I will have to ytd totals updated shortly...I just wanted to get the official plays out there for everyone to see. I like that madduxsports website for opening lines, I'm going to try using them for a while.
Also, I think we found out that saturdays have hit at about 45% this season and they were not profitable last season either....it may be time to think about not playing the system on saturday's. Any thoughts on this???
Official Monday Plays:
William and Mary +11 (HDN) James Madison +11.5 (RDT) Towson +13 (RDA) Santa Clara -1 (HFA) Citadel +9.5 (RDT) Prairie View -5.5 (HFT)
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
I will have to ytd totals updated shortly...I just wanted to get the official plays out there for everyone to see. I like that madduxsports website for opening lines, I'm going to try using them for a while.
Also, I think we found out that saturdays have hit at about 45% this season and they were not profitable last season either....it may be time to think about not playing the system on saturday's. Any thoughts on this???
Official Monday Plays:
William and Mary +11 (HDN) James Madison +11.5 (RDT) Towson +13 (RDA) Santa Clara -1 (HFA) Citadel +9.5 (RDT) Prairie View -5.5 (HFT)
not that i have been on this train as long as the rest of you fellas, but maybe checking out what winning % looks like without a few saturdays is a start..
thanks everyone for the hard work...gl
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thanks Beaver -
not that i have been on this train as long as the rest of you fellas, but maybe checking out what winning % looks like without a few saturdays is a start..
Still put out the system and everone can pick out what they want to play. Not playing 25 games is a lot smarter. Also beaver if you know ahead of time that you CAN NOT put up offical plays, maybe have 1 person handle it ,but with someone else double checking them....It was a cluster F..K with different plays and some no plays on sat. keep it up, in the long run we'll do ok
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Still put out the system and everone can pick out what they want to play. Not playing 25 games is a lot smarter. Also beaver if you know ahead of time that you CAN NOT put up offical plays, maybe have 1 person handle it ,but with someone else double checking them....It was a cluster F..K with different plays and some no plays on sat. keep it up, in the long run we'll do ok
The basis is simple. If there is a "large" difference between the
opening line and the fanmatch line on kenpom.com, I will side with
Vegas.
System rules:
If the line is between 0 and 4, a large difference is 2.5 points. 4.5 to 8, a large difference is 3 points. 8.5 to 12, a large difference is 3.5 points. 12.5 to 15.5, a large difference is 4 points. 16 and up, a large difference is 5 points.
One note: I
will not be wagering on the teams that have over 65% of the bets
according to covers contests.
0
The basis is simple. If there is a "large" difference between the
opening line and the fanmatch line on kenpom.com, I will side with
Vegas.
System rules:
If the line is between 0 and 4, a large difference is 2.5 points. 4.5 to 8, a large difference is 3 points. 8.5 to 12, a large difference is 3.5 points. 12.5 to 15.5, a large difference is 4 points. 16 and up, a large difference is 5 points.
One note: I
will not be wagering on the teams that have over 65% of the bets
according to covers contests.
Good job Beav. I got the same picks running it here. I cannot believe I am about to place a wager on Towson, Prairie View and the f&cking Citadel of all places.
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Good job Beav. I got the same picks running it here. I cannot believe I am about to place a wager on Towson, Prairie View and the f&cking Citadel of all places.
New to actually register, however been following covers for years, and in particular, your work in this thread over the past few months. I have run the stats on this, every way to Sunday, and the Saturday anomolies make zero statiscal sense whatsoever in regards to there being an actual trend associated with it (other than it is a Saturday??).
With that said, one thing I have noticed that seems to make some statistical sense, is that there are plays where KenPom is similar to Sagarin and plays where they are not. About 80% of them are the same, however on the 20% where KenPom would be a play, and Sagarin would not be a play, the system is hitting only 43%.
You mentioned yesterday that KenPom tended to have Wisky rated too high so to tread lightly, so I wondering if along with over 65% public action, if checking against Sagarin is not another method to tweak the system. I pulled down Maryland, Oakland, TAMU, and Ind. State on Satruday for that reason, which saved me some money (and the TAMU winner might be considered lucky).
