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Vegas vs KenPom Week 10

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Legend
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Posted: #176
Hope things pick up & get better!!
 
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Posted: #177
Quote Originally Posted by trabs9:

 IPFW 29.5
Pacific 21.4
UC Riverside 18.9
Pepperdine 25.1
Montana St.
CSNR 20.4
Sac St. 19.9
Portland 17.5


Thanks trabs
 
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Posted: #178
Quote Originally Posted by jrivers:

To illustrate yesterday St Louis +3 was a play vs Xavier. St Louis was ranked 24 while Xavier 54. 


St. Louis was ranked 13th before yesterday's game. Xavier was ranked 51st before yesterday's game. 
 
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Posted: #179
Quote Originally Posted by trabs9:

IPFW 29.5
Pacific 21.4
UC Riverside 18.9
Pepperdine 25.1
Montana St.
CSNR 20.4
Sac St. 19.9
Portland 17.5

Interesting because this eliminates Riverside, an away play, and leaves 4 HFT plays, which seem to perform the worst. 

 
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Posted: #180

Looking back over the records and data. I ll be damn, great filter find. It will be interesting to keep track of this.

 
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Posted: #181

New to this thread so what are to filtered plays.

Thanks

 
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Posted: #182
Quote Originally Posted by hagrin:


St. Louis was ranked 13th before yesterday's game. Xavier was ranked 51st before yesterday's game. 

 You're looking at KP, I am looking at Sagarin, two totally different ratings.

 
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Posted: #183
Quote Originally Posted by kkirby99:

I wanted to go back to something I brought up a few days ago about the same teams showing up under the system and in those cases where they are getting smacked again and again. The conclusion that I've come up with is these teams have no depth to compete for the full game against the better teams in their conference hence the failure to cover even though they may have covered the 1H. E. Carolina, Rice, SMU, Towson, W&M, Citadel keep showing up as plays and they are killing us. How to filter out the crap teams that just can't compete even though Vegas gives them the benefit of the doubt?  My answer is to use the KP Thrill  Score.  Any game that is below 30 is eliminated from play. That prevents us from playing a game between 2 crap teams where we shouldn't be laying or taking points and prevents us from playing a team that just can't compete on a regular basis. They will have their flashes of brilliance but I'm not interested in being a hero by picking these teams. An added benefit is reducing the number of plays. If you're playing a decent amount of money on each of these plays you know what 23 games on the same day feels like. I've run the numbers for the last 14 days and I'm a little burnt out but here's what I've found. If anyone wants to do other weeks with this filter and report back, great, but I've seen enough.

Last 14 days starting with games of Thurs. 1/12:

Regular plays per the thread 58-56 with the last week being an awful 22-34

Filtered plays with 30+ Thrill Score  40-21 with the last week being 17-10

If you really wanted to get cute and reverse the plays for the thrill scores under 30..... 75-39  GL

Kirby..this is one the BEST angles .....THANK YOU MUCH
 
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Posted: #184

trabs9,

I will side with the Sagarin #'s to get my basis of what plays I'll look at. However it doesn't mean I'll blindly play the plays because they meet the criteria.

In looking at the teams that are being produced by KP, they are dregs of the dregs for the most part. Look at the list of teams.

I would be interested to see the results of just the main lined teams and not the added teams like IPFW, Montana St etc etc.

This is where a spreadsheet comes into play rather than trying to go back and look through a bunch of topics to manually gather/obtain the information to do some research.

I still think the KP system has great use it's just a matter of drilling it down further to get the best out of it.  It's getting there with some of the observations made.

 

 

 
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Posted: #185
With the thrill filter added, what should be the plays used for KP tonight compared to the full listing?
 
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Posted: #186

jrivers...just wondering why someone would post plays in this thread that are contradicting the system of this thread

Megatron did the same at one time and was politely asked to post in his own thread...because it was confusing having plays contradicting each other...

The same thing could happen again... 

 
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Posted: #187
Quote Originally Posted by jrivers:

trabs9,

I will side with the Sagarin #'s to get my basis of what plays I'll look at. However it doesn't mean I'll blindly play the plays because they meet the criteria.

In looking at the teams that are being produced by KP, they are dregs of the dregs for the most part. Look at the list of teams.

I


Good. You should start your own thread then. This was serious, not snarky.

 
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Posted: #188
in agreement with Pitch Black.  The thrill score is a brilliant idea.  Took a nap and missed the early plays.  Will be taking Eastern Washington, Green Bay, and USC
 
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Posted: #189

The filter is something we should definitely keep on eye on.

 
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Posted: #190
Quote Originally Posted by Bobcat36:


Good. You should start your own thread then. This was serious, not snarky.

agreed bobcat...

 
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Posted: #191

I am looking at a way to tie KP with SAG, obv it offers difference of opinion and a different method of extraction of what a play is.

I'll move on because I don't want to upset the apple cart.

Best of success with the plays.

 
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Posted: #192

jrivers...

You could still look for the connection between Sagarin and KP...just posting plays that contradict with the system is counter productive and confusing...

Your input is valuable and wanted...we need as many angles as possible in order to get this system to work...

 
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Posted: #193
Great work early guys
 
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Posted: #194
Hasn't mattered tonight filtered or not filtered.
 
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Posted: #195
Looks like it will end up being 4-2 tonight with USC down big. Not a bad night. Looks like the only play for tomorrow is Canisius but the thrill score for that game is the lowest of the day at 14.3 so it wouldn't be a play if you are filtering by thrill score. Now the decision will be what to do about Saturday. Saturday has a HUGE card and currently there are 61 games with a thrill score over 30. We'll see tomorrow what the preliminary plays will be when the lines comes out but I would guess there will probably be ~12-15 plays. Decisions decisions.
 
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Posted: #196
yes   flyer  ...not a bad night ........made ca$h..the new filter angle how to play it?????????????
 
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Posted: #197
I have 9-4 without the thrill score filter tonight, Portland pending.
 
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Posted: #198

Quote Originally Posted by trabs9:

I have 9-4 without the thrill score filter tonight, Portland pending.

Yep.

 
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Posted: #199

Quote Originally Posted by flyerlax06:

Looks like it will end up being 4-2 tonight with USC down big. Not a bad night. Looks like the only play for tomorrow is Canisius but the thrill score for that game is the lowest of the day at 14.3 so it wouldn't be a play if you are filtering by thrill score. Now the decision will be what to do about Saturday. Saturday has a HUGE card and currently there are 61 games with a thrill score over 30. We'll see tomorrow what the preliminary plays will be when the lines comes out but I would guess there will probably be ~12-15 plays. Decisions decisions.

gotta give it time to update bro. (and maybe it already did....) Regardless, thanks for the heads up. Got the openers wrote down already, I wait until the am to look at KP.

 
 
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You Ladies need to learn how to cap your own games...
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