🏈🏈🏈 Fubah2's risky CFB bets

WEEK 2 ...

Lean  to TOLEDO  ...pending review of injuries...full tier edge!

   OSU deemed #1 in new polls

Texas drops to 7th place, despite outperforming OSU while playing on the road 

Key game stats, Texas @OSU:

...........................TEX......OSU
First downs:        16         11
Net yards:         336     203
Net YPP:            5.0        3.8
50+ yd drives:     3           2

Turnovers:           1            0     OSU scores off this break!
Penalties:       6/50       2/15    OSU gains significant benefit!

**Note: after an impressive 15 plays/70 yd drive mid-3Q, trailing 0 - 7, and with a 2nd & goal at the OSU 4, poor execution on 3 consecutive plays cost the Longhorns a TD........in a 7 pt loss.

 Although OSU won, the stats say they were out performed by Texas!
      I always ask myself, how would this likely play out had the venues been reversed and it was a TEXAS home game in Austin?

... my experience suggests Texas likely would have prevailed AT HOME by 14+

  My TOP 20 ratings (ranked) after week #1

Note: W/L is disregarded here. My ratings are based on the strength/performances of the teams relative to 136 schools.

G+ ..........Penn St.
G+ ..........Texas
G+ ..........Oregon
G+ ..........Georgia

G+/G ......Ohio St.
G+/G ......Miami
G+/G ......Notre Dame
G+/G ......Iowa St.
G+/G ......Illinois
G+/G ......LSU
G+/G ......Clemson
G+/G ......Florida
G+/G ......Indiana
G+/G ......Ole' Miss
G+/G ......Arizona St.
G+/G ......Alabama
G+/G ......Seminoles

g+/G .......Tex.A/M
g+/G .......USC
g+/G .......Michigan

Glass half full FUBAH ....respectfully..... outplayed only on one facet of the game!

I think for individual talent, the stars of OSU far outweigh stars of Texas right now.... but, I reserve the right to change my mind by the end of the season. I need to see more from Texas. The game was splat in my opinion. I watched it and a few more. LSU might outplay both of them potentially if they continue to play like they did and even improve....wow they were impressive. The defense for LSU was wow.....speed and timely, especially in the secondary where they covered and competed every ball.

  LSU looked good to be sure, but SEMINOLES looked awesome, imo.

But like you say, we need to see much more for a truly accurate rating...

Yep....FSU were flying everywhere  .....  Clemson looked like a proper SEC/BIG 10 type  opponent....weird that Bama went splat and did not push back on another good ACC team?

My $$ bets so far:
(my ratings shown....bets @Pinnacle unless indicated)

G+/G .....ILLINOIS -2.5 -128 alt *BB
m+/M.....Duke

G..........Iowa
G+/G....IOWA ST. -3 -109

 If unclear, the team including the posted odds are my $$ bets.

 I have posted this warning before so beware: my record over the decades BEFORE OCTOBER is roughly between mediocre and poor, due to lack of sufficient stats.  But beginning in October (NFL & CFB) my capping method has sufficient stats/results to work with and I usually profit.   But no guarantees...

More to come . . .

ok     ill go with illinois -3              thx 

LEANING to SMU but there may be injury concerns so I am holding off for now.

@fubah2

 Class act with humbleness to even offer up “beware” tells you all you need to know… Fubah 100% shares to honestly help others and with no agenda or ego.  A novice handicapper could learn life time lessons just watching and following along. The best of the best of the best…

Hey Kelly, something you may want to consider, which I do occasionally is to play the -2.75 on a line like this matchup.. I’ll put half on -3 and half on a juiced -2.5 =-2.75 some call it European Handicapping…I prefer it to paying full vig for a .5 point. Limits exposure over the long haul as a daily player. GL 

I think Mr. Mensah is about to be very humbled by this Illini defense… in this matchup I see clear BIG10 domination and agree with the legend King Fubah …great spot!  Unfortunate news is I like Iowa +3.5 and I am not looking forward to being opposite John Wayne.  

Ha, may your September be better than ever 

College station is another 5.0 for me…Knoxville, Baton Rouge at night, Columbus at high noon, Autzen, West Point in a way, Clemson, Gainesville yup, IOWA, Air Force at C Springs elevation , a Penn st white out, Lubbock and to a degree Ftworth and TCU can also kinda bring it. 
Lincoln is trying again, Norman also…for 40 years they owned it. Madison and Manhattan, Ks are two more spots you do not want to take your team into.  Georgia recent run is absurd… no one wins there. Nobody. Tuscaloosa and the frat boys of course hahaha and THE big house Ann Arbor Michigan I also add an ‘ to their home advantage. 

Went a little wild there, ha, but I do think the above mentioned deserve a -3.75 home advantage vs the Usual -3.  Quick glance at top 25, i can’t say Texas, Miami, ND, ASU, SMU, can claim that same extra tick advantage at home.  Just my ideas GL Fuby!

Good stuff! 

@fubah2

 
thank you sir  

  The NCAA FBS Oversight Committee voted Thursday to move to a January transfer window and eliminate the spring window.

The proposed lone transfer window would be a 10-day period that opens Jan. 2, 2026, one day after the College Football Playoff quarterfinals are completed.

Also leaning Illinois. Good luck fubah 

LIVE BET mid-1Q, no score, JMU ball:  JAMES +15.5 -188 alt-line

 Hey DOC!  If you go with Illinois I'll be pulling for ya to win that bet 

Wondering if I am going to lose to another fluky BAD BEAT in the final 2 mins...

14 - 28 cover 

I have several more for Saturday but will be posting very close to kickoff...

LIVE BET 1Q, no score, Cyclones first drive, midfield:  Cyclones -190  *BB