I know many toss in their two cents with regards to tweaking, however I wanted to mention this considering the basic philosophy is that Vegas is better at capping than a computer, or more specifically, a computer programmed by a stat geek alone. Anyway, I will continue to track this as a possible tweak and toss in my findings as we proceed.
Thanks again for your work on this. Good stuff to say the least!
0
New to actually register, however been following covers for years, and in particular, your work in this thread over the past few months. I have run the stats on this, every way to Sunday, and the Saturday anomolies make zero statiscal sense whatsoever in regards to there being an actual trend associated with it (other than it is a Saturday??).
With that said, one thing I have noticed that seems to make some statistical sense, is that there are plays where KenPom is similar to Sagarin and plays where they are not. About 80% of them are the same, however on the 20% where KenPom would be a play, and Sagarin would not be a play, the system is hitting only 43%.
You mentioned yesterday that KenPom tended to have Wisky rated too high so to tread lightly, so I wondering if along with over 65% public action, if checking against Sagarin is not another method to tweak the system. I pulled down Maryland, Oakland, TAMU, and Ind. State on Satruday for that reason, which saved me some money (and the TAMU winner might be considered lucky).
I know many toss in their two cents with regards to tweaking, however I wanted to mention this considering the basic philosophy is that Vegas is better at capping than a computer, or more specifically, a computer programmed by a stat geek alone. Anyway, I will continue to track this as a possible tweak and toss in my findings as we proceed.
Thanks again for your work on this. Good stuff to say the least!
The problem of not playing on Saturday's is that now that there have been some off ones probably what will happen is you will lay off and it will hit...
My theory is always ride it out and use good money management...(2%) or (3%) of bankroll always on every pick and no more...
It's like trying to time the stock market...some people swear by it, but In my experiences I've always done best being conservative with risk staying in at all times and riding out the bumps...
In the end everyone has to make up their own mind on which way suits them the best...
So I would say have somone in charge of posting the plays on Saturday's and everyone can decide for themselves on how they want to play (or not play) them...
Again I would like to thank beaver for the time and effort he has put into this, and for bringing it to the board's attention in the first place...
PB.
0
The problem of not playing on Saturday's is that now that there have been some off ones probably what will happen is you will lay off and it will hit...
My theory is always ride it out and use good money management...(2%) or (3%) of bankroll always on every pick and no more...
It's like trying to time the stock market...some people swear by it, but In my experiences I've always done best being conservative with risk staying in at all times and riding out the bumps...
In the end everyone has to make up their own mind on which way suits them the best...
So I would say have somone in charge of posting the plays on Saturday's and everyone can decide for themselves on how they want to play (or not play) them...
Again I would like to thank beaver for the time and effort he has put into this, and for bringing it to the board's attention in the first place...
New to actually register, however been following covers for years, and in particular, your work in this thread over the past few months. I have run the stats on this, every way to Sunday, and the Saturday anomolies make zero statiscal sense whatsoever in regards to there being an actual trend associated with it (other than it is a Saturday??).
With that said, one thing I have noticed that seems to make some statistical sense, is that there are plays where KenPom is similar to Sagarin and plays where they are not. About 80% of them are the same, however on the 20% where KenPom would be a play, and Sagarin would not be a play, the system is hitting only 43%.
You mentioned yesterday that KenPom tended to have Wisky rated too high so to tread lightly, so I wondering if along with over 65% public action, if checking against Sagarin is not another method to tweak the system. I pulled down Maryland, Oakland, TAMU, and Ind. State on Satruday for that reason, which saved me some money (and the TAMU winner might be considered lucky).
I know many toss in their two cents with regards to tweaking, however I wanted to mention this considering the basic philosophy is that Vegas is better at capping than a computer, or more specifically, a computer programmed by a stat geek alone. Anyway, I will continue to track this as a possible tweak and toss in my findings as we proceed.
Thanks again for your work on this. Good stuff to say the least!
Can you post your spreadsheets for this analysis. It would be invaluable to some of us working out a "better mousetrap."
