Spreadsheet is cool Bailey, thanks for doing it. I had Niagra as +3 (covers betonline opening number) but when I go to vegasinsider.com it actually did open at -2. Literally 2mins later it was a -3. So it did open at -2 and it a play according to the system. I have PS and Iowa too. (really hate the Iowa bet I just dont see it as a good spot for them, but that usually means its a good bet then...haha)
Thanks for the hard work fellas, sorry I wasnt much help yesterday. I was at work and was busy from 2p-2a. Looks like a nice bounce back Saturday after last Saturday. Good Luck today.
Spreadsheet is cool Bailey, thanks for doing it. I had Niagra as +3 (covers betonline opening number) but when I go to vegasinsider.com it actually did open at -2. Literally 2mins later it was a -3. So it did open at -2 and it a play according to the system. I have PS and Iowa too. (really hate the Iowa bet I just dont see it as a good spot for them, but that usually means its a good bet then...haha)
Thanks for the hard work fellas, sorry I wasnt much help yesterday. I was at work and was busy from 2p-2a. Looks like a nice bounce back Saturday after last Saturday. Good Luck today.
Referring to JRivers old post and Iowa's line today. Up to the point rivers made the post the big ten was 11-4 bets made, but dogs of 10-14.5 are 10-18. This makes me a bit of unsure to make the play or not, but 19 and 11.5 is a big difference so I may side w/ Vegas......
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Referring to JRivers old post and Iowa's line today. Up to the point rivers made the post the big ten was 11-4 bets made, but dogs of 10-14.5 are 10-18. This makes me a bit of unsure to make the play or not, but 19 and 11.5 is a big difference so I may side w/ Vegas......
TG, I get the feeling that you're starting to fall prey to all the filters that are being thrown out here. The system was designed to take the thinking out of it. With rivers analysis and the thrill score filter there are conflicting signals being given and I think it important to keep it simple. The jriver analysis, while detailed and painstakingly put together, doesn't have enough of a sample size in any one conference to be meaningful. The favorites vs. dogs analysis might be big enough. Once you start following different filters in combination you have to start handicapping the games which IMO is the kiss of death if you are following a system. You need to establish the parameters you are going to follow and stick with them. You can't choose what filters are more important than others if you're going to look at all of them IMO.
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TG, I get the feeling that you're starting to fall prey to all the filters that are being thrown out here. The system was designed to take the thinking out of it. With rivers analysis and the thrill score filter there are conflicting signals being given and I think it important to keep it simple. The jriver analysis, while detailed and painstakingly put together, doesn't have enough of a sample size in any one conference to be meaningful. The favorites vs. dogs analysis might be big enough. Once you start following different filters in combination you have to start handicapping the games which IMO is the kiss of death if you are following a system. You need to establish the parameters you are going to follow and stick with them. You can't choose what filters are more important than others if you're going to look at all of them IMO.
I appreciate your input Kirby, but for instance on a day like Saturday when there are about 30 games I do not plan on playing all the games. I like to play favorites the covers public is 50 50 on and yesterday I loved Washington b/c the line was moving away from Kenpom, a Pac 12 game, and a 4.5 pt underdog............Since that worked out so well I need to start getting back to the basics of the system. I appreciate the comment bro
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I appreciate your input Kirby, but for instance on a day like Saturday when there are about 30 games I do not plan on playing all the games. I like to play favorites the covers public is 50 50 on and yesterday I loved Washington b/c the line was moving away from Kenpom, a Pac 12 game, and a 4.5 pt underdog............Since that worked out so well I need to start getting back to the basics of the system. I appreciate the comment bro
Also, concerning the Iowa game you have to remember that Kenpom is very high on almost all Big 10 teams, I'd have to say Wisconsin is 1st and then Indiana. When Indiana played Nebraska on the road Kenpom had Indiana by 10 while the line opened @ 4.5 and eventually moved down to 3. I'm not sure if the Iowa spread is an easy pick (which it very well could be) or the Kenpom system showing favoritism. Any thoughts on that Kirby?
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Also, concerning the Iowa game you have to remember that Kenpom is very high on almost all Big 10 teams, I'd have to say Wisconsin is 1st and then Indiana. When Indiana played Nebraska on the road Kenpom had Indiana by 10 while the line opened @ 4.5 and eventually moved down to 3. I'm not sure if the Iowa spread is an easy pick (which it very well could be) or the Kenpom system showing favoritism. Any thoughts on that Kirby?
Iowa's a qualifier but I'm playing them 1H. Seen too many road dogs give it up like a crackw****. If they're not covering at the half they're probably not going to come back in the 2H to cover the game but who knows.
