I have went back and started with January 2nd which was a Monday and obtained every single play shown as an official play by beaver from 1/2 to 1/27.
I am a statistic and analytical person and have come across some pretty interesting information. I broke things done by conference, by day, by dog, by favorite and by week.
Playing 4 specific conferences this month has yielded a 37-15 record or 71.1% win rate. One conference alone is 9-1 so far this month.
On the flip side 2 conferences are sitting at 2-13 including one that is 0-7.
There's one day of the week this month that has produced a 32-16 record for the month and you can bet it's not Saturday where you have a train wreck of 34 potentials for tomorrow.
Saturday's this month have gone 34-41 and you are looking to add 34 more games in 1 day.
Did you know that favorites so far this month have gone 33-24 and that's even after going 5-10 so far this week. Up until this week the favorites were winning at a 67% clip this month.
All of this information is just from this month when the system has gone 110-93 54.18%
In the first 6 weeks the system went 118-96 55.14% a total of 214 plays and this month alone you have 203 and will be pushing 245+
This shows the system is pushing out a lot of plays in a shorter span of time and the amount of games that will need to be won is going to be greater to achieve to continue success. This is why you are seeing the numbers push back slowly to the median.
One thing that made this very time consuming is that there wasn't a daily recap by game and only an overall record. I did find a few minor errors but that is going to happen.
I suggest that when a daily recap is done it shows the list of the games and whether it won or lost by the line that listed as the official play.
A spreadsheet or a blog would again be a good idea to keep everything in one place and be a lot easier for people to scan the results and then glean information to do a deeper analysis as I did.
It took a lot of time to do just this months alone. The other part of the problem is that people were coming up with all kind of different results. I used Beaver23's only. However there was times when he didn't have a chance and left it to others to try to replicate what he does. It was a clutterphuck of results and there was no way to know what was right or wrong.
I have said all along that this system can be torn apart and tweaked and I am analyzing what I put together and have shared some early results.
Good luck on Saturday.
I have went back and started with January 2nd which was a Monday and obtained every single play shown as an official play by beaver from 1/2 to 1/27.
I am a statistic and analytical person and have come across some pretty interesting information. I broke things done by conference, by day, by dog, by favorite and by week.
Playing 4 specific conferences this month has yielded a 37-15 record or 71.1% win rate. One conference alone is 9-1 so far this month.
On the flip side 2 conferences are sitting at 2-13 including one that is 0-7.
There's one day of the week this month that has produced a 32-16 record for the month and you can bet it's not Saturday where you have a train wreck of 34 potentials for tomorrow.
Saturday's this month have gone 34-41 and you are looking to add 34 more games in 1 day.
Did you know that favorites so far this month have gone 33-24 and that's even after going 5-10 so far this week. Up until this week the favorites were winning at a 67% clip this month.
All of this information is just from this month when the system has gone 110-93 54.18%
In the first 6 weeks the system went 118-96 55.14% a total of 214 plays and this month alone you have 203 and will be pushing 245+
This shows the system is pushing out a lot of plays in a shorter span of time and the amount of games that will need to be won is going to be greater to achieve to continue success. This is why you are seeing the numbers push back slowly to the median.
One thing that made this very time consuming is that there wasn't a daily recap by game and only an overall record. I did find a few minor errors but that is going to happen.
I suggest that when a daily recap is done it shows the list of the games and whether it won or lost by the line that listed as the official play.
A spreadsheet or a blog would again be a good idea to keep everything in one place and be a lot easier for people to scan the results and then glean information to do a deeper analysis as I did.
It took a lot of time to do just this months alone. The other part of the problem is that people were coming up with all kind of different results. I used Beaver23's only. However there was times when he didn't have a chance and left it to others to try to replicate what he does. It was a clutterphuck of results and there was no way to know what was right or wrong.
I have said all along that this system can be torn apart and tweaked and I am analyzing what I put together and have shared some early results.
Good luck on Saturday.
I have went back and started with January 2nd which was a Monday and obtained every single play shown as an official play by beaver from 1/2 to 1/27.
I am a statistic and analytical person and have come across some pretty interesting information. I broke things done by conference, by day, by dog, by favorite and by week.
Playing 4 specific conferences this month has yielded a 37-15 record or 71.1% win rate. One conference alone is 9-1 so far this month.
On the flip side 2 conferences are sitting at 2-13 including one that is 0-7.
There's one day of the week this month that has produced a 32-16 record for the month and you can bet it's not Saturday where you have a train wreck of 34 potentials for tomorrow.