Thanks
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Quote Originally Posted by RB24:
New to actually register, however been following covers for years, and in particular, your work in this thread over the past few months. I have run the stats on this, every way to Sunday, and the Saturday anomolies make zero statiscal sense whatsoever in regards to there being an actual trend associated with it (other than it is a Saturday??).
With that said, one thing I have noticed that seems to make some statistical sense, is that there are plays where KenPom is similar to Sagarin and plays where they are not. About 80% of them are the same, however on the 20% where KenPom would be a play, and Sagarin would not be a play, the system is hitting only 43%.
You mentioned yesterday that KenPom tended to have Wisky rated too high so to tread lightly, so I wondering if along with over 65% public action, if checking against Sagarin is not another method to tweak the system. I pulled down Maryland, Oakland, TAMU, and Ind. State on Satruday for that reason, which saved me some money (and the TAMU winner might be considered lucky).
I know many toss in their two cents with regards to tweaking, however I wanted to mention this considering the basic philosophy is that Vegas is better at capping than a computer, or more specifically, a computer programmed by a stat geek alone. Anyway, I will continue to track this as a possible tweak and toss in my findings as we proceed.
Thanks again for your work on this. Good stuff to say the least!
Can you post your spreadsheets for this analysis. It would be invaluable to some of us working out a "better mousetrap."
New to actually register, however been following covers for years, and in particular, your work in this thread over the past few months. I have run the stats on this, every way to Sunday, and the Saturday anomolies make zero statiscal sense whatsoever in regards to there being an actual trend associated with it (other than it is a Saturday??).
With that said, one thing I have noticed that seems to make some statistical sense, is that there are plays where KenPom is similar to Sagarin and plays where they are not. About 80% of them are the same, however on the 20% where KenPom would be a play, and Sagarin would not be a play, the system is hitting only 43%.
You mentioned yesterday that KenPom tended to have Wisky rated too high so to tread lightly, so I wondering if along with over 65% public action, if checking against Sagarin is not another method to tweak the system. I pulled down Maryland, Oakland, TAMU, and Ind. State on Satruday for that reason, which saved me some money (and the TAMU winner might be considered lucky).
I know many toss in their two cents with regards to tweaking, however I wanted to mention this considering the basic philosophy is that Vegas is better at capping than a computer, or more specifically, a computer programmed by a stat geek alone. Anyway, I will continue to track this as a possible tweak and toss in my findings as we proceed.
Thanks again for your work on this. Good stuff to say the least!
This would be good info to have...I will be interested to see your results
0
Quote Originally Posted by RB24:
New to actually register, however been following covers for years, and in particular, your work in this thread over the past few months. I have run the stats on this, every way to Sunday, and the Saturday anomolies make zero statiscal sense whatsoever in regards to there being an actual trend associated with it (other than it is a Saturday??).
With that said, one thing I have noticed that seems to make some statistical sense, is that there are plays where KenPom is similar to Sagarin and plays where they are not. About 80% of them are the same, however on the 20% where KenPom would be a play, and Sagarin would not be a play, the system is hitting only 43%.
You mentioned yesterday that KenPom tended to have Wisky rated too high so to tread lightly, so I wondering if along with over 65% public action, if checking against Sagarin is not another method to tweak the system. I pulled down Maryland, Oakland, TAMU, and Ind. State on Satruday for that reason, which saved me some money (and the TAMU winner might be considered lucky).
I know many toss in their two cents with regards to tweaking, however I wanted to mention this considering the basic philosophy is that Vegas is better at capping than a computer, or more specifically, a computer programmed by a stat geek alone. Anyway, I will continue to track this as a possible tweak and toss in my findings as we proceed.
Thanks again for your work on this. Good stuff to say the least!
This would be good info to have...I will be interested to see your results
Good job Beav. I got the same picks running it here. I cannot believe I am about to place a wager on Towson, Prairie View and the f&cking Citadel of all places.
Haha I know...I sent my plays into my local and his reply was simply, "WTF?"
