 74.6
UCLA 74.1
Arizona State 74.0
Washington State
71.9
Colorado 70.6
Oregon State 59.7
Posted:
#124
Trying to wrap up CUSA still (FAU is already graded out), so here's my current top 50 overall PR #s no longer split out by conference:
1. Clemson 99.2
2. Alabama 98.1
3. Georgia 97.5
4. Ohio State 93.8
5. Washington 92.6
6. Oklahoma 91.0
7. Wisconsin 90.9
8. Notre Dame 90.8
8. Mississippi State 90.8
8. Auburn 90.8
11. Michigan 90.1
12. Penn State 88.3
13. Miami 87.8
14. Texas 87.1
15. Michigan State 86.9
16. USC 85.9
17. Stanford 85.8
17. Florida State 85.8
19. Oregon 84.7
20. LSU 83.5
21. Boise State 83.0
22. Florida 82.8
23. Texas A&M 81.7
24. West Virginia 80.9
25. Oklahoma State 80.6
26. TCU 79.8
27. Boston College 79.3
28. Iowa State 78.3
29. Utah 78.2
30. South Carolina 77.9
30. Memphis 77.9
30. Central Florida 77.9
33. Houston 77.6
34. North Carolina State 77.2
34. Louisville 77.2
36. Georgia Tech 76.9
37. Iowa 76.5
37. Nebraska 76.5
39. Duke 75.8
40. Virginia Tech 75.6
41. Kansas State 75.5
41. Arizona 75.5
43. Baylor 75.4
44. Texas Tech 75.1
44. Northwestern 75.1
46. San Diego State 75.0
47. Florida Atlantic 74.8
48. Missouri 74.7
48. Pittsburgh 74.7
50. California 74.6
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