Saturday's this month have gone 34-41 and you are looking to add 34 more games in 1 day.
Did you know that favorites so far this month have gone 33-24 and that's even after going 5-10 so far this week. Up until this week the favorites were winning at a 67% clip this month.
All of this information is just from this month when the system has gone 110-93 54.18%
In the first 6 weeks the system went 118-96 55.14% a total of 214 plays and this month alone you have 203 and will be pushing 245+
This shows the system is pushing out a lot of plays in a shorter span of time and the amount of games that will need to be won is going to be greater to achieve to continue success. This is why you are seeing the numbers push back slowly to the median.
One thing that made this very time consuming is that there wasn't a daily recap by game and only an overall record. I did find a few minor errors but that is going to happen.
I suggest that when a daily recap is done it shows the list of the games and whether it won or lost by the line that listed as the official play.
A spreadsheet or a blog would again be a good idea to keep everything in one place and be a lot easier for people to scan the results and then glean information to do a deeper analysis as I did.
It took a lot of time to do just this months alone. The other part of the problem is that people were coming up with all kind of different results. I used Beaver23's only. However there was times when he didn't have a chance and left it to others to try to replicate what he does. It was a clutterphuck of results and there was no way to know what was right or wrong.
I have said all along that this system can be torn apart and tweaked and I am analyzing what I put together and have shared some early results.
Good luck on Saturday.
From Jan 1 to Jan 27 if you played games at:
Pick em 5-2
Favorites of
1-4.5 18-12
5-9.5 9-2
10-14.5 3-3
15+ 0-0
Dogs of:
1-4.5 27-26
5-9.5 31-27
10-14.5 10-18
15+ 7-3
This month if you bet on the selections in these conferences you went:
Colonial 0-7
Sun Belt 2-6
Added or Extra Games 24-24
On the positive side if you bet these teams in the system:
Big 10 11-4
Big 12 8-5
Big West 9-1
Pac 12 9-5
37-15 and if you toss out the Big12/Pac 12 and went with Big 10 and Best West how about 20-5 or an 80% win rate.
These should be some eye openers.
Let me add that 48 of 203 plays this month have been on dog shit teams. Teams that are on the added board or extra board. That's 23.6% of the plays on teams that truly unless you are a homer or get no sleep have no idea what is going on with those teams. Luckily enough those 48 plays went 24-24 or 50%. I'll flip my coin elsewhere thank you.
We've seen a total of 4 games from the ACC, MTN West, 6 from the SEC.
Compare that to 4 from the Ivy League 5 from the Horizon League and 6 from the MO Valley.
Food for thought.....
This should come as no surprise as the junk teams have come out the most.
Teams that were picks this month alone:
4 times (2-6)
UL Layfayette 1-3 and UL Monroe 1-3 .
3 times (31-33-1)
Canisus 0-3, Citadel 1-2 , Cal St North Ridge 3-0 , Depaul 1-2 , Drake 2-1, Duquense 1-2 , Indiana St 1-2 , IUPUI 1-2 , Michigan 3-0, Miami Oh 1-2, Northern AZ 1-2 , Oakland 2-1 , Oklahoma St 2-1 , Penn St 2-1 , Rhode Island 1-2, Santa Clara 1-2 , St Johns 1-2, Tennessee 1-1-1, Utah 3-0 and William and Mary 0-3.
Look at the names on the list outside of Michigan who's a top 20 team and has the line adjusted against it anyway.
All of these teams are just bad overall teams.
33-39-1 45.83 win rate.
One other thing to mention there are 33 teams that came up 2x this month.
beaver in regards to the blog, the easiest way to do it is make a thread title with the month, then respond with each days selection and make sure each day has the W, L or push next to each selection. This is going to take some work but in the end will pay off.
When you get done with a month, create a new topic and start a new month. Also make it where people can't reply to these topics by locking them. We don't want replies, we want a 1 stop thread for each month.
I know a guy that owns a sports forum, perhaps I can ask him if he would allow a forum topic just for this stuff and it can't be kept orderly. Thoughts?
One other thing to mention there are 33 teams that came up 2x this month.
beaver in regards to the blog, the easiest way to do it is make a thread title with the month, then respond with each days selection and make sure each day has the W, L or push next to each selection. This is going to take some work but in the end will pay off.
When you get done with a month, create a new topic and start a new month. Also make it where people can't reply to these topics by locking them. We don't want replies, we want a 1 stop thread for each month.
I know a guy that owns a sports forum, perhaps I can ask him if he would allow a forum topic just for this stuff and it can't be kept orderly. Thoughts?
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