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Quote Originally Posted by Bobcat36:
Good job Beav. I got the same picks running it here. I cannot believe I am about to place a wager on Towson, Prairie View and the f&cking Citadel of all places.
Haha I know...I sent my plays into my local and his reply was simply, "WTF?"
I will have to ytd totals updated shortly...I just wanted to get the official plays out there for everyone to see. I like that madduxsports website for opening lines, I'm going to try using them for a while.
Also, I think we found out that saturdays have hit at about 45% this season and they were not profitable last season either....it may be time to think about not playing the system on saturday's. Any thoughts on this???
Official Monday Plays:
William and Mary +11 (HDN) James Madison +11.5 (RDT) Towson +13 (RDA) Santa Clara -1 (HFA) Citadel +9.5 (RDT) Prairie View -5.5 (HFT)
Considering that all plays total are about 55%, and Saturday plays are 45%, then wouldn't that make all of the days (minus Saturday), hit at around 65%?? There's the tweak we've been looking for
0
Quote Originally Posted by beaverfan23:
I will have to ytd totals updated shortly...I just wanted to get the official plays out there for everyone to see. I like that madduxsports website for opening lines, I'm going to try using them for a while.
Also, I think we found out that saturdays have hit at about 45% this season and they were not profitable last season either....it may be time to think about not playing the system on saturday's. Any thoughts on this???
Official Monday Plays:
William and Mary +11 (HDN) James Madison +11.5 (RDT) Towson +13 (RDA) Santa Clara -1 (HFA) Citadel +9.5 (RDT) Prairie View -5.5 (HFT)
Considering that all plays total are about 55%, and Saturday plays are 45%, then wouldn't that make all of the days (minus Saturday), hit at around 65%?? There's the tweak we've been looking for
New to actually register, however been following covers for years, and in particular, your work in this thread over the past few months. I have run the stats on this, every way to Sunday, and the Saturday anomolies make zero statiscal sense whatsoever in regards to there being an actual trend associated with it (other than it is a Saturday??).
With that said, one thing I have noticed that seems to make some statistical sense, is that there are plays where KenPom is similar to Sagarin and plays where they are not. About 80% of them are the same, however on the 20% where KenPom would be a play, and Sagarin would not be a play, the system is hitting only 43%.
You mentioned yesterday that KenPom tended to have Wisky rated too high so to tread lightly, so I wondering if along with over 65% public action, if checking against Sagarin is not another method to tweak the system. I pulled down Maryland, Oakland, TAMU, and Ind. State on Satruday for that reason, which saved me some money (and the TAMU winner might be considered lucky).
I know many toss in their two cents with regards to tweaking, however I wanted to mention this considering the basic philosophy is that Vegas is better at capping than a computer, or more specifically, a computer programmed by a stat geek alone. Anyway, I will continue to track this as a possible tweak and toss in my findings as we proceed.
Thanks again for your work on this. Good stuff to say the least!
Is there a quick way to check Sagarin? It is quite time consuming just to even search for the 2 teams and then to do the math. kenpom is effortless
0
Quote Originally Posted by RB24:
New to actually register, however been following covers for years, and in particular, your work in this thread over the past few months. I have run the stats on this, every way to Sunday, and the Saturday anomolies make zero statiscal sense whatsoever in regards to there being an actual trend associated with it (other than it is a Saturday??).
With that said, one thing I have noticed that seems to make some statistical sense, is that there are plays where KenPom is similar to Sagarin and plays where they are not. About 80% of them are the same, however on the 20% where KenPom would be a play, and Sagarin would not be a play, the system is hitting only 43%.
You mentioned yesterday that KenPom tended to have Wisky rated too high so to tread lightly, so I wondering if along with over 65% public action, if checking against Sagarin is not another method to tweak the system. I pulled down Maryland, Oakland, TAMU, and Ind. State on Satruday for that reason, which saved me some money (and the TAMU winner might be considered lucky).
I know many toss in their two cents with regards to tweaking, however I wanted to mention this considering the basic philosophy is that Vegas is better at capping than a computer, or more specifically, a computer programmed by a stat geek alone. Anyway, I will continue to track this as a possible tweak and toss in my findings as we proceed.
