YTD: 6-4-1
2011-'12: 34-23
2010-'11: 2-3-1
2009-'10: 14-7
Coming off a nice win on the UNLV / Cal Over on Sunday.
Play: West Virginia / Duquesne Under 139
Unlike many non-conference games this time of year, there is some statistical history to draw upon in this match up between two schools only separated by 75 miles on I-79. Looking at the last 3 meetings, we’ve seen the final scores go under the posted total by a combined 70.5 points!
It is obvious that the Dukes have struggled facing Huggins’ defense with points per possession of 0.91, 0.57, and 0.95 in these most recent meetings. This trend is also consistent with the only 2 times that Duquesne has stepped up in class this year: a 55 point (0.77 ppp) effort vs Georgetown and a 45 point (0.71ppp) game vs Pitt.
I can also see Duquesne struggling with the slower pace that WVU will play at tonight as the Dukes traditionally have like to push the tempo. This transition in style could also be exacerbated by the fact that the Dukes are coming off 3 games in their last 4 vs opponents ranked in the top 60 nationally with respect to tempo (App St #60, Maine #39, New Orleans #40).
But there are additional angles besides pace and points per possession that point towards an under in this game. First, this a very “flat” situation for WVU, who admittedly is struggling to shoot the ball (39.8% from the floor on the season, #292). They are coming off their best win of the year over Virginia Tech and have Michigan on deck Saturday – not the ideal situation mentally to break these shooting woes. Huggins on Monday, “We've shot the ball a bunch in practice. Some of the guys that are struggling to make a shot have shot it very well in practice. We just have to keep shooting the ball.”
Second, is the arena that the game will take place in tonight. This is only the second “home” game that Duquesne has played in the Consol Center and senior guard Sean Johnson is aware of the adjustment period that goes into playing at a new venue, “Guys just have to get comfortable with the shots they know they can make and take those shots and we should be fine…It is a big, wide-open court, there is really nothing to not like about playing there. Now it is just up to us to have a better showing this time around.”
Lastly, there are a couple statistical factors that tend to limit the pace of a game that should be present tonight. First, WVU does not turn the ball over (#19 in turnover %) and Duquesne does not create turnovers (#303 in turnover %), thus curtailing the opportunities for fast break points in transition. Secondly, WVU dominates the offensive boards and have ranked in the top 10 for the last 4 years in this statistic. This season is no different and the Dukes will need to dedicate more resources to rebounding tonight, thus limiting breakout scenarios on misses. More from Sean Johnson, “"The key for us, as always, will be rebounding. West Virginia is bigger than us and most teams are bigger than us, so we have to make sure we hold true to our fundamentals and box out and compete for rebounds."
Obviously, this game could always go over. But I think there is enough statistical and situational evidence that the posted total tonight too high.
Good luck if you decide to make a play