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Iowa's a qualifier but I'm playing them 1H. Seen too many road dogs give it up like a crackw****. If they're not covering at the half they're probably not going to come back in the 2H to cover the game but who knows.
Kirby I am still working on a master spreadsheet that will give us a better idea of how well your thrill score filter works...its going to take me a few days, but I am chipping away at it.
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Kirby I am still working on a master spreadsheet that will give us a better idea of how well your thrill score filter works...its going to take me a few days, but I am chipping away at it.
All I have is the play, whether or not it was thrill > or < 30 and result. I'd be happy to go back and do the legwork on those dates for the rest of the info if you want. Will save you some time.
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All I have is the play, whether or not it was thrill > or < 30 and result. I'd be happy to go back and do the legwork on those dates for the rest of the info if you want. Will save you some time.
Haha damn when I was doing the games late last night I had Indiana State as a play, but when Kenpom updated, it was no longer in range........Good looks Bailey!
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Haha damn when I was doing the games late last night I had Indiana State as a play, but when Kenpom updated, it was no longer in range........Good looks Bailey!
I got the same as Bailey. As always we will be looking for any update tomorrow. Also, I have pulled the first 4 weeks out of the old threads and have put the results up on this site:
kenpomvsvegas.blogspot.com
Once I put the other weeks up I will go back and figure out the Home/Road Fave/Dog Away/Toward for the earlier weeks before we were tracking that.
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I got the same as Bailey. As always we will be looking for any update tomorrow. Also, I have pulled the first 4 weeks out of the old threads and have put the results up on this site:
kenpomvsvegas.blogspot.com
Once I put the other weeks up I will go back and figure out the Home/Road Fave/Dog Away/Toward for the earlier weeks before we were tracking that.
All I have is the play, whether or not it was thrill > or < 30 and result. I'd be happy to go back and do the legwork on those dates for the rest of the info if you want. Will save you some time.
Anything would be much appreciated. This shit is time consuming...I'll post what I have tomorrow and you can add to it if you get the time
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Quote Originally Posted by kkirby99:
All I have is the play, whether or not it was thrill > or < 30 and result. I'd be happy to go back and do the legwork on those dates for the rest of the info if you want. Will save you some time.
Anything would be much appreciated. This shit is time consuming...I'll post what I have tomorrow and you can add to it if you get the time
I got the same as Bailey. As always we will be looking for any update tomorrow. Also, I have pulled the first 4 weeks out of the old threads and have put the results up on this site:
kenpomvsvegas.blogspot.com
Once I put the other weeks up I will go back and figure out the Home/Road Fave/Dog Away/Toward for the earlier weeks before we were tracking that.
Thanks flyer, you da man....but this link isn't working for me. Is it working for everyone else?
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Quote Originally Posted by flyerlax06:
I got the same as Bailey. As always we will be looking for any update tomorrow. Also, I have pulled the first 4 weeks out of the old threads and have put the results up on this site:
kenpomvsvegas.blogspot.com
Once I put the other weeks up I will go back and figure out the Home/Road Fave/Dog Away/Toward for the earlier weeks before we were tracking that.
Thanks flyer, you da man....but this link isn't working for me. Is it working for everyone else?
1-2 tonight I believe, Iowa tried to make it interesting. haha, Ive went over the numbers for tomorrow too. Just waiting for an update too. I ll check back in the am.
I ll try and help with what I can, wife works 2nd shift, so I pretty much have the baby from 3-midnight. Hard to go over figs with the baby running around.
I appreciate everyones hard work.
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Not for me either.
1-2 tonight I believe, Iowa tried to make it interesting. haha, Ive went over the numbers for tomorrow too. Just waiting for an update too. I ll check back in the am.
I ll try and help with what I can, wife works 2nd shift, so I pretty much have the baby from 3-midnight. Hard to go over figs with the baby running around.
Nice work on the spreadsheet. Noticed that you've added NBA. Was thinking the same thing myself; in theory the system should work for the NBA (any sport for that matter). I've been bouncing around this site: https://www.thepredictiontracker.com/
using the different rankings (someone posted it to the thread earlier), just haven't settled on a ranking system that i like:
Nice work on the spreadsheet. Noticed that you've added NBA. Was thinking the same thing myself; in theory the system should work for the NBA (any sport for that matter). I've been bouncing around this site: https://www.thepredictiontracker.com/
using the different rankings (someone posted it to the thread earlier), just haven't settled on a ranking system that i like:
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