Thanks again for your work on this. Good stuff to say the least!
Is there a quick way to check Sagarin? It is quite time consuming just to even search for the 2 teams and then to do the math. kenpom is effortless
Good job Beav. I got the same picks running it here. I cannot believe I am about to place a wager on Towson, Prairie View and the f&cking Citadel of all places.
hahaha, yeah man, been following the system since week 2 or so. Dont like some bets, but those are the ones that usually hit. lol
Gl tonight fellas.
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Quote Originally Posted by Bobcat36:
Good job Beav. I got the same picks running it here. I cannot believe I am about to place a wager on Towson, Prairie View and the f&cking Citadel of all places.
hahaha, yeah man, been following the system since week 2 or so. Dont like some bets, but those are the ones that usually hit. lol
Maybe the problem is that people's expectations might bet too high...
The fact that the road/dog and away/home ratios have settled in at 55% shouldn't be surprising...it is to be expected with systems like these that have many plays per day...
I would suspect that the overall system will actually go down to around 53% eventually, with the road teams hitting around (54-55%) and the same for the dogs and away plays...
That's the norm for successfull systems with a lot of plays...and sometimes riding out the lows is very stressfull...
Handicappers that make maybe a play or two per day can hit at a higher percentage...but both forms of handicapping can be successfull with proper money management...
Good Luck All with yer plays tonight!
PB.
0
Maybe the problem is that people's expectations might bet too high...
The fact that the road/dog and away/home ratios have settled in at 55% shouldn't be surprising...it is to be expected with systems like these that have many plays per day...
I would suspect that the overall system will actually go down to around 53% eventually, with the road teams hitting around (54-55%) and the same for the dogs and away plays...
That's the norm for successfull systems with a lot of plays...and sometimes riding out the lows is very stressfull...
Handicappers that make maybe a play or two per day can hit at a higher percentage...but both forms of handicapping can be successfull with proper money management...
Maybe the problem is that people's expectations might bet too high...
The fact that the road/dog and away/home ratios have settled in at 55% shouldn't be surprising...it is to be expected with systems like these that have many plays per day...
I would suspect that the overall system will actually go down to around 53% eventually, with the road teams hitting around (54-55%) and the same for the dogs and away plays...
That's the norm for successfull systems with a lot of plays...and sometimes riding out the lows is very stressfull...
Handicappers that make maybe a play or two per day can hit at a higher percentage...but both forms of handicapping can be successfull with proper money management...
Good Luck All with yer plays tonight!
PB.
You sound like someone who has their head on straight. I have a question about say a system like this. Flat bet or unit/kelly?
0
Quote Originally Posted by PitchBlack2011:
Maybe the problem is that people's expectations might bet too high...
The fact that the road/dog and away/home ratios have settled in at 55% shouldn't be surprising...it is to be expected with systems like these that have many plays per day...
I would suspect that the overall system will actually go down to around 53% eventually, with the road teams hitting around (54-55%) and the same for the dogs and away plays...
That's the norm for successfull systems with a lot of plays...and sometimes riding out the lows is very stressfull...
Handicappers that make maybe a play or two per day can hit at a higher percentage...but both forms of handicapping can be successfull with proper money management...
Good Luck All with yer plays tonight!
PB.
You sound like someone who has their head on straight. I have a question about say a system like this. Flat bet or unit/kelly?
You sound like someone who has their head on straight. I have a question about say a system like this. Flat bet or unit/kelly?
"Trabs9" has been working a Kelly application to this system but it's very new - like a week new.
I know in the past PitchBlack has advocated a weighted betting system for this....which now that I think of it led to the Kelly suggestion from last week (or end of the week before).
0
Quote Originally Posted by tep:
You sound like someone who has their head on straight. I have a question about say a system like this. Flat bet or unit/kelly?
"Trabs9" has been working a Kelly application to this system but it's very new - like a week new.
I know in the past PitchBlack has advocated a weighted betting system for this....which now that I think of it led to the Kelly suggestion from last week (or end of the week before).
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